I've gone through "my" "data", and here's how I think the West playoff picture shakes out.

• Race for first: Detroit, Dallas (both ~113 pts)
• Third: Flames (~105 pts)
• Fourth: Nashville (~103 pts)
• Dead Heat for Fifth: Edmonton, Colorado, Anaheim (~97/98 pts)
• One Makes, One Misses: Los Angeles, Vancouver (~94/95 pts)
• Decent Team but No Dice: San Jose, Minnesota
• Alone in 12th: Phoenix
• Finally: C-Bus, Chicago, St. Louise, probably in that order

Minnesota and Phoenix have virtually no chance. They need to earn about 1.4 pts/gm the rest of the way to hit 95 points. It's possible, but know that only Ottawa, Carolina, and Detroit have performed that well so far this season.

It's apparently still the CW to portray San Jose as coming on strong, but it's just not happening. They were in 12th the day they traded for Thornton, and they're 12th today. They had that awesome 5 game stretch against (mostly) the East right after the trade, but they're not making up enough ground since.

I still like Calgary to win the NW by a comfortable margin. I assume the Oil will keep doing what they're doing. I'm pretty confident Anaheim is in; they had 18 points thru 20 games this season, and have 40 in the 31 since. This pace will put them in.

The biggest question is probably Vancouver: just how bad will these injuries kill them? They're even worse than Calgary on the road, but can they keep winning at home? If they can be an average team, i.e. earn 1.1 pts/gm, over the final 30, they probably just squeeze in the playoffs. If not... oh, what a shame that would be... by the way, since their 8-1-1 start, the Canucks have earned 46 pts in 42 games, which makes [uh, carry the one] about 1.1 pts/gm. How big is that playoff cushion, indeed.

Throw your own predictions in the comments, won't you?

Get yer stinkin' paws off our hosting bid.

If Calgary really wanted to host non-Olympic events, they would have considered it in the past, like, say, Edmonton has, many times.

Last week Matt pointed out correctly that we here at BoA are terrible linkers, and he highlighted a few other blogs that are great reads. It's not that we are obsessed with Alberta hockey . . . well, at least not exclusively obsessed with it . . . it's just that we're lazy hacks.

Anyway, I have a few more blogs to which I'd like to give a shout out. Some of them are already widely appreciated, but I'm not one of those guys who immediately starts hating bands when they sell more than 12 records -- if they're good they're good.

• Razor with an Edge - The Razor already gets some pretty good love, but still not enough for my money. As much as it hurts me to link to anything associated with the Dallas Stars, the Razor is terrific. Witty, bitter, edumacational. He does it all.
  
  
• James Mirtle - another one of the big guys, but I like the cut of his jib. Fun lists, nice mix of long and short posts, great original content. I'm also a big fan of his weekly looks at Canadian university athletes, for whom I have an awful lot of time. I'm still waiting for him to answer this question, though.
  
  
• mc79hockey - Madcrutch started off with some heavy duty stats--poisson distributions, crazy rebound numbers, etc. -- and has recently branched out to include some other material. The man knows his numbers and his hockey. Definitely worth a read -- but put aside some time, because there is lots in there. Note to Mirtle: this post in particular is worth a read.
  
  
• sidearm delivery - is the only source for news on the Hartford Wolfpack. Do I care about the Wolfpack? Not a whit. But his writeups are entertaining and are a great way to keep up to date on the US college scene. He also seems to have an interest in Russian hockey, which is always nice to read about.
  
  
• Odd Man Rush - This was becoming one of my daily favourites until he had to interrupt his writing. I wish him the best and I hope that he comes back soon.
  
  
• Sports Matters - not exclusively hockey, but exclusively fun material. And a snazzy new banner to boot. If Abboud would only update us more frequently on the Glorious Green, it would be perfect.
  

Obviously those are only a few of the great reads out there. There are lots more in our blogroll on the left, and we'll probably highlight some of them at a later date--of course there are those granddaddies that need no introductions like Hockey Rants, and Off Wing Opinion, and Hockey Pundits. There is also the rotating, semi-regular Carnival of the NHL, which is always worth a look.

Check 'em all out. Recieve a free muffin by mentioning this coupon.

Yesterday Sacamano took a look at the Oilers' prospects over the final 30 games of the season. 96 points should indeed be good for at least the 8th playoff spot.

For the Flames to qualify for the playoffs, then, they need 30 points over their final 30 games. That should be doable: presently 23 of the 30 teams in the league are gaining a point per game on average.

What about 1st place in the Northwest? I'm going to guess 105 will do it. The actual number may be a little higher or (more likely) lower, but I'm pretty sure if any NW team earns 105 points, they're going to win the division. That means the Flames need 39 points over their final 30 games (something like an 18-9-3 record). That's right about the pace they're on now. Can they keep it up?

• 17 of 30 are at home: that's definitely good considering their 18-4-2 home record right now.
• 5 back-to-backs: that's bad. The first is a home-and-home with Colorado, so no disadvantage there, but the other four end with a team coming off of 1, 2, or even 4 days rest.
• Strength of opponents: 14 of 30 are against non-playoff teams in today's standings, 16 against playoff teams, so it's pretty representative of the schedule as a whole. 12 games are against the NW division: based on the season to date, that's a big plus

Key stretches:

March Road Trip: a ridiculous tour through the Central timezone where the Flames play the 7th and final game of the trip on the afternoon of Day 11. (Note that would have been left unsaid a week ago: we should probably have a backup goalie we're happy with for that.)

The next 5 games before the Olympic break. Four home games (CBJ, VAN, ANA, STL) and one roadie (SJS). 7 or 8 points in these games will cushion the NW lead, and make the post-Olympic schedule (which I should note is brutal for all teams) seem a lot less daunting.

The sharp newish blog Abel to Yzerman is hosting Carnival of the NHL #18: The Sawchuk Edition. It's focused on goaltending, and he covers our Carnival of the Oilers' Goaltending Woes nicely, and makes special mention of the comment thread. Which reminded me, this is too good to leave in the comments:

I'm not sure I can find an analogue for Conklin's sheer horribleness at this point. It's gotten so bad that I know he's got to be fighting an injury, but I actually can't think of one that is serious enough to account for his slow reaction times and lateral movement. Spine cancer? Bubonic plague?

Head over and check it out. And a quick reader bleg: anyone know why our traffic has jumped so much in the past few days? We've gone from a consistent 200-ish per day, for months, to over 400. It doesn't appear to be from any particular link, or a glut of Google searches. Were we mentioned on TV/radio/print? Or, are we suddenly just a lot more interesting recently, and the same ten people are visiting that much more? I need answers.

Razor kills me:

I bet you noticed that the "Thank You Fans" has been removed from American Airlines Center ice. Why? I guess it was time? Actually most teams removed theirs long ago. The Stars thanked you long time.

Read the whole thing, including this broadcaster's plea that never specifically occurred to me:

Will the NHL ever get it through their thick, screw television, skulls that it might benefit the fan who is watching at home to hold the game from re-commencing for another 10 or 15 seconds after a goal is scored? I don't know of any other league that would spend as much time and energy finding ways to increase scoring and then treat the scoring of goals as a nuisance. A hard 45 seconds, that's all we ask.

One of Matt's favourite things is to catch a glimpse of hockey humanity in the TSN Message boards.

Here ya go:

• wow!! way to LOSE to a minor league caliber line-u . . .
• The Flames should be embarassed, disgusted & a . . .
• A few days ago some Flames fans were gloating when . . .
• So where's all those people that were ripping on V . . .
• What . . . Was that? I will tell you what it was . . .
• Iginla just isn't the dominating player he once wa . . .
• Pathetic!!! Absolutely awful. The worst team in t . . .
• WOW! Calgary loses to the LOWLY Blues. How much wo . . .
  

Speak truth to power, friends.

Terrible ice conditions? Check!
Terrible officiating? Check!
Terrible opponent? Check!
Terrible game by Kipper? Check!
Terrible game, period? Check!
Terrible result? Uh, check, except for one of the alternatives.

Flames finish their roadtrip 2-2-1, which improbably is their second-most successful one of the year. All 5 Northwest teams have now played 52 games, with 30 to go. Standings:

• CGY - 66
• VAN - 63
• EDM - 62
• COL - 61
• MIN - 54

Did I mention what a terrible game that was tonight?

There it is folks. It took until Game 52 of the season, but I think we might have finally hit the Jarmoe Threshold: a Flames fan has actually shown some impatience (mild though it is) with Iggy.

Ethan Moreau has possibly broken his leg -- playing pick-up basketball.

Don't these guys have riders in their contracts about this sort of thing? My high-school volleyball coach almost had an aneuryism when I sprained my ankle playing pick-up hoops and had to miss the first round of volleyball playoffs. I can't imagine how K-Lowe took the news.

So I'm thinking to myself earlier, "Gee, the Flames have had a lot of lousy road trips this season; I'm surprised they're even at .500". So I looked into it a bit more.

Calgary has played 27 games on the road so far this season (12-12-3). Their road schedule has consisted of two 5-game roadtrips, three 4-game roadtrips (not incl. tonight), and five single-game roadtrips (counting the consecutive games v. VAN on Dec. 23 & 26 as two trips, since they came home for Christmas in between). They have not played a single 3-game or 2-game trip.

I bring this up because there is one very favourable aspect of the Flames' road record thus far; call it the "playoff" context. Five times the Flames have left Calgary to play a single opponent; they're 4-1-0 in those games. (On the 4 & 5 game trips, they're 8-11-3).

The Oilers' road schedule (17-8-4) has been of an entirely different nature. They've played one 7-game roadtrip (4-3-0); no 4-, 5-, or 6-game roadtrips; three 3-game roadtrips (6-1-2); four 2-game roadtrips (5-1-2); and five 1-game roadtrips (2-3-0).

I'm not hacking on the Oilers here; they have more road wins than any team in the league. Also, all three of their losses in those 1-gamers came on very short trips to face a certain superior team at the top of their division. They're a very good road team, plain and simple.

But it is a relief to note that the Flames are at their road best on these mini-trips, which are the only kind there are when the games really matter.

For the 2nd time in three games, the Flames are taking on a team that has just dumped good players for no immediate return.

You never really know how a team will react in this situation. I essentially don't believe in the idea of Coach as Game Day Motivator, but this may be one of those few times where the coach actually earns his money in that respect.

On Thursday the Hawks traded Jaro Spacek somewhere, and their D really sacked up that night and shut the Flames out. Now, the Blues have traded their top two centres.

I'm not too distressed about the Weight trade. I wasn't really expecting the Flames to acquire him, and I'm not sure how much it would have helped anyway. Sillinger going to Nashville, however, worries me a bit.

He can't be that great; ten freaking teams have now let him go. However, he has 22 goals and he's playing damn well. I know this because he's killing me in my hockey pool. I'm in a twenty team league, and I'm presently 2nd, behind David Johnson. Roughly, he's got more good goalies and better D, but I have better forwards. That is, with two notable exceptions; Alfredsson, and Mike Sillinger. Sillinger's points, PP points, FO wins, and SOG have been killing me; the guy's been getting 10 fantasy points a game for weeks now. I don't think there's much doubt that the Predators just got better.

All that said: the Blues have been the worst team in the league this season, and now, they're worser. They have a grand total of three (3) wins this season against playoff teams: their two thumpings of Vancouver, and a 3-2 win over Detroit about 10 weeks ago.

Calgary must--must--win tonight. I'll predict a 4-1 victory. No idea if Kipper will be in net, or if it's Sauve's chance to redeem himself under extreme pressure (though not applied by the Blues, presumably). Go Flames.

According the the Amazing Zorak, 96 points gets you into playoffs in the West (only 87 needed in the East).

The Oilers are currently sitting at 62 points with 30 games remaining. If Zorak's projected cutoff is correct, the Oil only need to go .567 over the stretch to get in. If you look at the current points/game (as Zorak does) then the Oil are projected to get 98 points, but I think there is good reason to believe that they will be better than that.

First, their schedule certainly favours them:

• 18 of the 30 games are at home -- I'm still calling this an advantage despite the fact that the Oil have been better on the road than at Rexall.
• Only two of those games are back to back, and the second one is against Chicago (April 7).
  
• More than half the games (16) are against non-playoff teams (in the current standings), including 3 against St.L, 2 against Columbus, and 4 against those sucks from Vancouver--who the Oilers have owned this season.
  
• The goaltending can't be worse than it was early on--and shows signs of being better even without any trades.

Key Stretches:

The next 6 games before the Olympic break. 5 home games (CLB, VAN, ANA, MIN, STL) and 1 road game (COL). A run here sets them up very nicely.

End of March: A brutal stretch starting with a four game road trip (SJ, CBJ, MIN, MIN) followed by a tough three game home stand (CAL, DET, VAN), followed by a back-to-back road series in VAN then a game in COL, followed by MIN, LA , CAL, PHO at home.

Last night ended one of the most entertaining Oilers' road trips in recent memory.

Here are the highlights:

Game 1: The Oilers were looking tired and discombobulated until Smytty pulled the old stick tap on JS Giguere, who then went bananas giving the Oilers half a period of powerplay time--much of it 5 on 3. Four third period goals later and the Oil have a 6-3 come from behind victory.

Game 2: Another come from behind win, with Torres, D-Vo, and Moreau all cracking the seal on their recent scoring slumps.

Game 3: The Chris Freaking Pronger ties the game with 0.7 seconds left in regulation off a faceoff with 2.2 seconds remaining to force overtime. Hemsky and D-Vo fake Cujo into the popcorn stands, and Quimby stones all but one Coyote for the SO win. Unbelievable.

Staois Hole in One: The Oilers had their annual Phoenix golf tournament on this trip. After hacking his way to three straight double bogies, Staois holes a 3-wood on the fourth hole. Apparently the cheer from the team was huge. He might have just made himself untradeable. Can you trade a guy who sinks a hole in one in the team tournament? His quote: "All that is left in my wallet is receipts."

Transtrom and Spacek trades: After much smoke, it turns out there was fire. K-Lowe snags two very capable d-men for spare parts. In the case of Cross, it was a bonus addition by subtraction. I hope that both Rita and Cross find their games elsewhere. Both are capable but needed a change of scenery. Tarnstrom was a bit tentative in his first game as an Oiler, but Spacek looked great.

Ray Ferraro called this one "an improbable win". No doubt.

As Cosh noted in the comments to the Game Day post, the Orbs of Power did it again--scoring with less than a second remaining to force overtime. Then the Czechs and Quimby got it done in the shootout.

Pronger's goal actually came off of a faceoff in the Coyotes zone with 2.2 seconds remaining. Ferraro mentioned that in over 20 years of watching NHL hockey he has never seen that play actually work. I'm not sure I can agree. I'm positive I remember the Oil pulling it off a few years ago.

Despite the crazy way of getting it done, I'm going to say that the Oil actually deserved this win. They outshot the Coyotes and, to my eye, outplayed them for most of the game.

Cleary a stomach-punch loss for Phoenix and, even better, for all of the Calgary Fans out there who were no doubt watching the game and firing up their computers to leave nasty comments with 2.2 seconds remaining.

Quimby was solid again, especially in the shootout where he appears to be somewhat of a savant.

I'm on record saying that we should stick with M&M in net, and I'm reaffirming that position here.

The Oil are now the #1 road team in the league. Let's hope they can start to get it done at home over the next 3.

By the way, if anyone can help with the wacky formatting that seems to have beset this place, please drop me a suggestion in the comments. I screwed it up somehow by trying to put a table in the previous post -- but I don't have any clue how that would have affected the template, as it appears to have.

On a few occasions folks have asked about various phrases used around here--especially the etymology of 'Mayor Quimby'.

In response, I thought it might be a good idea to start putting together an Official Battle of Alberta Glossary. Naturally, I'm hoping to get as much help as possible from the wittiest contributors to this forum--i.e., You, our loyal and clever readers.

Speaking of glossaries, nothing beats Jim Rome's smacktionary. If you've never read it, I highly encourage you to put aside 30 minutes or so and go through it. Some hilarious stuff.

Currently our list is pathetically small and boring in comparison. I have faith that we can improve on this.

BofA	Definition/Etymology
Mayor Quimby	Nickname for Oilers' goalie Mike Morrison. Derived from his amazing Bostonian accent
Tommy	Nickname for Flame Kristian Huselius. Derived from his uncanny knack of scoring goals by pinballing the puck off of multiple bodies, sticks, etc. Explained in more detail here.
LeGG	Nickname for Oiler Georges Laraque. Georges is often referred to as BG on the net ("Big Georges") but someone (MikeW?) noted that it really should be in French.
Robimus Prime	Pleasure Motors from Covered in Oil coined this nickname for Oilers' prospect Robbie Schremp. Personally, I like Randy's "Popcorn" better, but they are both nice.
Orbs of Power	The secret to the Oilers' current success. Otherwise known as "Chris Prongers Balls", the orbs are often prominantly featured in Oilers Pay-Per-View broadcasts. Coined by Cosh. (Banished In Shame)
Jarmoe	The guy who is currently wearing #12 for the Flames. He looks like Iggy, he talks like Iggy, he draws Iggy's hugely bloated salary, but he sure doesn't play like Iggy.
Oilogosphere	The world wide collection of Oilers blogs. Coined by Madcrutch.
Phaneufed	To be kept away from the other team's star players. E.g., Darryl Sutter phaneufed Dion Phaneuf against the Edmonton Oilers by playing him exclusively against Michael Peca's line. First used by Vic Ferrari from IoF.

Preview

The Sun reports that Mayor Quimby gets the nod in goal, and that both Tarnstrom and Spacek will make their Oilers debuts tonight.

It's been a nice road trip so far (2-0) and tonight's game would seal the deal.

With the desert dogs having played 3 games in 4 nights, including last night, I see the Oil rolling over them.

Prediction: 5-1 (Stoll, Horc, D-vo, Tarnstrom, Bergeron)

The Flames play the Blackhawks this afternoon (1PM MST, RSN West) for the 4th and final time of the season. From today's Sun:

In Thursday's game between the Flames and Blackhawks, the United Center was half empty, as it will be today when they play the rematch.

The raucous atmosphere, which made going to a 'Hawks game of yesteryear an experience, is now gone.

"Very sad. It's still a hockey town, which is sad," Amonte said.

"People talk hockey and know hockey in this city. They are very knowledgeable about the game. They've just had a very bad taste the last few years and aren't supporting the team."

And from the There-Are-No-Coincidences Dept., did you see that Fox Sports piece naming Bob Pulford as one of the 10 Worst Execs in Sports?

Chicago is a magnificent hockey town. It has a rich tradition. The Blackhawks should stand among the NHL's elite franchises, given the size of their market and its potential revenue.

But Bill Wirtz, Michael Wirtz and their hockey man — Pulford — comprise the least progressive management team in the league...

[...]
The Blackhawks haven't won a playoff series since 1996. They have reached postseason play just once since 1997. The 2005-06 team is a disaster, too, and there is little hope for a turnaround any time soon.

The difference in on-ice success between the Detroit Red Wings and the Chicago Blackhawks over the past 10-15 years is entirely -- 100% -- attributable to the quality of their respective organizations, from ownership on down. There is not a single problem the Blackhawks have had in years that they can blame on anyone but themselves. As Tony Amonte says, it really is very sad.

But, the Hawks have a "fair chance" to compete, and their owner can make a few bucks for his trouble, which is all any fan wants, right?

[The photo, and many other delights, are at the website for the book Career Misconduct, a (cough) pretty critical look at Bill Wirtz.]

Ferguson likes to insist this is all part of a plan: And if the plan is to miss the playoffs, it appears to be working.

And yet if someone from the Leafs' organization punched Steve Simmons in the face, they'd be the one arrested and jailed. What a crazy world.

We don't see this often, but neither the Flames nor the Oilers are in action tonight. The late HNIC game is Vancouver at Colorado, and fans in Alberta are united in one wish: let's get this game settled in regulation, please.

The Olympics are coming up on us fast. Here's the Battle of Alberta schedules up until the break:

Calgary

• @ CHI (1/29)
• @ STL (1/30)
• v. CBJ (2/1)
• v. VAN (2/3)
• @ SJS (2/6)
• v. ANA (2/8)
• v. STL (2/10)

Edmonton

• @ PHX (1/29)
• v. CBJ (2/2)
  
• v. VAN (2/4)
  
• v. ANA (2/6)
  
• @ COL (2/7)
  
• v. MIN (2/10)
  
• v. STL (2/12)
  

Obviously the schedule is fairly favourable for both teams; one tough-looking road game in 7 starts is OK. I think it's a solid prediction that if either team goes on a good run, as they should, they're just about locked in for the playoff. If they don't, it's going to be some nervous times all the way until mid-April.

The Onion - NHL Players Protest New Goaltending Penalty

NEW YORK—Less than six months since players returned from a yearlong lockout, hockey is once again in turmoil following last week's announcement that "goaltending," or attempting to obstruct a shot on goal or impede the puck's progress with one's body or stick, would become a two-minute minor penalty, a rule change that went into effect Monday. "Increasing scoring with rule changes and cracking down on obstruction is one thing," said Phoenix Coyotes goaltender Curtis Joseph, who claims his job is being banned by the league. "But to take a page from the NBA and just outlaw goaltending outright… Maybe it's just me, but I think that rule just plain goes against the spirit of hockey." Veteran NHL centers, forwards, and some defensemen took issue with Joseph's remarks, claiming he was still angry over being penalized seven times in the Coyotes' Monday night game against Dallas, in which Joseph had zero saves and lost 88-105.

I'm calling it now: Dion Phaneuf is going to the Olympics.

McCabe is probably out as the 1st replacement because of his groin. Special Ed is probably off the roster because of his groin. And Niedermayer is probably out because of his knee.

If all three skip the big roadtrip to Italy to rest and rehab, Canada needs to name two new defencemen to the roster, as well as (likely) one to the taxi squad in case of injury during the Games.

Already on the roster, assuming they stay healthy: Pronger, Regehr, Blake, Foote, Redden

The 2 or 3 new guys need to come off of the List of 81; the fellows who have been peeing in a cup for WADA for months, and are thus eligible for the Games. Here's who is left among the defencemen:

Adrian Aucoin, Jay Bouwmeester, Dan Boyle, Nick Boynton, Eric Brewer, Eric Desjardins, Scott Hannan, Barret Jackman, Kyle McLaren, Derek Morris, Dion Phaneuf, Chris Phillips, Sheldon Souray, Steve Staios, Brad Stuart

That's 15 names. Desjardins has a dislocated shoulder and is out. Morris has a sprained ankle and is out. Brewer has a separated shoulder and is out. Aucoin has a recurring groin problem, and is in and out (groin in and out - heh heh).

That leaves 11. Boynton and Souray can't be considered even remotely seriously based on their play this season. That leaves 9.

Going back to the five guys who are on the roster, you'll notice that only 3 of them have any business playing on the PP in a major international tournament; Regehr has only 6 points on the PP this season, and Foote has only 3. Here's the 9 potential additions on D, with their PP production (G/A/Pts):

• Jay-B (0/9/9)
• Boyle (3/10/13)
• Hannan (1/5/6)
• Jackman (0/1/1)
• McLaren (0/3/3)
• Phaneuf (10/14/24)
• Phillips (0/1/1)
• Staios (1/5/6)
• Stuart (5/7/12)

It's certainly possible that Pat Quinn will play a forward on the PP point at times, but it's unthinkable that they'll head to Turin without 4 qualified PP D-men. Phaneuf is clearly the huge favourite to fill this role, based on production: only Boyle and Stuart could even be considered.

In fact, Phaneuf and Pronger would probably be on the #1 unit. Pronger's the only (healthy) Canadian defenseman with more PP points than Phaneuf (6/21/27); you may also note that Phaneuf plays the same side and role does M-A Bergeron (with Pronger) on the PP, albeit a lot more productively.

A few other miscellaneous points in Farnsworth's favour: the Flames have only allowed 2 SH goals all season, and if you saw last night's highlights, I think you'll agree that the 2nd can be blamed pretty much 100% on Hamrlik. Also, he's only a year out of junior, and certainly fit for the 6-games-in-8-days schedule.

I think Phaneuf is the 1st addition, and Hannan is the 2nd. I hope Jovo and Niedermayer get well, but I think Canada is in good shape regardless. Make it so, Gretzky.

projection (Noun; psychiatry): a defense mechanism by which your own traits and emotions are attributed to someone else. Example:

As a friend of mine has pointed out, the problem with the Oil is a fragile psyche: when things are going poorly, we're entirely convinced we couldn't beat a team of retarded seals, and play as such. However, when things are going good, man, we could probably beat the Russian Fifth Calvary in a land war. We seem to have found our confidence again...

One thing we are (I am) pretty crappy at around here is linking and generally interacting with other hockey blogs. There's no slight intended, because there are quite a few which are really quite excellent. Below are five that (A) I enjoy a lot, and (B) haven't given a ton of recognition to; I invite my co-publisher to add his own if he sees fit. There's more, too, but this is a start.

Hockey Country
There is a sub-category of hockey blogs which are generally about following one particular team on a game-by-game basis, and this is probably the best of the bunch. When I read a blog about (say) the Ottawa Senators, I don't want to see AP game reports and recaps of the coach's press conferences; I want to see original takes based on the writer's own two eyes.

Chris McMurtry has found his own original format for rehashing Senators wins (usually), and it works well for him. He has his own (informed) opinions, and doesn't give much thought to the media's conventional wisdom (or the team's own statements) on who's good, who's bad, what's right, and what's wrong. Good on him.

Japers' Rink
Lots of Caps/Ocho content here, but JP also finds lots of other interesting NHL goings-on to link to. He also hands out the NHL trophies on a day-by-day basis, which is a terrific way for readers to keep up on what's up with the rest of the league. And handing out the Aiken Award for hapless performances is definitely inspired - it's enough to make a guy forgive him for the pop-up ads.

Vancouver Canucks Op Ed
I think everyone knows about the folks with the bookshop. The simplest way to describe their site is that they have a lot of fun writing it; ergo, it's a lot of fun to read. They're Canucks fans, but a good chunk of their items are about the NHL at large, including their famous Thursday Quote Sheet. It's generally very funny, and I suppose I should also mention that they have the best-looking hockey site there is.

Behind The Jersey
Call me a snooty MCP, but I would never have expected a hockey blog written by a 19-year-old girl to be readable, let alone interesting. More impressively, Christy's blog is probably the best one out there for appreciating the Game of NHL Hockey as a whole. It doesn't hurt that her home team has a lot of excellent and interesting veterans, but I frequently find myself reacting to her posts with, "Yep - hockey kicks ass."

Her regular "Behind The Blog" feature is original and inspired, and she also recently reminded me of this awesome quote:

"Aww, don't worry Doc. If that happens, I can always come back as a forward!" - Harold Snepsts after being advised by a doctor to wear a helmet to avoid brain damage

Read the whole entry; there's a bunch of beauties.

Covered In Oil
What can I say? I love their blog despite the fact that have little or no interest in their subject matter. It's quite possible that the three best writers in the hockey b***osphere are the three contributors to this site. I think I'd like their blog even if I hardly knew the first thing about hockey [shut up!].

The liberal use of boldface type; the stupendous metaphors; the clever post headers; the semi-comprehensible game ratings; and yes, the frustration at being on the wrong end of the name of this site: it all adds up to a fantastic read.

Bonus Up-and-Comer: Hello Hockey Fans!
Since we started this site, I've been looking for a Flames blog that consists of something more than the aforementioned off-the-wire game recaps, and it looks like frequent commenter MetroGnome might have the formula. Best of luck to you, sir: we're all depending on you here in the South.

1) "Dominek Hasek" gives his take on goalie interference on The Fan 960 morning show (~20s .mp3 clip).

2) The Stars' Jussi Jokinen is still perfect in shootouts (as is the team), and is clearly starting to feel pretty bulletproof:

"I've used the same move and the same shot on all my shootouts," said Jokinen, who is 7-for-7 using the backhander in shootouts. "So why change up on something that is working."

[...]
"I've used the same move on Budaj in a preseason and a regular season shootout this year," Jokinen said. "He might have known what's coming, but he never stopped any of them."

Dude: karma. He has had help, though: Sergei Zubov is a respectable 4-for-7, and Dallas has the 2nd-highest S/O SV% in the league. (They trail only Montreal; remember Crosby's S/O goal on Theodore that sent both the water bottle and Pierre McGuire about 15 feet in the air? Only S/O goal the Habs have allowed this year.)

3) Darryl Sutter explains himself:

"I'm a firm believer, if you have a clear-cut number-one goalie, he's a 65- to 70-game goalie in the National Hockey League. That's what the top guys do and they win 60 percent of their games," Sutter said. "Your backup goalie, at the most if you're healthy, is a 15-start guy and I expect him to win 10 games. If he's not, then I'm going to try somebody else.

"With Philippe, I believe your backup goalie should give you a chance to win every night, not a chance to lose, and I don't think we've got that this year.

"He's got to be our best practice player, he's got to be your hardest-working player, should be your most improved player if he's a young player. That's not an ask thing, it's a demand thing, that simple." [My emph.]

Man, he doesn't exactly leave room for a bunch of follow-up questions, does he? That said, my two cents is that he's playing with fire. If you're going to call out a guy that harshly (and half-fire him), you'd better be damn sure that the rest of your players see the same problems in Sauve as you do. Otherwise you seem capricious, and your credibility with the team starts on a downhill slide to CrapTown.

I guess I did volunteer.

Well, I went 3 for 7 on my game predictions for tonight. Why am I not upset?

Calgary got shut out by Chicago
Jarmoe put up some more big numbers: 0,0,-1, 2SOG, 2PM.
Vancouver lost
Nashville lost
Colorado lost
San Jose Lost
LA lost

Edmonton won.

I've also decided I'm very comfortable with the trades. I agree with everyone on Earth that the overabundance of d-men has virtually guaranteed that Lowe makes a move for a goaltender. It's a shame, really, because both Jussi and the Mayor have been playing pretty well the last few games. Quimby made at least 4 terrific stops at key moments tonight.

Ten years later, and he's still killing the Flames.

Confusing lede from the CP:

LOS ANGELES (CP) - The Edmonton Oilers hope they have found the offensive blue-liner they've been looking for after acquiring Dick Tarnstrom from the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday in exchange for forward Jani Rita and defenceman Cory Cross.

Huh? I thought their biggest problem was in goal. And of course, Kevin Lowe has been looking for a first-line centre for a long time; that's no secret.

Tarnstrom has only 10 points (5-5) in 33 games this season while sporting a minus-10 rating on the struggling Penguins.

This trade may work out well for the Oilers, or it may not: I don't know. What I do know is that it will frighten precisely none of Edmonton's conference rivals. (Any player that you're tempted to describe as "a poor man's Roman Hamrlik" will not have San Jose quaking in their skates).

Related--Mudcrutch put a nice post up last night (with a chart!), summarized by this quote:

I doubt that Jackman or Tarnstrom bring significant improvement. Lowe should really be pushing the goalie angle right now--everything else is just window dressing.

UPDATE, 1 hour later: Now there's something to get more worked up about! The Oilers have acquired cheapshotting scumbag Jaroslav Spacek from the Chicago Blackhawks. In related news, Flames forward Byron Ritchie remains out of the lineup with a sprained MCL.

Breaking News: Sports Illustrated has just discovered that Todd Bertuzzi was named to the Canadian Olympic Hockey team. And writer Richard Deitsch, in his "The Rant", is against it!

Ironically, the first sentence of his piece is, "Let's jump ahead a month." I've got a better idea, Richard: let's jump back a month, and then you can be one of the first 5,000 people in the sports media to express the exact same opinions you just wrote.

If you don't have a single original thing to say about hockey, then please: go back to covering tennis and steroid hearings.

OK, so he's a golfer, but I'm sure this applies to more than a couple of NHL players. And, it made me laugh.

Mickelson has earned many nicknames on the Tour, but our favorite is FIGJAM (F**k, I’m good—just ask me).

From GQ's "The Ten Most Hated Athletes" (ÞHockey Dirt)

I've been hurting my head for the past half-hour or so, spurred on by this TB post, trying to figure out how to satisfy everyone's complaints about the NHL schedule. Most people have one of these two complaints (and occasionally, both):

• Why can't every team play each other at least once? (Crosby & Ovechkin only showing up in my town once every three years sucks, etc.)
• Some divisions are much stronger than others (it punishes them in the regular season for no reward come the post-season, if they make it at all)

I've tried every permutation I can think of to come up with something elegant, and it's not happening, including switching to 4 divisions. In the end, I think the best solution (pending any expansion or contraction of the league) is a relatively minor tweak. It's also guaranteed to thrill precisely no one.

The NHL should increase the number of interconference games by 6, and decrease the number of intradivisional games by 6. This sounds a little convoluted, but it's really not that bad:

• Interconference: instead of Home vs. Division A, Road vs. Division B, and None vs. Division C, add 3 home games and 3 road games vs. Division C
• Intradivision: instead of 4 Home and 4 Road games vs. the other four teams in the division, play 3H/3R vs. two teams, 3H/4R vs. one team, and 4H/3R vs. one team

The change to the interconference schedule should (mostly) satisfy both fans and, ahem, "cost-conscious" owners. Each team would play 8 road games against the other conference instead of 5; in other words, one 3-game roadtrip would be across the country instead of in adjacent states/provinces. The transportation would be more expensive, but the hotels would be about a wash; every club should be able to handle the costs.

Also, (1) your team would play every other team every year, and (2) every team would come to your home arena at least every other year, instead of every third year. I think this would make most fans happy.

The change to the intradivisional schedule should (mostly) mollify those of us concerned about the unbalanced conference schedule. Calgary & Edmonton would continue to play the Hawks/Blues/Jackets 12 times a year, but Nashville and Detroit, instead of facing those 3 teams 24 times, would face them 19 or 20 times. Also, playing division rivals 6 or 7 times instead of 8 is a decent balance, as I see it: that's still plenty of games in which to develop & maintain the rivalries that most of us enjoy, but not as many as now, where literally, in your next 10 games, you can expect to play every team in your division. Again.

Math:

• Present schedule: teams play 44.4% of their conference sked v. their own division, 55.6% v. the other divisions
• Matt's Proposal: teams play 39.4% of their conference sked v. their own division, 60.6% v. the rest
• Total Balance: teams would play 28.6% (4/14) of their conference sked v. their own division, 71.4% (10/14) v. the rest

Translation: whatever ill or unfair effect you think the unbalanced conference sked has on the playoff race, my proposed changes would reduce it by about a third.

And don't forget, the unfairness issue would further be reduced by playing all the teams in the other conference (e.g this season, Toronto had to play the whole NW Division on the road, while Atlanta didn't have to play the NW at all).

As always, I'd be interested in hearing feedback on this.

It's a good night for Western Conference hockey fans.

With so many of the teams playing each other, there is reasonable potential for some jigging of the standings. On tap:

Minnesota v Nashville
Dallas v Colorado
Calgary v Chicago
Vancouver v Detroit
Anaheim v San Jose
Phoenix v St. Louis
and, of course, Edmonton v Los Angeles

Buffalo Bob's Predictions: Minnesota, Dallas, Calgary (ugh), Vancouver, San Jose, St. Louis, Edmonton.

Wow, Sutter doesn't screw around. One bad game and he ships the Flames' backup goalie outta town. I guess you can do that when you have a good starter.

Hey Madcrutch, didn't you ask for Sauve yesterday?

In other news, Captain Canada Ryan Smyth pulled the ole stick tap on Giggy causing the Ducks netminder to go bananas.

Mrs. Sacamano was watching Lost so I was only getting the game during commercials, but every time I flipped back JS was skating out of his crease to hit someone, and the Oil were on a 5 on 3. It's a darn good thing, too, because the first two periods were so miserable I didn't even mind not watching.

Don't forget to eat your haggis, neeps 'n' tatties tonight while watching the game.





The piper image was shamelessly stolen and modifed from here (via the surprisingly upbeat HF).

Season Record: 25-18-6	Season Record: 21-16-10

Under the category Why the Flames' 7-4 Loss to Colorado Wasn't as Agonizing as it Could Have Been:

$200 - What is "Chuck Kobasew had a hat trick"?

$400 - What is "The Flames division record is still 13-4-2, and they get the Avs 4 more times, 3 of which are at home"?

$600 - What is "First game Kerry Fraser reffed all year, and as it turns out, I actually missed the guy"?

$800 - What is "Our goalie skated 190 feet to start a fight with Hardy Astrom, and may end up suspended for a game because of that instigator-in-the-last-5-minutes rule"?

$1000 - What is "My good mood after a win like last night's takes more than 24 hours and 7 GA to fade away"?

Also, the Canucks have been busy softening up the Central Division for us, and the Flames are still leading the division, with a game in hand to boot.

Also, how is it possible that the Mile High City has what seemed like the worst ice in the league?

Interleague play in the NHL is over. There were 150 games played; the West won 79 (17 in OT/SO) and the East won 71 (19 in OT/SO). That is, the West went 79-52-19; the East went 71-62-17.

The most lopsided Div. vs. Div. result was the Southeast vs. (surprise!) the Central, with a record of 19-3-3. For the West, the most lopsided result was tied: the Pacific went 16-8-1 vs. the SE, and the Northwest went 16-8-1 vs. the once-mighty Northeast.

The East's best interleague teams were Carolina (7-2-1, 15 pts), Tampa Bay (7-3-0, 14 pts), and New Jersey (6-2-2, 14 pts). Their worst teams were Pittsburgh (1-9-0, 2 pts), Toronto (2-8-0, 4 pts), and Boston (3-5-2, 8 pts).

The West's best interleague teams were Vancouver and San Jose (both 9-1-0, 18 pts) and Calgary (7-2-1, 15 pts). Their worst teams were St. Louis (1-7-2, 4 pts), Minnesota (4-5-1, 9 pts), Edmonton (3-3-4, 10 pts), and Columbus (5-5-0, 10 pts).

Just in case you were wondering.

The Flames take on the Avalanche tonight in Denver (RSN West, 7PM MST).

David Aebischer has been playing pretty well lately, so it's time for another Hardy Astrom whammy! He had a sequence of saves in the 1st period of Saturday's losing effort v. the Wings that has to be seen to be believed (about the 0:57 mark of the video clip).

The Avs won 8 straight before losing to the Chicago Winning Streak Killers and then Detroit. A Flames win tonight will vault them ahead of Dallas/LA into the 2nd seed, and depending on the Blue Jackets' home effort against the Canucks, could widen their NW Division lead.

And hey--let's not let last night's convincing win in the Battle of Alberta go by the wayside quite yet. Terry Jones has a nice piece in the Edmonton Sun, with an uncharacteristically observant lede:

The body language said it all.

"These guys own us. They own the puck. And they own us."

In the second period, you could see it from the cheap seats.

And it's true. They do.

Robin Brownlee, also in the EdSun:

Too often flat and without emotion and intensity were the Oilers, who didn't muster nearly enough fight in the latest chapter of a Battle of Alberta that's fast becoming a one-sided slap down.

Pucker up, boys.

Scott Cruickshank in the Herald also has a good lede, as well as a fine example of the ornery Sutter I mentioned the other day:

An incensed Jarome Iginla is something to behold.

The tough part, however, will be trying to find a brave soul to bloody his mouth every night.

[...]
"It doesn't uplift me, it doesn't uplift our team, he's a great player," shrugged Calgary pilot Darryl Sutter. "Jarome's energy level was better tonight than it was two nights ago. And his energy level looked like it was better than their best player's."

You think, coach? And finally, the TSN message boards, always good for capturing the spirit of the thing. Here's the first 10:

• Raider2: Any doubts about iggy now???...he not only scores ...
• phaneuf1: Well I always enjoy seeing this result. good game ...
• venivedivici: Say what you want about Calgary playing a boring ...
• jobe41off: great game cant wait to hear tonites excuses from ...
• clairm: every day i watch sports just to see if lowe wil ...
• DAshwood: True grit Flames hockey once again prevails over t ...
• hazop: The Oil were disorganized and lack luster all nigh ...
• Eojinlim: Was there any question Iginla was going to pick up ...
• iginlanets52: IGINLA LIGHTS UP OILERS!!! Gotta love that headlin ...
• yukonwolf: Calgary doesn't play boring hockey, they play Sutt ...
• sabres77: What a terrible game. The Oilers got outplayed eve ...

Sweet.

That...was a thumping. I see the Flames were outshot by ten, so the temptation might be to say Kipper was the difference. Not so much.

Kiprusoff was very solid, but this was just one of those games where the better team won. Iginla got irritated early, and then popped a couple of goals. The Flames cycled the puck well in the Oilers' end. They picked up loose pucks, and won battles. Tonight at least, we saw two teams headed in different directions.

If you watched the game, who would you say was the best Oiler? Torres was pretty good, and seemed to have more pluck than anyone else. Smyth was OK; Stoll was OK. Hemsky and Horcoff were pretty invisible. I barely noticed my man Peca, after that 1st period sequence where he headed (helmeted?) the puck and then gave Leopold a hard two-hander on the back. And the defensemen: in a big, home, divisional game, how can your D be so timid? I don't recall a single big hit delivered by an Oilers' D-man, let alone a big play that could have helped their team's result.

With Vancouver's loss to the worst team in the NHL (again), the Flames are now alone in 1st in the Northwest with a game in hand. Also, the Flames have now earned 9 points this season in the Battle of Alberta, the Oilers have earned 4, and there's two games left. By at least one measure, the Flames just clinched the season series.

The Flames now have bigger fish to fry, trying to move up from the 3rd seed in the conference. The Oilers had better sack up, as that comfortable margin over Anaheim and San Jose is narrowing, and rapidly.

It was a pretty good night for Calgary Conservatives, of which I am nominally both but strictly neither. Congratulations to Stephen Harper: I guess the next time I see the Prime Minister in a Flames sweater, I'll know he means it.

"Both events are televised, but only one is worth watching." Indeed. Not convinced? Here's the Battle of Alberta and the federal election, head-to-head:



As you can see, The Battle of Alberta is a clear 6-3-1 winner.

I'm predicting a positive result for Team Red in both the game and in Edmonton Centre (and in the spirit of that riding, don't forget to keep stuffing our ballot box!).

Goooooooooo Flames!

[P.S. This blog is not a politics-free zone per se; however, we require every political comment to be tied to hockey in some way, regardless of how tortured or lame that connection may be. Fair warning.]

Well, it is that time of year again.

The time when competing ideologies run smack into one another. When the forces of light meet the forces of dark. When our fearless leaders put their credibility on the line. No, friends, we're not talking about the Federal Election; we're talking about the infinitely more compelling Battle of Alberta. Both events are televised, but only one is worth watching.

It is the sixth time these teams have met this year, with the 3-2 edge going to the Calgarians.

The Flames are 5 up in the standings and currently sit atop the NW division. For Oilers fans, the difference between 3-down vs 7-down after tonight is stark.

The good news is that the Oilers have lit up Kiprusoff for 5 goals in each of the last two games. Sadly, the Flames scored 6 in the New Year's Eve game. I don't see the horsemen scoring that many tonight. I don't know who gets the nod in net for Edmonton - probably the Mayor - but either way I'm confident that the goaltending will be there.

For all you lurkers out there, the time for fence sitting is over; it's time to stuff the ballot box: Oilers or Flames.

Game Prediction: 4-2 Oilers, with an empty netter. Laraque extends his scoring streak and gets the game winnah!

Election Prediction: a whopping 71% of eligible BoA readers will support the Oilers

I apologize to all of the Oilers fans out there for abandoning you over the last few days. I unexpectedly went skiing in Jasper over the weekend.

Although during junior high and high school I was a skiin' fool, this was only the third time I've strapped on the boards in the last 15 years. Needless to say the day after skiing (i.e., today) I was totally unable to get out of bed, nevermind try to find an internet cafe in Jasper to chime in about the Phoenix game.

I come back today to find about a million Flames posts. Talk about kickin' a guy when he is down, Fenwick

Never fear, however, because I am back and pumped about tomorrow night's BoA.

Go Oil!

Chris Drury and the Buffalo Sabres are in Calgary tonight. Drury got a bit of bad rap in Calgary; he was widely thought to be very unhappy here, but from the accounts of people who'd be inclined to confirm such a thing, it was simply that he's just not much of a smiler.

However, that in no way mitigates the fact that he was pretty damn disappointing. When the Flames acquired him from Colorado for Derek Morris, most of us were expecting him to increase his production, being an unquestioned first-line #1-PP-unit guy. He responded with a 23-30-53, -9.

In retrospect, I'm pretty sure that it was the expectations that were out of whack, not his performance. He's a 25-goal guy, and his sublime knack for scoring big goals with Colorado was more a function of his fine team than a special "clutch" gene.

He's getting quite a bit of gloss for the Sabres performance this year. He's an awesome faceoff guy, although his +/- rating of -8 on the season is none too impressive. Perhaps he's become more of an active, vocal leader; I don't know--I'm just glad he's contributing whatever it is he's contributing somewhere else. (Fun, eyebrow-raising fact: he wears the number 23 as a tribute to the pennant-less Don Mattingly.)

The Canucks beat Buffalo on Thursday by sawing-off on PP goals, beating them at even strength, and getting pretty good goaltending. That sounds to me like a formula that Calgary can execute. 4-2 for the good guys. Go Flames.

Flames Olympians come up clean in drug testing - calgaryflames.com main page.

I know Berard tested positive yesterday, but isn't this a dog-bites-man story? Also, the sense of relief conveyed by such a headline is kind of, weird -- it seems more suited for a family blog, where Mom posts that Kimmy Passed Her Driver's Test!

Nice piece by George Johnson on Darryl Sutter at ESPN.com:

His is the face on the franchise. Not Iginla's. Not Kiprusoff's. Make no mistake where the power lies, either. Other people may have fancy titles and swell write-ups in the official media guide, but the buck starts and stops in only one place. Banana republic dictators have less sway than this guy.

Sounds about right. His success speaks for itself, and I'm pretty sure that's the only way he wants to be judged.

I don't write about Sutter much, mainly because I have the same attitude. Team success means he's doing a good job. If the team fails, that means he's not. And plus, he's got enough people in the regular Flames media (like George Johnson, for example!) more than willing to toot his horn.

My personal favourite thing about Darryl Sutter, though, is definitely listening to his press conferences and media scrums on the radio. It's actually a little surprising that he's so well-liked by the media, because it always sounds like he has a strict policy of never agreeing with them about anything.

To be more clear: he always starts every answer by rejecting the premise of the question. If anyone has tape of Sutter answering a question by starting with the word "Yes", or "Yeah", or anything remotely affirmative, please give me a heads-up. He never sounds pissy about it (although 'ornery' would be fair), but the beginning of every answer is essentially a rebuke of the questioner.

If you asked him today, "Do you think Jarome Iginla has gotten untracked?", or some such variation, he'd respond that the goals aren't the issue, it's something about hard work, taking care of the little things, putting himself in positions to be successful, etc. etc. If you're hoping to hear him comment about the importance of Jarome Iginla scoring goals, you'll need to ask him a somewhat unrelated question about goaltending, or the powerplay.

Once you get used to it, it's pretty entertaining.

Since it's a little tricky to grasp what's going on in the standings (particularly the playoff races) when the teams have played a different total number of games, here's the NHL standings, baseball-style:



(If anyone knows of a site that shows the standings this way, on a continuously updated basis, please drop a comment.)

Today in the Globe & Mail, Rob Blake talks about the injury problems with Team Canada's defensive corps. It's obviously a concern, yet for some reason, the article doesn't go into what will happen if McCabe and Jovocop still have their groin problems in (say) two weeks.

Put another way (since I haven't read this spelled out anywhere else), Dion Phaneuf may yet be a Canadian Olympian. Candidates to replace Special Ed on the team (and McCabe on the taxi squad) would include Phaneuf (28 pts, +3), Dan Boyle (30, -7), and Scott Hannan (12, -3). Past that, we're looking at guys like Steve Staios and Derek Morris (and M-A Bergeron?). Stay tuned, folks.

Nice win by the Flames last night. It wasn't as close as the 3-2 final score would indicate; the Flames forwards dominated a depleted Montreal defense most of the game.

Unfortunately, the first period was marred by some brutal, brutal officiating. There were 5 minor penalties called in the first 7 minutes of the game, and as far as I'm concerned, all five were ridiculous. There was a charge that wasn't a charge (Iginla); a hook that wasn't a hook (Streit); a trip that wasn't a trip (Phaneuf); a crosscheck that was harmless enough that Iginla maintained control of the puck (Souray); and a hold that wasn't a hold (Leopold).

The first call that the refs got right was fighting majors for McCarty and Souray; I guess that's hard to cock up. Unfortunately for Souray and the Habs, he also got a match penalty for deliberate attempt to injure, as McCarty was cut badly by some brace that Souray had around his wrist. (My understanding is that the call was by the book, although the infraction is a misnomer, since it most certainly was not deliberate. Souray will not be suspended).

TV play-by-play guy Roger Millions noted after the Phaneuf non-trip (I paraphrase): "It used to be that referees erred on the side of caution. That's not the case anymore." Why not? Even if you are the world's biggest supporter of the harshest imaginable obstruction crackdown: why not? There is absolutely no logical connection between (A) calling more stickwork & interference as fouls and (B) being sure these fouls were actually committed before blowing the whistle.

The first ten minutes of last night's game was the kind of thing that makes a guy wonder about the NHL's true motives: are they trying to crack down on cheating, or are they just trying to have more powerplays? I hate, hate, hate dwelling on this crap, but here's one fan's opinion: hockey officiated that way is unwatchable.

Related: I just finished reading a nice book that came out in September called (wait for it), "The Battle of Alberta". I'll have more to say about it in the next while, but there's one graf I wanted to share that has some relevance to this discussion.

Again, the book was written before this season started. I'd italicize some parts, but I don't think any emphasis is needed. From the section on the 1984 Smythe Division Finals, pp. 123-124:

While Sather complained about the refereeing and the lack of calls on all the hacking and whacking, [Charlie] Huddy says the games were actually made all that much better because the referees used their judgement and let the iffy plays go. That's a big difference from the game today, where the two-referee system can see each team get up to 10 powerplays per game. "Back then, the refs let us get away with so much stuff," recalls Huddy. "That has changed, now; the refs see and call everything. Back then, they let us play. And that helped create some of the great battles; like, for me, trying to clear big bodies like Peplinski and (Joel) Otto away from our net."

Just to drive Peter crazy, I'm going to start another thread on the Oilers goaltending situation to report that da Bruins have apparently claimed goalie Craig Anderson off of waivers from Chicago.

I don't like that. How can we unload Conky on them if they already have a terrible backup?

Season Record: 24-17-5	Season Record: 21-17-7

It's always fun to play the Montreal Canadiens, and they come to town tonight for a 7PM MST start (Sportsnet West).

For the second time in a week, the Flames play a team hot off of canning their coach. The Islanders rode that adrenalin for a whole game, following their win over the Flames with an 8-1 crushing by the Canucks. Montreal is marginally more talented than NYI, so the 2-game high they've had since Julien got fired seems about right.

I think the Habs will be totally hapless tonight. I think that equates to (A) about a 4-1 Calgary victory, and (B) Gainey and Carbonneau, just in case they're having "thoughts", remembering that the Habs weak record in the past 2 months hasn't just come from a lack of effort & inspiration. There's some loft issues there too.

For the view from the other side (and this should really be a feature of our game previews), check out Sisu Hockey. Here's something I didn't know:

So, the Montreal Canadiens now have a collection of eight Selke trophies behind the bench: Gainey has four, Carbo has three and Jarvis one. I pity the forward (Mike Ribeiro) who backchecks lazily.

No kidding. And I think Tommy is due for some more pinball wizardry. Go Flames.

Hot topic we got here.

Tom Benjamin:

I expect the Rangers are doing whatever they can to move him but it's hard to imagine any team stupid enough or desperate enough to live with terminal immaturity.

Mmmm, wait a second.

Don't the Oilers desperately need a goaltender?

Mudcrutch:

That's what drives the goalie decisions at this point? "He hasn't sucked in this location recently."

Mike W:

I guess the Oilers didn't play all that well last night against the Senators, especially our goaltenders, most specifically Ty Conklin, who must be run out of town immediately.

Chris McMurtry:

Craig MacTavish made a comment recently about his team having the potential to be the best club in the league if not for their flaws, and though he didn’t elaborate as to what he thinks those flaws are, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know who he was talking about. I’m sure Ty Conklin’s ears were burning...

Jes Golbez:

How can the Oilers still be in the playoffs ahead of the Minnesota Wild despite having the worst goaltending this side of Armenia? Jussi Markkanen had a decent start and then got worse, and now Ty Conklin is back and he just continues to suck.

The Puck Stops Here:

Their regular goalies Jussi Markkanen and Ty Conklin have been among the worst regular goalies in the NHL so far this year. In fact the strongest string of good games has come from one-time NHL player of the week Mike Morrison... If Edmonton could add a legitimate starting goalie without damaging the rest of their core, the team could be dangerous. Until then, they are likely an also ran.

And probably still my favourite bit, Sacamano:

"Yep, Conky is either dead or is on his way to market."

Wow. It looks like you can include videos right into blogger now.

Cool.

Maybe we should put that Flames "Red Hot" video on a constant loop.





This is the end of the test.

I haven't played a video game since they added a second button, so I'm not entirely sure what this is all about.

When did Ference, Primeau, Cullen, Fleury, Varada (when did he learn to throw kidney shots?) Thornton (with the C no less!) join the Oilers?

Lest the Flames fans feel left out, here is a pretty amazing video of life at Cowtown U during the 1980's. An asstounding time, indeed!

It is getting desperate in Oilerland.

For a while now there has been rampant (and apparently unfounded) rumours about the Oil trying to acquire Theodore from Montreal--perhaps for Le GG.

Now the tin-foil hat crowd has noted that Jordan Sigalet has been recalled to Boston from the Providence Bruins, and that Team Implosion starting goaltender Andrew Raycroft didn't practice with the team this morning.

Now maybe he is injured/sick/whatever, but maybe all of this is the prelude to a trade. Bruins fans seem to think so. Oilers fans are pretty divided in their opinion of whether or not Raycroft is actually an upgrade on anything we already have.

Thoughts?

What do you mean last night's loss wasn't the fault of the goaltenders?

Forget it. I'm not buying it. Afterall, not one of our goaltenders scored any goals last night--not one.

It has to be their fault, because I'm not sure whether or not I can take it if we start losing games on the back of weak play by the rest of the team.

And suddenly, the 9th-place San Jose Sharks are only 6 points behind the Oilers with 3 games in hand. Oh, me-oh-me-oh my! Also, being .500 at home is not a marker of a guaranteed playoff team.

If the only the poor EIG had had, say, $4M to spend this past offseason to acquire a top goalie. Damn runaway player salaries! It is to weep.

[P.S. I have to go "earn" a "living" for a few days, and appearances here will be sparse. I expect Peter, jhuck, Dirk, and the rest of you good Flames fans to ensure the loo-sahs don't take it over with their depraved rantings about MacT and the goalies. Late.]

I know I've been a little stats-obsessed lately, but this question needs answering, and it should be of interest to every hockey fan. So I'll bring it up again:

Why is (per minute) even-strength scoring up by 20% while special teams scoring is not up at all? It confounds!

It's easy to justify why some rule change (or changes) is improving even-strength scoring. It's less easy, though still possible, to imagine why some change is helping ES scoring more than Special Teams scoring. But it is extremely difficult to explain why Change X (Y, Z, etc.) is helping ES scoring, but is not helping PP scoring whatsoever.

To take one example only, one might tend to attribute an increase in scoring overall this year to the smaller goalie equipment. But why isn't PP scoring up? If smaller goalie equipment really is making a difference, then some other change is negating that difference on the PP. What rule (or other) change is harming the PP? It confounds!

Your help is needed. In the comments to TB's post on this topic, a number of ideas have been tossed out, and mostly dismissed (judge for yourself).

One idea has been that there's been a big increase in ES goals in the seconds after a PP ends, because there has been so many more PPs. I did what I could to analyse this, and figured out that Maybe this accounts for 1-2% of the 20% increase. No dice.

Tom's idea, which is still under review, is that ES scoring is up, but PP is not, because of the handful of rules that reduce ES stoppages (but have little effect on PP stoppages): the no-change icing rule, tag-up offsides, no redline, etc.. He's guessing that this is resulting in (A) wearier players who can't get a change and (B) more bad line changes.

This seems kind of plausible, but his intuition says that these problems would be exacerbated in the 2nd period when it's even harder to get to the bench. Not so, say the numbers. ES/PP time is not readily available broken down by period, but overall scoring is actually up less in the 2nd period than it is in the 1st and 3rd. (1st: +28%, 2nd: +13%, 3rd: +24%).

Your help is needed. It confounds!

[Postscript: as previously noted, special teams scoring actually is up by 8.5% this season. But if you correct for the astounding 134% increase in 5-on-3 scoring, it is unchanged.]

The definition of Serendipity, hockey version:

(N.) When your best player scores a hat trick on Hat Giveaway Day

As Red & Black Hockey notes (click through for a photo):

Roughly 18,000 hats were handed out, but not nearly that many went home.

Both Sacamano and I have sacrificed hats with considerable sentimental value in the same situation, and for my money, there's probably no experience more satisfying in a regular season game.

This Hart Trophy race is seriously interesting, too. Eric Staal is the best player on the top team in the league (today), and is T4th in goals and 7th in points. Add the fact that James Mirtle was the only non-Canes-fan in the world to pick them for the playoffs, and it's bloody tough to argue against him.

Jagr is leading the league in points, again on a team who almost no one (almost! ow! my arm doesn't reach back that well...) picked for the playoffs, and has the Rangers in a very sound position. Alfredsson and Forsberg have made excellent cases for themselves. Ilya Kovalchuk is leading the league in goals and has dragged his team into 7th place in the East, and climbing.

In the West, you probably have to look at the goaltenders (Thornton is the only guy in the West in the NHL Top 10 scorers). Turco, Vokoun, and Kipper will all be strong contenders if their team wins their division, or especially the Conference. (And really, if San Jose keeps pushing and makes the playoffs, then Joe Thornton deserves consideration himself).

It'll be a dogfight. It also looks like there's going to be 16 pretty good teams in the playoffs; you'd have to be a sucker to bet on a frontrunner with short odds.

Season Record: 24-16-5	Season Record: 28-13-3

Inspired by Matt's response to Cosh's comment below, all comments regarding the Oilers today must be in the form of a letter to the Oilers Brass. Various suggestions for them to perform difficult acts of bodily contortion are strongly encouraged.

Dear Sirs: I am writing you to express . . .

Can someone out there shed some light on Mac-T's thought process? I don't think he is of below average intelligence, but I simply cannot understand why Conklin continues to get chances in big games. Why is it that Jussi has not had a back to back start since the Detroit game? Honestly, I don't get it.

At least Jussi put one stretch of good games together -- when he was allowed to play a few in a row. Now? It is just some random number of periods for each goalie with seemingly no plan.
I know that there are no goaltenders available, and any goaltender that becomes available will require a serious overpayment, but cripes, what else is there to do?

I say we sacrifice Shremp, Pouliot, Ken Lowe, and one of the Campbell Conference banners.

Well, the entree was very satisfying. We're #1! etc. etc...

The dessert looks pretty promising too. Conky lets one in two minutes in; we're all stunned.

As Tyler commented in the previous thread (re: Bob and Harry, but it's still applicable in the broad sense): "It's going to be a long night."

UPDATE, before hitting post: Whoops! MAB scores - tie game! And Pronger needs to keep his elbows down; it's harming his Lady Byng chances.

The question was posed to Jacques Lemaire, and for 15 seconds the speechless Wild coach reacted by putting his head down, rubbing his chin and squinting his eyes like he was trying to untangle the world's trickiest trigonometry application.

"That's a good question," Lemaire said, shaking his head.

The question was posed to several around the Wild locker room after Friday's hourlong practice, and the query triggered almost identical head-scratching reactions from players.

How the heck is it possible that the Northwest Division-leading Calgary Flames, winners of three in a row over the Wild heading into tonight's game at Xcel Energy Center, have 11 more points (55 compared with 44)?

After all, the Wild has scored six more goals (122 to 116) than the Flames. The Wild has given up six fewer (107 to 113).

The Wild has the 11th-best power play, seven spots higher. The Wild has the top-ranked penalty kill, 18 spots higher. Manny Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson have a 2.39 goals-against average, .07 better than Miikka Kiprusoff and seldom-used Philippe Sauve.

Leading scorers Brian Rolston of Minnesota and Jarome Iginla of Calgary have 18 goals apiece, but Rolston has nine more points.

On paper, the Wild is better.

In reality, the Wild is not.

That's Michael Russo in the hometown Star Tribune, in advance of the Wild hosting the Flames tonight (6PM, no TV). It's the 4th meeting of the year, and the home team has won all three. Minny won the season opener 6-3, with Calgary winning the next two 3-0 and 3-2 (the latter on a sweet, sweet 3rd period comeback).

Hamrlik is still out, so Richie Regehr will draw in again. By 8:00, the Flames should be putting the finishing touches on a 2-goal win. That's the entree; then for dessert we have the Oilers trying haplessly to stop the Senators on HNIC.

A win tonight sends the Flames back to Calgary for two home games in pretty good position. It'll happen. Go Flames.

Season Record: 24-15-5	Season Record: 29-10-3

Have you seen the schedule for men's hockey at the Olympics? It's more like the schedule for a concert tour--or a baseball team. Here's Canada's schedule: all the men's teams all play on the same days.

• Wed. Feb. 15 - 1PM local (5AM MT) - v. Italy
• Thu. Feb. 16 - 8PM locat (noon MT) - v. Germany
• Sat. Feb. 18 - 330PM local (730AM MT) - v. Switzerland
• Sun. Feb. 19 - 9PM local (1PM MT) - v. Finland
• Tue. Feb. 21 - 430PM local (830AM MT) - v. Czech Republic
• Wed. Feb. 22 - Quarterfinals (start at 430PM local)
• Fri. Feb. 24 - Semifinals (start at 430PM local)
• Sat. Feb. 25 - 830PM local (1230PM MT) - Bronze Medal Game
• Sun. Feb. 26 - 200PM local (6AM MT) - Gold Medal Game

I guess four-line depth, as well as a decent backup goalie, is probably more important than I realized.

Also of concern--especially in Western Canada--for those of us who blanch at the idea of cheering Canada to the Gold drinking coffee: what to do? Hit the bottle before the sun is up, or start at 11:00 on Saturday night and just stay up really late? These are the things that keep me awake at night.

I've gone off on a bit of a tangent with the stat-crunching I did Monday, trying to get a better sense of the importance of special teams. I'm going to try to walk through some numbers here that aren't overly complicated, but trying to grasp their meaning does make my head hurt a bit.

First, we have even strength scoring. The average ES GAA amongst the 30 NHL teams is about 2.65. Obviously, the average Goals For Average (GFA) is also 2.65, and the average ES Goal Differential (GD) is 0.00; since every ES goal that one team scores is given up by another.

Second, the average SH GAA (or PP GFA, same diff) is about 6.75. So the difference between the average team's likelihood of surrendering a goal while SH, compared to ES, is about 4.10 (6.75-2.65). This is basically the measure of PP scoring.

Third, the average PP GAA (or SH GFA) is about 0.70. So the difference between the average team's likelihood of surrendering a goal while on the PP, compared to ES, is about -1.95 (0.70-2.65). This is basically the measure of SH scoring.

These second and third items, when combined, are the average Goal Differential on special teams: 4.10 minus (-1.95) = 6.05. Meaning: the theoretical exactly average team, which would expect to tie every game if it were played all at ES, would win every game by 6 goals if they played them all on the PP.

(The other (only?) slightly interesting aspect of this stat is the breakdown of Why the PP is Good: roughly two-thirds of the reason is the increased chance of scoring a goal, and one-third is the reduced likelihood of allowing one.)

Now of course, no team is exactly average, so when you break this stuff down by team, there are some interesting outlying numbers. Let's look at the best and worst teams in each "category", plus the Flames and Oilers numbers.

Difference between ES GAA and SH GAA:

• Average: 4.10
• Smallest: Minnesota: 1.58
• Biggest: Atlanta: 5.73
• Flames: 5.47
• Oilers: 4.01

Minnesota has a fantastic PK relative to their decent ES numbers. Atlanta has an atrocious PK, so even though their ES numbers are kind of crappy, they have the biggest difference. The Oilers are average in both categories, so their difference is also average. The Flames have a great ES GAA but below average PK, so their difference is quite large (3rd worst in NHL).

In short, going on the PK hurts Minnesota's ability to prevent goals the least, and Atlanta's the most. It also hurts Calgary more than everyone but Atlanta and Washington.

Difference between ES GFA and SH GFA:

• Average: 1.95
• Smallest: Toronto: 0.97
• Biggest: Rangers: 2.61
• Flames: 1.67
• Oilers: 1.62

Toronto has a below average ES GFA, but scores lots of shorthanded goals. Rangers have an above average ES GFA, and have scored only one SH goal all year. In short, going on the PK hurts Toronto's scoring the least, and the Rangers' scoring the most.

Now, combining those two categories, you get this:

Difference between ES GD and SH GD:

• Average: 6.05
• Smallest: Minnesota: 3.24
• Biggest: Atlanta: 7.64
• Flames: 7.14
• Oilers: 5.64

Translation: taking a penalty is least harmful to Minnesota, since it has the least impact on their ability to score and prevent goals. It's most harmful to Atlanta. It's very harmful to Calgary, mainly because (in relative terms) their PK is so bad relative to their regular ES play. It's slightly less harmful than the average to Edmonton.

Now you can do the whole thing again for teams' PP (and I did).

Difference between PP GFA and ES GFA:

• Average: 4.10
• Biggest: Detroit: 6.54
• Smallest: Tampa Bay: 2.21
• Flames: 4.36
• Oilers: 4.56

Difference between PP GAA and ES GAA:

• Average: 1.95
• Biggest: St. Louis: 3.14
• Smallest: Ottawa: 1.18
• Flames: 1.82
• Oilers: 2.41

Difference between PP GD and ES GD:

• Average: 6.05
• Biggest: Detroit: 8.20
• Smallest: Tampa Bay: 4.07
• Flames: 6.18
• Oilers: 6.97

Translation: going on the PP helps Detroit more than any other team, mainly because their PP scoring % is that damn good. Tampa has nearly the worst PP in the league somehow, so relative to their average scoring at ES, going on the PP helps them the least. Ottawa has an excellent ES GAA but allows an average # of SH goals, so going on the PP helps them prevent goals less than any other team. St. Louise has an awful ES GAA, but doesn't allow many SH goals, so going on the PP helps them prevent goals more than any other team.

Sub-Conclusion: the value (such as it is) of all these numbers is predictive. If Detroit is getting a lot of power plays, they're going to win. If Atlanta (or Calgary) is taking a lot of penalties, they're going to lose, etc. etc.

However, you can also use them to look backwards, and see which teams are getting killed by taking penalties, and which ones are gaining an advantage by drawing them.

The figures are available for how much time each team spends on the PP and SH, and it's relatively simple to correct for PP/PK success and assess whether those times are above or below average. I'm going to call this Discipline, although that's overly simplistic: factors besides discipline could include hard work, luck, and reputation; even referee favoritism if you believe in that.

To illustrate what I'm talking about, take Ottawa (please!). The Sens have scored 57 PPG and allowed only 42; they've scored 12 SHG and allowed only 4. Obviously there's nothing to complain about with their special teams. However, even after correcting for how good they are at it (and thus spend a bit more time on the PK and less on the PP than if they were average), they spend 16 seconds per game less than the average on the PP, and 36 seconds more than the average on the PK.

Correspondingly, this hurts the Sens. They're down 2.7 goals relative to if they took an average amount of penalties, and they're also down 2.5 goals relative to if they drew an average amount of penalties. This total of 5.3 goals, as Mr. Poisson could tell you, fairly reliably corresponds to a loss of 2 points in the standings (2.8 goals = 1 point).

Here's the teams whose "Discipline" has cost them the most goals:

• FLA -10
• CHI -8
• OTT -5
• WSH -5
• CBJ -5

Except Ottawa, this makes quite a bit of sense: bad teams, undisciplined, bad special teams, the whole deal. The crew with the best discipline, however, is a bit more of a surprise:

• CAR +10
• TBL +9
• NJD +9
• SJS +7
• LAK +7

There you have it. One last stat that stood out to me: how good is the Wild PK, and how bad are the Blues? The Blues ES GAA is 3.58, and the Wild SH GAA is 4.03. Basically, it's almost as easy to score on St. Louis even-strength as it is to put a PP goal past Minnesota.

Thus ends this short novel.

Calgary Herald: Errant blueliners hear Sutter's bark

Thursday night, though, [Sutter] issued a very personal challenge to a pair of his slumping defenceman.

"Jordan (Leopold) and Andrew (Ference) have got to be better for us," grumbled the head coach in the wake of a 3-2 National Hockey League loss to the New York Islanders.

"A helluva lot better. One guy's supposed to be a defensive player, I hear that's our unsung hero, but he's got to compete harder. Bottom line. This is a team that's 12 games over .500 and he's a minus player?

"The other guy's supposed to be an offensive player, gets a lot of offensive minutes, and hasn't scored a goal for us yet this year. You go past this year, through the 26 playoff games and 10 games before that to find the last time he scored."

I didn't know that Leopold's goalless drought extended so far back: that's eighty games without a goal for a guy who won the Hobey Baker Award with 20G and 48pts in 44GP. That said, I don't really have a problem with the guy. He's tops on the team at +13, and he's full value for it. Notwithstanding his puck-bobble last night (where half the blame should go to Tommy anyway), that led to a partial breakaway and the penalty where the Isles scored the winner on the PP, he's excellent defensively. Andrew Ference, on the other hand...

Ference has managed to chalk up a minus-8 +/- rating on the season, despite leading the team with 18 assists. Some days he looks fantastic: moving his legs well, moving the puck well, and generally running the show back there. But too many other days, it's the opposite: his legs aren't moving, he gives the puck away, and he looks like he's afraid to push anyone around.

Basically, he's Kari Eloranta, 20 years later. And Flames fans of the early/mid '80s will certainly remember how Eloranta could both tantalize and infuriate us. At any rate, if Hamrlik isn't back on Saturday, Coach needs to switch up the defence pairings, because the evidence is that Ference needs to be paired with a guy who's more reliable than he is. The pairing with Regehr Jr. didn't work at all last night, and his early season struggles (documented here, here, and here) came while he was paired with Montador. Put him back with Warrener, and let Phaneuf cover for Richie (or Roman, as the case may be).

UNRELATED NOTE: Both Calgary papers are calling this the 2nd 3-game losing streak of the season, and the first since the L/L/OTL in Games 3/4/5. I'm not sure why they're not counting the L/L/SOL in Games 11/12/13; same diff, if you ask me.

Ho hum. Flames score their usual two goals, get a lead, and lose.

The good news for Flames fans is that Jarmoe scored a goal. The bad news is that he was still a -1

Ho hum. The Oilers outshoot their competition in every period but still lose. I didn't see the game because I'm cheap, but from what I've seen on the highlights Jussi might not have been as bad as his SV% would suggest. Anyone?

The good news for Oilers fans is that Peca scored . . . twice. The bad news is that Smytty was -4. I haven't gone over all the stats, but I assume a bunch of those were on the PK.

Anyway, 3 out of 4 points on the road is pretty nice. Next up, two tough home games with the Sens and Sabres coming to town.

I thought I'd take a quick look at the flip side of yesterday's "Defending a Lead" stats. The Flames have played 43 games so far this season, and have trailed at some point in 29 of them. Here's the Flames record, and % of available points, for various maximum scoreboard deficits:

• Never trailed: 12-0-2 (92.9%)
• Trailed by 1: 10-4-2 (68.8%)
• Trailed by 2: 3-3-1 (50.0%)
• Trailed by 3+: 0-6-0 (0.0%)
• Totals: 25-13-5 (64.0%)

For a team that we all know can't score, has no punch, blah blah blah, that doesn't seem bad at all.

The aspect of these numbers that jumps out at me is this: the Flames have won 13 games in which they trailed at some point, whereas they've only lost 7 games in which they led at some point (plus another 2 in OT/SO).

Weird: the Flames have an identical 10-4-2 record in games which they've led by 2, and games which they've trailed by 1.

The other nice "big picture" aspect of these numbers is that they've only had 6 games in which they've trailed by 3 goals or more. Three of these were in the first four games of the season. Since then, they've literally been in every single game: only twice since Game 4 have they been as many as 2 goals down going into the third period, and one of those they won--in regulation.

Last item: these numbers show that 21 of the Flames' 43 games have featured at least one lead change, or 48.8%. (The 22 that haven't comes from 14 where CGY never trailed, plus 9 where they never led, minus the one which is double-counted.) The NHL numbers as of yesterday were 310/636, or 48.7%. So much for boring Flames hockey; I have no idea which teams are pulling the numbers down, but Calgary's not one of them.

So the delightful Mike "Milhouse" Milbury has not only fired his coach, but now he's stepped down (up?) as Isles GM. He'll now be the team president (hello, Dilbert Principle!) and choose his replacement as GM. The new GM will in turn hire a new coach (something called Brad Shaw will be the interim HC).

The obvious best candidate at the moment is Brent Sutter, but despite Brent's long and successful service with the Isles, the attraction might not be mutual (does that make him Lisa?). Long Island is a long way from Alberta, and as I mentioned last week, there's a decent chance that at least one job will be opening up this offseason that's a lot closer to home.

The worst thing about this, from an entirely self-interested perspective, is the timing. Removing Mike Milbury from the Isles' hockey operations is sure to release some fantastic (if temporary) karma, right before tonight's home game against the Flames. How psyched is Alexei Yashin going to be tonight?

Well, whoever Milhouse chooses as a new GM, I'm sure it will be wise, and the result of many hours of serious drinkingthinking.

Good luck to you, sir!!!

As superstud Sturgeon County native Colby Cosh (aka: "Dude-With-A-Huge-Penis") notes, the hottest ticket around is for tonight's Oilers-Rangers Game/Moose Retirement Ceremony.

Sadly, most Oilers fans will be forced to read about it in the papers because it is only on Pay-Per-View. Obviously from an economic point of view I understand why the Powers would try to make us pay extra to watch this game--there is, afterall, quite a bit of incentive for us in Edmonton to crack open the pocketbook; but, from a fan-friendly perspective I despise it.

Messier definitely had a special relationship with New York and with Ranger fans, but hell, he did win 5 cups in Edmonton. To force those Edmonton fans to pay extra kinda pisses me off. It especially pisses me off because I don't even have the option given that I have a regular old tee-vee without a digital cable box.

Anyway, during his highly emotional press conference I was hoping he was going to say, "I promised Gretz I wouldn't do this" when he started crying. That would have made me laugh.

Given that I became an Oilers fan long after he had bolted from Edmonton, I'll leave it to others to reminisce fondly. Instead, I'll just cheer for the other NY team against the other Alberta team in the game that actually is televised.

The Festivities start at 5:00 Mountain Time for both games.

...there's lots of interesting numbers in this NHL.com article.

I might as well do this before some hater beats me to it.

A brief recent history of Calgary 2-goal leads, in reverse chronological order:

• 2-0 v. NYR (result: 4-2 Loss)
• 3-1 v. VAN (result: 4-3 OT Loss)
• 2-0 v. EDM (result: 6-5 Win)
• 4-2 v. MIN (result: 4-2 Win)
• 2-0 v. NSH (result: 4-3 Loss)
• 2-0 v. L.A. (result: 5-2 Loss)
• 4-2 v. EDM (result: 5-4 Loss)

No matter how you slice it, that's freakin' terrible. On the season, the Flames have taken a 2-goal lead 22 times (in 20 separate games). Five times, the game mercifully ended without any further scoring.

Of the remaining 17 times the Flames have taken a 2-goal lead, they have scored the next goal 5 times, and their opponent has scored the next goal 12 times.

Of those 12 times, their opponent has scored again to tie the game 8 times. The game has ended 3 times, and only once has Calgary scored again to retake a 2-goal lead.

Overall, the Flames score slightly more goals than they prevent, so what is the deal here? Lack of killer instinct, or statistical aberration? Probably some of both, but I'm leaning a bit toward the latter. Here's the Flames record, and % of available points, with various maximum leads:

• No lead: 0-6-3 (16.7%)
• 1-goal: 10-3-0 (76.9%)
• 2-goal: 10-4-2 (68.8%)
• 3-goal: 4-0-0 (100.0%)
• 4-goal: 1-0-0 (100.0%)
• Total: 25-13-5 (64.0%)

I just can't believe that there's any explanation besides fluke for why the Flames have a better record in games where they take a 1-goal lead (but no more) than in games where they take a 2-goal lead (but no more). Of course, I'm going to hear that the real fluke is their great record with the 1-goal lead, but talk to the hand...

Monday we posted the East standings thru 40 games; now that San Jose has played their 40th, here's the West standings. Points:



And goal differential:



Notes of interest:

• Calgary and Edmonton obviously had very good 2nd quarters. FYI, only the 8th of the Flames' 8-game win streak a while back was in the 2nd quarter, so their top points reflect pretty consistent strong play.
• I knew Colorado and Vancouver had weak 2nd quarters, but 11th and 12th in the conference by both measures? That surprised me.
• That logjam for 8th place is something else. On the plus side, those 5 teams all have to be happy that they're still in it. On the minus side, whichever team wants to make it is going to have to play one hell of a 2nd half. (For example, the Sharks numbers look pretty promising here, but Colorado has already won their first 4 games of the 3rd quarter, and San Jose is 8 points out of the playoffs. This is what coaches mean when they say they'd rather have the points than the games-in-hand.)
• Biggest Improvement Award: Anaheim (+7 pts). Biggest Fall Award: Nashville (-9 pts). Why Aren't They Better? Award: Minnesota. Consistency Award: Dallas (2nd place: St. Louis - ugh).
• Strange Stat That Can't Totally Be Explained By Ottawa's Dominance: nine teams in the East have a negative goal differential through 40 games; only the three Shames of the Central Division do in the West.

If you notice anything else interesting, add it in the comments.

In case you missed it in the comment thread below, Battle of Alberta Senior Mismatch Correspondent mudcrutch79 had a live game report from last night's Oilers-Penguins tilt. Here it is in its entirety:

Wow. Pittsburgh sucks in every sense, ranging from the hockey team to the city.

We walked from our hotel over to the rink. I've never been so uncomfortable walking through a part of a city at 7PM in my life. Very rundown and lots of people who made me nervous (a 26 year old guy walking with a 25 year old rather large guy). I'd prefer to walk the streets of Canada's murder capital than go through that again.

Then we got to the rink. What a dump. I used to have some sympathy for the Pens and their financial problems but they aren't even trying. There's no maintenance being done at the Mellon Center whatsoever-soap dispensers with buttons ripped off, toilets covered with bags (that the residents of the 'burgh rip off so as to avoid standing in lines)... it's a complete shithole. I won't even mention the seats, which appear to have not been cleaned since the rink opened. Their game presentation blows too--no replays of penalty calls for one.

The anthem was hilarious. They had a little video montage of three different images during the Canadian anthem--a deer running through a field, a shot of the Toronto skyline and what appeared to be a street in Italy. Gong.

As for the game itself, it was a fun one to watch. PIT fans HATE Gonchar--the guy next to me was complaining how he puts the team short time after time (something backed up by the penalty stats at my site). He got a vicious booing.

I don't get MacT though. He's like an idiot savant. I think he does so many things well--Crosby/ Pronger [sic? Palffy?] were rarely on the ice without having Peca and/or Pronger out there with them. He finally doesn't start Conklin. Then, what do I see? Peca playing the point on the PP. Lord have mercy.

Fleury was fun to watch. I'm pretty sure that the Oilers had some good video on him and were told to go five hole every chance. He's soft on his rebound control and does a piss poor job of getting his legs together.

Fun game from an Oiler perspective, although they weren't as dominant as I expected. They did an excellent job of preventing PIT from getting chances once they gained the zone though and were full value for the win.

I'll say again though, I'm happy I don't have the option of seeing them in PIT for the next three years.

Good work Tyler - your cheque is in the mail.

You thought an 8-10 record was rough on a coach, how about an 11-31 record?

Penguins coach Michel Therrien:

"I'm not impressed," he said. "It's a pathetic performance. Half of the team doesn't care. These guys would see if we take 50 percent of their salaries because they only play 50 percent of the time. That defensive squad, I really am starting to believe their goal is to be the worst defensive squad in the league. They turn the puck over, they have no vision, they're soft. They don't care. They pretend to care, but I know they don't care."

"They make my job miserable. So, it's give and take. So what can I do? Tonight it looked like men among boys. Marc has played well for us. Thank god."

Ouch

And this picture is from the Flames fan site. Whooo boy.

Hey Hey Hey. Horcoff gets a hat trick. Has a hat trick consisting of a shortie, a regular strength, and a powerplay goal ever been named? Can we start to call it a Horcoff?

On another note, a great game by Ray Ferraro tonight. Maybe it was because I hadn't heard him for a while, but he was genuinely interesting tonight. Not only that, but Peca gave a pretty decent interview afterwards.

All in all, a great night. Did I mention that the Flames blew another 2 goal lead?

[Edit]: Cross had a heckuva game too.

The Flames take on the New York Rangers tonight at MSG (5PM MST, no TV). Rather surprisingly, it's a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league (currently 3rd and 4th in team GAA).

[Interesting sidebar: go here and look at the Team-by-Team comparison of Goals Against. The Flames and Rangers are virtually even in 5-on-5 GA (49/53), and the Rangers have a much better 4-on-5 PK (43/25). But that GA advantage is erased because of the Rangers much worse 3-on-5 PK GA (2/10), their 4-on-4 GA (2/6), and their 5 SH goals allowed (vs. Calgary's zero).]

Rangers rookie Petr Prucha has no chance at the Calder Trophy, but his 20-4 record (goals-assists) make him the heavy favourite for the Cy Young Award of hockey.

The Flames ought not to miss any opportunity to punk Glen Sather. I'll call a 3-1 victory, with Lombardi and Kobasew running the show. Go Flames.

Season Record: 23-15-4	Season Record: 11-21-9

Once again, it seems appropriate to mention that the main posts on this site are not nearly as entertaining and interesting as the great discussions that often follow in the comments section. To wit, see this post and associated comments on goal differential.

To put in my own two cents, I've always liked Cosh's method of dividing the Overall Goal Differential into its Offensive and Defensive components. Here it is as of today.



Interesting tidbits. While we already knew Calgary's +6 Overall GD is largely a result of their defense, the numbers are actually quite shocking (-18.60 on O!).

Edmonton, despite all the crying about the goaltending, Cross, and Ulanov, is atually above average (barely) in the defensive component. This suprised me.

All 8 non-playoff teams (and one playoff team) in the East are negative in both O and D, while in the West only three teams are double-negatives. The top four non-playoff teams all have decent D but can't score - hmmm, sound familiar Flames fans?

If the jackals at HF think that the Oilers are going to be able to get a good goaltender without severely overpaying, one only has to note that LA, Vancouver, Colorado, and Atlanta all have negative D components with positive O components. Good luck K-Lowe. Methinks we are going to have to hope like hell that Mac-T stops screwing around with Conklin and just starts riding Jussi until he collapses.

Rhett Warrener in the Calgary Herald:

One theory, which ebbs and flows depending on sick bay's vacancy rate, is that the Flames' all-out rugged style leads directly to more Band-Aids.

Relayed this explanation -- that injuries are the by-product of aggression -- Warrener snorted loudly.

"The by-product of not working hard is going out there and being bad and losing," said Warrener. "So take your pick."

Pause.

"You can work hard, play the game the way it's supposed to be played, maybe get the odd bruise here or there. Or you can go out there and float around and embarrass yourself."

I am..The Warrener!

Tom Benjamin is taking a look at the scoring numbers I posted yesterday, and takes the step I didn't--wonders about something that's of qualitative interest to NHL fans:

How much would scoring be up this season if PP and ES time broke down the same as last season (and thus, if the raw number of special teams goals was the same as last season)? Scoring would be up by 0.49 GPG instead of 1.03 GPG.

The $64 question I've been chewing over is "What rule change or changes is producing the extra half a goal per game?" The key point is that even strength scoring is up per minute and power play scoring is not, once an adjustment is made for all the extra two man advantages. That begs the question:

"What rule change or changes help offense at even strength play but doesn't help the power play?"

Hell of a good question, and his answer seems very plausible:

The fact that the change in the icing rule only affects even strength play provides a clue, I think. I can't believe the rule itself leads to more goals, but it does lead to fewer whistles. So does allowing the two line pass and so does the re-introduction of tag up offsides. Most of the missing whistles are missing from even strength play because most of the power play stoppages occur when a shot is deflected out of play or the goalie freezes the puck.

Indeed, although I think it's possible that the icing rule itself does lead to more goals. The rule prohibiting defensive line changes after an icing has, to my eyes, provided a very successful disincentive for icing. Icing the puck has changed from being a generally sound defensive play (particularly with a lead, and considering the alternatives) to being a generally poor defensive play, or at least that's the obvious wisdom among coaches and players at the moment. Icing has become pretty rare.

When you combine that with the delay-of-game penalty for shooting the puck over the glass, we have a situation where most players would rather attempt to chip the puck partway down the ice, and risk having it intercepted, than ice the puck knowing the consequences. Similarly, when a defender is the first to reach a loose puck in the midst of a sustained attack, he never just one-times a blast up ice anymore; he'll hold on to the puck briefly, to try to get into a position where he can clear the puck without icing it. (Note: these things apply regardless of whether the defender is dead tired or not.)

This cannot lead to anything except longer sustained pressure at times in the attacking zone. This should lead to more goals. Half a goal per game? Dunno.

[Postscript: now that the new icing rule has introduced this weird concept of prohibiting only one team from changing lines, shouldn't the "puck over the glass" be punished the same way (goalie and skaters)? A minor penalty is excessive for an infraction which surely is no more egregious than icing. There's actually less delay than with an icing, since no one has to skate back and touch the puck.]

Marcus Nilson gets through "Five Minutes with Marcus Nilson" in about fifty seconds.

Nice. Real nice.




What, you want more? Uh, OK. After going 4-7-2 in October, the Flames then went 21-5-2 over the next 28 to hit the halfway point. That's wins in fully three-quarters of their games, and by my count, 18 were in regulation: only 2 were in shootouts, plus the OT win over Ottawa.

Some of the underlying statistics are frankly awful. A sample, with a bit of mediocrity thrown in:

• Goal Differential of only +7
• PP% is 18th in the league; our divisional rivals are 6th, 8th, 9th, and 11th
• PK% is 19th in the league; again, worst in our division. This is also an odd and unpleasant stat for a team that nominally operates on a defensive philosophy
• we've also taken more penalties (262) than every other team in the division, another odd and unpleasant stat for a team that prides itself on discipline
• 28th in the league in even-strength Goals For, ahead of only St. Louise and C-Bus
• our top scorer is tied for 64th in the league with 33 points. A 2nd Art Ross Trophy isn't in the cards for Jarome this season.

There's a few impressive stats too, I suppose:

• 3rd in the league in GAA
• 1st in the league in even-strength GAA, ahead of even the mighty Senators
• Kipper has 6 shutouts, twice as many as the guys in 2nd place

And some aspects of their record are simply phenomenal:

• 5-0-1 v. the East
• 12-3-2 v. the NW Division (that's 4-0-1 v. VAN, 3-1-1 v. EDM, 2-1-0 v. COL, and 3-1-0 v. MIN)
• Did I mention they were 21-5-2 to close out the first half? The fact that I can name every Flames regulation loss since the beginning of November without looking it up makes me very happy (Edmonton, Chicago, L.A., and Nashville twice)

I'm also very happy with the less measurable things. Even when Jarome is bad, he's good: he's an excellent defensive forward who hardly ever makes mistakes. Robyn Regehr is giving Lidstrom and Pronger a run as the best defenseman in the Western Conference. Jordan Leopold might be the greatest goal-less player in NHL history. Phaneuf makes mistakes, but he keeps getting better. Ference is finally proving that he belongs, and is giving up the puck much, much less than in the early season.

Tony Amonte and Daymond Langkow have become Calgary Flames. They didn't really fit early on, but they're with the program now, and they're part of the juggernaut. Yelle and Nilson are as good as ever. Huselius and Lombardi give us something we didn't really have last season, and that's hands that can make tough goals look easy, and can create something out of nothing.

The Flames are on track for somewhere between 110 and 115 points, which will translate into 1st or 2nd spot in the conference, and most likely home-ice advantage for as long as they keep winning. Times are good in the C of Red, and there's no good reason to believe that they won't keep rolling. Go Flames.

In late November, I posted the quarter-pole standings. Yesterday the Caps played their 40th game, and the whole East has now played 40 games. Here's the apples-to-apples standings for the conference through 40 games:



And goal differential:



Notes of interest:

• If it seems like the Rangers are tailing off, well, they're not.
• It's just impossible to overstate how dominant Ottawa was over the 1st 20 games. In the 2nd 20, they scored 25 fewer goals, allowed 11 more, and still had the best goal differential in the conference.
• It's also pretty tough to overstate how bad Montreal was in the 2nd quarter. If they hadn't beaten Ottawa 4-1 on Saturday in their 40th game, they would have been the worst team in the conference by every measure.
• The East obviously took a bit of a beating in interleague play. The cumulative goal differential of the 15 teams over the 2nd 20 games was -33.

Once St. Louis and San Jose have played their 40th games, I'll post the numbers for the West. Hint: the two teams that are the focus of a certain wonderful weblog are 1st and T-2nd in points, while their divisional rivals had a pretty tough go.

Back at the end of September, sacamano and I (and a few others) had a protracted and somewhat pissy discussion about whether more powerplays means more goal scoring. Intuitively, the answer is "Of course!". Tom Benjamin reminded us that it's not that simple, because while the PP team has a much better chance of scoring, the SH team has a much worse chance of scoring, and it evens things out to a great extent (if not entirely).

Anyway, here's some sa-tistics, as of Thursday or Friday. Goal info is from NHL.com; "time" info is from mc79hockey.com. Special teams scoring includes all PP and SH goals. Also, apparently empty net goals scored on the PP or SH are not counted at special teams goals, as they don't seem to be double-counted in the stats I reviewed.

2003/2004

• Goals per game: 5.14
• Even strength goals per game: 3.40
• Even strength play per game: 46:03
• Even strength scoring frequency: 1 goal every 13:32
• Special teams goals per game: 1.57
• Special teams play per game: 13:38
• Special teams scoring frequency: 1 goal every 8:42
• Empty net & penalty shot scoring: 0.17 goals per game (accounts for 19 sec/game)

2005/2006

• Goals per game: 6.17
• Even strength goals per game: 3.61
• Even strength play per game: 40:32
• Even strength scoring frequency: 1 goal every 11:14
• Special teams goals per game: 2.39
• Special teams play per game: 19:09
• Special teams scoring frequency: 1 goal every 8:01
• Empty net & penalty shot scoring: 0.17 goals per game (accounts for 19 sec/game)

What does it all mean? I dunno.

In terms of frequency, it's actually even strength scoring that's up a lot, not special teams scoring. However, in raw numbers, that's almost completely offset by the reduced time of even strength play.

You could attribute this increase in ES scoring frequency to all sorts of things. The smaller goalie equipment; no red line; a successful reduction in obstruction; the icing disincentive, etc.. I really don't know.

The special teams scoring frequency is up only slightly (8:01 from 8:42). Your intuitive explanation for this increase might be the increased number of 5-on-3 PPs. If so, you are absolutely right.

Last season (1230 games), there were a total of 154 goals scored on 5-on-3. This season, through 603 games, there were 178 goals scored 5-on-3. If you use the "old" 5-on-3 scoring pace (75 goals to date), and update the numbers above (basically, just reducing the # of special teams goals by 103), the special teams scoring frequency becomes one goal every 8:38: virtually identical to last season.

Conclusions

Let's assume that since we've shown that NON-5-on-3 PP success has remained constant from last season, then 5-on-3 PP success has as well; I think this is reasonable (until Mudcrutch posts "Time of 5-on-3" data...). The increase of 1.03 goals per game this season is a result of the following:

• 0.21 GPG - even strength, despite the reduced amount of ES play
• 0.27 GPG - increased frequency of 5-on-3 situations
• 0.55 GPG - increased frequency of 5-on-4 and 4-on-3 situations

How much would scoring be up this season if PP and ES time broke down the same as last season (and thus, if the raw number of special teams goals was the same as last season)? Scoring would be up by 0.49 GPG instead of 1.03 GPG.

OK, now go ahead and rip my assumptions and calculations to shreds...

I don't really know anything, but apparently Calgary radio jock Joe Sports is still fighting the good fight against Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia.

His colleagues don't mention it much (at all), but on Friday, Rob Kerr introduced Bruce Dowbiggin as "filling in for Joe Sports for a while" on the Big Show, 1-4PM.

Again, all our best wishes to him and his family during this tough time.

...that if those are the circumstances it takes for the Flames to lose to the Canucks, I should probably be happy.

And Kipper was even better tonight than he was in his shutout last night. If I was a Finnish hockey fan, I'd be pissed.

Hockey Dirt hosted a weblogger midseason poll for the NHL Awards; you've probably seen the results, and/or Mirtle, Golbez, or McErlain talking about them.

I don't want to go through all my selections (partially since I can't remember them all), but I will touch on my three write-in votes:

1) MVP - Zdeno Chara. This was based on the "best player on the best team" criteria, and from the Senators v. Flames game. Redden didn't play in that game, but his play in other game-parts I've seen have left me less than awestruck. It looks now like maybe Alfie is the key to the whole mess rather than Big Zed, but hey, this was a week ago.

2) Coach of the Year - Andy Murray. Unlike Chara, this seems like an even better pick a week later. There are a lot of good coaches in the NHL, though - I don't mind any of the choices. And if you're picking it on "team that way exceeded preseason expectations", there's not much to distinguish Buffalo, Carolina, and L.A. I wrote in Murray mainly because he wasn't nominated, but deserved it as much as anyone else.

3) Tough Guy - Le Grand Georges. Virtually no one will fight him. Mirtle picked Derek Boogard; Booger took a canoe ride with LeGG earlier this season, and barely laid a finger on him while getting smacked right in the mouth, over and over. I'm sure Brian McGrattan is a tough fellow, but this isn't close.

(I see Sacamano must have voted in this too, since LeGG has two write-in votes, and someone picked Peca for the Selke. I'll give you points for determination, my friend.)

I'm not really clear what a "Top-rookie" is, and Ilya Kovalchuk isn't any kind of -rookie, but whatever. The highlights of last night's PIT-ATL game were hilarious and exciting. If Ilya is going to be Crosby's archenemy, rather than Ovechkin, so be it.

[Screencap from the Yahoo! Sports main NHL page]

Man, don't you know it's just a holiday invented out of thin air by a corporation, man, to sell stuff for a bunch of other corporations?

My strong anti-capitalist sentiments* aside, it should be a good day. Sens-Habs at noon MST. Then the usual Leafs game at 5:00, although this week it happens to be in Edmonton against the Oilers. And finally at 8:00, Flames at Canucks.

The Canucks have gained a total of one point against the Flames this season in 4 games (2 in each city). I know the Flames are better - I watched all four games - but the Canucks shouldn't be that submissive, should they? The Flames still have a chance to sweep 3 of their 14 conference rivals**:

• Columbus (2 down, 2 to go)
• St. Louis (0 down, 4 to go)
• Vancouver (4 down, 4 to go)

I like it. It's pretty much quieted any Canucks fans who were still saying that with Bertuzzi, they definitely would have beat the Flames in the playoffs. But at the same time, I can't get my head around the idea of beating them all 8 times (and if they should happen to meet in the playoffs, that's the last thing you want).

For a prediction, I'll just say "tied after 60 minutes". All good things must come to an end, but you never want that end to be now. Go Flames.

----------
*Yes that's sarcasm
**Dallas (2 of 4), Anaheim (1 of 4), Nashville (2 of 4), and St. Louis still have the chance to sweep the Flames.

I meant to write about this yesterday but, well, forgot.

Last night was the inaugural game of Edmonton's newest pro sporting franchise -- the Edmonton Rush of the National Lacrosse League.

Alas, they lost their first one. But it was an OT game and sounds like it was pretty exciting.

Welcome to the scene and good luck to the Rush!

I think I see what Chris Selley was talking about.

Ed Belfour was the 2nd Star in tonight 1-0 Leafs loss to the Flames. He was generally in good position. He made several very nice saves, and one spectacular one (on Darren McCarty later in the 3rd).

He also let in infinity times more weak dribblers (1) than Miikka Kiprusoff (0), which was the difference in the game.

The goalies were both good, but it was no goaltenders' duel. And it was obvious, even with Roger Millions calling each shot straight into the pads or chest protector of either goalie like it was a no-look behind-the-back 1999-Hasek-circus-stop.

3rd star Robyn Regehr was the best player on the ice by a mile, and should have been 1st star even if he had nothing to do with the one Calgary goal. It was a nice way to end the first half of the team's season for him; he missed the first 14 games of it, and I'm still calling him the Flames' MVP, 1st half edition.

As alluded to below, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in town to face the Flames (7PM MST). Sportsnet West for us prairie folk, Leaf$TV for those back in Honest Ed land.

I haven't heard who's in the nets for either team yet; since both the Flames and the Leafs are playing the 1st half of back-to-backs, I assume all four goalies will get a start this weekend. My guess would be that the Flames save Kipper for the Canucks tomorrow, meaning that Tellqvist will either face the Flames #2 tonight (Sauve) or the Oilers #2 tomorrow (check hourly).

This pic was lifted from some Hungarian website; I knew the Senators had been punking on Belfour so far this year, but I clearly didn't appreciate the full extent of the thing.

Apparently Yelle, Nilson, and Warrener are all ready to return to the lineup tonight. Ritchie, on the other hand, is out for 3-4 weeks with a sprained MCL. Digression:

I don't believe in the eye-for-an-eye theory of NHL punishment, but a 2-game suspension to Spacek for what he did to Ritchie seems really damn inadequate. The phrase "that's not part of hockey" is overused. Charging across the ice to hit a guy from behind is not good strategy or sportsmanship, and it'll generally earn you an ejection, but I've seen it dozens of times in NHL games. Likewise, someone punching another guy in the head when he's facing the other direction: it's risible and should be punished severely, but it's not rare like a 5-goal game. It's not part of the way hockey should be played, but my eyes and memory tell me that yes, it is a (small) part of hockey.

But diving at another guy's legs while he's skating full speed? From (A) 90-degrees, (B) a full stop, and (C) the player's bench? What the hell? That is not part of hockey.

If you do something that never, ever, happens because of the risk of serious injury, and it does, in fact, result in serious injury, then your punishment should in some way reflect the length of that serious injury. [/digression]

Flames need a win tonight, because I think the Canucks are probably due for one tomorrow. Let's go 4-2 for the boys in Red. Go Flames.

Big congratulations to the Canadian Juniors on their gold medal. Flames prospect Dustin Boyd looks pretty solid. Oilers prospect Andrew Cogliano looks like a combination of Paul Ranheim and Jani Rita, so they've got that going for them. (Also, Devan Dubnyk further strengthens the Oil's depth at backup goaltender. Kudos, K-Lo!)

Brent Sutter quite rightly has gotten massive praise for the team's success. One of my pet peeves for years has been the treatment of the Sutters as something akin to the Borg from Star Trek, like they all have the same brain. There's been plenty of that in the coverage too, but I must admit, I did get a bit of a Flames vibe off of this junior team. I'm not positive what it was, although I'd say it's related to the patience they showed for gaining scoring chances--skate, forecheck, hit, and let chances develop as they will.

Related--Randy of Game Certainty dropped this in the comments yesterday:

On 640 Mojo Leaf's Lunch, Ken King hinted Brent Sutter could be coaching the Flames next season.

Interesting, although I've never heard this possibility mentioned before. I think it would be a dubious move by the Flames for a few reasons, but more importantly, I can't imagine why Brent Sutter would want to do it.

Clearly, Brent Sutter is due to move to the pros. There is absolutely nothing left for him to prove in the juniors: Red Deer has won a Memorial Cup (2001) and been elite just about every other year, plus there's those two gold medals. Assuming he's ready for the change this summer, I don't think it's much of an exaggeration to say he'll have his pick of the available jobs, and probably a few that are unavailable.

To choose the Flames coaching job (which is better than even money to be 'vacated' by Darryl Sutter this summer), Brent would have to not only be willing to work for his brother, but also believe that the job GM Darryl has done up until then (and is likely to do going forward) gives him the best possible chance to succeed -- and that isn't even to mention his perception of the strength and resources of the ownership and organization in general, or his enthusiasm for jumping into the shadow of the '04 playoff run and whatever happens this year.

I suppose this isn't farfetched, although if he's weighing (say) a dozen job offers, it'll be far from obvious. Also, the chance to stay close to home would be appealing, no doubt.

Fortunately for him, there's another NHL organization within driving distance of Red Deer and Viking which is probably in for a shakeup this summer, at the coaching position if not GM as well. Call it my dark horse prediction for June 2006:

"The Edmonton Oilers are pleased to announce the hiring of Brent Sutter as their new General Manager and Head Coach."

I don't think Nichols, Laforge, and the boys are that smart, but what the hell.

BWM, just moved east from Edmonton to the big city and trying to fit in. Enjoy: Sea Breezes, screaming at Bob & Harry when our team is on TV. Favourite player: (old) Glenn Anderson, (new) Wendel Clark. Go Maples!

No surprise, but Mayor Quimby was sent to Greenville for a conditioning stint. At least he didn't drop back to the ECHL - yet.

You would think that having the best win/loss record (5-1), the best GAA (.235), and the best S% (.904) of any Oilers' goalie would be enough to stick around. Alas, it doesn't appear so.

At least he will be getting some playing time.

I finally remembered something that's been bugging me since Covered in Oil (amongst others) were having a discussion of hockey nicknames back in November.

We all know that 90-some percent of hockey nicknames are "one syllable of the guy's name, with 's' or 'y' tacked on the end". But the best category exception to this, by a mile, is the nicknames which derive from something too crass for the media in general to explain to fans, and instead of leaving it alone, everyone agrees on some G-rated (but phony) origin, which makes it even funnier.

The defining example of this is Doug Gilmour: "Killer". As far as I know from the final dozen years of his career, we fans were all supposed to believe that this gloss derived from his fierce competitive spirit. The fact that it's an obvious reference to Jerry Lee Lewis and their shared taste in womenfemales is far too impolite to be referenced constantly, if ever, on the air or in print.

I don't recall how the civil suit with the babysitter in St. Louis was resolved; he was never charged criminally. However, I think it's pretty much public record that he hooked up with his second wife Amy in Toronto while (A) she was too young to vote, and (B) he was still married to his first wife.

Anyhoo, I'm not trying to turn this site into the Frank archives; just remember this post next time an announcer tells you that some running back is nicknamed 'Horse' because, uh, he's as strong as one.

I've disappointed myself for three full months now with my inability to come up with any kind of nickname for Dion Phaneuf (I have no idea if 'Neufy' caught on in the Flames dressing room, nor do I really want to know). However, I was blinded by a flash of inspiration in the aftermath of the Blackhawks game on Monday regarding a different player.

• December 27th: Kristian Huselius deliberately banks a shot off of Tomas Vokoun's back, from behind the goal line, to give the Flames a 3-2 lead late in the 2nd period
• January 2nd: Huselius deliberately banks a shot off of the back of Craig Anderson's leg, from behind the goal line, to give the Flames a 2-1 lead in the 2nd period
• December 31st: Huselius fires a shot from the outside top of the circle that banks off of Bergeron's leg, then off of Pronger's leg, and into the net for a 6-5 lead over the Oil with 75 seconds left--it holds up as the game-winner

Finally: Huselius basically never shows any emotion on his face whatsover, or says anything. Not when he scores, not when he's skating to the penalty box, never. So, how does this go again:

He plays by intuition
The digit counters fall
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball

Hockey fans, I give you Kristian "Tommy" Huselius. You're welcome. How do you think he does it? (I don't know...)

Hey hey hey. The Oiler have completed half their regular season and, going in to a new year, I thought it was time to post some sort of midpoint evaluation type thing. I don't give grades and I don't use fancy statistics. Sue me.

Powerplay/Penalty Kill - Perhaps the biggest story of the year. Last season the Oilers were an abysmal 29th/17th in the league. This year they are 7th and 13th. Maybe Craig Simpson is more than just a pretty coiffure. Of course, adding Stoll, Pronger, Bergeron, and a new and improved Hemsky didn't hurt.

Faceoffs - from 11th last year to first this year. Is this important? I dunno - it can't hurt.

5 on 5 - An interesting regression from last year. This year the Oilers are exactly even in goals for/against 5 on 5. Last season they were 9th in the league with a 1.22 ratio. The loss of 5 on 5 strength is almost certainly a result of some questionable goaltending. Thank goodness the powerplay is working.

First Line

After taking talk-show abuse all preseason about how he could never be a #1 center, Horc has quietly put together a pretty nice season. He still isn't a true #1 - whatever that is - but he has been pretty effective, if inconsistent. Already has a career high in points.




Smytty - The Mad Mullet hasn't had to carry the load this year, which is good because I'm not entirely sure he is still capable of it. Has gone missing more than previous seasons. Having said that, he has still had a pretty nice first half and always seems to be around at nut cuttin' time. Is it possible to not love this guy?



Ales Hemsky - Learn how to fake this signature, folks, because the sky is well and truly the limit. 11 goals, 27 assists. He is starting to shoot, can pass like crazy, and finally provides the Oilers with someone who can work the powerplay halfboards without messing his minipad under pressure. He is tougher than people give him credit for too. Another guy with a career high in points already.

Second Line



Jarret Stoll - Remeber when Stevie Y used to have a pretty boy face? Seen him lately? I predict a similar result for Stoll. The breakout player of the year. 14 goals, 26 assists. Consistent as anyone on the team, and has a rocket of a shot. Along with Hemsky and Pronger, Stoll has been largely responsible for the improved powerplay - especially when they put him back on the point. Yet another guy who already has a career high in points.





Raffi Torres - Torres is as streaky as Stoll is consistent. When he is playing well he is tough to miss. Like Pronger, he has been pretty good at picking his spots for the physical play, but is not nearly as effective when he isn't hitting. Mrs. Sac's favourite player.






Radek Dvorak - Injuries have slowed him down, but this facial expression really says it all. Somewhat confused, still sorta happy. This is a guy that I so want to do better. He has all the skills, creates a tonne of quality chances, but just seems to be permanently snake-bitten. It is inexplicable.






Third Line - MPP, RPM, it doesn't matter. The Oil's third line might be the best in the league.



Mike Peca - The Oilers undisputed MVP. We should be paying him 8, nay 18, million dollars. Meh. He obviously wasn't the first line scoring centre the Brain Trust was hoping he could be, but I'm still extremely happy with his play. He is exactly the kind of guy that the Oilers needed to get them through tight games against elite players. Markus who? Jarmoe who? He is going to be a key in the Oilers first round playoff win.




Fernando Pisani - 10 points in the last 7 games. Unbelievable 5 on 5. Just an absolutely solid, consistent third line outscorer. This is one that the Brain Trust should get credit for - they recognized something that most others didn't.





Ethan Moreau - Moreau is another guy like Dvorak who I keep thinking should be able to breakout. I don't really understand why he doesn't have more goals. By far the hardest working guy out there, has crazy wheels, never gets tired. Still doing pretty well with 8 goals 12 assists from the third line.




Fourth Line

Marty Reasoner - I love him. I think he is one of the underrated keys to the team. Honestly. Entirely overlooked, he makes his linemates better. Having said that, he isn't having his best season.


Le GG - I had such high hopes for Georges. The new rules should make him unstopable . . . well, if he hadn't taken over Marchant's hands. Over the last two weeks he has been pretty active and has been able to draw a lot of penalties. I'm not entirely sure that his salary is worth it, though. I wouldn't be suprised to see him packaged outta town. It would be a shame because he is a sentimental favourite in town. At least he has a degree to fall back on . . .










Todd Harvey - A funny guy. I love it when he scores goals. Other than that, he has been pretty average. But he and his molester mustache make me laugh.





Brad Winchester - I dunno, seems ok.






Defense

Chris Pronger and his balls - way better than I thought. He is just so solid in the defensive end it is ridiculous. He is also so calm with the puck that we finally have someone to give the wingers time to get up ice for some nice long breakouts. Equally impressive has been his transition from mean, cross-checking SOB to well-positioned, little-penalized, gentleman. I personally think he might have gone a tad too far in that direction, but I'm sure he'll be back for playoffs. Soaks up a tonne of minutes and, as Cosh once noted, shortens every penalty kill to one-minute.

Bergeron - a nice sophmore season. I didn't like his pairing with Pronger at the beginning because he was a bit too deferential, but they seem to be playing prety well together now. Added bonus is that he is actually hitting the net with his canon this year - well, mostly. He scrambles a lot, but that makes him fun to watch.




Jason Smith - I dunno. Okay. Nothing spectacularly good or bad. Now that he can't pull off the facewash in front of the net he isn't as effective. However, he still seems to be able to pull of a physical game without too many penalties



Steve Staois - I dunno. Somewhere between Smith and Cross - probably closer to Smith. Joins Harvey on the All Molester Mustache Team.



Igor Ulanov - Get your memorabilia now, because he is one contract deadline away from retirement. I love him, just love him. I think he is one of the funniest guys on the team. But he needs to join the other retired Oilers behind bench. Still soaks up a fair number of minutes - although I'm always on pins and needles when he is the one looking to clear the puck from the d-zone.




Cory Cross - Was going to be a teacher before he accidently found himself signed to an NHL contract. To his credit, he has spun out that gig for about as long as he could spin it. Yes, he has a great slapper. No, he doesn't ever use it. Early on his positioning was decent enough for him to get away with an incredible lack of mobility. Lately . . . he is better suited to the story time chair.




Matt Greene - He hasn't been around long enough to get any nice photos up on google. But other Matt Greenes have. Matt had a very nice game drawing in for Cross against Chicago. Of course, I probably could have looked better than Cross against Chicago.





Jani Rita - Meh. Who the hell knows anymore? The invisible man (middle in the photo) is gonzo. I don't even care if he becomes a superstar somewhere else. Cut him loose. Maybe his goal against Chicago last night will sucker Millsbury or Slats to give us something for him.





Semenov - killed our defense. He was supposed to step in and play on the second pairing. His exit forced Ullie, Cross and Staois to play more than they should. Damn you Semmy.

Circus

Jussi Markkanen - I think Jussi is a very solid backup or partner goalie. I really thought he could be more, but I'm not sure he can play any more than 55 games a year. Still, not as horrible as some would make it out.




Ty Conklin - I may have jumped the gun based on last night's performance. I admit it, I have blinkers. I really want him to do well, but I really don't think he is very good. I hope he proves me wrong.






Random Guys

Mike Morrison - I'm not sure what else he could have done to impress the coaches. Had one and a half tough games, but otherwise was pretty solid. I think he is gone.

Schremp - after watching him in the Russia-USA game, I'm glad we didn't bring him up. Slow, out of position, lazy, and two ridiculously stupid penalties at the end of the game. Of course, the entire US team was pretty exhausted yesterday. That WJC format just kills teams that don't come first in their pool.

Rod Phillips - God knows I love Rod, but the year off really hurt him. Constantly behind the play and searching for names. Still, not many can call a fight like Rod, and not many home town announcers are as tough on the team as he is. Morely is as solid as he has ever been.

Overall, I like the way we are headed. Clearly playoff bound and I'm betting with home ice.

The sharp-looking new blog Abel to Yzerman sent us this candid snap from the Hawks-Flames game on Monday afternoon. Isn't this pretty much a great example of the lasting image most of us will retain of Barnaby after he's gone? (That, or him chirping at the other penalty box?)

For years now, the conventional wisdom on Barnaby is that he's one of these guys that players hate when he's on the other team, but love having on their own. To me, the evidence is basically that only the first half of that CW is true. Check out his hockeydb.com page; he has 7 career playoff goals, all of which were in the same year ('98 Sabres, when they lost in the East Finals to the Capitals). The following year, the Sabres traded him away in midseason and went on to Game 6 of the Finals. He's now on his 5th team since that trade: doesn't exactly seem like a guy who teams are desperate to keep around, does he? I believe in intangibles; I just happen to think that Barnaby's are all negative. Clearly the Hawks could be paying a rookie $450k for 12pts and 97PIM, instead of paying $1.33M to Matthew Barnaby to yap and turtle.

From the Oiler-Fan-Mixed-Emotions Dept.: Conko the Clown (or are we going with 'Conky' now?) had a shutout last night, ensuring that he remains in the mix despite the belief of most watchers that he's fundamentally and mentally the weakest of their 3 keepers. Two points and a goose-egg are what they are, but it did come against a bad team that played an even worse game.

Oil fans are certainly welcome to weigh their situation against Kipper's possibly crumbling pelvis: his workload (if not his GAA) in the past 2 weeks tells me that his inflammation really isn't all that serious.

And on a non-hockey-related note, Cosh has enlightened us as to Edmonton's city motto for 2006: "Canada's Murder Capital!". This follows 2005's "Nunc Nostra Patientia Pro Exremento Nihilum Est" ('Our Tolerance For Crap is Now Zero') and 2004's "Rock Out With Your C**k Out" (signalling the end of the old tradition of having the Oilers' training camp roster choose the city motto).

[Update]: I forgot, it is another double dip tonight with Canada going up against Finland before (and during) the Oilers game -- get your remote finger warmed up.

Season Record: 21-14-4	Season Record: 13-21-4

Having ignored the media the past few days, and having watched the BofA game with the sound nearly muted, I just now discovered that today's game vs. the Blackhawks starts, like, in 20 minutes (1PM MST, Sportsnet West).

The Hawks remain terrible, and there's nothing that Khabibulin or any other goalie can do about it on an ongoing basis.

Home team notes: the Flames can move into 2nd place in the conference with a win. Also, they play 6 games in the first 18 days of January, then 7 games in the next 12 days. They'd be well-advised to take advantage of the sparse schedule for the next while; it's a rare luxury.

Time for Kipper to break the team record for shutouts in a season (with his 6th). Three-nil for the good guys. Go Flames.

I had a good chuckle at one of mike w's comments after the New Year's Eve Battle of Alberta:

Pronger on Iginla: suddenly I like our chances if we ever meet this jackass team in the playoffs

That-sa good one. Because we all know what a dominant force Chris Pronger has been in past playoff series. Here's the St. Louis Blues' playoff results for the 9 years Pronger was there:
Lost in round 2
Lost in round 1
Lost in round 2
Lost in round 2
Lost in round 1
Lost in round 3
Lost in round 2
Lost in round 1
Lost in round 1

He has won an Olympic gold medal; of course, so has Mr. Iginla. And Pronger helped his team to the Memorial Cup finals, where they lost; fairly impressive, except that Iginla won the Memorial Cup. Twice.

I'm glad mike is comfortable with his money player; despite his recent funk (which is about to end -- bank it), I'm certainly comfortable with mine.

The other good news for Flames fans is that it's clearly time to downgrade Jason Smith's rating from "solid if unspectacular" to "serviceable but slow". Chiclets is now almost useless as a penalty killer, as he's too slow to disrupt anything. He's also frequently a step behind whatever the opposing forwards are doing in his end.

When the playoffs come, four Oiler D-men are going to have to play the other 30 minutes of the game, when Pronger and M-A-B are on the bench. The thought that three of them are probably Jason Smith, Igor Ulanov, and Cory Cross is, well, soothing.

Interesting hockey game New Year's Eve. A lot of weird things happened, and then evened out. Calgary scores a 5-on-3 goal where the original penalty was highly dubious (Langkow's 1st, with JSmith then Moreau in the box), then later Edmonton scores a 5-on-3 goal where the original penalty was highly dubious (Stoll, with Ference then Mush in the box). Oilers score on an accidental deflection where the goalie had no chance (MAB), then the Flames score on an accidental deflection where the goalie had no chance (Huselius' GWG, obviously).

Excellent result, of course (it's good to be king...). Also interesting to note: Zorak's projected standings Sunday translate to at least three awesome 1st-round playoff matchups: Calgary v. Vancouver, Dallas v. Edmonton, Detroit v. Colorado, and Nashville v. LA.

However, I regret to report that for the third time in about a week, my enjoyment of a big Flames win was tempered by frustration at how the game was officiated. Please know a couple of things:

1. I am not generally a complainer about referees (or anything, for that matter :) ). I believe that they're out there doing their job as best they can; a bad call rarely actually costs your team the game; and even on the occasions when they do, these things tend to even out in the long run.
2. I support the calling of obstruction fouls and interference: I am not in favour of wrestling matches.

That said, there are too many penalties being called in the games I've watched recently. And don't tell me to be patient until the players adjust, because that is not the point I'm making. I'm saying that there are penalties being called that should not be penalties in NHL Hockey, which last time I checked, was played by Men, not 12-year-old girls.

For one, a penalty call should involve actual harm, and I don't mean that in the Ouch sense. If Robyn Regehr carries the puck out of the zone and makes a play with Shawn Horcoff's stick in his armpit, I don't see the value in calling a penalty on Horcoff.

Similarly, the word interference implies strongly that the "victim's" actions were somehow impeded or altered by the "offender". If the victim is able to take the identical action that he would have absent the interference, I don't see a value in calling a penalty.

I understand that the counterpoint to this is roughly the slippery slope argument: if the same thing (say, a couple of hooks while backchecking) is a penalty in some situations and not in others, then soon enough it will hardly ever be a penalty and the refs will "let too much go". Also, it penalizes the gutsier players in a sense, because they're the least likely to spin around and fall on a minor hook, whereas the sissies will do it every time.

I might be compelled by this, if there was anything resembling a "bright line" right now, but there isn't. The refs still use their discretion on (say) what is hooking and what isn't. When there is a bright line, you get the Canada-Norway WJC game, where if you touch someone with your stick, it's a penalty. And what was there, 45 minor penalties in that game?

I could ramble on a bit more here, but I won't bother. What I'm saying is this: certain aspects of the way the game is being officiated right now is discouraging, or trying to discourage, behaviour which should not be discouraged in a game played by men for the Ultimate Prize. And it's lessening my enjoyment of the game. I gather this reaction isn't widely shared, at least yet, but it's the way I feel.

I put the blame for the Oilers loss squarely on the shoulders of Mike W who inexplicably asked what the deal was with Shean Donovan, who naturally went out and scored a pair of goals -- his first two of the season. Sigh. It's ok, Mike has apologized so we don't need to lynch him.

I'm really not too upset with the game. It was fun to watch. It is pretty clear that Calgary and Edmonton are the class of the conference. Plus, how can you be upset on a night when Canada upsets the US and when you win at canasta, euchre, Settlers of Catan, and Clue. Terrific evening.