October 17th: Oilers@ Flames
October 18th: Flames @ Oilers
December 31st: Oilers @ Flames
February 21st: Flames @ Oilers
April 10th: Flames @ Oilers
April 11th: Oilers @ Flames

Not a bad way to start the season: Avs, Ducks, and back-to-back against the hated Flames. It's just too bad Jackie Moon isn't the NHL Commissioner, because I'd pay good money to see Brian Burke and Kevin Lowe in a sparring match after that Ducks game. Just toss in a bear, and let the magic happen.

There are only six games head-to-head against Calgary and Vancouver, but such is the price of a balanced NHL schedule. Plus, it means Oilers fans get to watch another game against the Caps on January 13th, and the Strong, Muscular Crosbies on November 7th at Crosby Arena in Crosbyland (please, please, please let that game be on TSN). Myself, I'm putting down November 13th as the game of the year. That's the night Jeff Finger comes to town. Gonna be quite the show. I guarantee it.

It's hard to believe we are just a couple months from training camp, and less than three away from the start of the regular season. It seems like just yesterday that the Oilers knocked the Canucks out of the playoffs. Oh, where has the time gone?


More on the Oilers schedule here and here. More on the Flames schedule here and here.

GOILERS!

What a beautiful day to be an Oilers fan.

I'm a little misty-eyed over here. Carry on.

...Right next to the bed there's usually a dresser or a bureau of some kind, and there's NO ROOM for your stuff on it. Somebody else's shit is on the dresser.

Have you noticed that their stuff is shit and your shit is stuff? God! And you say, "Get that shit offa there and let me put my stuff down!" - George Carlin

Considering they were inactive (and/or struck out) in the UFA market, it looks like the Oilers did pretty well for themselves the past few weeks. From my perch at the south end of the province, my biggest take is that they improved themselves by subtraction.

On Lubo for Stoll/Greene: leaving aside the question of exactly how good, the Oil picked up a good defenseman who the coach can play in all situations comfortably with the knowledge that he'll probably perform well. Those guys aren't rare exactly, but they don't fall out of trees either. A useful acquisition. The real key here, though, was cutting their losses on Stoll and Greene.

Stoll might be missed SH, though MacT & Co. have proven success at coaching guys up to be sound PKers. On the PP, he's good but replaceable. And at EV, I have little doubt that the Oilers will be better for Stoll's departure. I'm not sure exactly how to express this, so perhaps it suffices to say that now that Stoll is gone, Mactavish will find that in all those situations where he leaned on Stoll, there are indeed alternatives, and he will be better off on balance with the alternatives than with Stoll. [Sidebar: can we all agree that MacT's cowbell is faceoffs?]

Matt Greene simply will not be missed. They don't need him. The only reason to keep him around was the sunk cost fallacy, and Lowe smartly avoided that trap. For this contract and at least the next one, Greene looks to be the kind of player who is paid based on who the team hopes he will be, or wishes he was, rather than what he is.

On Cole for Pitkanen: great trade for the Oilers. Erik Cole is a nice solid forward who outscores the opposition; who doesn't need those. And divesting themselves of Pitkanen was almost definitely the right move for the Oilers, particularly given that he wasn't signed yet.

Question: what does Joni Pitkanen do very well that helps your team win? He's an OK defender, but he's not Robyn Regehr. He's OK on the PP -- or at least he looks like he should be -- but he's not good enough to pay as a Big O, PP QB-type defenseman. He skates well with the puck, but isn't always sure what to do with it; he hits but doesn't intimidate. Further to yesterday's post, I think if you're going to hitch your wagon to a defenseman and pay him big dough, he ought to be a really positive difference-maker in at least one area, and I just don't see it. Add in the post-trade rumblings about his attitude (or whatever you want to call it), and trading him seems like the absolute right decision.

On Brule for Torres: the first time I saw Brule play was for the BJs as an 18-year-old, in the 2nd game of the post-lockout season. Partway through the game, brand-new Flame Roman Hamrlik lined him up and broke his breastbone with a shoulder to the chest. Now that is a horrible way to start your pro career. He has shown pretty much squat as a pro, but I think in his case it really is too early to know what he'll be. Apart from Crosby, even the success stories of the '05 draft aren't that far ahead of Brule.

This is a good trade for the Jackets I think, but I'll stop short of saying it's a bad trade for the Oilers. Perhaps they could have gotten a better raffle ticket in exchange, but trading Torres (regardless of cap considerations) has been in the cards for a while now.

Is all this -- in conjunction with the (presumptive) continued improvement of Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, and (possibly) Hemsky -- enough to give the Oil a shot at the NW title, especially given that none of the other 4 teams seem to have made strides? Maybe.

**Dept. of Whoa, whoa, whoa, settle down there: Craig Conroy is a bit overexcited, I think:

"We're not in the offensive mode like we were with Juice (Kristian Huselius) and Tangs (Alex Tanguay), but we're kind of like getting back to the team of '04 with grit," said the veteran Flames centre.

"We'll make it really uncomfortable to play against. Do you really want those guys like (Todd) Bertuzzi and Iggy coming at you and those young guys flying at you, too? I'm starting to see a lot more similarities."

If I can use Bertuzzi and 'grit' in the same sentence next year, I'll be thrilled. And speaking of excitement, I did enjoy this typically frank Craig Mactavish quote, italics mine:

"I can't remember a period of time over the last 15 years where we've been so excited heading into training camp," he said. "We say that every year, mind you, but this year we actually mean it."

Heh. Last season they were despondent heading into training camp, and ecstatic by the end of the pre-season. If it's the opposite this time around, that'd suit me just fine.

I've been enjoying the heck out of my July, and getting quite a bit of work done too, but I do feel like I missed out on the whole Hot Stove/UFA thing. I hope you've been tuning into Five Hole Fanatics; MG has been doing a solid job of debriefing the Flames' moves.

It's extremely tough to divine what the Flames depth chart at forward looks like right now. Apart from Jarome Iginla being the #1 line RW, it's awfully open. If you made me guess, it'd be something like:


I think Keenan is open to playing the Iginla line power-vs.-power, but he's not intent on it... judging by last season, he prefers some balance between the top two lines, which almost definitely means the Langkow is not next to Iginla, because who the hell else is able to anchor a decent EV line besides those two.

I'm pretty sure Bertuzzi starts the season with Iginla... I assume Lombardi has been tabbed for Top 6 duty, with Conroy centring the 3rd line... Rudy informs us that MikeC played RW for the most part last season, which I think fits with need anyway; it also means that his counting numbers aren't likely to be much better next season than they were last, because the 2line RW never gets to play with Iginla.

I think that 3rd line has a chance to be pretty good against a mix of competition... Moss has limited upside as a point producer, but I think he's actually underrated as a two-way player; based on what I know about them, I think it's more likely that Langkow and Moss are propping up Cammy at EV than Langkow trying futilely to drag both Moss and Cammy up the ice.

Sutter's worst move of July has to have been $2.3M X 3 years for Vandermeer; that's just too much money for too long. I have written before that, while there is no magic formula when it comes to signing free agents, there are pitfalls to be avoided. They include:

• Paying too much for someone's counting numbers if they were mostly achieved on the PP and against softer competition
• Giving more than a year or two to someone who could conceivably be displaced in your starting lineup much sooner (there's Jimmy V)
• Giving a one-way contract to someone who is unlikely to be in your Opening Night lineup on merit (cough Brandon Prust)

Another pitfall, IMO, is paying for offense from more than one defenseman, which is why I'm pretty skeptical about the Brian Campbell signing by the Hawks. On the one hand, their PP was pretty lousy last year (24th), and they don't presently have a clear #1 point man who can shoot, distribute, etc., so maybe he was a smart acquisition, in the same manner as he was an excellent acquisition by the Sharks last season. On the other hand, Seabrook and/or Barker are supposed to be growing into that role, and they already have a "do-it-all" d-man in Keith. The Campbell contract only makes sense if he provides a huge marginal advantage over the alternatives, and I'm not at all sure that he does. (And this is setting aside the too-long term, and the fact that he looked very ordinary in the playoffs.)

Just to flesh out that whole point a bit more: the idea, the way I see it, is that when it comes to goals/points, you really only want to pay defensemen for PP production, not EV. For one, d-men just don't put up numbers at even-strength (last season, only 2 dmen had more than 30 EV points, and only 1 had more than 10 EV goals), and for two, a lot of that is a direct consequence of the forwards they're playing with. Yes, it's nice to have a guy who can make a stretch pass, but the difference points-wise between good offensive defensemen and mediocre ones -- at even-strength -- is pretty marginal. Click here: only Kronwall and Lidstrom played D all season and scored more than 1.2EVpts/60; forwards in that range include the likes of Martin Lapointe, Boyd Gordon, Dan Hinote, and Rene Bourque.

**On the topic of bad contracts, I'm thrilled to see that the NW Division's own Colorado Avalanche gave out two of the worst: $4.5M/2yrs for Darcy Tucker, who looks to be even more cooked than Bertuzzi, and $800k for Andrew Raycroft, who is absolutely not an NHL-calibre goalie. No wonder Joe Sakic is taking his time.

• Apparently I'm the only guy who doesn't think Brian Rolston is underrated, so I think $20.25M/4yrs was too much for the Devils to pay for too long.
• Count me among those who think the Redden deal was possibly Sather's worst ever.
• Georges Laraque is an excellent guy to have on board your team, but 3 years at $1.5M per is absolutely inexplicable to me. Along those lines, thankyou thankyou thankyou to the Penguins for getting Eric Godard out of my town.
• I think enough has been said about Jeff Finger and Ron Hainsey
  
• I spent the day after the Finals ended telling everybody that I thought the Capitals were the team to beat in the East next season; I'm less certain of that now. Theodore In, Huet Out isn't a great bargain, though I understand the decision; I also assumed that they would be paying a lot less than $4M for another year of Sergei Fedorov. I would have liked to see them sign at least one player where you could say, "Oh, he'll make them better." They haven't.

On the good deal side:

• I'm with Mirtle and others that Phoenix did well for themselves. Sauer at $7M/4yrs, Fedoruk at $3M/3yrs, and even Hale at $1.4M over 2 years all seem like good value signings. Where I differ with most is in lumping them in with Chicago as up-and-comers; I think the Coyotes have a lot further to go than the Hawks do.
• Duh: the Wings getting Hossa on a 1-year deal is a hell of a coup
• Thrashers do something right, and sign Jason Williams at $2.2M for a year
• On all counts except for the Fleury extension (I'm not a believer) and the above-mentioned Godard signing, I think the Pens did really well for themselves given their options
• Bobby Holik is a good bet to cover 1 year at $2.5M, he does the proverbial little things well
• And I like the $4M x 2 year bet by the Canucks on Demitra; he can be a really tough guy to play against.

I'm going to have to ruminate for a good month before trying to handicap the Northwest in '08/09. Until then, around here, it'll either be fun & frivolity, or dead air. Go Flames.

ONE. I don't hate Todd Bertuzzi. Don't think I ever have, though I certainly have no love for the guy. If he was likable at all to we the fan, I would have eventually felt bad for the guy in about 2005, when he was still being portrayed as uniquely evil for committing an act that -- while not commonplace -- is equaled on the Senseless Violence Scale about 5 or 10 times an NHL season, and is surpassed on the Tragic Consequences Scale every so often too.

TWO. I'm pretty appalled by the Flames' news release announcing the signing, or more to the point, the GM's comments.

“Todd is a proven scorer with the ability to play both wings,” said Sutter. “He expressed to us that he wanted to play in Canada and that desire along with signing him to a one year deal was important to our philosophy. He wanted to play on a good team and it fit our money.

"Additionally, our captain, Jarome Iginla, was a strong supporter of Todd and wanted him on our team.”

There is absolutely zero chance that this backstory about Iginla being instrumental in bringing Bertuzzi on board would have been ignored, or missed, had Sutter not mentioned it in the primary release. As such, it is sooooo.... chicken? weaselly? something... to use the most popular person in your organization as a human shield against fan and media criticism when the buck stops with YOU.

Also Cosh points out the following via IM:

...you've got "proven" in there. A word which, as you know, has a special meaning in sports: "A proven X" = "Somebody who stopped being X quite some time ago"

THREE. Speaking of IM, here's an excerpt from another brief chat with Dellow -- I've edited out all the "haw-haw"s and the like from his end:

10:58 AM me: Why do they keep describing him as a power forward? When's the last time he knocked someone off the puck?
10:59 AM Tyler: Did Moore have the puck?
If not, sometime before that.

He follows with the observation about surely Jarome "looking forward to a year in which he plays Pahlsson type minutes". Well, even-strength, it's sure looking like it.

FOUR. Bertuzzi isn't a power forward, certainly not at this point. He's a big forward, but he's not a power forward. Yeah, he fights the odd time, and he looks like a strip club bouncer, and that one time he really lost his shit, but 90+% of the time he's a taller, more Canadian Huselius. Nice touch passes, but not a guy who you're expecting to win three puck battles for every two he loses.

FIVE. I think this qualifies as a smart bet by Sutter, even if per #2 above, he doesn't sound like he has the courage of his convictions. Pardon me for taunting the hockey gods, but how bad can it turn out? Takes over half the locker room through sheer force of personality? I don't think so -- he's on his fifth team since the lockout now, but the problem hasn't been his "presence", it's been that he wasn't worth his salary. Thousands of fans forswearing the Flames on principle? Don't make me laugh.

Turns out well ~= 25-35-60, on a top 10 PP. That's nice value for $1.95M, for a vet UFA certainly. Turns out poorly ~= misses lots of time due to injury, and is ineffective when he plays. That'd be $1.95M down the tubes. But then it's over.

SIX. I mention the PP specifically, because Bertuzzi has been a horrible EV player since the lockout, and a horrible defensive player basically forever (the few seasons before the lockout, he made up for it with GF). In some ways it's hard to understate just how poor his season with the Ducks was; he put up those crappy numbers despite 3+ mins per game on the PP, lots of time with Getzlaf, and no time against top opposing forwards who, by virtue of their top-ness, were liable to have the puck a lot in the Ducks' end. Was he playing through the final effects of back problems and concussion(s), and now he's good? Or is he simply a broken player now?

SEVEN. I hope he's good. I want him to do well. I know I'll be cheering for him as a Flame, because I cheered for him as a 2006 Olympian (even though I didn't think, on merit, he belonged on the team), and I care about the fortunes of the Flames more than I do about those of Team Canada.

EIGHT. The most recent good impression I have of Bertuzzi is the '07 playoffs, as a Wing playing against the Flames. I thought he made a good contribution for them, and he was better than I expected (I had totally written him off as a Tier 1 player by that point). The most recent bad impression I have of Bertuzzi is from the 2nd Ducks/Flames game in Anaheim this season, the one where the Flames hit the iron about 4 times but couldn't come back. Bertuzzi picked a fight with Phaneuf about 5 minutes in, and ended up getting ejected because his sweater wasn't tied down.

For some reason, that made a major impression on me at the time. You decide not to tie your sweater down, because of comfort or whatever, even though the consequences of being busted is a game misconduct? And then not only that, but, with 55 minutes left in the game, you do basically the only thing that can expose the fact that you made this decision? Your judgment hasn't gotten that much better in the past 4 years, has it?

NINE. Go Flames.

Breaking news! The Battle of Alberta has learned that the Edmonton Oilers have signed...nobody...to anything.

Despite a constant barrage of stories from TSN, Sportsnet, The Edmonton Journal, The Edmonton Sun, National Post, Team 1260, some dude in Philly, my mom, L'Osservatore Romano, TMZ, and The Daily Planet, the Oilers did not sign Marian Hossa, Jaromir Jagr, or Georges Laraque to contracts this week. Oh sure, we all had some good times, pretending that a seven-year, sixty-three million dollar contract to a guy putting up Kristian Huselius-like numbers was a great idea, but in the end it was just some dry humping and a bad case of the blue balls. We never did close any deals.

Coming into this season, the Oilers needed to upgrade in three areas: top six scoring, defensive depth, and team toughness. Looking at Lowetide's depth chart today, it looks to me like we are still lacking in two of those areas. We got our top-six scoring and a big body in Erik Cole, but the current roster is still severely lacking in toughness/physicality. There's Cole, Brodziak, Moreau (if he's healthy), and...that's it up front. Considering rivalries with Calgary, Minny and Anaheim, I was hoping we would have added at least one guy who could drop the gloves (and win, which eliminates Stortini) by now. The team also needs another veteran defenceman, someone who can spell Dennis Grebeshkov, Ladislav Smid or Gilbert Gilbert when they need a game off, or fill in for Sheldon Souray when his inevitable injury comes along. So far? No dice.

Is this bothersome? Not really. The remaining holes didn't need to be filled immediately, as they are more about secondary roles than primary ones. But it's probably about time that management and the new owner stop throwing money at the captain of the cheerleading squad. I've seen the teen comedies. That never works out.



p.s. Thanks to Mike, Dave and Cosh for the good time last night. Yeah, you know what I'm talking about.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

"They will overpay."
June 29th
Out: Jarret Stoll, Matte Greene
In: Ľubomír Višňovský

July 1st
Possibly In: Erik Cole, Marián Hossa
Possibly Out: Joni Pitkanen, Marty Reasoner, Curtis Glencross, Lubomir Visnovsky

I guess that five year plan of Kevin Lowe's consisted of "wait until the cavalry arrives." And it has. Hopefully the Oilers don't just try and spend their way to success. Looks like Mr. Katz might have a fun news conference on Wednesday.

Resources
• Spector's Trade Rumours
• NHL Numbers
• James Mirtle

Enjoy the "frenzy," all. Crosby.


***Update***

Erik Cole and Garnage Gilbert Brule in, Raffi Torres and Joni Pitkanen out.

Pretty good Sun headline, eh? Eh? BAM.

Three new pieces on Daryl Katz today in the Edmonton Journal, all by David Staples. They are very interesting stories, in particular "The Impossible Dream," which begins a six-part piece by Staples on Katz and the EIG. Of note: it looks like Patrick LaForge is safe in his job, and it appears that Katz is going to follow the "Why Downtown? It has to be downtown" plan and ask taxpayers to foot the vast majority of the bill on a new downtown arena, despite the fact that he's got the money to pay for it himself, there's little to no economic benefit to citizens to pay for such a venture, and the quality of life of Edmontonians and Oilers hockey fans will not be lessened by the team's continued presence in the current Rexall Place. Sadly, no word yet on buying out the Sheldon Souray contract, or on the coup d'état making Fernando Pisani the Mayor of Edmonton (and my pants*). So, some things change, some things stay the same.

• "Katz pledges 'elite' Oilers"

• "New Oilers owner has kind words for Pocklington"

• "The Impossible Dream"


*currently Honorary Mayor

Having just come back from a golfing long weekend with a bunch of friends, I'm taking off on Friday for 10 days with the family, and will miss the UFA media excitement (Idaho: not really a hockey hotbed).

Here is our old friend Flames Salary Chart, June 25 edition. As noted many times before, I much prefer this illustration to "Flames have $45.X mill committed to 14 players" -- this shows roster spots that must be filled by hook or crook.

So using only non-1st-round minor leaguers and veteran Byron Richie-type UFAs to fill out the roster (and assuming that the Langkow deal is done), Calgary is at about $52.2M. Signing one additional player to a $4.5M/yr deal increases the payroll by $4M, putting them at $56.2M, which is about at or over the cap. Translation: barring buyouts and waivers, they can't spend $4.5M on a UFA. So, who are we potentially looking at?

If I'm the GM, I think I'm targeting Ruslan Fedotenko and Martin Gelinas. RF put up a positive Corsi # and an OK plus/minus last year playing against tough opp with (mostly IIRC) Hunter and Sillinger. His boxcar numbers were meh, helped in part (from the buyer's perspective) by 15 games on the DL. Sutter has seen him good: he scored both TB goals in G7 of the '04 Finals vs. the Flames. I think something like $10M/3 years is actually possible, and would probably pay off.

The apparent departure of Conroy makes it possible, and maybe even desirable, to bring Gelinas back from a political (for lack of a better word) perspective. Martin G. is another guy whose G-A-Pts do not reflect his true value: he missed 25 games due to injury last year, and put up pretty decent rates pulling 3rd line duty against decent competition and without star linemates. He's fit. If you're going to hire a 38-year-old to help your team for a decent price -- and the Flames have few if any other options -- then this is the guy.

Which gives us a roster something like this, which actually gives me a bit of hope for the season. Giordano is apparently signed to a 3-year (1-way!) deal, making either Warrener or Eriksson the #7D. Seems like the practical thing to do there would be to send that guy to the minors, not as a straight-out salary burial per se, but to save a few cents against the cap until someone gets hurt; that cap space may be needed (and multiplies) closer to the trade deadline.

Actually, 4th line aside, I don't mind this lineup. Iginla w/ Cammy and DL is a solid #1 line and PP unit; Lombo between RF and Moss should be able to keep the puck going in the right direction as much as the wrong one, and maybe pot a few goals; I definitely prefer Boyd as a centre, and with Gelinas and Nilson on the wings I think that's pretty workable as an ongoing proposition.

I'm happy with the D; my present mindset is that The Warrener is still serviceable as a 3rd-pair guy. Naturally, I'd love it if Pardy or Negrin or Pelech or somebody stepped up in training camp and bumped Eriksson even further down the depth chart. And in goal... Kipper needs to play better. That's 90+% of what needs to be said about the goaltending position. My preference is Curtis Mc-E as the backup, getting 20-25% of the starts, but it's not going to matter much if Kipper can't turn things around a bit.

**Metrognome and Jean Lefebvre had good final takes on the Tanguay situation. This certainly needed to be said, so thanks MG:

This isn't the Senators dealing Havlat because they simply have too many good players to fit under the cap...the Flames, in direct contrast, are in desperate need of top 6 forwards.

No, this is Calgary moving Tanguay because he was crowded out by the suck.

Read the whole thing. And Lefebvre fleshes things out from the Tanguay side a bit more. Yes, he did want out. "Frustration at his role" is essentially correct, although he is probably owed a bit more nuance on account of the fact that he performed that role well and certainly didn't sulk. More like, "Frustration that his role virtually assured that his counting numbers would suffer and that he'd be viewed as a bust." JL sums it up nicely:

In a way, Tanguay paid the price for the fact that the other skilled left-winger on the club — Huselius — was not considered a safe option defensively and also that the play of many of the traditional plumbers and checkers — Stephane Yelle, Wayne Primeau and Marcus Nilson — suffered because of age, ineffectiveness and/or injuries.

The punchline -- where the joke is on Tanguay -- is that if Carbo uses him next season that best exploits his roster's varying strengths and weaknesses, it's not going to get much better.

**Lastly... can I request a moratorium from Darryl Sutter going forward on Entry Draft Excuses? Every interview I heard or read from him in the two weeks prior to the draft included very matter-of-fact statements about how glad they were to be picking as high as #17 this year, and that you can't expect miracles from the 20s. If you don't think you can find talent in the position you're given, then trade up! Or at the very least, if you're going to repeatedly trade down, then shut up about the whole thing. Please. Or! -- heaven forbid -- admit and take responsibility for the fact that your record since picking Phaneuf is poor.

Enjoy Christmas in July, everybody⁺⁺. Hope you find what you were hoping for under the tree.

⁺⁺Oiler fans excluded.

So if the headline is "Tanguay Traded", what's the subhed? Mine is something like, "Flames depart draft without second line".

Tyler's piece on Tanguay Out, Cammallieri In is a good place to start; he demonstrates pretty clearly that Mike C is a replacement for Huselius (who was never going to be returning, and still isn't), not for Tanguay. Which isn't a disaster in and of itself, far from it. A need has been addressed -- a skilled LW to play with Iginla on the #1 line and the #1 PP unit who doesn't cost the moon.

But it was a bad trade, and I have (I think) three things to say about apart from my previous take.

1) The Flames no longer have a second line. The three players who made it up are either traded (Tanguay) or unlikely to return as UFAs (Conroy, Nolan), and there is very little reason to believe that this hole can be filled internally. For starters, Conroy and Nolan were/are barely Top 6 forwards as it is, and the line worked (against the toughest lines on the opposition, lest we forget) because of Tanguay.

Let's review one last time: last season the Flames had one line that consistently outscored whoever they played against (Iginla's), one line who kept their heads above water even against the best opp (generally anchored by Tanguay or Langkow), and two lines that pretty much got torched by all comers.

At the moment (pending July UFA activity, obviously), the Flames aren't going be 1+1+2 like that again next season, they'll be 1+0+3. That will hurt.

2) Yes, it's nice, and just about crucial, that the Flames have a bit of extra cap space now. Now, besides Langkow, they have room to sign a mid-level contributor to a multi-year deal (the forward version of Sarich) instead of being limited to shopping in the $1M/yr-and-under aisle. But context is everything, folks. They could have gained $7M in space by dealing Jarome to (say) the Thrashers for the #3 pick on Friday, but I hope we can all agree that wouldn't have been the wisest way to create that space.

Sutter gained $1.9M by trading away a valuable forward whose trade value was lower than it has ever been. He could have gained $1.5M by buying out Warrener, or $1.4M by sending Primeau to the minors, either of which would have cost the Flames nothing in terms of on-ice performance (and in Primeau's case, would probably improve it).

3) In almost every debriefing of the deal I've read, there has been mention of the idea that "Tanguay never meshed with Mike Keenan", or thereabouts.

Not that it matters now -- and you didn't have to listen too carefully to some of Tanguay's in-season comments to glean that he'd rather be playing with Iginla every shift and piling up points -- but there is absolutely no evidence from on the ice that Keenan disliked Tanguay. (I suppose Keenan can't win; whichever of Tanguay or Huselius wasn't playing with Iginla at the time was deemed to be "in the doghouse".)

Tanguay was 3rd amongst Flames forwards in Time-on-Ice per game, 4 seconds less than Langkow. 3rd in EV TOI/Gm. 4th in PP TOI/Gm. You are welcome to scroll through Tanguay's game log to find the games, or even game, where he rode the end of the pine most of the way, but you will be wasting your time because it didn't happen.

Keenan settled after a while on Huselius with Iginla and Tanguay with Others for a very simple and sensible reason: every line the Flames put together this season (for more than a game or so) with neither Iginla nor Tanguay on it got their asses kicked. And furthermore, with Huselius being (objectively) the better PP option and Tanguay being the better PK option, that also meant that there was less line shuffling on account of special teams, which seemed to work pretty well.

Kipper might rebound next season; Phaneuf might make a further leap; all sorts of things can happen that would lead to the Flames being as good or better than last season in '08/09. But Alex Tanguay is a terrific player who is not easily replaceable, and I am certain that he will be missed. I was glad to get to know him as a hockey player, and hope he does well in Montreal -- I couldn't agree more that he's just what the doctor ordered for those guys.

Paul DePodesta, former General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, assistant GM of the Oakland A's (under Billy Beane), and current front-office assistant for the San Diego Padres, is now writing a blog, and he recently spent some time talking about the MLB draft. I think it's a fascinating read, with some really useful nuggets in it. They include:

---

"Every year presents a different crop of players, and consequently the first evaluation is a macro one. What are the strengths and weaknesses of this draft class? It's commonplace to say, "This draft isn't very deep." That's usually true, though it may also be our subconscious managing expectations. Either way, a more detailed analysis can greatly inform a team's strategy for a particular draft. As I've mentioned before, due to the fact that baseball's draft does not immediately impact the Major League level, teams don't necessarily have to draft for need. This allows for more flexibility in the process on an annual basis."

"We weren't going to take a pitcher just to seemingly balance our draft."

"One of the biggest complaints about most drafts is that certain players were "overdrafted". I'll be honest - I don't really believe in that concept. First of all, our knowledge in terms of where players will be selected is imperfect to put it mildly. Remember, it only takes one team out of thirty to step up and take a player, and then he's gone. There are no do-overs. We may really like a guy, think we can get him in the 4th round or so, and then he's gone in the second. It happens all the time. Therefore, I believe that if you like the player and want him in your system, just take him. My litmus test is how I'm going to react when I hear another team call the player's name: a) a grimace with a head bob, b) an audible "Gah!" with a twist of the neck, or c) nauseous. If (c), then take the player if he's available."

"With each selection, we expected to lose some target players before our next selection, and of course we did, but the exhaustive planning paid off as we anticipated most of the "losses". Our decisions in each round, therefore, were factoring in these expected losses."

"The first round is always the most difficult, especially when you're picking in the bottom third."

---

All bolds mine. DePodesta's ideas can be applied to drafting in any sport, including the NHL. It's simple enough stuff. Not conclusive, obviously, but a sensible start. To summarize:

1) You don't have to draft according to need.
2) Don't take a player at a position just because you haven't already drafted a player at that position.
3) The draft is unpredictable, so if you want a guy, and he's there, take him. Don't get too fancy, playing a game and betting that he'll be there later.
4) Prepare for, and mitigate your losses.
5) Don't give up a 12th overall pick for a 22nd overall pick unless you are absolutely certain your team is going to make the Stanley Cup Finals within a couple years of trading that pick.

Makes sense to me.

As for the Oilers, I have no idea how things are going to pan out this weekend. They gave up what became the 12th overall pick for Dustin Penner, and they got Anaheim's 1st round pick back for Chris Pronger (22nd overall). They don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, so the gap between their first two picks is 81 slots (22nd to 103 overall). Then it's pick numbers 133, 163 and 193. Five picks total, in seven rounds. Needless to say, there is not a lot of margin for error.

My own belief is that teams should always take the best player available, unless there is a dire need for a player at a certain position. I don't think the Oilers are in that position. They need help and depth everywhere. I'd say that the greatest organizational need is at the goaltending position, but I don't think it's a dire need, and I don't think they will find anyone at that position that will help the big club immediately. So I expect them to just take the best guy available, especially in the 1st round (hey, it might even be a goalie).

As for a trade, I don't see it happening. Robert Tychkowski comments today in the Edmonton Sun that it isn't smart to trade a player when his value is low (or probable that someone will trade with you), and I agree with him. I therefore don't see Stoll, Torres or Schremp being moved. The wild card here is Pitkanen. If he's tossed in with any of those guys, a deal may get done. But is Lowe willing to move Pitkanen? He's always been high on the guy, and with Sheldon Souray in your lineup, you need all the defensive depth you can get. Then again, Pitkanen isn't exactly Steve Larmer in terms of endurance, and he hasn't signed the dotted line on a new deal. So he could get moved. Bah. I just switched my own position!

Okay. Here's my story, and I'm sticking to it: no major trades, no moving up, a couple guys from the U.S. college system, a couple guys from the WHL, and one Swede or Finn. No Russians taken. Overall emphasis is on speed and size (as always), and more than a few times over the next few weeks (or years) we hear a variation on the line, "Kevin Lowe really wanted to trade up in this draft, but couldn't find any partners."

Lowetide and YKOIL are the place to be if you want to talk NHL Draft. GOILERS.

The sale of the Oilers to Edmonton billionaire Daryl Katz has been approved by the National Hockey League's Board of Governors. A source said the approval was granted earlier this morning during the governors meeting in New York.

So long, "all-time greatest guys in Edmonton history."

Hello, "elusive pharmaceutical tycoon."

Well, we can see how this narrative is going to be spun for the next little while. Anyway, a big congratulations to Mr. Daryl Katz. Let's hope he can help the Oilers, and the city of Edmonton, win a Stanley Cup. GOILERS!

It's about bloody time. Congratulations as well to a member of the Alberta Sports Hall of Fame, the late Ed Chynoweth, for making it into the Hall in the Builder category. As for Anderson, here's a quick recap of some of his accomplishments:

2: 50 goal seasons (1983-84, 1985-86).

3: 100 point seasons (1981-82, 1982-83, 1985-86).

4: All-Star Game appearances (1984, 1985, 1986, 1988).

5: Career playoff overtime goals, second only to Maurice Richard’s 6.

6: Stanley Cup Championships, 5 with the Edmonton Oilers, and 1 with the New York Rangers.

8: Straight seasons scoring over 30 goals (1980-87).

9: 30 goal seasons (1980-87, 1989-90).

17: Playoff game-winning goals, 5th on the NHL’s all-time list.

93: Career playoff goals, in 225 games. 5th on the NHL's all-time list.

214: Career playoff points, in 225 games. 4th on the NHL's all-time list.

498: Career regular season goals. 42nd on the NHL's all-time list.

1,099: Career points, in 1129 games. 55th on the NHL's all-time list.

Priceless: His drunken rendition of "Simply The Best" in the Oilers locker-room following their 1990 Stanley Cup victory.

The Hockey Hall of Fame announces its 2008 class today. I don't have any particularly strong feelings about it, except maybe that Pavel Bure absolutely belongs there and Mike Vernon does not. Anyway, one guy I've never given much thought to, if only because I'm resigned to the fact that he'll get in eventually, is Glenn Anderson.

I mention this because I just read Pat/BDHS making the most compelling case for Anderson I've seen:

Let me tell you something about those teams and the talent assembled - at the time Glenn Anderson didn't take a backseat to anybody but Gretzky. What I mean is this - you had Gretzky whose genius was acknowledged (remember these are the years when he was scoring 200 points) and then you had the stars - the sneering bullish Messier, the calm sniper Kurri, the smooth Coffey (greatest skater I have ever seen), the cool and athletic Fuhr and the mercurial explosive Anderson. Then you had the supporting cast - the steady Dmen Lowe and Huddy, the chattering Finn Tikkanen and so on.

My point - a simple one. Anderson did not take a back seat to any of the other stars because he was one with them. [...]

Come to think of it, that's... true. Read the whole thing.

Vaguely related sidebar: in January, I went with my father-in-law and my sons to an Oldtimers game here in L.A. It was one of these semi-charity things where former NHL stars (and "stars") play the Police/Fire team -- I think how it works is the NHL vets get the ticket sales (and a chance to sell memorabilia), while the charity benefits by selling 6 or 8 roster spots on the Oldtimers team and running a 50/50.

Only two things worth noting from the experience. One was that a stunning proportion of the NHL vets were guys I booed at one time or another when they were in the league: Glenn Anderson (an Oiler, also filthy with the stick), Gaston Gingras ('86 Hab who beat the Flames in the SCF), Jimmy Mann (thug with the Jets in the early days of the Smythe), and Gary Leeman (who didn't deserve them quite as much as Flames GM Doug Risebrough, but whatever).

The other was that the goalie for the Police team had what I can only assume was both the best and luckiest game of his life, and stoned Anderson dead over and over and over and over again. It was gobsmacking.

**Bill Simmons makes a couple of familiar points in his latest magazine column, but I lot better than I did. This is why he writes about sports for a living and I write about fire alarm systems:

...a great tennis career always unfolds the same way: Guy kills himself for a few years getting to the top and staying there; guy gets bored; guy starts sleeping with actresses/models; guy drops in the rankings; guy makes a brief resurgence; guy loses hair and retires; guy disappears forever. This has to have happened 47 times since I was 10. I'd argue that we haven't attached ourselves to Federer because we know another Federer will eventually come off the assembly line. Because one always does.

**Also under the heading of Things I Don't Have Strong Feelings About, the draft is this weekend and the Flames should be picking up the best prospect they've had since Phaneuf. I'm not too concerned about whether Sutter takes a forward or a defenceman (though a homerun with a forward would be the best case scenario); I just hope he picks up some skill.

Since the #14 and #17 TSN prospects (Zach Boychuk and Luca Sbisa) played for the Lethbridge Hurricanes this season, I thought I'd phone up my buddy Mike who has season tickets, and get a scouting report on the two. His take, roughly:

Boychuk is talented, but small; Sbisa is a nice stay-at-home defenceman with some talent. I'd take Sbisa first, I think he'll go further than Boychuk.

Interesting, I thought. If I'm drafting a small (5'-9") forward in the middle of the first round, I'd like it to be someone who impresses the hell out of the people who watch him all the time. (Something like, "If he gets a fair shot despite his size, he'll make it."). If Boychuk is still available for the Flames at #17, I won't mind if they pass on him, which is not something I would have said half an hour ago.

Metrognome reviews the Sutter era at the draft table here; Lefebvre relays some pre-draft comments from the GM here.

**And finally, today's happy news: Glenn Healy Leaving TV. I thought the Loch Ness Monster was a nice concept, but his ratio of Words Spoken to Insight Provided was way, way too high.

Rejoice, or curse: Roger Millions is out as the voice of the Flames on Rogers Sportsnet. My view: it's a shame. He is strong technically, his verbal quirks and pet phrases don't bother me any more than those of any other broadcaster, and I think he calls it pretty straight. Most of the Oiler fans around here find him to be a brutal homer, but I don't agree; though he called the games from the Flames' "perspective", and no doubt he wanted them to do well, he wasn't constantly bullshitting the viewer about what was happening on the ice -- very little Flames apologia. (Reinforcing my opinion: this CPuck thread is pretty balanced between posters who found him too homerish and those who found him too negative.)

The new guy is Peter Loubardias -- another guy who cut his teeth doing junior games on the radio in Saskatchewan. I have generally warm feelings about him -- you gotta like his enthusiasm ("Can you... believe... what we... just saw!!!"). And hey, maybe he'll have better luck than Millions eliciting informative and/or entertaining comments from Charlie Simmer.

That's right, Chuck's back... if there's any element of this situation that must be eating Roger Millions from the inside right now, it's that someone or some committee took a look at last season's broadcasts and concluded that the problem (such as it is) was with him, rather than the analyst-who-doesn't-analyze (or if you prefer, the colourless colour commentator).

I had one beef with Millions in previous seasons (tilting at windmills, basically), and I thought he was excellent in this regard this past season.

No word yet on who will be the relief guy on Oilers broadcasts when Kevin Quinn bugs out to Mexico, or whatever he does in the middle of winter. Also, no word on Jamie Thomas, as Millions is replacing him as host. I have slightly more than a passing interest in Mr. Thomas' career... he was two grades ahead of me all through school in Cochrane, and when I moved to Lethbridge in '98, I was more than a bit surprised to find him working as the sports reporter on our one local TV station. At any rate, best of luck to him.

And speaking of homer broadcasters... seriously, by relative standards, Roger Millions is not a homer in the slightest. I spent a couple of hours yesterday listening to the WGN broadcast of Cubs-Braves, and Ron Santo is the most appalling (yet hilarious) homer in the history of homers. Constantly refers to the Cubbies as "we" (e.g. "we really need to get the leadoff man on here"), and cheers -- I mean really cheers -- when they do something good. Yells "All Right!!!" and jumps up and down (metaphorically).

Also, a slightly red-faced update to my Wednesday post: as it turns out, I didn't know the correct identity of my favourite baseball radio guy. The outstanding Padres guy is not Jerry Coleman, who is a gravelly-voiced part-timer now, but Ted Leitner, who has a high-paced baritone delivery and is merely in his 28th year on the crew.

Finally, I've been mulling yesterday's revisitation of the 1998 draft, and I think in some instances I did a pretty crappy job of following my own criteria. Just as one example, I'm not a big Brad Stuart fan (it took until this season's playoffs for his proper niche to be widely understood), but he has been a useful player for one team or another since he was 19. You can't say that at all about (e.g.) David Legwand, even though I would rather have Legwand on my team today. So Stuart should probably be higher based on his total career contributions, as should a couple of other guys.

Congratulations to Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf on their selection as 1st Team All-Stars. Go Flames.