That was all too effing familiar. I feel just like this. I'm going to watch Scrubs.

You can't stop Tyler Arnason and Ken Klee, you can only hope to contain them. Hey, if this gets really out of hand, does Torres punch Liles in the back of the head, or is that more of a Moreau job?

Item: Flames set to retire Mike Vernon's No. 30

Good deal. It's been a long time since the club did this; the only other number Calgary has retired is Lanny's #9 (I had the good fortune to be there, too, before a game in the 89/90 season against Hartford). I was never really a "fan" of his, but I evolved over time into a supporter.

Mainly, I felt like the average fan was way too hard on him (Calgary fans pre-Kipper were brutal on goalies in general). I thought the criticism about not making the one big save, especially contrasted against the constant BS praise for Grant Fuhr, was bogus.

[I still remember the first time I heard the ancient goalie joke, Calgary variation:
Friend: Hey, did you hear Mike Vernon almost got hit by the C-Train yesterday?
Matt (genuinely intrigued): No, really?
Friend: Yeah, luckily he squared up and it went through his legs.]

Vernon is also a hometown boy (first hockey game I ever attended, he was in net for the WHL's Wranglers), and he's a genuine character. There's always been rumours about him, and by "rumours" I mean "things that are obviously true, but that media are too polite to discuss directly". Al Macneil was on the radio yesterday talking about him, and said roughly, "You know, he liked to have a good time, but on game day he was always ready to play." Peter Maher and Rob Kerr were discussing him back in the summer, too, I believe in reference to his future in the game (i.e. scouting, coaching, broadcasting, none of the above). I paraphrase:

Kerr: Vernon's never really been known as a thoughtful type, a student of the game, has he, Pete?
Maher: [eight-second belly laugh]

And the legend lives on -- here is the song that one corner of my C-Train car was singing after the G6 victory to win the '04 WCF (I report, you decide):


I swear I'm not kidding.

Record: 11-11-2		Record: 13-8-2
	Preview

• I erroneously added a loss to the Oilers in the standings in the sidebar. It has been corrected. My apologies.

• Your 1st place Edmonton Oilers play their third game against the Colorado Avalanche this evening. The Oilers have played all their Northwest Division rivals at least twice already this season, with the exception of the Minnesota Wild, who they have yet to face. I don't normally desire to see the Wild play anybody, let alone the Oilers, but this year is different. I'd like to see how the Oilers match up. The two teams don't actually meet for two more weeks, on December 14th.

• It remains uncertain how long Ales Hemsky will be out for, but it will likely be at least a couple weeks. The Oilers have called up Marc-Antoine Pouliot, who, unlike other call-ups before him, will actually see some ice time. The Oilers roster is pretty banged up right now, with Hemsky, Ethan Moreau, Steve Staios, Shawn Horcoff, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Jussi Markkanen all either injured or ill. Joanne Ireland is reporting that Horcoff, Staios and Markkanen will all likely be in the lineup this evening, while Bergeron is still questionable. He apparently has pneumonia, so I don't even know why his playing is being considered. The Oilers should play Danny Syvret.

• The injuries mean that lines will be shuffled. Petr Sykora is going to have to find a couple partners to dance with, for example. I don't know what Craig MacTavish is going to do, since some of the others who were in slumps (Pisani, Horcoff, Torres, Stoll) have played much better of late, and probably should be left with their linemates. Then again, other than the first line (Smyth, Horcoff, Pisani) and the Hemsky/Sykora pair, it's been a blender all year. I suppose it will just continue. I'd put Sykora on a line with Stoll and Torres, myself, or maybe Stoll and Winchester.

• The Oilers have scored power play goals in 13 of 23 games this season. The breakdown is below, in red. Beneath that list is another, indicating who the Oilers have scored against, and where that team stands in the NHL's penalty kill rankings. It's interesting, but perhaps unimportant, that of the 21 goals the Oilers have scored on the power play this season, 14 have come against teams in the bottom 7 of the penalty kill rankings. In fact, only 3 goals have come against top ten penalty killing teams.





• The Oilers have allowed powerplay goals in 8 of 23 games. The breakdown is below, in red. Beneath that list is another, indicating who has scored on the Oilers, and where that team stands in the NHL's power play rankings. It's interesting, but perhaps unimportant, that of the 11 powerplay goals the Oilers have given up this season, 4 have come against the top two power play teams in the league. 6 have come against teams in the bottom 7 of the power play rankings.





• I'm pretty sure there is zero value in what I just pointed out about the power play and penalty kill. I know I'm blurring cause and effect, for example, implying that the Oilers can only score against teams with a bad penalty kill, when in fact the teams may have bad penalty kill rankings because the Oilers scored on them. But I think if it was a stat followed over the length of the year, it might provide some insight into both special teams units. It would be like looking at strength of schedule, except for the special teams. Or I'm totally out to lunch. Vic? RiversQ? Tyler?

• Don't forget to vote today and tomorrow for The Battle of Alberta in the Canadian Blog Awards. We made a strong move yesterday, and need your help in securing a victory. Remember, only communists support basketball.

Prediction: I'm going to see 321 to -678, Oilers, then go back and change the score after the game is over. That has to be what Matt is doing, right? If not, I need him to buy me some lottery tickets.

***Screen captures taken from NHL.com

Lowetide:

Oilers have both Steve Staios and Marc-Andre Bergeron out of the lineup for this evening's tilt with Anaheim. This means the Oilers 6 Dmen will be Jason Smith, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Ladislav Smid, Jan Hejda, Matt Greene and Syvret. [Ed. - The ill MAB did dress, not Syvret, but played only 6:01.]

I'm a big time supporter of Kevin Lowe but this is shameful.

Ray Ferraro:

On the difference between last year's Oil and this squad: "Their defense is nowhere near as mobile or efficient with the puck, and that makes their forwards not as effective as they should be. They rarely get a clean, direct pass. They always seem to take a pass swung around and along the boards. So, I would say, in general, the team is not as good. But there is no chance this defense is going to be the group that they go forward with and I don't think they will wait until trade deadline time. If a puck-mover becomes available, I think they are interested."

On what he misses most about Chris Pronger: "Aside from his puck moving and power-play poise, the 28 minutes a game he plays allows everyone else to slow down to where they are most comfortable and most effective. Asking Jason Smith and Steve Staios to play heavy minutes is too much. So, you lose Pronger's 27 minutes, and they're kind of being replaced by Daniel Tjarnqvist, and there of course is no comparison."

I could go on, but won't. In fairness, there's hardly a team in the NHL that doesn't need (or at least could really use) a solid, 2-way defenseman who can move the puck and play 24 minutes a night. Same goes with more experienced, capable depth on the blue line. Same goes with a D-man who can play the point (productively) on the blue line.

But surely, today of all days, it's appropriate to note that Kevin Lowe is the only GM in the league who has recently had sufficiently valuable trade bait with which to acquire such assets. He failed to do so, and unlike many of his supporters, I don't see how what can be acquired nearer the trade deadline for Stoll or Schremp or 1st-round picks will be a better deal than the opportunity already missed.

Isn't the Oilers' time now? Do they really want to jack around near the playoff bubble again? (I know MacT doesn't know it any other way, but jeez...) I find the lack of urgency and the lack of high expectations from just about every corner of Oiler-land to be baffling.

The Oilers have had a pretty good early season, but they have a glaring weakness (they're 14th in Shots Against/gm right now, last year they were 1st). The "Let's Wait And See Just How Bad Things Are, and/or if The Price-to-Correct Goes Down" approach seems... dubious, and it has since July 3rd.

**There are three days left in voting for the Canadian Blog Awards, and the Battle of Alberta needs your help. We came second in Round 1 behind the pretty funny RaptorBlog, and although the running tally for Round 2 (and Final) hides the blog names, I assume we are sitting second again.

It looks like this: RaptorBlog went out to about a 100-vote lead before Andy noted on Monday morning what was going on; since then, the margin has stayed the same. I'm certain that with your 3 votes (today, tomorrow, and Friday), we can take the lead on the homestretch. Please and thank you!

(FYI, the header of this post comes from the classic Limp Handshake episode of King of the Hill.)

**Steve Ovadia points to a Scott Burnside piece excoriating the Blackhawks organization, saying, "..it's just a little angrier than I'm used to." Indeed, although the Razor's take (employed by the NHL's broadcast partner!) is both funnier and more devastating:

The game tomorrow should be a treat, what with the Hawks firing another coach and going in yet "another direction".

What a short-sighted, Neanderthalian, and moribund orginaization they are.

How many times a day do you think Robidas, Klemm, and Barnaby thank the hockey gods that they're not there anymore. And Modano must break into cold sweats when he is reminded that he could have signed with them.

We'll be the only TV for the game (the Blackhawks don't televise home games, smart marketing) and there is sure to be a few thousand faithful on hand to sparsely populate the UC for Denis Savard's debut behind the bench.

Good times!

Yowza.

**Don't tease me, Butch! From John Buccigross' column this week (where incidentally, he's switched to pimping Jagr for MVP instead of SNied), as he watches Rangers-Sabres:

16:47: The Sabres are trying to milk this one-goal lead. Rangers fans are booing Ozolinsh. Enter Sandman, exit Sandman. He'll be an Oiler by the new year.

Make the deal, K-Lo! Anyway, further down the page Butch also has a pretty awesome chat with Ray Ferraro: I seriously think most Oiler fans would agree 90+% with his assessment of the team.

Also, it looks like Adam Proteau has someone else to laugh at:

Butch: What's your take on the head injury debate going on and will the league ever have full helmet protection like the NFL?

Ferraro: I think the full face shield in minor hockey and college hockey has resulted in higher NHL hits. I think the full facial protection hurts the game. The more we protect the players, the more dangerous it gets because there is no regard for safety. They haven't done enough with the equipment. They are way too hard. The elbow pads are way too hard. The equipment is too hard and the contact is too hard because guys are coming faster because the clutching and grabbing is gone.

Add another name to the "old people" + "resistant to change" file, eh Adam?

I don't even want to get into that shit-show from last night, other than to say I love Ryan Smyth even more for taking the blame for the loss. I watched the game with Cosh and Avi, plus a couple of hotties, and Cosh remarked that the overtime gaffe should cost Smyth a million bucks on his new deal. He was joking--sorta--but I think Smyth earned it all back with his post-game "I'll take the heat" stance. I'm always sceptical about the effect intangibles have on the outcome of a game, but I certainly don't doubt the effect it has on a fan-base. Yokels like me lap that up. It's stuff like that that makes Smytty what he is in Edmonton, a Golden Hockey God. Amen, Hallelujah, Yes Sir!!!

Anyway, because I refuse to talk about that "game" anymore (I think my mind, and sanity, was obliterated at the 19:44 mark of the 3rd), I thought I'd broach a fun, but vitally important subject that was raised around the table last night. It's obvious that the Oilers have some squee worthy beefcakes on their roster. Stoll, Moreau, Lupul, Sykora and Reasoner immediately come to mind. But do they in fact have the best looking roster in the entire NHL? Has anyone done an "objective" comparison? Has a winner been declared? This is what I, and the others I was with last night, would like to know. Obviously I am no expert in this regard, so I'd like to open the floor up to those who are. Thoughts? Direction? Bueller?

Discuss.

Flames v. Avalanche tonight (7PM MT, RSN West). Calgary lit up the Avs at home last year, certainly for them at least. (The exception being the NW clincher I attended, which was a more Flames-y 2-0 win).

How many bad goals will Theodore/Budaj let in today? I don't know, but it should be fun to watch. How about... a 5-2 win (Tanguay, Ference, and the fans get to fling their headgear when Lombardi gets his 3rd into an empty net). Go Flames.

**I'll be watching Flames-Avs tonight (stay tuned for Game Day), but I'll be interested to hear the reviews of the Oilers PPV telecast tonight. Duhatschek says (Þmc79) that the Oilers are expecting 10,000+ additional purchases of the broadcast.

Clearly these additional purchasers are interested primarily in witnessing the home crowd's treatment of Pronger, so the question is, will the PPV producers give them what they want? Apparently some Edmonton media-types are embarrassed in anticipation; no doubt at least some in the pre-production meeting are pushing for treating it just like every other telecast. That'd be nutty, though: while they don't have to give screen time to filthy and/or libellous signs and T-shirts, there's no reason why they can't document the reality of the evening.

If I had to bet, though, I'd bet that a misplaced sense of propriety rules the day, and that consequently thousands of first-time PPV customers are also last-time customers. Keep me posted.

**Some minor backup to yesterday's take on Trent Yawney: one rough, somewhat unfair measure of "discipline" is (PPOpps minus Times SH). The Hawks are 29th in the NHL this season and were 30th last season, when their opponents had 130 more PPs than they did. That can't be attributed to injuries and loft as easily as their record as a whole; at least, it's more of an indictment of Yawney than not giving enough shifts to Tony Salmelainen.

**Another follow-up to a post yesterday: Increased Player Movement - Myth or Reality? Tidor in the comments said that it explains why so many franchises' Iron Man streaks are from so long ago. I won't be convinced unless I see data. I've been hearing the same complaint from self-described Former NHL Fans since I was 10 years old: "The players these days move around so much I can't keep track of them; it's not like it was."

Add more in the comments if you think of any, but here's a list of players with long, long stretches with one team:

• Recently retired: Yzerman, Daneyko, Bourque, Stevens, Richter
• Active (in min. 10th season): Joe Sakic, Martin Brodeur, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Mats Sundin, Daniel Alfredsson, Saku Koivu, Olaf Kolzig, Mike Modano, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper, Mattias Norstrom, Markus Naslund, Shane Doan, Wade Redden.

Perhaps you can look back at any given time during the 40s-70s and there is a much higher number of players (relative to the # of teams) with long service time at their clubs. But like I say, show me.

**Dennis at IOF has a terrific post today about Pronger, Peca, and the fan-athlete relationship in general. I normally either shrug or roll my eyes at a statement like this...

It just triggered something that I'd known for awhile but something I hate admitting because it really tempers my love for the game and sports in general: the players don't care about nor respect the fans. That's a blanket statement and I guess a few players care but they are in the vast minority.

...but as an element of whole piece, it's pretty compelling.

**Last: not to be forgotten about the Prong Show at Rexall tonight is that the man himself is playing as well as he ever has, Rd1vWings-good. I watched the last two periods of Flames v Ducks on Sunday, and there's no way there's a tougher guy to play against in the league.

His pass to Selanne for the 3-2 go-ahead goal was phenomenal. There was a sequence where a puck caromed off someone's leg and created what looked like a 2-on-1 for the Flames, and Pronger just enveloped Lombardi before he had a chance to do Thing One with the puck. I tried to keep count of his mistakes, or even "imperfect plays". The total was 1 (a bouncing puck got over his stick at the point on the PP).

Earl has a nice breakdown of his numbers compared to Niedermayer. Since their TOI breakdown is virtually identical, it's fair to include special teams GF/GA, and by that measure, Pronger is +30, Niedermayer is +13. As Earl says, those numbers "really aren't that close".

Pronger is 4th in the WC in scoring (4-22-26). He's T-2nd in the league in +/- (+16). He has but 14 PIM (another early-season Lady Byng run?). And, his team has 40 points in 25 games and sits in 1st place in the conference (6 points clear). He's the Hart Trophy front-runner, and I fully expect that this sentiment will be near-unanimous by Christmas. So, Oil fan? Good luck with that tonight...

Beautiful. Glove tap to Kukla.

I actually don't blame Lauren Pronger for anything (nor do I feel I have reason to), and I stopped being angry at Chris Pronger about two weeks into July (although intellectually I find his handling of the situation cowardly and his catch-all excuse completely unsound), but sometimes, the Muses just take you places.

Record: 17-2-6		Record: 13-8-1
	Preview

• Staios and Markkanen are out for the Oilers. Syvret and Deslauriers have been called up, and may draw in. Personally, I would have liked to have seen Tom "Brad" Gilbert get the call up over Syvret, but we all know MacT is going to go with the safe choice (i.e. previous NHL experience). Grinny and Spazzy are probably out for the Ducks, which means Michael Wall and David McKee will likely be the goaltending tandem. As long as the Oilers get more than 11 shots on them through two periods, they should be fine.

• While the Ducks seventeen wins are impressive, don't let anyone fool you with the "they've only lost twice" argument. They've lost six times in overtime. Plus, they lost to the Flyers, despite Philly only getting 4 shots on net over the last two periods. As Earl has pointed out, they also haven't had a very difficult schedule. The Ducks are a good team, maybe even a great team, but they haven't yet proven that they are an elite team.

• Anaheim has the 4th best PP in the NHL (21.6%), and are 9th on the PK (85.4%). Edmonton is 14th (16.8%) on the PP, and 1st on the PK (90.8%).

• Anyone else getting a little tired about the Oilers players fawning over Pronger? I know you are still friends, and a player's loyalty to his city and jersey is mostly a thing of the past (if it ever existed at all), but could you guys at least pretend for a few minutes that he's on the opposing team and that that really bothers you? I'm just waiting for one of them to pull a Jeremy Roenick and tell us we are stupid.

• The Oilers of course traded Chris Pronger for Joffrey Lupul, Ladislav Smid, and two, maybe three, high draft picks. But the trade also freed up some cap space, allowing them to sign players like Lupul and Petr Sykora. Let's take a look how each team has fared with its new players, using some traditional statistics.

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	Plus/Minus	TOI/G	Avg. $	Age
Anaheim Ducks
Chris Pronger	4	22	26	+16	27:28	$6,250,000	32
Edmonton Oilers
Petr Sykora	12	12	24	+2	16:41	$2,900,000	30
Joffrey Lupul	7	5	12	-5	16:12	$2,311,666	23
Ladislav Smid	0	2	2	0	18:26	$915,100	20
Ducks Total	4	22	26	+16	27:28	$6,250,000	32
Oilers Total	19	19	38	-3	51:22	$6,162,666	24.3 (Avg.)

• For good measure, let's look again at how the Ducks have fared against the Oilers in the 21st Century:

Year	Oilers Wins	Ducks Wins	Ties	Ducks Wins In Edmonton
2006-2007	0	1	0	0
2005-2006	8	1	0	1
2003-2004	3	1	0	0
2002-2003	4	0	0	0
2001-2002	3	1	0	0
2000-2001	2	1	1	0
1999-2000	1	1	0	0

Games Played Since 2000	Oilers Wins	Ducks Wins	Ties	Games Played In Edmonton	Ducks Wins In Edmonton	Oilers Winning %	Oilers Winning % At Home
28	21	6	1	15	2	75%	86.6%

• I've been good friends with a guy named Shane O'Bryan for eleven years. Little did I know he'd get beat up one day by Derek Boogard.



• The game is on PPV, but Kinger says it will also be available on TVU.

• Via Kukla, I see that the L.A. Times is reporting that "some fans reportedly plan to pelt him [Pronger] with pacifiers." That's news to me. I'd like the L.A. Times to tell me who "some fans" are.

• Thanks to Eric McErlain for giving us the shout out in his NBC article yesterday.

• John Mackinnon has a great take on Pronger's press conference, in his blog for the Edmonton Journal.

• Earl has some sound advice for the Oilers faithful: look for the name, not the number!

Prediction: 4-2, Oilers. Smytty, Horcoff, Lupul, and Hemsky. Plenty of boos and funny/caustic signs at Rexall, but no Edmonton Handshakes.

Glove tap to MC.

I hope Trent Yawney gets another crack at an HC job in the NHL. While I despised the guy as a Flames player (think 05/06 Cory Cross, except playing 20+ minutes a game), I wrote last year (after his team ended an 8-game Flames winning streak) that it looked like he might make a decent coach. I still think that; he's smart, and I assume he'll learn from Opportunity #1.

Obviously the injuries hurt this year too, though that's been a bit overblown in the post-mortems. Martin Havlat was not going to score 160 points this year: even if he had stayed healthy, he would have gone through a long slump where he looked awful, on account of he's Martin Havlat. Khabibulin has a Cup but has never been a elite (i.e. Top 10) NHL goalie, and often he's been much worse.

Nevertheless: despite all the above plus the fact that surely he was better at his job than Dale Tallon was at his, I still don't know that I could say he deserved to keep his job. Not to put too fine a point on it, but: at every other level of hockey, if your team constantly gets killed because they take more penalties than the other team, that's on the coach. I don't see why that shouldn't be mostly the same in the NHL.

Tyler has noted this a couple of times too; my comment last season after Chicago earned 4 points in Alberta was this:

...if they expect to be a playoff team, they have to stop cheating so damn much.

Yeah.

I found this one too late to put into the roundup from earlier today, and too good to wait til tomorrow.

• Chris Pronger, and Marcia C. Smith, in an article by Marcia C. Smith.

About a dozen Ducks will serve food to more than 15,000 people in the Honda Center parking lot from 11a.m.-4 p.m. as part of the local "We Give Thanks" program.

Ducks newcomer Chris Pronger will be there with wife, Lauren, "because I have a lot to be thankful for this year."

The hard-playing defenseman got the trade he wanted out of Edmonton, where the weather today is expected to be 3 degrees with a windchill of 8-below.

Marcia C. Smith, meet Dan Barnes.

(Updated at bottom)

Adam Proteau of The Hockey News:

I don’t know Ron MacLean. By all accounts, he’s a very nice man who loves the game as much as anyone. But for him to appear on Leafs Lunch radio in Toronto Thursday and imply the NHL’s crackdown on obstruction has created a dangerous working environment for the players – well, that’s just laughable.

Since Proteau's full-time job is analyzing hockey and producing content for a paid publication, he follows this up with a bunch of evidence... bwaaa, hahaha. Of course he doesn't: he just points out that Maclean works with Don Cherry (zing!), and spends the final two-thirds of the piece saying that the only possible reason Ron Maclean could have a problem with things now is that he's resistant to change. Ta-dah!

This ignorant piece is a perfect example of the sorry state of what at times has been considered the "Hockey Bible", but which in 2006 carries absolutely no such cachet. What exactly are they doing at THN to make themselves indispensable to hockey fans? Shouldn't a bunch of hockey watchers, freed from the constraints of day-to-day reporting on specific teams, be producing the most interesting hockey stuff to read? How is it that I read dozens of hockey blogs every day, and yet the only references to what is ostensibly THE hockey periodical are from Lowetide rooting through his back issues?

I'm not defending Maclean's opinion exactly: for one, he doesn't need me, and for two, I don't know that he's right. But it's certainly possible: why shouldn't less holding/more skating lead to more open ice hits, and thus more head shots & injuries? Is that thought ridiculous? You may prefer it that way, many do. If everything reverted, I might.

But, I have ten bucks that says Adam Proteau doesn't know the answer to, "True or False: there have been fewer concussions since the obstruction crackdown." He can laugh away, but he doesn't know.

Here's a spreadsheet that you'll probably find interesting. Colby Cosh, as background for a column in the Western Standard & Mining Stock Brochure, collated the "Iron Man" streaks for the 21 franchises that have been playing since the WHA merger. Check it out, and squint as long as you want, but not one of them has occurred even in part in a year beginning with '2'. I'd like everyone who scoffs at Don Cherry's dangerous old-school attitude to at least pretend to wonder why the Leafs' consecutive games record is held by Tim Horton (dead for 32 years), or why the Oilers' record is held by the guy famous for being the last helmet-less player in the league.

I readily admit that I'm not the guy who sits around worrying about the health and safety of NHL players. But nonetheless, these are serious issues, and they deserve serious, informed analysis -- not just sneering dismissal of people who've been around the game for dozens of years, and yelling MANDATORY VISORS! at the top of your lungs. Laughable, indeed.

UPDATE: This is so completely on topic, I'm not sure why I didn't bring it up earlier. Cosh's most recent WS column online (free reg.) is Revenge of the Prissy Paranoids, which dissects a "senseless and unjust" piece by SI's Michael Farber:

Can Farber's argument really be that the new stick blades are safe, but are inherently deplorable on safety grounds, simply because the NHLPA and its members approve of them? So it seems. "There are so many other safety issues, including the reluctance to make visors mandatory for players entering the league, the absence of no-touch icing... and a permissiveness about how loosely chin straps of the helmets can be worn, that the extra quarter-inch on a blade might not scream out as No. 1 on the to-do list," he writes, without explaining how the issue got onto the "to-do list" at all in a total vacuum of data.

Go read the whole thing, for as he says, "...it's rare to witness the birth of a particular, irrational safety panic."

I imagine more will trickle in as the day goes by, and I'll update.

• Kevin Lowe, in an article by Terry Jones.

"I'm not afraid to bad-mouth Chris Pronger."

• Chris Pronger, in the Edmonton Sun.

"It seems to be a bigger game up there. I don't know why."

• Joffrey Lupul, in an article by Derek Van Diest.

"People are going to come and boo and that's their right. If you buy a ticket, you can come and boo, that's fine, but hopefully it doesn't get too bad. Hopefully the fans will be a little more classy."

• Kelly Hrudey, in an article by Scott McKeen.

"I just think booing, overall, is a shameful thing to do. It makes no sense to me."

• Dan Barnes, in an article by Dan Barnes.

If you cut somebody off on the Santa Ana freeway in Anaheim, you might get shot. Do the same thing on the Whitemud in Edmonton and you might get a salute and a generous offer of free driving lessons.

***Bonus, non-Pronger related article***

• Cal Nichols, in an article by Dan Barnes.

"We've got to make sure we've got a government that deals in the public good, not private agendas. Too often it's too easy for certain people to get favours and deals."

"Cal Nichols? Hi, it's Irony. Just dropped by to say hello." If anyone had any doubt about the identity of the "anonymous backers" behind the idea to build a hockey arena in downtown Edmonton, this story should eliminate it.

Oh, and one more thing. Did anyone else notice that the Oilers "ugly jacket" is eerily similar to the coat worn by Reggie Dunlop in Slap Shot? I watched the movie last night, and only then put two and two together. It would make sense, especially sense Ryan Smyth has modelled his entire look after Steve Hanson.

Thanks to your support, Battle of Alberta has made it into Round 2 of the Canadian Blog Awards, in the "Best Sports Blog" category. Mirtle also made it into the 2nd Round. Voting will be open until Friday, with voters being allowed to vote once a day. I'll leave a button up on the sidebar for any who wish to support us, or others, in the competition.

Word.

***Update***

So when do I start appealing to Mirtle supporters to switch their vote to us? And when do I run negative on Raptor Blog? Now?

Raptor Blog actually announced he wants to increase basketball's presence in our cities. Canadian cities. Children with basketballs. In our cities. In Canada. We did not make this up.

Anyone who doesn't want to hear about Chris Pronger's return to Edmonton on Tuesday should probably ignore their televisions, radios, newspapers and computers over the next few days, because the items are already starting to roll in. In a new Globe & Mail article, Allan Maki goes to the source on Pronger, and that source is Mike Comrie. It's an excellent piece, with lots of tasty treats. While he's not overly critical of Pronger's handling of the situation, for example, he doesn't let him off the hook either:

Some of that toxin bubbled over soon after the Oilers lost the seventh game to the Carolina Hurricanes and Pronger's agent began making cryptic comments about his client wanting out "for personal reasons." Instead of standing up and explaining himself, Pronger skipped town and went on vacation. It was the wrong call.

Maki also reports on some of those bogeymen that are out there, fiendishly haunting the streets of Edmonton.

Gossip flowed; innocent bystanders were caught in the line of vile. There was talk of an extramarital affair, that Pronger had to leave Edmonton to save his marriage and family. Some suspected Pronger's wife, a native of St. Louis, Mo., couldn't take living so far north and issued an ultimatum. It was plausible, but not as juicy as a millionaire hockey player caught in a bad position.

Comrie endured much the same thing. There was speculation he had to be traded because he wasn't liked by his teammates and that he had indulged in an affair with a married woman. In the end, Comrie knew he had to leave even if it meant being hissed at by the same people who once cheered his every move.

Huh. Maki better watch himself. According to Kelly Hrudey, he should be "severely punished" for continuing to "perpetuate these stories."

My favorite bit, however, comes from the mouth of Mike Comrie himself.

"Half the reason they boo you is that they take it personally. They're passionate and they pay their money and buy tickets. But to be honest, it's a lot of propaganda in Edmonton."

By propaganda, Comrie meant the Oilers will always be revered while any player who asks for more money, holds out or demands a trade will be tarred and feathered...

I like this bit because Maki actually has to explain Comrie's statement about "propaganda." And the end result is that what Comrie means is that Oilers fans are, shockingly, fanatical about their team. Wow. That must be a complete anomaly in the sports world (I bet they've never thrown batteries at their own players or cheered a guy getting his neck broken in Philadelphia, or made up shirts in Boston saying an opposing player has AIDS, for example). Who knew? Well, I guess Comrie didn't, and based on past complaints, I guess Chris Pronger didn't either. They're probably going to be unhappy when they come to Edmonton, as I doubt the "propaganda" (read well placed, and sometimes ill-placed, passion) will ever go away. But they should be happy playing the rest of their careers in Anaheim and Phoenix. Very few people there will care to know who they are, let alone criticize and judge them for anything they do on or off the ice.

I had a good time at the Superskills Sunday event at Rexall today. It was packed, despite the freezing, freezing cold. There had to be over 15,000 people there. The boxes were empty, but that was about it. Some other notes:

• Marty Reasoner must be fine, as he participated in several of the competitions. Steve Staois, Ethan Moreau and Jussi Markkanen did not take part. I have no idea why Jussi wasn't there.

• Marc-Andre Bergeron won both the "Fastest Skater" and "Hardest Shot" competition. Matt Greene was the only other Oiler to get his shot over 100MPH.

• Joffrey Lupul won the "King of the Shootout" competition.

• As he went to take his first shot in the "Hardest Shot" competition, Jarret Stoll broke his stick. It was a hilarious moment, and the crowd ate it up. Stoll handled it really well. He was laughing as he fell to the ground, and he just kept on laughing.

• Petr Sykora won the "Shot Accuracy" competition, hitting four targets on five shots. He also gave the best interview of the day, noting that he would have been four for four if someone other than Laddy Smid had been passing to him, and that Hemmer couldn't get his shot up near the top targets.

• Even today, Dwayne Roloson was all business. The only time he cracked a smile was when Jason Smith scored on him during the shootout. I love that guy. Even during a competition for charity, Roli is out to win. And win he did. He looked awesome.

• Smytty of course go the biggest applause, but he looked angry all afternoon. I hope I am reading too much into that.

• The Oilers announced Chris Pronger's return to Edmonton two times. Both times, HUGE boos. And most of the people in the arena were under 12 (they must all be bloggers). It's going to be a gong show on Tuesday. The best part was that the announcer stated that the Oilers' televison partners weren't going to pick up the game against the Ducks, so the Oilers were offering to show it on pay-per-view. Riiiiiight. I'm sure the networks passed on that game, just like I'm sure the Oilers are showing it for $11.95 as some sort of public service.

• The White Team won the competition, 17-7. The lineup for that team was Roli, Smid, Greene, Smytty, Sykora, Pisani, Lupul, Winchester, Horcoff and Reasoner.

Flames @ Ducks, 5PM6PM MT, RSN West. The Ducks have 2 regulation losses this season, one of which was to the Flames. I thought the Flames earned that win, but that's not to say they looked like the better team, as they probably did not: they got a couple of early goals, then battened things down and got some nice goaltending from Kipper.

So, they have something to prove. They need to beat a good team on the road. They also need to quit jacking around and create some separation in the standings between them and the Five Bad Teams in the conference (or is it Seven?), so they can get on with the business of stepping on Edmonton's neck and winning the division.

Prediction: Flames win 3-2 in OT (Phaneuf, Lombardi, Tanguay with the GWG). Scott Niedermayer makes a couple of great looking defensive plays, picks up a PP assist, and finishes -1 on the night. Pronger plays a poor game overall (caught looking ahead, no doubt). Iginla (2 assists & all over) is the 1st star. Go Flames.

I really like Kelly Hrudey on TV; I usually like his Sunday column; and I do not take personal offense in the slightest to the following excerpt, but come on...

But it seems -- and I'm stereotyping here -- these Internet blog people (I admit, I don't know much about blogs) are allowed to create rumours and allegations that are mean, baseless and irresponsible, in my opinion.

Again: I don't care that people have stereotypes about TEH INTARWEB and what goes on here. But what is going on in your own brain when you state an opinion and admit you don't know what you're talking about in the same sentence?

Hrudey's column always has a bit of an unedited feel to it, which I think is part of its charm, but he really could have used a bunch of help on this one: too much of it just doesn't make sense, both in terms of clarity of writing and clarity of thought.

All players, stars or role players, deserve a voice concerning in which city they earn a living.
[...]
They own that right, like we own the right to tell our employers, "I don't want to work here any longer."

That is simply mumbo-jumbo. A voice is not the same as a right, and wishing something were true doesn't make it so. Does the CBA give certain "rights" to Chris Pronger but not Gary Roberts? And whose voice is that when the player signs the contract in the first place?

They [The Internet Blog People - ed.] should be held accountable for spreading false information.

Like, criminally? People who make shit up on the Web lose credibility and then readership, so they are accountable in at least one sense.

These allegations not only harm the intended target but unfairly drag unwitting individuals with no connection to these stories into the fray.

The people dragged through the mud are defenceless.

How so? Chris Pronger has a highly paid agent to speak for him and defend him, and there's about 400 (or 4000) media outlets who would, and do, gladly reprint his comments verbatim. As for the unwitting individuals, I certainly do have sympathy, but "defenceless" is not accurate. At worst, they have access to the very same methods (e.g. the application I'm using right now) as the IBP* (*Internet Blog People - why yes I do find that catchy, and I plan on continuing to use it).

And, for that reason, those people who start or continue to perpetuate these stories without proof should be severely punished.

"Mr. Fenwick, you are charged with the heinous crime of suggesting Chris Pronger banged a TV reporter. How do you plead?" Not guilty -- but even if I was, there's already perfectly good legal channels through which libelled parties can sue for damages. This is how Hrudey wraps up:

If you don't agree with Pronger and his decision, I can accept that. What's not proper is to base your decision on Pronger asking for a move because of the rumours. [...]

Let's all be more determined to see both sides and not be as influenced by what we read or hear.

This is where, if I'm his editor, I say, "OK, so, correct me if I'm wrong, but does your whole point rest on the notion that (A) Edmonton fans are pissed at Pronger leaving because (B) there are rumours that he cheated on his wife? You know it's the other way around, right?"

There is absolutely, positively a lot of room (hell, need) in the hockey world for a column that is unapologetically pro-player. I really hope Hrudey's future efforts are better than this one.

Footnote: today's reading for extra credit is the problem with the word "voices".

"If I were him, I'd shut up for a while and try not to say anything quite so asinine..."

-- Steve Simmons, Toronto Sun, 2006.11.26

As most of you know, Matt and I are apathetic citizens terribly averse to making political points on this site (eyeroll). But I was looking at the Oilers main page tonight--thinking about Superskills Sunday (which I will be attending), as well as some of the stuff I have been reading on the blogs of Paul Wells, Andrew Coyne, and Warren Kinsella about nation-building week in Ottawa (this Michael Bliss article is especially blisstering)--when I stumbled upon the following image:



I know it's not really hockey related, but I thought it was too damn funny (in a painfully ironic sense) to ignore.

Feel free to nicely yell and scream at each other in the comments. It's probably more debate than we'll hear in Parliament next week.

I'll have something up on the Superskills event by Sunday night.

It is presently forty-two degrees Celsius (75F) warmer right now in Los Angeles than it is in Calgary, so I suppose this is as good a time as any for a SoCal road trip. The Flames play the Kings at 830MT, and it's radio only.

The word around the campfire earlier in the week was that Jamie McLennan will probably get his 2nd start of the season tonight, as (A) the Flames play a late-afternoon game against the Ducks tomorrow, and (B) Kings Suck.

This reminded me that back in the Smythe Division days, Rick Wamsley used to joke that the only starts he could count on were against the Kings and the Russians (those mid-season exhibition tours). So I looked it up to see just how much he did play: his three full seasons in Calgary, his GP were 35/36/29. By contrast, the last Flames PPV vs. Boston had a web-poll question: How many games do you predict McLennan will start this season? I forget which middle choice won, but I recall clearly that "5 or fewer" got more votes than "15 or more".

Anyway, as noted, the Kings are not good at all. If the Flames can manage to avoid excessive time in the penalty box, they should win going away. They're due for a scoring explosion; I'm feeling a March-in-St.-Louis vibe, or put another way, Calgary wins 7-2 (3PP, 3EV, 1SH goal; Phaneuf x2, Hamrlik, Huselius, Tanguay, Iginla, and Friesen). Go Flames.

Record: 7-11-2		Record: 12-8-1
	Preview

• The Blackhawks leading goal-scorer is Martin Havlat, with 7. He went on the Injured Reserve list on October 21st. Imagine Ethan Moreau as our leading scorer right now, and you get an idea of how rough a year it's been for the Hawks. Everything bad that could happen, has happened. Havlat is still out, Michael Handzus is gone at least until March, if not all year. Nikolai Khabibulin just got back after breaking his finger. Rene Bourque took a skate across the neck, Clint Malarchuk style. Just a brutal year for the Hawks, which is too bad. They got off to a pretty solid start, going 7-1 in the pre-season, and 4-2 to start off the year. Havlat was on fire (13 points). Then, within about a week, the wheels fell off.

• Considering the year, and how Bill Wirtz has run this once glorious Original Six franchise into the ground, attendance in Chicago hasn't been too bad. The attendance mark has dropped below 12,000 for only two of their home games. It's not great, mind you, as the United Center holds 20,500 for hockey, but I would have thought it would be much worse.

---

Concerning the Oilers, there are two questions floating around the city and the Oilogosphere right now, with a bunch of subsequents.

1) Will Kevin Lowe pick up a defenceman?
• How much cap room does Lowe have?
• Who would Lowe and the coaching staff want?
• Is that player available?
• What else would it cost the Oilers?

I really have no idea if Lowe will pick up a defenceman. There has been alot of clamour about it in the Edmonton Journal, and both Dennis and LT think it is an absolute necessity. I lean more towards what Tyler has recently noted, which is that "you can't have everything and a good goalie will cover a lot of faults." I agree, and still hold that we are better off today with Roli and our defensive pairings than we were a year ago with Conkannen and the defensive pairings (which did not yet include Spacek and Tarnstrom).

Obviously, everybody would love to have a premier defenceman, someone who can play well in their own zone, play a solid transition game, and contribute on the powerplay. I am sure Lowe is no exception. But the fact that it is a universal desire amongst GMs raises the cost, as well as the competition for available talent. Looking at up-to-date cap estimates from Irish Blues, you can see that the Oilers do have room for a player addition. I've isolated their current cap estimate in the table below:

Estimated Payroll Room, November 23, 2006

Salary To Date	Allowable Insurance	Injurt Allowance	Bonuses	Net Savings	Remaining Salary	Max Inj Allowance	Projected Final	Payroll Room
10,698,025	11,764,706	NA	120,833	1,066,681	28,627,017	NA	39,325,042	4,795,791

*Jacques and Thoresen considered for bonuses. Moreau not considered for injury exemption.

$4.8 million is ample room, especially since there might be more if a player on the current roster is moved elsewhere in a deal. So I don't think there is a problem in that regard. Obviously, the team the Oilers dealt with would also have to have room to take on any returning salary.

As for who is available, the Edmonton Journal keeps throwing the following names out for fodder: Brad Stuart, Lubomir Visnovsky, Mike Van Ryn, Eric Brewer and Dan Boyle. I would imagine the Oilers had someone watching Brent Seabrook Wednesday night in Calgary, and will be watching him again tonight. The Journal names likely indicate who is available, but as of yet they haven't said anything about what teams would want in return, or if any team is even interested in what we may be offering. Fans in Edmonton keep throwing out the names Bergeron, Torres, Schremp, Winchester, Pouliot and others as trade bait. The problem, however, is that the names fans and throw out probably won't align with what opposing GMs are asking for. The fact that we don't care if we lose them probably means opposing teams don't really care to acquire them. I mean, I'd trade Marc-Andre Bergeron and a draft pick for Jay Bouwmeester, or most of the guys listed above (Brewer excluded. I want nothing to do with him), but I'm sceptical about whether that is really going to happen. Of course, sometimes opposing teams don't care what they get back, as they just want to free up some salary room or get rid of a locker room cancer. The point is, right now, no one knows a thing about what is really out on the market, or what the Oilers have put on the table, except for Lowe and his staff. We can keep speculating in the hopes that dreams can come true, and I encourage it (there is a spreadsheet at the bottom of IB's page that will show you how much a player has counted towards the cap already this year. I'd suggest starting there), but right now that is all it is: wishful thinking.

2) When will Kevin Lowe sign Ryan Smyth?
• Will the Oilers be able to afford him?

As Tyler noted here, based on an interview here, Ryan Smyth sounds pretty choked about not having a new deal done. I don't know if the frustration is fair, as it isn't like Lowe and the rest of management have been sitting around doing nothing. But after seeing Steve Staios sign for $10.8 million, the first thing that popped into my mind is, "can we afford Smytty now?" So I thought I'd take a look.

Below is a shot of the Oilers cap payroll for the next several years, all taken from Irish Blues. You'll have to click on it to get a real good view.

(click image to enlarge)

The Oilers total cap payroll (not including bonuses) for the next few years look like this:

06/07 Cap Numbers:52,275,800.0

07/08 Cap Numbers: 39,769,133

08/09 Cap Numbers: 27,205,567

09/10 Cap Numbers: 11,300,000.0

All these numbers are based on all the players who are signed, not on who are playing, or will play.

Assuming the cap doesn't drop below $44 million next year, I think the Oilers have to strike a deal with Smyth around an average of $4-$5.5 million a year. Of course, if the cap goes up, and the EIG decides to increase payroll, then that number can go up. It also depends on which of the signed players actually makes the roster next year. The $4-$5.5 million number puts Smyth close or higher to what Ales Hemsky averages. Frankly, I think Smyth should be happy with that, and I think Lowe and the EIG will create a deal around that average, but I'm not Smyth. On the one hand Hemsky is much younger than Smyth and will surely contribute more in the long-term. On the other, Smyth has given tons back to his team and his community, bleeds Copper and Blue, and is an early candidate for the Hart Trophy this season (at least in my mind), never mind the fact that people in this city would freak if he was to go elsewhere. But that amount may also prevent the Oilers from re-signing any of their other UFA's next season (Sykora, Tjarnqvist, Hejda, Markannen, Petersen & possibly Winchester), and might hoop them on some RFA's as well (not even including the fact they couldn't bring anybody in). Of course, like I said before, if the cap goes up, if some kids don't make the roster, or trades are made this season, more room is available.

I may be looking at this all wrong, but on second-thought I don't understand why Lowe would leave his biggest salary negotiation until the end. Maybe Smyth is right to be angry, because it does seem to indicate that he may not be a big priority with the organization. If he was, wouldn't they make sure to lock him up first, so that they wouldn't lose him because of cap restrictions? I think this deal will get done, but either a) the Oilers are planning future budgets on cap increases that have yet to be secured or b) there is going to have to be some juggling if Lowe doesn't want to be stuck with very little cap room next year.

Prediction: 5-2, Oilers. Thoresen, Horcoff, Sykora, Smytty and Lupul. No deal on a defenceman any time soon, and Smytty signs to a three-year deal by the All-Star break.

Quick turnaround - Calgary hosts Chicago tonight at the Dome (730PM MT). The game is on TSN; that's good news for youwe superstitious types as the Flames played very well in front of Gord & Pierre last season.

They were good but not great last night, I thought. Looked to me like the Flames carried more of the play and had more scoring chances, but the two best players in yesterday's game were wearing the oil drop. Iginla had one of his better games of the season, Hamrlik probably his worst. Ironic that Staios got reupped big yesterday, as Friesen made a classic Staios Face from last season after Sykora "eluded" him on the GWG. (Disclaimer: while I like the Unintentional Comedy as much as anybody, the previous sentence should not be interpreted as praise.)

As for tonight's game, well, a good team at home will beat a bad team on the road a lot more often that not. Whoops, I just slipped. OK, I'll come clean -- yes, I do write those Paul Romanuk "Sports Select Tips" radio ads. Sorry, but I got kids to feed.

Calgary 4 (Tanguay, Huselius, Kobasew, and Jeff Friesen with his first of the season).
Chicago 1 (I dunno, who cares, Jim Vandermeer?)

Go Flames.

I'm off to Calgary this afternoon, to watch my friends play their last show as Blood Dungeon, the best intentionally non-bluegrass bluegrass band name of all-time. The show is at the Ship & Anchor. I'll be the guy with the big smile on my face, thinking about the Oilers being tied for 1st place in the Northwest Division. Alone in 1st place, really, if you count the 1-2 points that were stolen from us. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, I'm leaving BDHS in charge of my side of things. Attack anyone who challenges me, Black Dog! KILL!

p.s. I'll try and do a report for your other blog, Pat.

• I'm glad we won that game, because it certainly wasn't fun to watch. I went with three others, and we all agreed it was a pretty boring game. Some flurries, followed by large chunks of total inactivity from both teams.

• Calgary's lone goal was a fluke play. I can't blame either Roli or Tjarnqvist on it. Roli did not, I repeat, did not, have control of the puck. It was just bad timing. I will say that Roli could have responded much better to the play, however. He got angry, didn't turn around, and didn't put his stick down. He just didn't attempt to get back into the play. It's been said before, but it needs to be said again: the guy is a headcase. I love him, and he absolutely robbed Iginla with a glove save tonight, but he is not a happy man unless everything is going exactly his way. He reminds me of Curtis Joseph in that regard.

• Imagine my horror when I saw these two lines matchup to begin the game: Reasoner/Winchester/Thoresen vs. Langkow/Tanguay/Iginla.

• The Blender officially began at around the 8 minute mark of the 1st, when Marty Reasoner and Jarret Stoll switched lines.

• There were waaay too many Flames jerseys at that game. Way too many. And I didn't even see anybody razzing the people wearing them. Of course, I didn't either, for fear that I might get shivved in the neck. It's not like the old days, when you could just meet in a back alley, tie your arm to another guy's arm, and have a dance off. Man, I miss those days. I'm welling up just thinking about it.

• Iggy was the most dominant Flames forward, but couldn't finish. Other than that, the Flames looked pretty bland. They were successful on the forecheck, and kept the Oilers hemmed in at times, but it rarely led to an excellent scoring chance.

• The Oilers have zero physical presence. Absolutely none. This really angered me, mostly because I wanted to see Phaneuf get his. The Flames defence could have worn teddies rather than shoulder pads tonight. Who knows, maybe they did.

• The Oilers are 1-0 when Matt becomes a new Dad on BoA nights, and 0-1 with Sac. I won't say anymore, because I fear for my life (notice the trend of cowardice?), but it's all there, if you just think about it.

• I did an interview with CBC Radio Edmonton about the site during the 1st intermission. I forgot to ask when it will be aired. I think I sounded like Smytty after a period, so it's really for the best that I don't know when it will be on. I gave it 110%, ground it out in the corners, but I couldn't get all four lines rolling.

• Let me suggest here that it is not the Oilers defence that is most guilty when it comes to getting the puck out of the defensive zone. It's the forwards. No one is skating, and a lot of bad passes are being made. I don't know if they showed it on SportsNet tonight, but there was a moment, at about the nine minute mark of the 2nd, where it looked like Craig MacTavish was going to choke Raffi Torres to death. Torres, Lupul and Reasoner had been on for about two minutes (shift chart here), and simply could not get the puck out. Torres had a clear chance about ninety seconds into his shift, but instead of flipping it out, waited and waited to make a pass. It didn't happen, he turned the puck over, and the Flames had the Oilers hemmed in for another thirty seconds. Roli finally caught the puck, held it, and a t.v. timeout began. Torres skated back to the bench, where MacT was waiting, hands on his hips, jacket wide open. He was just glaring at Raffi. The funny part was, because it was a t.v. timeout, Raffi didn't have to leave the ice. So he didn't. He just skated around, with MacT giving him the evil eye the entire time. MacT would not break his stare. Finally, Torres got on the bench, but refused to look at his coach. MacT bent down, picked up the papers he had obviously lost when he threw open his jacket, and walked over to Raffi. Nothing. Raffi still wouldn't look at him. Finally, MacT just turned away and went to talk to Charlie Huddy. I would have paid good money to have been right behind the bench at that point.

But...back to my point. The Oilers forwards are really having trouble getting the puck out of their zone. Well, everyone is, but I've really noticed it with the forwards. It's like they've been convinced by all those damn Edmonton Journal articles talking about the need for an outlet passer on the defence, and responded in kind. They don't push the puck out along the boards. They don't skate to open ice to look for a pass. They don't fight for loose pucks. Two guys just stand there along the boards, tip the puck when it comes to them, and pray to God that it gets out. Calgary took advantage of this often, and were very aggressive on the forecheck. Lots of times, the defence didn't even try to make a pass. They just flipped it up in the air towards centre ice, and left it for the forwards to chase down.

• The Oilers powerplay got a goal tonight. Thank God. But it wasn't on the 5-on-3. That was wasted by MAB faking the shot about 17,000 times, and the continual passing back and forth along the point. Nor was the goal deserved, although the shot was a beauty. Has this team heard of anything other than a one-timer? Sweet Caroline, our powerplay stinks. And it is not personnel. It's coaching. I really don't blame the players. I'm reading Right Side Up by Paul Wells right now, and there is a great section in it on Paul Martin, "The Board," and groupthink. When I read that section, I immediately thought of the Oilers coaching staff and Kevin Lowe. I won't get into the entire concept of groupthink, but needless to say it doesn't emphasize or encourage new ways of thinking. Existing beliefs are constantly reinforced, and there is a blindspot when it comes to noticing trouble or failure. Sounds like the coaching staff and the Oilers powerplay to me. Fire. Him. Now.

• The only redeeming quality is that the Oilers powerplay isn't as bad a Calgary's. It appears that Craig Simpson must also be coaching the Flames. Slap shot from the point, Phaneuf. Wrist shot from the point, Phaneuf. Snap shot from the point, Phaneuf. Slap shot from the point, Phaneuf.

• Kipper was awful on that second goal. Just awful. No way that should have gone in. Enjoy that one, Flames fans. Your meal ticket just cost you two.

• The BoA Three Stars go to:

3) Fan #3, who was attempting to strip off her jersey and show us some skin on the jumbotron, when the #&@& editor cut off the footage.

2) Fan #2, head to toe in a blue sequined Oilers body suit and painted face. That type of commitment makes me randy.

1) Fan #1, with the sign that had the words, The "C" Stands For Choke beside the Flames logo. As if that wasn't enough, he one-upped himself with his jersey. It was a white, #94 Oilers jersey, with the name "Heart & Soul" across the shoulders. I wish I could shake that man's hand.

Depending on your perspective, I will either have much worse or much better seats for tonight's Battle of Alberta. While Andy is easily blending with the Edgy Rexall Crowd, I'll be perched in a private room at the Lethbridge Regional Hospital, with my wife and the newest member of my family:

Abby (3rd in the series!) was born last night, and she and Mom are doing well. Hope everyone enjoys the game tonight. And (duh) -- Go Flames.

Sacamano Edit: If it wasn't already obvious, it should now be abundantly clear that Matt and I were born to start the BofA blog. Both of our daughters were born on the eve of a Battle of Alberta. Grabia -- you had better get cracking. Congratulations Fenwicks -- we can't wait to meet her!

Two hockey teams, both alike in dignity,
In fair Alberta, where we lay our scene,
From ancient grudge break to new mutiny,
Where civil blood makes civil hands unclean.
From forth the fatal games of these two foes
A pair of numbers-crossed fans make their blog;
Whose misadventured piteous posts
Do with their sudden brilliance spark their fans strife.
The fearful passage of their death-mark'd rivalry,
And the continuance of their commenters’ rage,
Which, but their teams end, neither could remove,
Is now the steady traffic of their blog;
The which if you with patient ears attend,
What you shall miss, their site shall strive to mend.

• Huge game tonight, and I will be there. It's my birthday this week, and a good friend is taking me. YES! Between the game, the release of new Beatles and Jay-Z albums, the receiving of gifts, as well as my eventual birthday gathering--where I shall engage in meaningful conversation on Norse mythology and partake in a nunchuck battle with a deranged, drunken orangutan--it's going to be a fantastic week. My cup runneth over.

• The Oilers are 8-2 at home. The Flames are 3-4-2 on the road. Does that matter? I don't really think so, but it places the Oilers in a positive light, so I'll use it.

• The Oilers called up Zach Stortini Monday. The press release notes his points total for the year before his penalty minutes, but I'm fairly certain that the latter will be of greater import this evening. My guess is that Stortini will be in the lineup to protect Hemsky and others from Calgary's leap-happy defence.

• Andrew Ference has a new playlist up on ITunes. He's obviously a punk rocker, throwing out some Bad Religion, Face to Face, Offspring, Pennywise, Minor Threat and Vandals. But it was his Elliott Smith pick that impressed me the most.

• Brad Winchester is #9 on Mirtle's "Best Players You've Never Heard Of" list. I'm thinking "Winnie" is more Warren Young than Lowell Macdonald, but I'd be happy to be wrong. But the real question is how high Mägni Thöroson the Ëlectric Nörseman will be on Mirtle's list. I'd suggest that James put him in the top three. The Gods will not be mocked, my friend.

• RiversQ has some Even Strength numbers up on IoF. The general thrust is that Oilers haven't been very good at Even Strength. It's definitely worth a look. So too are Tyler's numbers. They take a look at Even Strength Strength of Schedule for the Oilers and Flames. Tyler suggests that both teams have been so-so at Even Strength because they have been playing really tough opponents. Some more traditional numbers worth looking at for tonight's game:

Goals Per Game: Edm 2.90 (15th), Cal 2.78 (18th)

Goals Against Per Game: Edm 2.65 (9th), Cal 2.33 (4th)

Powerplay %: Edm 15.2 (20th), Cal 14.3 (24th)

Penalty Kill %: Edm 90.3 (3rd), Cal 80.4 (24th)

• Needless to say, the Oilers need to take advantge of the Flames weak PK.

• Interesting stat of the day: the Flames have a .538 winning percentage when outshot in a game (12th). They have a .400 winning percentage when they outshoot an opponent (23rd). Obviously this supports the idea that the Flames can only win when they play boring, soulless hockey.

• There's a big Battle of California game tonight night as well. Here's hoping Earl gets hammered, writes some poetry, and beds Sammy Pahlsson.

Prediction: 4-2, Oilers. Smytty, Sykora, Pinto, and Horcoff with the empty-netter to seal the deal. Pinto gets three points on the night. Stortini fights Phaneuf, and I fight Phaneuf's mom. She wins, I dislocate my shoulder, and LT is forced to avenge my defeat by going all Gary Unger on her the next time the two teams meet.

On a scale of 1-10--with 1 being Dave Inkpen and 10 being Wayne Gretzky--how would you rate the Oilers performance so far this season?
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Free polls from Pollhost.com

Connect Logistics [the gov't's booze distributor - ed.] spokesman George Rodziewicz said the backlog is attributed to the province's labour shortage and unprecedented volumes of liquor orders.

Today's Calgary Sun. I have about 6 separate takes on the various implications of this one sentence, but I think I'll just let it hang out there.

Anyone in Calgary attend Rhett Warrener's "Retro Bowlerama" last night? If so, did it involve Dion Phanuef leaving his feet and blindsiding pins? Did Jeff Friesen roll a 1? Was Roman Hamrlik in charge of the jukebox? Did Darren McCarty cover his bets? Was Jamie McLennan able to get any lateral movement on the ball? Did Tony Amonte have one good frame, surrounded by twenty to thirty others where he consistently gutterballed? These are the things I'd like to know.

Joking aside, the event was for a good cause. I hope it raised some quality dough.

Friesen did roll a 1 though, right? For a prize of $1.6 million dollars?

Record: 12-5-1		Record: 10-8-1
	Preview

...when a player [Brad Winchester] turns the corner like this (even at 25) you need to know if he's Warren Young or Lowell MacDonald. He may be Lowell MacDonald.

That's Lowetide fleshing out a thought about players who don't follow the standard development curve. Having watched parts of the Montreal and Detroit games, where Winchester looked frankly dominant at times, I've been thinking along those same lines, but with a different pair of examples.

MacDonald was a guy with 188 career NHL games and only one full season (21G as a 26-year-old) when improbably, at age 31, he ran off seasons of 34, 43, 27, & 30 goals. Young scored 40 goals as a 28/29 year old rookie on Mario Lemieux's right side; then got traded and only lasted another season and a half in the NHL. While it's tempting to attribute his entire breakout to Mario, it's also unfair -- you do not score 40 goals in an NHL season without playing good hockey, regardless of era or linemates. But, for whatever reason, he clearly couldn't sustain whatever he was doing right.

Anyway! The point of this post is not to expand on LT's history lesson, but to talk about Gary Roberts and Paul Kruse. Agewise, at least, they're more comparable to where Winchester is now.

Roberts was drafted 12th in the Lemieux year ('84). While his early career numbers actually resemble what you might expect, it never felt that way as a fan. He was a grinder and a fighter. Crisp threw him on the left side of Nieuwendyk and Loob for his size and grit. His 22-16-38 as a 22-year-old didn't seem like the start of better things to come, at all: mostly tap-ins to open nets off of nifty feeds from Loob, as I recall it (obviously, he was the 3rd (or 4th if Macinnis was on the ice) concern of opposing goalies and D).

But, damned if he didn't break out for 39 goals the next season, and he was full value for them. Dad's seats were in Row 7 on the blueline where the LW entered the attacking zone. I vividly recall Roberts zipping up the left side one BoA that season, and just nuking one over Fuhr's shoulder -- and me sitting there with a perfect view of it thinking, "Holy Shit -- this guy knows how to play now!" And he did -- his career has been plagued with injuries, but he has 414 career goals and was a legit All-Star for a decent stretch in the 90's.

Paul Kruse's development was a bit behind Roberts -- he didn't have the same stats or pedigree -- but he was the same type of player. Mostly out there for his grit and his fists, but could slam home a rebound or cross-ice feed when the opportunity presented itself. Then the 1995 playoffs started against the Sharks, and he looked like he had been possessed by the spirit of Gordie Howe, and I'm barely exaggerating. He went 4-2-6 in that series. I was sitting in the lower bowl behind the net in the G7 OT -- which I'm sure Kruse played half of -- and he was the best player on the ice. I said out loud to my buddy, "Cripes, if Gary Roberts recovers from his neck problems, we're going to have two of him." The only thing that wasn't completely devastating about the loss was that I could hardly wait to take Kruse in the last round of the fall hockey draft.

As it turns out of course, the mojo he had going for that seven games was there-and-gone. His NHL season high thereafter was 7 goals, and he played his last big-league game before he turned 30.

So who is Brad Winchester? When he's going great guns like this, do you Sell High because the reality is he's Paul Kruse? Or do you hold onto him, because the reality is he's becoming Gary Roberts? Everything, including how good he looks right now, suggests he could go either way.

I see someone has nominated us for a Canadian Blog Award (Sports category). Our appreciation goes out to whoever took the time to do that, and of course to everyone who stops by on a regular basis.

1st round voting goes until Tuesday, and personal favourites VCOE and Mirtle are also candidates, so go have your say if it suits you.

Tonight the Detroit Red Wings franchise, for the 6th time in 6 opportunities, failed to extend a 9-game winning streak to 10 games. Are they chokers, or just snakebitten? Ah, I kid -- because I love (I'm looking at you, Bill).

Kipper had a nice game; Kobasew had a stupendous game; Tanguay made another sick pass for an assist; the Flames did not allow an even-strength goal again (add another 45 minutes to these numbers). The special teams are regressing to the mean - why yes that IS a good thing! It's not going perfectly, but: ...they look good...

For tomorrow, though, ich bin ein Michigander. The Wolverines are playing the Buckeyes of The Ohio State University for the Big Ten Championship and a berth in the national title game, and my desire is for Ohio State to "suck it". Go Blue (and sorry about Bo).

Minnesota Wild backup goalie Niklas Backstrom has started exactly one game this season and has 3 Wins -- none of which were in the game he started.

(Put another way, the Wild are a perfect 3/3 in coming back to win after Manny Fernandez has been yanked while trailing.)

The streaking Flames host the streaking Wings tonight at the 'Dome (7PM MST, RSN West). There's a couple of historical-type hooks to the game:

1) The Wings have tied their franchise record with 9 consecutive wins, a figure that has been in most of the game previews. However, according to Peter Maher, this is the 6th time the Wings have won 9 straight, and they've lost the 10th the previous 5 times. (The most recent of these was last season, when they lost #10 in Edmonton -- to an OT goal by the much-beloved Raffi Torres.)

2) Detroit came into Calgary last season at this same time under very similar circumstances. The Flames were riding a 7-game winning streak, and the Wings were 15-3-1. My prediction was "..the streak comes to an end with a non-close result..."; then the Flames came out and played one of their best games of the year, winning 3-1. (They followed up by laying an egg against the Blackhawks, who incidentally are in town Tuesday.)

The human interest angle from George Johnson in the Herald today is what A2Y elegantly dubs the "Chris Chelios is really frigging old, but still playing and playing well" angle. I guess Wings fans would be sick of it, but it's remarkable:

• When you realize he was drafted the same year as Al Macinnis and Ron Francis, you get the idea that he's been around a long time.
• When you realize he was drafted the same year as Dale Hawerchuk and Grant Fuhr, you get the idea that My God, that's impressive, he must be in Unbelievable Shape
• When you realize he was drafted the same year as Tony Tanti - who had 287 career goals but who has already been out of the NHL longer than he was in it - the mind pretty much boggles.

He's been a healthy scratch in just 1 of 17 games; he plays 17:01/Gm; and he leads the team in SH TOI/Gm. His 45th birthday is in January. Wow.

The Flames have still never won a shootout at home (0/3). Prediction: tonight's the night. 1-1 thru 65 minutes, followed by: Amonte goal, Kipper save, Iginla goal, Kipper save, victory horn and large blasts of fire over the slot at both ends. Go Flames.

Oilers coach Craig MacTavish is the subject of a feature article in the November issue of Alberta Venture. The cover of the magazine has a picture of MacT looking all dapper, plus the title, "The Making of a MOTIVATIONAL MASTER" bolded across the front in hot pink. I see, I say to myself, "Motivational master? You mean, like Vince Lombardi, Dean Smith, or motivational master magician Richard Saldan?" Self replies, "Well, duhhhh. Pick it up and read, braniac."

I should have known better. The magazine has always been fluff, and this was just more of the same. The only two insights I gained were that MacT was an assistant coach for Team Canada at the Loto Cup during the lockout, and that he had been accepted into the MBA programs at the University of Alberta and the University of Western Ontario before he decided to take the assistant coaching job with the Rangers in 1997. Both interesting insights, mind you--especially the desire for the MBA--but it wasn't surrounded by any other valuable information. We learn he's a great communicator. Anyone who has watched him in a post-game press conference already knows that (the McGeough blowup being the obvious exception). He's a players coach. We knew that, too. He says he came to appreciate the talents of his players more during the lockout. Okay, that's not bad, but he wasn't forced to play Brad Isbister and Brian Swanson last year, either. The Oilers had some new talent in 05/06 that vastly exceeded the talent level in previous years. He exuded more confidence, believing that the team could win on any given night. He learned to be more patient with his players after coaching his young son's hockey team. He appreciates the training staff. I hate to say this, but...gag, gag, gag.

MacTavish obviously isn't an idiot. He attended Lowell University--where Dwayne Roloson attended, I should add-- and was accepted into the best MBA program in the country, at Western. He was always known as being a smart, cerebral player. He's well spoken, an erudite man by all indications. But the entire article throws out these bloated intangibles as if they are imbued with great meaning. They're not. Maybe it's just me, but I would have liked to have gained some insight into MacT's work habits, specific analytical approaches that he feels lead a team to victory, and/or precise tools and strategies that he employs to motivate his players. Philosophies, decisions and approaches that, you know, business people engage in so as to achieve some level of profit. Something, anything, other than the usual hockey voodoo. But it was not to be. I suppose I was asking for too much, considering the piece was about "motivation," but it really was disappointing. The hot pink lettering and Sam Abouhassan suit gave me so much hope.

Record: 5-9-3		Record: 9-8-1
	Preview

Prediction: "He did a lazy sway ....
He did a lazy sway ....
To the tune o' those Weary Blues.
With his ebony hands on each ivory key
He made that poor piano moan with melody.
O Blues!"

I'll be watching tonight.

• Anyone else notice the tag at the top of mc79hockey?

• I got a great note from Ken Bauer, pointing out that Roli and Kipper have very similar numbers right now: Wins (8 each); SA (474 Roli vs. 483 Kipper); SV% (.922 Roli vs. .925 Kipper); GAA (2.37 Roli vs. 2.26 Kipper). They are also 3rd (Kipper) and 5th (Roli) in TOI.

• Mike W has a fantastic drawing of Anonymous up on Covered in Oil. It's been added to the Glossary.

• I went for a drink with Phoff from Puck This! last Friday, and we had a good talk about hockey in Montreal, amongst other things. I recommend checking out Phoff's piece on Guillaume Latendresse, Patrick Roy, and Guy Bertrand. I'll also add that I broke down NHL players by province ten months ago, the last time that silly idea was raised.

• Kinger has the Liles knee on Smytty up on Alwyas On The Road. I still can't believe he hasn't been suspended. Then again, why should I be surprised?

• YouTube and the NHL have joined forces. It's not surprising, considering the NHL's recent deal with Google Video, and Google's recent acquisition of YouTube. I'm sceptical about the deal, if only because it likely means the NHL will be hawkish about their content on the site. I really hope the NHL embraces the "viral revolution," and lets the fans help market the game.

• On the Forecheck has an amazing post on the "leading practitioners of hockey's Dark Arts." It's my early candidate for Hockey Post of the Year, if for no other reason than it reinforces my great dislike of Mathieu Schneider.

• Ingmar Bergman does some wonderful photoshopping. It might not sit well in this part of the continent, but I dig it.

• I received a nice email from Darren Krill at the Oilers today, asking me to donate our fundraising efforts to the Oilers Community Foundation. I will do so, and let you know when it has been submitted. Here's a screen capture of the email.



• "Blender," "Vaunted," and "Stempniaked," have all been added to the Glossary.

GOILERS!!!

**Darren Eliot has a piece up at SI.com about goaltending workloads. What caught my attention was the sub-hed on the main page: Teams want two top-notch goalies, but one workhorse is still the way to go.

Even relatively new readers of this site will know that this is not the way I see the world, but both sides of the argument are somewhat non-disprovable (in large part because of the fact that the success of either strategy is highly correlated to the talent & performance of a given team's personnel). As such, I'm open to persuasion, but I'd say Eliot fails to make the case.

The distinction he draws between Montreal (a "real" platoon) and BUF/ANA/SJS ("not", since either goalie is inevitable trade bait) seems arbitrary and/or meaningless. But more to the point, Eliot does not consider the difference between a 60-65 game #1 Goalie and a guy who starts virtually every game -- and this is where my questions lie.

Just going quickly through a few numbers, I can't find any recent goalies not named Martin Brodeur who started more than 65 games AND reached the Stanley Cup Finals. Belfour only started 3/4 of the Stars' games. Patrick Roy played between 61 and 65 games in every single one of his years with the Avalanche; in his Cup years with the Habs it was fewer than that. Ward, Roloson, Khabibulin, Kipper, Giguere, Hasek (x2 teams), Irbe -- none of them played more than 65 regular season games. The only exception (besides Brodeur) I'm sure of without going deeper into it was Grant Fuhr with the 87/88 Oilers; he played 75 games and they won the Cup (and it might be appropriate to note here that he got a lot of days off in the postseason, as the Oil won the Cup in a near-minimum 18-1/2 games).

I see the problem from the coach's perspective. You try to take things one game at a time, and starting your best goalie is always going to give you the best chance to win that game. But I'm going to maintain until proven otherwise (by someone other than the Devils) that it's somewhere between wise and critical to (A) have a backup capable of starting 25% of your games, and (B) suck it up and throw him out there.

FYI Postscript: so far this season, the Wild, Canucks, Flames, and Devils have started their #1 in all but one game.

Building on Part I, and Part II, my boy Avi drops some science on a new Oilers arena at SportsMatters. Whatever you were going to do today, add reading this to your list.

Labels: New Arena

Thanx (again) to Sarah, I have discovered a site called LibraryThing. If I don't post here in the next 1-300 days, it's because I'm buried under ISBN's there.

Sometimes, life is just grand.

Many thanks to the lovely Sarah, who directed me towards the footage last night of Stephen Colbert Jr. in an Oilers uniform. Unfortunately, I was out fighting champagne socialists, and missed the show. Hooooooo...that's the price you pay for freedom. The video is here (click on "Eagle Porn" to watch).

The Colbert and Oilers Nations have finally joined forces! Mr. Colbert, if you are reading this, welcome to all that is good, wholesome, and glorious in the game of professional hockey. I know you already have an strong association with the Saginaw Spirit, but we welcome you--through your son--to our family. We think you'll like it here. Your son has aligned himself with the best team in the National Hockey League, and a city with a long and storied history of winning. The Oilers reside within the wealthiest and most conservative of Canada's ten provinces and three territories. Our province has been governed by a Progressive Conservative party for the past 35 years, and by an even more conservative party (Social Credit) for 36 years before that. Our team name derives from the fossil fuel that allows Americans to continue driving their SUV's in and out of suburbia/exurbia (we encourage them to keep doing so). One of our greatest players--Mark Messier--took extreme pleasure in hurting Communists. Furthermore, the Edmonton Oilers have decided to make all of their seven Stanley Cup appearances, and all of their five Stanley Cup victories, during a time of Conservative government rule in Ottawa.* Truly, your son has made an impeccable choice, and we welcome you and your Nation into our fold.

* Corrected in the comments.



**Ronald Reagan is the greatest American President**

See, this is what happens when you demand for Matt and I to both post. You can't keep up, people!

As an update to my post yesterday about the Oilers building an arena in downtown Edmonton--and more importantly, to the concern that public tax dollars would be used to do so--I provide you all with today's press release from the Government of Alberta, announcing its 2nd Quarter Fiscal Update. If you are from outside the province, you might want to stop and admire these lovely items:

Revenue has increased $2.7 billion from budget (up $1.2 billion from First Quarter forecast)
Expense has increased $1.4 billion from budget (up $47 million from First Quarter forecast)
The surplus is forecast at $5.4 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion from budget (up $1.2 billion from First Quarter forecast)

Sadly, to those of us who live in this province, those numbers have become ho-hum. So we'll move along to this interesting bit on Capital Projects, in the area of "Community Facilities, agricultural initiatives and other."

$320 million for aboriginal and affordable housing, agricultural research lands, CDC South Research Station, Stampede and Northlands associations, Commonwealth and McMahon stadiums, Rexall Place and Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary Olympic Development Association

That allocation is brand new, surfacing just today. How much will go to the arenas, and what it will be used for, will apparently "follow over the next week." But it certainly is interesting how we do business here in Alberta, isn't it?

Glove tap to Avi for the link.

Labels: New Arena

Wow. A few people wisely said, upon getting word of the Fighting Leads To Winning study, that despite the absurd-on-their-face conclusions, they'd reserve judgement until they saw the actual paper. Improbably, the paper itself appears to be much dumber than preliminary indications. As Vic notes in the comments below, "This stuff is so bad I don't know where to start."

A laundry list, much of which is from Jeff at Sisu and The Forechecker:

1) The fact that a huge majority of fighting majors are coincidental is not addressed (i.e. as Jeff notes, among others, "...how do you distinguish which team is 'sparked?' If the fighting majors are coincidental, shouldn't both teams receive the same benefit?")

2) For some reason, Points is used as the measure of success while Goals Against is used as the measure of failure. (Forechecker notes dryly, "...one would think that Goals For would be the natural complement to Goals Allowed...")

3) Elementary statistical errors, compounded by a lack of common sense. Jeff (my boldface):

Right away, one glaring mistake stands out. To get useful results out of a regression analysis, you have to have independent variables (PIM, ESG, MAJORS etc.) that correlate highly with your dependent variable (PTS) but correlate minimally with each other. [...] Your independent variables should not depend on one another. That's why they're called independent. [...] Given that, how anyone could describe face-offs won and face-offs lost as separate, independent variables is beyond me. The authors of this paper do just that, and conclude that winning face-offs has a greater absolute effect than losing them.

4) Aaack... here's Forechecker with a bunch:

As wins and win percentage have often been employed in production models dealing with professional sports, the NHL does not base their rankings on either of these measures. In contrast, rankings in the NHL are determined by Team Points, where each team receives two points for a win and one point for a tie after regulation.

Obviously the authors don't understand that Team Points are equivalent to Win Percentage X Games Played.

5) Mostly a criticism of the reportage, but a critical distinction:

First, I believe they mistate the numbers in the paper, which refers to the Number of Majors, not the number of penalty minutes served. The coefficient for Majors to Team Points is indeed 0.07587 in this study. What the National Post overlooks is that if you're going to take a Major, you also need to account for the 5 PIM, which has a coefficient of -0.01087, so the net result (even using the paper's shoddy analysis) would be 0.02152, much less than was cited.

6) Conclusions not indicated by the data:

As for the impact on opponent scoring (0.24 Goals Against reduction per Major), I just don't see that in here. The only table included regarding Goals Against uses logarithmic data, so perhaps I'm missing something.

7) Conclusions not supported by the data again (my boldface, as I can't believe the conclusions that the authors & the Post drew considering):

As MAJORS were found to have a positive effect on PTS and a negative effect on GA, this implies that Major Penalties (more specifically fighting) do in fact aid a team’s success.

First of all, there is nothing in the study that suggests that fighting majors have any different effect than other major penalties. The authors are making an unwise leap here.

8) Conclusions not supported by the data again:

Even though fighting results in a penalty, it is shown to be able to jump start a team into action and elicit better play. For example, if a team is not playing well, a player might start a fight with the opposing team in order to get the momentum of the game back on his side.

Again, there is no evidence in the study to suggest this. They certainly don't look at event sequencing, to see if teams score goals after taking major penalties, or instead take those penalties once they have a safe lead.

I realize I've quoted pretty heavily from the Forechecker's site here, but here's his conclusion as well, because it is note-perfect and needs to be read as widely as possible:

Papers like this only serve to cast a disparaging light on the work of hockey statisticians in general, by publicizing absurd claims which fly in the face of both common sense and critical judgement. I'm an economist by training, but I wouldn't jump to use the economist's toolbox in this field before I truly felt confident that the source material is valid, and that the results would be useful. This study fails in both those areas.

Word.

POSTSCRIPT, an hour later: there's actually a bigger lesson here. Most of us will be astonished -- both at the conclusions the authors draw, and the credulous manner in which it was reported -- because we have a decent understanding of the underlying subject matter. But this kind of thing happens all the time, and it's something to keep in mind next time you're watching your local news reporting on the latest (say) medical study -- especially if it confirms your biases.

Friend of the Battle Colby Cosh has built half a career on pointing out ludicrous flaws in academic studies (here's one on environmental cancer) that went otherwise unchallenged. This dude is an anti-smoking activist who has nonetheless taken it upon himself to dispel myths that are promoted by other activists and reported dutifully by the media. (Example: "In still other words, the claim [that non-smokers exposed to secondhand smoke can inhale up to seven times(!) the amount of nicotine inhaled by a smoker] is mathematically impossible."). Caveat lector, folks.

**Andy and the commenters bring up a lot of good points about a new Oilers building. The academic papers that puncture the Economic Spinoff myth are recommended reading.

I would just like to, once again, raise the "moral" objection to public funding of a hockey rink in Alberta: a substantial segment of the population is willing to voluntarily part with their money to fund NHL hockey, so it is simply disgusting to force the remaining population to pay for it as well.

**Tom Benjamin's reaction to the establishment of the Cold F/X Mark Messier Award exceeded my wildest hopes:

Even if I accept the turning of NHL trophies into commodities and even if I accept the idea that hockey leadership is an ability on a par with goal scoring, and even if we were talking about a dead Hall of Famer... Even if all that, I would not name an elevator after Mark Messier.
[...]
Not only was he an awful player in Vancouver, he was the worst ever captain of the Canucks "leading" them through what was the most divisive and disappointing three year period in team history. Messier floated through the games, he hid from the media after embarassing losses and he chirped on mates who were outworking him. He stole his $20 million. Yet the debacle in Vancouver counts for nothing. It has all but been erased.

No more Mr. Nice Guy indeed.

**News Flash (unless you're fan of one of the Alberta teams, or alternatively, have been paying attention): Derek Boogaard is still only the 2nd-toughest fighter in the NHL. Eric has the video.

**Flames Hole-Digging-Out-Of (?) Roundup
The Flames have now won 5 games in a row (all in 60 mins) and sit in 8th position in the conference, 1pt behind the Oil with a game in hand. The coach had a quote I liked after last night's game: "...I think that's a media creation, where we were way off in some place and all of a sudden we came out of the bush and found a trail. It's different than that."

I'd still like to see him project more optimism when things aren't going well, and the special teams have got to get better (a PPG and a SHG last night are a good start, obviously). But, congratulations and credit to the coach for getting the team back in it early. Also, if you didn't catch the highlights of the 3-0 win last night, and have scoffed at the Flames' skillz, go watch on NHL.com. Tanguay's 2 primary assists were Gold!, and Iginla's 2 secondary assists were the furthest thing from garbage points, especially the sick, tape-to-tape 50-foot pass through traffic on the opener. A few other Flames numbers of note:

• Outscored opponents 15-5 in the 5 wins (home: 9-1 in 3 wins; the team and Kipper clearly have the 'Dome mojo back, and have certainly figured out the matchups they like)
• Have not allowed an even-strength goal since the 1st period of the game in St. Louis; that's 14+ periods, or by my calculations, about 200 minutes of ES play
• As I noted before, that goal was as Regehr was stepping out of the penalty box. The last real 5-on-5 goal the Flames allowed was early in the 1st in Detroit; that's 20+ periods ago, or 298 EV minutes ago. If you're looking for good underlying fundamentals in this streak, Voi-la.

**Lastly, at the risk of infuriating Roger Millions even further: I was semi-grumbling about his verbal quirks during the telecast last night, and Mrs. Matt suggested that a Millions-inspired drinking game might be appropriate. No doubt! I'm a bit rushed at the moment to structure the whole thing, but here's some of the elements I would include to serve as a signal to pick up your glass:

• Describes a wrist-shot or backhand flip as a "blast"
• Uses the phrase "unable to do so"
• Criticizes the "consistency" of the game officials
• Expresses bewilderment at the standard of officiating, without imparting to the viewer what exactly he thinks the problem is (I've watched 30+ of his games now, and despite constant discussion of the officiating, I still have no idea whether he thinks a "harmless" hook or hold should or should not be a penalty)

And the big one, if you're planning on getting plastered:

• FOOTRACE!

Please add your own in the comments. Have a nice day. And, Go Flames.

I first heard of the "fighting equals wins" study on CTV last night, and see now that The National Post, Tom Benjamin, The Sports Economist and Sabermetric Research have been talking about it. The paper itself, called NHL Team Production, is here. It was written by John Heyne, Aju Fenn, and Stacy Brook. I haven't had time to read through the report, but I thought I would put it out there, and let people discuss the issue in the comments. I'll just throw my thoughts, when I formulate any, in there.

***Update*** Mudcrutch talks about it briefly, as well.

Paula Simons has an article in today's Edmonton Journal about the potential for a new hockey arena in downtown Edmonton. Simons sticks to her guns in suggesting that this is all just a suggestion, but there are some revealing and hilarious nuggets in the article. For example:

• The plan's backers went through all the effort of getting a concept design done, but wish to remain "anonymous." They will not be heard from again in the article. No, really.

• The design calls for a glass pyramid to top the rink, similar to the glass pyramids that already top City Hall and the Muttart Conservatory.

• Simons argues that a downtown arena would be good for "bringing life to the city core," but then admits later in the article that neither Rexall or Commonwealth have helped their communities draw in upscale bars and businesses.

• She also argues that it would be good for public transit, based on the idea that one additional station in the downtown area could be built. Oh, and it might spur a west-bound LRT line. Okaaay.

• But wait! No one knows if the Oilers actually want to move! We know the Oilers want a new arena, because Cal Nichols says so right in the article, but maybe they are perfectly happy to stay at Northlands.

• According to Nichols, what is necessary is a public campaign debate. Because "we have to do, not what's right for the Oilers or Northlands or the downtown, but for the city."

• Simons plays the "small-market" card with the "who pays for the new arena" question, and then subtlely drops in the call for "government support" beside the "private investment" call. She also mentions the recent Forbes article on NHL franchise values, but forgot to mention that the team's value is now estimated at $146 million, $76 million more than the EIG orginally paid for the franchise.


So...anybody want to get their Pierre Berton on, and attempt to take a guess at a) who the "anonymous" backers are, b) what they actually want to happen in terms of an arena, and c) what they are attempting to pull off through the placement of this idea? Or is it all too obvious to even try? I know that I can immediately think of two self-interested parties who might be backing this idea. Then again, maybe profit actually has very little to do with motive, and Bruce Wayne just wants to give back to the city that raised him.

Labels: New Arena

The Flames host the Blues tonight (730PM MST, RSN West). First some miscellany:

**I caught about the last 10 minutes of the Oilers game last night, and wish I had been holding a pen, but a few notes from memory:

• Liles should clearly be suspended for what he did to Smyth. Calling that a "knee-on-knee hit" is actually charitable to J-M. Liles was standing still -- it was a trip, and a bloody dangerous one (the same play is illegal in football).
• Was Liles claiming injury? No misconduct or match penalty was recorded -- just a minor -- and yet Laperriere served it for him. Bit of a noodle-scratcher that I can't find an explanation for.
• Chuckled a bit at the love for Roloson's "beautiful save" on Hedjuk from about 3 feet off the goal line. The one angle showed it leaking through his legs and being pushed back in by... I'm sorry, was that Toby Petersen out there making the nice play with 45 seconds left?
• Obviously MacT is still counting on Horcoff for his defensive play, but #10 just does not look right in the attacking end; he's in a legitimate slump. He made a couple plays on the PP that reeked of desperation. The slapper from the top of the circle that misses far side and ends up behind Roloson is just not a play a guy like Horcoff makes when he's going good. Same with the weak cross-ice feed at Pisani that could have been deflected or intercepted by 3 of the 4 penalty killers (and was). It's startling, really. (I'll let Edmontonians in on a secret: Horcoff had a de facto nickname on Flames radio through the playoffs last year, and it was "If Only We Had A Guy Like". As in, just about every time his name came up, it was in the context of If only we had a guy like Shawn Horcoff... Right now we do, only his name is Langkow and he's the same player as he was before.)

**"The 1927 Yankees don't have this degree of representation in the Baseball Hall of Fame..." -- Colby Cosh has the final word on Dick Duff's induction into the HHOF

** Tyler and Tom have both noted a funny (i.e. crying on the inside) quote from Bill Daly, in response to the Forbes story on increased franchise values: "That's not unexpected. That's what the CBA was intended to accomplish." They're both pretty hard on the media too, and fairly, I'd say.

That said, I'm a forgive-and-forget kind of guy. I'd be happy to give everyone a pass on the crappy, way-too-credulous lockout coverage, if only they'd start thinking more critically now. When the lockout ended, I had 3 questions for hockey writers. Briefly:

1. How do you plan on judging whether the new NHL CBA is an improvement over the old one? Is there at least one objective standard that should be met?
2. The owners won and the players lost. If the new CBA is not an improvement, is it the owners fault?
3. And if so, what level of skepticism would it be appropriate to cast on the owners' proposed solution next time?

Happy Christmas, the war is over, but I'd sure be gratified if the people who might have some influence over the next one learned anything from last time.

**Oh yeah, Game Night! Unlike our Western Canadian competitors, the Flames have gotten the job done against the Blues since the lost year. They got Stempniaked (man, that comment thread is funny in retrospect) in the shootout the first game last season, but won the last three, plus the first this season.

The Blues have been pretty much as expected so far this season: better, but not playoffs better. A Flames win tonight is important. If LT can use baseball jargon, I suppose I can use golf...

The Oil's win last night was like birdieing 18 at the end of a weak round; the scorecard (2-2-1 road trip) doesn't really look that bad. A Flames loss tonight would be like finishing a real good round by double-bogeying the par-5 18th: a lot of the progress against par made through a tougher stretch of holes is somewhat nullified by making a 7 when it ought to have been a 4 or a tap-in 5.

Calgary's malodorous special teams (both 26th-ranked) have got to get it together one of these nights. I'm gonna call a 5-1 win, with 3 PP GF, 0 PP GA, and a hat trick for Mr. Alex Tanguay. Go Flames.

You think the Flames are in a big hurry to get Jeff Friesen back in the lineup?

(That is rhetorical, right Coach? Right???)

It's not a very happy time to be a Canucks fan right now. The team is struggling, and their blueline is somewhat decimated. They surrender a 2-0 lead on Saturday to lose to the Flames in regulation. Pavel Bure is passed over for the HHOF in favour of Dick Duff. And now this:

NHL introduces Mark Messier Award

[...] Messier, with input from the league, will select a player in each month who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice.

The HHOF induction ceremonies go this evening in Toronto, and besides Flames owner Harley Hotchkiss being inducted as a builder for whatever it is (nothing personal to the guy, I just don't find anything compelling there), Flames radio play-by-play vet Peter Maher is being honoured as a broadcaster. I'm still feeling slightly guilty about my criticism last month; let me say once again he has been a superb voice of the Flames, and is by every last account an excellent person. Sincere and multiple congratulations to Mr. Maher - Excelsior!!!

I'm trying to take a glass-half-full view of the festivities today, although this really isn't the HHOF's finest year. Why two of four inductees are Builders, ever, is beyond me. And the induction of Dick Duff is astonishing to me, especially when the obvious alternative to me is Pavel Bure. Duff played most of his career in a 6-team league and never once made a 1st or 2nd All-Star Team (sidebar: should there be brackets or quotation marks in there somewhere, or is Dick Richard Duff his real full name?). Most damning, I've been an NHL fan for 26 years -- not exactly a casual one, either -- and until the day his induction was announced, I had never heard of the guy!

Bure on the other hand:

1. Led the league in goal scoring 3 times
2. Made one 1st All-Star Team and two 2nds in a 20+ team league, in spite of ongoing criticism about his defense and mostly-unfair smears of his character
3. Was unquestionably one of the three most exciting players in the NHL for his entire career

Just in general, I guess my take is that it would be impossible to tell the story of the Bure NHL years without talking about Bure, whereas (as noted above) it's not only possible, it's likely, that you could learn all about the Duff NHL years without ever hearing Dick Duff's name.

There's two positives I'm holding onto, though. First is the assumption that, with the mass of retirements over the last couple of years, the HHOF selectors are taking the builders & veterans and "getting them out of the way", so that the next few years can be highly focused on some spectacular hockey careers.

The second is that, in terms of spectacular careers, Patrick Roy gets the spotlight all to himself, and boy does he ever deserve it. I'm happy to give him the Best Goalie Ever label, and he's also a fascinating person. The business of making himself the Quebec Remparts coach after a 1-4 start, and then merely going on to win the Memorial Cup, is sublime. So's this:

Roy's decision to allow an orthodox Jewish player to miss roughly half of the Remparts' games in observance of his religion was almost impossible to wrap one's head around until one read the coach's justification: "It's fun to see someone who knows what he wants. I'm not going to go against this."

Takes one to know one, I guess... leading me to the last thing I wanted to bring up, which is the Olympics. Roy begged off of the 2002 Olympics a month or two before selection time (said he wanted to focus on winning his 5th Cup), and reaction was mixed. There was some criticism of his character (along with some sub-surface anti-French that we also saw every time Ray Bourque passed on an Int'l tourney), but there was also some relief, for lack of a better word. There had been concern that Roy, if selected, would be the no-question #1 goalie, and that maybe that wasn't the best state of affairs considering the 1998 Olympics, where Canada finished 4th in front of Patrick.

It's my opinion, though, that the '98 Olympics is Patrick Roy's most overlooked Great Performance. He was excellent. Unlike 2002 when they went on to gold, Canada was solid from Shift #1 in '98, and it started from the goalie out. They won all their games until the semi against Hasek and the Czechs. Roy allowed one goal through 70 minutes in that game.

In the shootout, Roy and Hasek stopped 9 out of 10 shots. The difference was inches: Lindros' backhand went off the outside of the post and wide, while Reichel's wrister went off the inside of the post and in. This difference got inflated just about immediately: Hasek bolstered his cred as maybe the most talented goalie in history (which is possible), while Roy became the guy who was only starting the bronze medal game because his NHL coach (Crawford) was the Canadian coach.

Maybe Brodeur should have started that last game -- Roy was good, but less than heroic -- but Patrick Roy's overall performance in that whole tournament was outstanding, and only suffers when set against the Hasek/Czech gold medal.

Congratulations today to Patrick Roy, and also to all the other inductees/honourees and their families.

...did we just lose to St. Louis? It was Stempniak, wasn't it? I just know it was.

So I guess I can watch again? Not that I want to, mind you.

Top (Left to Right): Aaron, Kevin, Jeremy, Par, Daniel, Gary, Bobby, Margaret, Allan, Robert, Travis, Steve, Jenn

Bottom (Left to Right): Pleasure Motors, Jeremy, James, Adrian, Darron, Me, Ender (in goalie gear)

Last time, it was water puddles. This time, it was the white stuff. I had a beauty site all picked out, and then it snowed. That caused problems--such as the inability to stick handle or get a proper shot off until about 3 hours into the game--but we made due. In fact, we attacked with vigour. My Battle of Alberta team pulled off the win over Pleasure Motors' Covered in Oil team. The final score was 13-10. We chased two goalies, and had the third one throwing fits. Pleasure Motors obviously feels comfortable with all of us now, as he was attempting to wreak havoc all day by throwing his body around. The big highlight of the game was Bobby catching the blade of his stick in the snow, vaulting himself three feet into the air, and impaling himself. Unfortunately it wasn't caught on film, but imagine Sergei Bubka on a snowy courtyard. Majestic.

My photos are here. Slideshow is here. For the "artsy/high quality" pictures, check out Aaron's photos here, and his slideshow here.

I'm missing names again, so if you drop the names in the comments, or email me, I'll fix it. Consensus seemed to be in having one more game in late November, early December. Then Dave and I will work on the grandaddy of them all, the Christmas Classic.

And yes, I wore my Whalers jersey. It worked. Again. There is a strange power in that sweater, let me tell you.

GOOOOILOGOSPHERE!!!

The Flames visit Vancouver tonight in the back half on the HNIC doubleheader (that's 8PM MST, as is the style at this time). Alain Vigneault is shuffling the Canucks' lines (hello again, Sedinlund!), but as far as I can tell the blueline crew will be the same bunch from Thursday. As of a couple of days ago, this would have been a genuine stumper for me.

Q. Who are Alex Edler, Patrick Couloumbe, and Nathan McIver?

a) The guys who sold YouTube to Google
b) The accused in the Duke lacrosse "case"
c) The executive producers of Corner Gas
d) The Vancouver Canucks 4/5/6 defensemen

It's (d) of course, which goes a little ways towards explaning that 6-0 loss to the Ducks Thursday. And speaking of the Ducks, how about that game last night?

The Ducks are obviously very good. They certainly could have won last night with some different bounces, or poor goaltending. But with respect to George Johnson, I don't know if you can stretch that into would have. It was an interesting first 7 minutes. For the Flames it went roughly like this:

Good shift (Lombardi line), fantastic shift (Iginla line), Langkow penalty, successful PK, good shift (Richie line), Prust penalty, successful PK, Goal, Goal.

Now, if you're familiar with the Calgary Flames hockey club, you may be aware that they're less inclined to take chances with a 2-goal lead. This goes part of the way to explaining the 37-18 shot count (as does the 5-2 PP discrepancy). On the other hand, the Ducks hemmed the Flames in their own zone for long stretches, especially later in the 2nd. On the other hand, the Flames did sprinkle some attacks and scoring chances in there as well (unlike G7, where own-zone pressure was interrupted only by neutral zone turnovers). Who knows! I'll be looking forward to future Ducks-Flames games.

Extra: Earl posts possibly the most famous photo in Saddledome history in his debriefing. I don't remember if I've mentioned this before, but I know that guy. He worked at the golf course I play at for at least a summer (after this photo was taken, too). He insists he was not intoxicated (obviously lying). He also says at least a couple of people nearby stiffed him for the money they said they'd give him if he did it (probably true).

Also, apart from the overall composition, the best part of the photo is definitely the shock/laughter beer coming out the nose of the young lady lower left.

As for tonight, who knows. The Flames won the 1st four matchups last season (1 in S/O) and the Canucks won the last four (2 in OT). Anson Carter and Sami Salo killed the Flames last year; they won't be a problem tonight, but Yo! Luongo! may well be. I enjoyed this bit in the Vancouver Sun:

Remember when we used to make fun of how offensively challenged the Flames were? Well, they still are, but they're scoring more goals than the Canucks. Before their game Friday night, Calgary had averaged 2.64 goals per game and ranked 21st in the NHL. Vancouver is averaging just 2.29 goals per game and is ranked 28th.

Call it 2-1 for the visitors (Tanguay, Phaneuf). Go Flames.

INSTANT UPDATE: Looks like Salo is back. Stay out of the penalty box please, lads. Also, hope the Oilogosphere has fun today.

I can't believe it's been more than a dozen years since Sergei Fedorov won the Hart Trophy. Did you know that apart from Calder winners, there are only two active players in the NHL with "older" trophy wins than Fedorov? (Ed Belfour, Vezina in 91 & 93; Chelios, Norris in '89). Hell, there's only 3 Calder winners from before '94 that are still active. (It also kind of blows my mind that Joe Nieuwendyk has been in the league 3 years longer the Ed Belfour, aka Rich Uncle Skeleton).

Also, Martin Brodeur won the Calder Trophy the same year Fedorov won the Hart, and is presently only 5 wins back of the aforementioned Skeleton for 2nd-most in an NHL career.

The Flames host the 12-0-4 Anaheim Ducks tonight (730PM MST, RSN West), and it should be a goodie. As we all know by now, the Ducks set an NHL record last night in the 6-0 win over the Canucks by earning points in 16 straight games to open the season, passing the mighty '84/85 Oilers.

I understand the general case for new records under a new scoring system, but as it relates to this particular accomplishment -- which is Mighty impressive -- I think "apples to oranges" is stretching it a bit.

The Ducks have 9 regulation Wins, 1 OT Win, 1 OT Loss, 2 S/O Wins, and 3 S/O Losses. The OT Loss is a blemish, I suppose -- there was a period of time (~ '86 to '99?) when the OT losers got nothing. But, they played 5-on-5 then. Perhaps more relevantly, the OT loss was on a Jagr PP goal, and through that same era there's a terribly slim chance that the Francois Beauchemin gets a roughing penalty in the 4th period. I don't have much trouble saying that the Ducks are essentially 9-0-7.

Now, all that said: clearly the Ducks record flatters them a bit. Why no, I don't believe they're going to finish 61-0-21. Earl at the BoC has humbly pointed out their schedule advantages so far, most strikingly that they've only played 4 games to date against '06 playoffs teams, all of which have been at home. (And look at what comes next: home games vs. MIN, CHI, PHI, & PHX).

In other Ducks news (this one's for you Mirtle), perfectly nice player Scott Niedermayer continues to be substantially overrated. Buccigross:

Scott Niedermayer is the MVP of the NHL right now.

And the previous week:

This man is the best player in the NHL right now.

Here are the virtually identical TOI/Gm numbers for Niedermayer and another highly-regarded defenseman on his team (Total / ES / SH / PP):

• SN: 26:54 / 17:14 / 4:01 / 5:38
• CP: 27:12 / 17:04 / 4:32 / 5:35

Here are their basic stats:

• SN: 4-10-14, +4
• CP: 3-12-15, +12

I can't imagine I have to tell you which guy has been on for 2 more GA on the PK either. I'll resurrect what I wrote after G5/Rd1 last season, when Iginla was +4 and Niedermatador was -4:

If I could pick one defenseman in the league to retrieve a puck in my own end, under pressure, and get it out safely, I might well pick Niedermayer. The number of times he's confounded Flames forecheckers with a quick, accurate pass in an unexpected direction is pretty impressive. And, the offensive element to his game is clearly a big plus. But if I'm picking a defenseman to neutralize the other team's top line or top scorer, he's a long way down the list.

Numbers aren't everything, but they have to mean something: any explanation of why Niedermayer is more valuable than Pronger (leadership, competitiveness, "controlling the game", etc.) has to account for a difference of 10 goals on the scoresheet. I don't see why people like Butch can't acknowledge that he makes lots of mistakes.

Tonight's the night. Coming off a somewhat effortless big win is not the ideal mindset for playing the Flames at home. I'll guess Calgary scores a couple of early goals, and the 2nd and 3rd periods are fairly uneventful save for a late fight, as they scoot to a 4-1 Win. Go Flames.

Morning, hockey fans. Here's a look at the Raffi Torres hit on Jason Williams. Yikes. It was one of those hits where you scream "yes!" for a split second, and then immediately go, "oh, no, no, no, no." It looks like WIlliams will be out for a while with a concussion. Oiler draft pick Brad Norton has been called up to take William's spot in the Red Wings roster.

It's Friday y'all! Woo Hoo! Big game tomorrow afternoon. What? What's that? The Oilers game is tonight, you say? Bah, I reply. You heard me. BAH! The big game is tomorrow afternoon, when the Oilogosphere Street Classic resumes. Now THAT is the place to be. I don't want to make any heedless predictions, but I'm fairly certain I'm going to pull off the Savardian spin at least once during the game. And not the Serge Savardian spin either. Uh uh. I'm kicking it new school, with a full on Denis Savardian spin. The Hockey Hall of Fame has some video here. At about 3:50 of the clip, you'll see what I'm talking about. It involves holding onto the ball for a good two minutes, lots of spinning, circling, deking, dipsy-doodling, a goal, and some smelling salts at the end. Trust me, it's pretty.

***Update***
Many thanks to all who gave money this week. There is still one item waiting to be cleared by PayPal, but our final tally is $570.99. Yeaaahhh! I was pleased, and surprised, to see donations come in from so many different places. People in six Canadian provinces, six U.S. states, as well as Australia, donated. Four people from the state of Tennessee donated alone, which is amazing. Either there are Oilers fans in places I had no idea even existed, or there are quite a few fans of other teams who read our site, and wanted to give. I think it's probably a bit of both. Thank-you, thank-you, thank-you to all.

I contacted the Oilers by email late this afternoon, and hope to receive a reply by Monday or Tuesday. In the meantime, below are screen captured images of my PayPal account. Names have been blacked out to preserve anonymity, but the donation amounts and the PayPal fees are all visible. The final in the PayPal account says $552.12, because that final donation hasn't cleared yet. But once it does, the total should be $570.99, based on what was given minus what PayPal takes off for that amount.

I really... don't know what to make of this. Did Eric Francis really put this in the newspaper? From a column on Andrew Ference:

"He's really tough -- people don't know that but he's fought some tough guys in this league," said [Marcus] Nilson, whose club got a rise out of Ference's spirited, 89-second draw with Barnaby, who he'd fought twice before.

"Anytime a guy is standing in there for that long and in such a good fight, it's a big boost. The emotions get going and it kind of gets the whole team going."

The crowd too, prompting a scribe to ask the last time he got a standing ovation.

"My wife gave me one the other night," said Ference.

Maybe it's just me, but I read this as if he delivered this line the same way as if he had started it with "Your mother".

NON-HOCKEY-RELATED EXTRA: Speaking of suggestive comments, a Ralph Klein line -- mere weeks from his retirement and at a roast -- is unaccountably top-billed at the Herald's website:

But late in the evening, during his rebuttal speech, Klein said: "Now Belinda roasted me as a Conservative, but of course now she's a Liberal. And I wasn't surprised she crossed over -- I don't think she ever did have a Conservative bone in her body. Well, except for one."

At that point, Klein looked slightly uncomfortable and glanced to his side to catch someone's eye as he laughed. His remarks were met first with groans, then laughter, applause and whistles from the hundreds in attendance.

"Well, speaking of Peter MacKay..."

Some of the reaction was insane, if predictable:

Calgary Ald. Joe Ceci, who attended the event, said he was surprised to hear the remarks in "mixed company," even if it was at a roast.

"Overall, that's a sexist remark and it probably indicates that in the political arena, men judge women differently than men judge men."

Fellow alderman Andre Chabot said the remarks were "gratuitous" and "had absolutely nothing to do with the topic of discussion."
[...]
Janice Kinch, chairwoman of Equal Voice Alberta South, a group that promotes women's entry into politics, said her first response to the comments was, "Shame on Ralph."

Three words: Lighten up, Francis. Joe Ceci apparently doesn't know the difference between a sexist joke and a sex joke. The other two obviously don't even know what a roast is. Topic of discussion? Wha???

My eyes are probably rolling even more than usual, having seen some of the Comedy Central Roast of Pamela Anderson recently, featuring Hepatitis-C jokes and a suggestion that one of her body parts played the cave in the last Batman movie...

Anyway, so long Ralph, and thanks for privatizing the liquor stores!

CAVEAT: I write this after the Oilers have suffered a 3-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings. Some may therefore think I'm angry and being unfair. But I hold that I have argued these points consistently since the beginning of the season, and my frustration over tonight's performance left me hours ago. We are now fifteen games in, and though my points focus on the negative rather than the positive, I believe them to be fair. Nor do I deny that there have been positives in the Oilers season. For example, I think the defence has been pretty solid, that Dwayne Roloson has been above average on most nights, and that Petr Sykora has been a fantastic addition to the roster. Plus, ten games from now I could be raving about how well the Oilers are playing. But I think the negatives far outweigh the positives...right now.

ONE: This team lacks a physical presence. This covers the ability to take the body on a consistent basis, as well as the ability to defend star players. Jason Smith is the only Oiler who will consistently take the body. Raffi Torres can cause major damage, but he is a streaky player, and as was seen by the hit on Jason Williams tonight, can't stomach hurting an opponent. I don't begrudge him that fact, as it reflects well upon his character, but it makes him unreliable. Since game one, opposing teams have taken runs at star players like Ales Hemsky, and there is simply no one to defend them. Nor can the team generate a forecheck, because with Ethan Moreau injured, there is not a single player getting over ten minutes a game who will sacrifice the body to create a turnover. Teams are exploiting the Oilers physical weakness.

TWO: As just noted, the team has zero forecheck going, and doesn't seem that interested in puck pursuit. It refuses to dump the puck in, instead choosing to make moves at the line that usually result in turnovers or offsides. Naturally, since the puck isn't in the corners, and they refuse to bang or chase it down when it is, they can't cycle the puck. This prevents them from causing mismatches, creating scoring chances, or drawing penalties.

THREE: Not that drawing penalties would matter. The Oilers power play is beyond awful. I don't care about how it's going to be, it's shi-tay now. It's gotten results at times, but it usually doesn't do squat. They can't enter the zone, can't get set up, don't take shots, can't get chances and therefore can't score. A big part of this is that the team attempts to do the same two plays all the time. The first is the slapshot from the point. The second is the cross ice one-timer at the half-boards. Teams know this, push out their forwards towards the points, and the Oilers can't retain control or generate chances.

FOUR: Which leads me to coaching. This powerplay has been too bad for too long. The presence of Chris Pronger and some fortunate breaks has hid the fact that this team's powerplay has had glaring weaknesses over the past year 13-14 months. It also hid the fact that Craig Simpson hasn't made any adjustments to his gameplan. Simpson was a good player, and I liked him as an announcer, but he hasn't cut it as a coach. I've long thought that he needs to go, and this hasn't changed.

I've never had much of a problem with Craig MacTavish, but some of his recent moves have bewildered me. He's been mixing the lines so much that we've been taking bets about how soon it will happen. And while I can agree that if a guy is playing well he should get more ice time, it has limits. Over the past three games, MacTavish has played Brad Winchester and Toby Petersen on special teams in the 3rd period, even though the Oilers were losing in all three instances. That just makes no sense. Tonight, with the Oilers only down 1-0 in the 3rd, in a game they had no business being that close in, MacT threw out Winchester and Petersen with Ryan Smyth on the powerplay. Mike Babcock responded by throwing out Henrik Zetterberg, Chris Draper and Niklas Lidstrom, and a short time later, the Wings scored a shorthanded goal ( I see now that Petersen was off the ice by the time the goal was scored, and Sykora was in). Instead of giving the Oilers a real chance of tying the game by putting out Ales Hemsky, Joffrey Lupul, Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani or Torres on the powerplay, he threw out two fourth line guys with little experience on the powerplay, and little experience with playing against difficult opposition. Sure, the Winchester, Petersen, Patrick Thoresen line played great tonight--you can see how many scoring chances they had by taking a peek at the comments over at IOF--but they were playing great against Juri "Rex" Hudler's line. To me, fourth-liners having a good game against weak opposition is not grounds for essentially benching your millionaires, especially with a game on the line. A blowout either way? Sign me up. But the move eliminated the Oilers chance for a comeback, and likely did even more damage to the confidence of some of MacT's most important players.

FIVE: Having said that, I have to ask: what the hell is wrong with some of these guys? Have they totally lost all their confidence and swagger? This team was one game away from winning the Stanley Cup, and you'd think they'd finished in 30th place overall. Ales Hemsky played TWELVE MINUTES AND THREE SECONDS tonight. Look at the shift chart. It's full of large white spaces for a handful of Oilers, including Hemsky, Torres, Marc Andre Bergeron, J.F. Jacques, Fernando Pisani, and even Petr Sykora. I'd get on MacTavish more, if not for the fact that I'm watching the same game he's watching. Most of these guys certainly haven't earned the confidence of their coach.

SIX: Will Kevin Lowe make a trade? Darren Dreger commented tonight that Lowe was looking for a puck-moving defenceman. My own belief is that the Oilers aren't at that point yet. For all the reasons I just stated, the Oilers are playing some poor hockey right now. Bringing in one defenceman won't correct matters. These guys are going to have to get through this by themselves, and start putting some "60 minute efforts" together. I wouldn't be surprised to see my boy "Brad" Gilbert called up soon, however, along with maybe some other kids.

SEVEN: Clearly, the terms "blender" and "vaunt" are deserving of entering the BoA glossary, no? Special kudos to Flames fan Peter (grumble grumble) for decimating the Oilers offence with one word.

Record: 7-6-1		Record: 9-4-1
	Preview

Two teams who have gone in pretty much opposite directions since they last met. The Oilers may not think they need a win, but I certainly need one. The last game I watched that the Oilers won was October 23rd against Phoenix.* Give me 110% out there, boys!

Pleasure Motors has the line of the day over at Covered in Oil. On the Red Wings:

"these aren't your slightly older cousin whom you've always felt obligated to sit beside at Thanksgiving due to the closeness of your ages even though she tapes CSI: New York and dropped out of an Athabasca University correspondence business program to serve bottles of Corona and get groped in the lounge at the Sawmill Pacific Fish Company's Red Wings: these are the Red Wings who haven't lost a game since we beat them in mid-October."

I didn't catch any McCartney/Band on the Run references, which was a tad disappointing, but that was about all that was missing in that fine piece of post.

Our friends at Behind the Jersey, On the Wings and Abel at Kuklas will have the news on Detroit.

And just a reminder to any who wish to play in the Oilogosphere Street Classic this Saturday: if you haven't contacted Pleasure Motors or I yet, please do so.

*I may not watch this game now, because clearly it's my fault that the Oilers are losing.

[Note: this post will stay at the top until Wed. Nov 8th, 3PM MST. Scroll down for newer stories.]

Craig MacTavish was fined $10, 000 today for his criticism of referee Mick McGeough following last night's debacle against the Stars. As I noted late last night, I think it would be a nice symbolic gesture for the hockey blogosphere, and in particular the Oilogosphere, to help pay the cost of MacT's fine. I think enough of us in hockey land have had enough of Mr. Magoo's antics, and this is a good way to show it. As Tyler noted in the comments last night, we can send whatever we raise to MacT. If he doesn't want it, we'll request that he give the cheque to the Canadian National Institute for the Blind, or another suitable charity of his choice.

I have set up a PayPal program at the top of the Battle of Alberta sidebar. Please make your donations there. In the last step of the process, there is a box where you can leave a message. Please say "MacTavish Relief Fund," "MacT Relief Fund" or something of the sort in the box, so that I know where to place the money. If I don't see that, I'll assume someone is leaving a tip in the cookie jar for Matt and I (always welcome, let me assure you).



As well, it would be really cool if others would link to this post, and encourage people to donate. 1000 people donating $10, or 500 people donating $20, and we got 'er. It's a tall task, but a fun one. It would be a great gesture, and I'm sure it would help raise the profile of the hockey blogosphere. Plus, it's a worthy cause. MacT's comments about McGeough were dead on. We all know it. The language may have been a little raw, but the reasoning was sound. This guy cost the Oilers one, maybe two points. Can you imagine if they miss the playoffs by that margin? Not only is the team eliminated; at least two million dollars in playoff revenue disappears. And if you're not an Oilers fan, imagine him stealing points away from you, and your team missing the playoffs. Because it will happen. MacT was fined by the NHL for talking, pure and simple. McGeough, to the best of my knowledge, has received zero punishment from the league for his actions. He apologized, the league says. Big deal. The greater issue is the points, and the fact that this guys' enormous ego always causes problems. $10-20 bucks is worth the statement, as far as I am concerned. I've already dumped in $10, and I'm going to donate $10 more. I hope you join me.

**Matt's Fine Print: the "relief effort" will end on Wednesday at 3PM MDT. Andy will look after announcing the final $ and getting it all where it needs to go. My own take is the here.

**Andy Update:

1) A Donation Meter is now up on the sidebar, beneath the PayPal button. That was actually really fun to make. Honestly, if we made it to $500, I'd be stoked. It'd be a nice chunk of change for a great organization.

2) I will do my best to prove that this money has indeed gone to the CNIB, but ultimately this is a trust thing. People's concerns in that regard are fair, but ultimately unfounded. If it is a concern, don't donate. I certainly understand.

3) 100.3 The Bear is also doing a fundraiser. This site is doing a different one. I want to avoid any confusion to those coming here. Please check out The Paul Brown Show for more info on The Bear's activities.

4) Our efforts have received coverage from Mike Sadava and Jim Matheson in the Edmonton Journal, and Eric Duhatschek in The Globe & Mail's blog Globe On Hockey. Thanks to them for covering the story, as well the many bloggers who also linked to the story.

Baseball-style standings are shown at the left. Even with the Wild losing 3 of their last 4, they're in a nice early season position; the rest of the division is still finding their way.

Eric Francis wrote a column in the Calgary Sun a week ago today predicting that the Flames (3-6-1 at the time) would miss the playoffs. I think (and thought) that this was premature, in large part because what he saw as the biggest problem, I think is probably an opportunity:

Last year, the Flames won the Northwest crown thanks to a 20-8-4 record in their division. This year they'd be lucky to be .500, costing them a top-eight finish.
[...]
Suggesting the Flames aren't good enough to play this spring has nothing to do with panicking.

It has to do with being realistic in a division that is leaving them behind.

The Flames, to date, have played 2 of 32 division games (1-1 vs. EDM, 0 games vs. VAN, COL, & MIN). Minnesota has obviously looked good so far this season, but the Flames have had their number recently (6-2 last year, IIRC). The other 3 teams are all basically .500, and the Northwest doesn't look like a power division (yet). And even if it is, the Flames could surely be the Big Dog on the strength of successful head-to-head results.

Will they? I still like their chances. They look excellent 5-on-5 in the last bit; they haven't allowed an even-strength goal in 193+ minutes (excluding the Guerin goal where Regehr was stepping out of the box). On the other hand, their special teams has been ten kinds of crappy, and while the upside of this is that the numbers are unquestionably going to get better, they still have to improve their play. Looking at mc79's numbers through the St. Louis game, the Flames are 20th or worse in everything: PP shot rate (25th), PP shot% (20th), PK "shots allowed" rate (21st), and PK Save% (26th). The cherry on top is being 22nd in the league in Penalty Differential, i.e. # of PKs relative to # of PPs.

The key math here is this (GD = Goal Differential):

10th in ESGD + 24th in PPGD + 24th in PKGD = 4-7-2, 12th Place (as of Sunday)

When one-third of the game is played on special teams, you simply can not afford for both to be dismal.

Here, by the way, is the full baseball standings for the league right now. I gave ties, arbitrarily, to the team with fewer games played.

I'm not sure what motivates someone to write a piece like Memo to Edmonton: It's Only a Game. Excerpt:

...misguided hockey nuts... madness... pathetic... pathetic... so many can find no better use for their charitable dollars? [...] silliness...

And, he concludes by bringing up MacT's deadly DUI in '84. It's somewhat remarkable to see that much crabbyness crammed into a couple hundred words.

I'm not sure what MacT's 22-year-old mistake has to do with anything, or what the better uses for charitable dollars are. But, I digress. What I really don't get about the piece (and you see others along this same theme every so often) is the "It's Only a Game" clucking.

Does Jamie Fitzpatrick actually think that Edmontonians are confused, and that hockey is no longer a game? I don't think so -- I think what he's saying is that this particular campaign doesn't suit his own tastes as a hockey fan. Let me illustrate with a fake conversation:

Co-worker of Wife: So what do you do with your spare time, Jamie?
Jamie Fitzpatrick: Well, I spend some of it writing about hockey at About.com...
Co-worker of Wife: Uh, you know hockey's only a game, right?

I'm really not sure what Jamie might say next here. But whatever it is would apply just as well to Oiler fans right now as it would to him in that awkward spot. (I think I'd go for "Uh, yes...").

Look, some people think face painting is stupid. Or, the Wave. Lots of times I'll go so far as to change what I'm wearing (into a Red jersey), in the privacy of my own home, to watch hockey. Did I get confused somewhere about the enduring importance of hockey games? You could find hundreds, or thousands, of season ticket-holders in every NHL city who would answer the question, "Do you read or write about your teams on weblogs or message boards?" with, "Nooo... I'm a fan, not a psycho."

People are diverse. All of us are going to look at other people's leisure time activities on occasion and think, "Seriously?". Fortunately, most of us aren't going to be as snotty about it as Fitzpatrick.

"It's only a game" is a bad faith attempt to win an argument by pretending there is a specific set of behaviours that are universally appropriate for real life but not for sports. There isn't. All there is, is taste. (If there was, I'd suggest that raising money for charity is on the Good side, even the Awareness element of the campaign is dubious...)

My great aunt passed away two summers ago. She was a wonderful woman, very much loved by her family. After the Funeral Liturgy and Mass at St Joseph's Basilica, a reception was held at a local golf club. Many were in attendence, including some Eskimo greats, as well as several current members of the Oilers organization. My Nana and Grandad, who loved their sister dearly, were telling us stories about her life, many of which involved these men. I hadn't seen or interacted with my great aunt since I was a little child, and many of the stories were new to me. Part of what was so interesting was that both my grandparents kept referring to someone in the stories, someone who was in the building, as "The Great One." Now, when a person my age hears the term "The Great One," only one person comes to mind. But that guy wasn't there. At first I thought my grandparents were confused, but after a few moments I realized that they weren't talking about Wayne Gretzky. They were talking about Jackie Parker.

My grandparents love the Oilers. Like most Edmontonians, they adore Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe, and Craig MacTavish, amongst others. Yet on that day, their reverance was reserved only for Mr. Parker. It was a mystical experience, like listening to someone talk about the time they saw Shoeless Joe or Jackie Robinson play. It was eye-opening to say the least, seeing these elder members of our community speak in awe about the kindness, skills and talent of a professional athlete. He had obviously touched their lives, not only through his friendship with my aunt, but in the way he loved our city and played football. It reminded me that at one time, the Edmonton Eskimos were the favorite sons of the majority of citizens in this city. Obviously they are still beloved, but back then, there was very little competition.

Over the next few days, we will hear many more stories about Jackie Parker, and his legend will only grow. I have no doubt that one man is already working on a eulogy for Parker befitting a king. I myself will think of my grandparents, and the awe with which they spoke of him. My grandparents aren't the type of people to be impressed by celebrity or wealth. They are impressed by the character and virtues that make a man just that, a man. If my grandparents called Jackie Parker The Great One, then he most certainly was.


Jackie Parker died today. He was 74.

The Flames play the first of 4-outta-5 at home tonight, versus the Dallas Stars (8PM MST). In a reversal of the schedule from Friday, the Flames home game starts 2-1/2 hours after the Oil's eastern roadie, and again both are being shown on RSN West.

The Flames of course went 11-deep in a shootout then, meaning the Oiler game came on the tube at the 9-minute mark of the first. This probably means that tonight's Oil-Habs game will be a spiritless, penalty-free affair where one team wins by 3 or 4 -- leaving enough time before the puck drops in Calgary for John Garrett to tell us what a terrific season Marty Turco is having.

Speaking of goaltending: I veer around to this point every month or so these days, but the Flames are really cocking up the Backup Goaltending Situation. I've been wrong on plenty of things over the life of this blog, but there's nothing I'd like to retract so much as this, from December 23rd '05:

...I think the Flames' organization is presently a place that maximizes the likelihood of strong goaltending.

Ahhh... was I ever so young? Evidence to the contrary has piled high over this calendar year:

• The Sauve discharge was handled extremely poorly (although they appear to have been correct to ditch him), and we managed to get rid of one of our few "hands" guys in the process. Also, both players received in return (Boucher and Leclerc) were ineffective and were not resigned after the season.
• Boucher came in, and was given 2 starts over the next 30 games. After he blew the 2nd one, he didn't start again until the final game of the season (when the playoff seedings were already set).
• Then they signed Jamie McLennan in the offseason, who sounds like a super guy, but he is 35 years old and has never been a #1 quality goalie. He rode the pine for every minute of the Flames first 11 games; then (surprise!) wasn't that good when they put him in; then was treated to this comment:

"I thought we scored enough goals to end it (in regulation). I thought we scored enough goals to end it during the shootout. Our goaltender didn't do the job to give us the two points." - Jim Playfair

• They sent Brent Krahn to the minors over the objections of absolutely no one in the media, despite the fact that none of these same people actually believe McLennan is the better goalie.
• The excuse was that Krahn needed the PT ("needs to spend the year as a #1 goalie in the NHL", or thereabouts) for the sake of his development -- I do not grant this premise, but whatever -- and yet all season, Krahn and McElhinney have been alternating starts! W! T! F!
• Just to be clear, this isn't a situation where the affiliate is independent. The majority owner of the Omaha Ak-Sar-Ben Knights is the Calgary Flames (General Manager: one Darryl J. Sutter).
  

The punchline here, though I'm not laughing, is this: in the 2003-04 season, where Kipper was spectacular through most of 26 playoff games, he started a total of 38 regular season games.

Surely (surely?) the organization cannot believe that starting Miikka Kiprusoff in 70 regular season games is (A) a necessity in order to make the playoffs, or (B) the best way to have Kipper 100% fit and peaking for said postseason. Check that -- while (B) is bordering on ludicrous, if they do believe (A) then it is past time to upgrade the backup to someone more capable.

For tonight's game, though, no such worries. Kipper will be in goal, and the Flames will start to regain their Saddledome mojo. A 3-1 victory (2 PP goals by Regehr & Tanguay, 1 ES goal by Tanguay) will hit the spot, and serve as a nice warmup for handing the Ducks their first 60-minute L of the year on Friday. Go Flames.

Where did radio stations get their ideas before the internet?

Record: 7-6-0		Record: 7-3-3
	Preview

• This is the first game in a five game road trip for the Oil, with other stops in Detroit, Columbus, St. Louis and Colorado. That's not an overly difficult schedule, but Edmonton has only won one game on this road this year. Surprisingly, seven other teams have only one Away victory. Those teams are not the sort of company the Oilers would like to keep: Philadelphia, Boston, Florida, St. Louis, Columbus, Phoenix and Los Angeles.

• In five road games, the Oilers have been oustcored 19-10, and outshot 160-130. Three games have been close (Calgary, Vancouver and Colorado), and two have been blowouts (Anaheim and Phoenix).

• Who thinks the Oilers are getting off to slow starts? I sorta did, and thought I'd check it out. The Oilers have scored first in nine of their thirteen games. In their first eight games, the Oilers scored first seven times (the October 14th game against the Avs was the exception). Their record was 6-2. In their last five games, they've scored first twice (Anaheim and Washington), and been scored on first three times. Their record was 1-4. The Oilers have ended the first period ahead by at least a goal five times, behind by at least a goal four times, and tied four times. In their last three losses, however, they have ended the period behind by a goal (kind of to be expected, really, since they, you know, they lost those games).

• Scoring by period looks like this:

1st: GF 12 GA 12

2nd: GF 8 GA 14

3rd: GF 18 GA 10

• Moral of the story: 2nd period bad, play more like 3rd?

• I still don't know how to pull the NHL's stats off into Excel, despite MC's and Vic's tutorials, but these things I'd like to know: how much time have five forwards been on the ice during the Oilers powerplay, how much time has there been at least one defenceman on the powerplay, and how many times have powerplay goals been scored in each case? I have no grievance I want to address that these numbers will help to prove or disprove. I'm just curious, especially about the total time with five forwards on the ice. I wonder if the time is substantial enough to declare the strategy a success. As was noted elsewhere (MC?), part of that success may be because our PP hasn't been in the opposing zone a ton, and the forwards as defencemen therefore haven't had to deal with opposition attacks that make them skate backwards. But no short handed goals on the season (knock knock) is still something to appreciate.

• I'm not smart enough to translate this shift chart, but I felt like the line variations were off the charts the other night. Full on blender action. It made very little sense to me, especially in the 3rd period, when we were down, and using Toby Peterson on the PP. I think Peterson is a solid hockey player, but you have to wonder what is going through the coaching staff's head at that point. Are they conceding defeat? Are they that dissatisfied with some of their cast? I'm sure the latter is the case, but I still found it puzzling. I've never been a big fan of going with the guy with the hot hand or playing the hunch.

• The other day, someone found this site by Googling "hockey jokes Flames." Note to that fine gentleman or lady: you're in the right place.

• What I find most interesting about this story in La Presse is not the mention of our site, but the fact that no Habs blogs exist in French. How can that be possible? Can someone from la belle province or elsewhere explain this to me? I would have imagined there'd by plenty.

• English readers can check out Habs Blog and Sisu Hockey for a report on Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge. It looks like Chris Higgins will be out for the game against the Oil, which is fine by me. By what I've seen, including my fantasy league stats, he has been Montreal's best player.

Prediction: 6-4, Oilers. Lupul (2), MAB, Smyth, Sykora, and Torres. I scream LE BUT!!! for every goal.

I gather from Sitemeter -- and the mentions in La Presse, the Globe on Hockey blog, numerous message boards, and various Edmonton media outlets -- that some new visitors to the site are kicking around.

**The site is (mostly) written by one Oilers fan (Andy Grabia) and one Flames fan (Matt Fenwick). We have many excellent and not-insane readers who comment on what we post; many of those people also have their own sites (see the Left Sidebar). Read how this blog came into existence here.

**If I may say so, I think the place is somewhat level-headed. We're pretty light on the personal attacks, singling out players & coaches based on short slumps, and making urgent trade (or other) demands of the two organizations. Relatively speaking, we're a bit heavier on statistical analysis, although sometimes we just do stupid things because we find them funny.

**If you're looking for something that you absolutely cannot find anywhere else, I recommend checking out this tool created by guest contributor Colby Cosh.

**Let me be perfectly clear: we have no earthly idea what the Real Reason Pronger Left was. Sorry, Google searchers.

**Go Flames.

Terrific article (en Francais) in La Presse today about hockey blogs. Eric McErlain -- who is noted and quoted in the piece, as well as Mirtle, Kukla, and Richardson -- calls it "the most accurate depiction of sports blogging I've read in a long time", and I'd agree.

Writer Jean-François Bégin notes, "En fait, il y a probablement autant de modèles qu'il y a de blogues consacrés au hockey." Roughly, this means every blog exists for its own reasons and to its own ends. Thank you. This is not news to people who actually read and enjoy hockey blogs, but it's always appreciated when we're characterized as something other than Bored Jackasses Making Up Trade Rumours And Trying To Get The Coach Fired.

Oh, and of course, this was my favourite part:

Petit à petit, ils sont en train de se faire une place, nichés entre les sites des médias traditionnels et les forums de discussion qui les ont précédés. Plusieurs sont animés par des fans- voyez par exemple Battle of Alberta (battleofalberta.blogspot.com), où les partisans des Flames et des Oilers s'en donnent à coeur joie, sans grande prétention à l'objectivité.

I'd prefer to leave it to a more fluent Commenter to translate "s'en donnent à coeur joie", but this bit is substantially true and complimentary. Merci, M. Begin, well done.

I like it when Craig Mactavish is upset. For starters, "at times I have found his antics humourous" (to coin a phrase). Also, it gives me a general, warm sense of well-being when he's unhappy, simply because the odds are whatever he's unhappy about is something that pleases me. (Like, a junior-league-player mentality, just to pick one example.)

A $10,000 fine is intended in part to discourage him from going on future rants like the one Friday night. Anything hockey fans can do to counteract that is OK by me. So, nothwithstanding the comments below, I support this product and/or service generous effort.

As to the blown call at hand, I think a few people need a headsmack. Watching Hockeycentral for a bit last night, I found myself amazed that Bill Watters and Ray Ferraro have been in pro hockey for a combined 110 years. The short primer for y'all: Whistle Blown in Error cannot be undone, reviewed or even mitigated. This isn't a rules quirk or a technological limitation; it has nothing to do with consulting with the linesmen. It's just a fact of sport.

When the whistle is blown, the play is dead, period. What are the alternatives? The players are not expected to make a snap judgement when they hear the ref's whistle as to whether the ref made the right call or not. Marty Turco, as an example, is entitled to stop paying attention when the whistle blows. So is Sergei Zubov. Whether they did or did not, or did partly, is really beside the point.

Look at that video; if you assume Magoo hoots on his whistle right before he starts waving his arms, that's basically when Stoll first touches the puck. So I'm not sure what Bill & Ray want McGeough to discuss with the rest of the crew: "Guys, looks like a made a bad call there: do you think we can pretend I never blew the whistle or waved my arms before the puck went in, and just let the goal stand?" Yeeesh.

This isn't exactly a blue-moon occurrence either. Every so often a ref blows the puck dead because the thinks the goalie has it covered, when in fact the puck is well loose and goes in a fraction later. Sometimes a linesman makes a bad offside call on an odd-man rush, killing an excellent scoring chance. Sometimes an official has a misfired neuron and just blows the whistle for no apparent reason at all. It happens.

Magoo made a bad call, and unfortunately for the Oil, the type of call he blew was irreversible. But he's a well above-average ref with lots of experience. He'll make fewer than most. MacT's comments were not a very good idea, though I personally appreciate the entertainment value.

Calgary plays their first back-to-back of the season tonight in St. Louis (6PM MST, radio only). Jeez, when Calgary gets back into this thing, it's not going to be thanks to the soft part of their schedule, which regrettably is now at an end.

I consider myself pretty lucky: I missed seeing the first period of last night's game live. So what I did see, the Flames looked great: fast, aggressive, and by far the superior team. Unfortunately, Noodles' goaltending was craptastic. Two of the first three were stoppable, but forget that: the fourth one was Conklinesque. If the other team has the puck about 18 inches north of the goal line at the bottom of the circle, what's the width of "open" net the goalie has to cover? Five inches? This was not achieved successfully, and we ended up losing a point as a result.

(Also, this is pretty unfair criticism because 7/11 S-O SV% is not that bad, but three times, McLennan had a chance to win the game on the spot by stopping the approaching Columbus shooter after the Flame player had scored, and went 0-3. That's mighty frustrating.)

Fun St. Louis stat #1: Radek Dvorak has 4X as much PP time as PK time; he also has 1 SHG and 0 PPG
Fun St. Louis stat #2: Team leader in icetime -- Dennis Wideman
Fun Flames stat #1: A win tonight would give them the identical record as last season thru 13 games (4-7-2)
Fun Flames memories:

• In 2001-2002, the Flames started the year 13-2-2-2 and gave Roman Turek a 4-year contract. They looked legitimately awesome. I believe they were then mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with two weeks left in the season.
• In 2003-2004, the Flames started the year 6-8-2 and were in about 14th place. They looked legitimately crappy. They traded for Kipper, finished in 6th, and won three playoff rounds.
• In 2005-2006, the Flames started the season 4-7-2 (the same record they'll have if they win tonight. They showed flashes, but looked legitimately underpowered. They then won 8 straight, and ended up winning the NW Division by 8 points.

I relive these magic moments not so much to demonstrate that the start isn't ultra-critical, but to point out that teams look bad when they're not getting results. When they start winning, they look better; it's not just the other way around.

I see a three-nil Kipper shutout in my immediate future. Go Flames.

If MacT gets fined for his comments about Mick McGeough, I think we should help pay it. I could even set up a Pay Pal account. Sure, he's a rich man, but he's gonna take that bullet for all of us. It would be a nice symbolic gesture...

Looks like Magoo was having a bit of trouble figuring out how many seconds were left when Horcoff didn't glove the puck.

That is a... very bad call. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fans, btw.

We all know the downside of using small statistical samples to draw conclusions. The upside of small sample size is that you can look at it in pretty gory detail. Did you know:

• The Flames have allowed 12 PPG against this season (actually 13, but I'm excluding the 5-on-3 by the Oil in G1). Robyn Regehr has been on the ice for 8 of them. Ouch. Lombardi/Amonte have been on for 5 (most by any forwards), but also been on for the Flames' 2 SH goals. The worst differential for any forward is Langkow, both raw and rate (4 PPGA, 0 SHGF).
• The Flames' best Fwd on the PK has been, no surprise, Stephane Yelle (0 GA). Next is, yes surprise, Jeff Friesen -- only 1 PPGA even though he has the 4th highest PK ice time for forwards. The D-man with the best PK success so far is actually Andrew Ference; Hamrlik and Zyuzin have slightly better differential rates, though, as they were on the ice for the SH goals.
• The Flames have a total of 19 "minus" events this season: 16 ESGA, 2 SHGA, and 1 EN-GA. Jarome Iginla is -2 despite having scored 9 ES points, which means that he was on the ice for at least 11 of those 19 GA. Same with Langkow; he has 5 ES points yet is -6. Both guys were on the ice for both SHGA and the empty-netter, but that still means their line was on for at least 8 of the 16 ESGA.
• The good at ES: Lombardi is +6 (not counting his +2 on the PK) and Kobasew is +4. I am but a lowly Unfrozen Caveman Hockey Fan, but that seems OK for invisible guys who need to work harder. As for ES scoring rates: Iginla is at 3.27ESP/60 (that rate would have been 4th in the league last season) and Lombardi is at 2.62ESP/60 (~50th). The news past that is brutal, except to say that it is inconceivable that Alex Tanguay will continue at this "pace".
• Powerplay: Lombardi and Kobasew are both above 6.0PPP/60, a level reached by only 18 forwards last season. That's good! Huselius is at 2.31PPP/60 and Iginla is at 2.05PPP/60. That's bad... Luc Robitaille was the only forward in the NHL last season who averaged 4mins/Gm on the PP and produced that poorly.
• Back to the brutal, a.k.a., This Can't Possibly Continue, Can It? Only 22 forwards in the NHL last season played at least 50 games and scored less than 1.0ESP/60. It's basically a Carnival of Brashears, Hollwegs, and Pecas. The Flames below that (cough) benchmark so far are: Tanguay (0.95), Huselius (0.93), Lundmark (0.88), Friesen (0.57), Amonte (0.00), Richie (0.00), McCarty (0.00)

Go Flames. And if you hear someone suggest that Lombardi or Kobasew ought to be benched to send the team a message, please punch them in the face for me.

Record: 10-2-0		Record: 7-5-0
	Preview

Sorry folks. I've been very busy, so I haven't been putting much effort into the previews. That will change for the game against Le Club de Hockey Canadien, but not for tonight's. I do think it is going to be a great game, though. Most of the players from the rivalry days are gone, but it won't matter. The crowd's going to be revved up (liquored up), and some big hits from Raffi and Gator are going to set the tone early. Oilers fans will taunt Lindros just for something to do, and Smytty is going to be driving Turco batty all night long. As long as it doesn't go to a shootout, this dance belongs to the Oil.

Prediction: 5-3, Oilers. Torres, Sykora, Smytty (2) and Horcoff.

GOILERS!

Calgary! Columbus! It's the NHL, on Rogers Sportsnet West! (Or, Ference! Westcott! It's the.. etc.) Game goes at 5PM MST, and is the front end of the Flames' 1st back-to-back of the season.

Two things about a bad team like Columbus (who has already been shutout 3 times this season, and whose 3 wins come against PHX, CHI, and LA):

1. You ought to beat them
2. It ought to be fun

As I noted last night (SIX), nothing but nothing would get the team feeling good and headed in the right direction like Iginla & Tanguay going off. It would give everybody else energy and confidence, "...from our goaltenders right out."

Calgary 4 (Tanguay x2, Regehr, Langkow)
Columbus 1 (Jackets SH goal leader Fredrik Norrena (see Leaders table at right))
Go Flames.

*Update*: we already have Jackets blog Army of the Ohio (currently on vacation) on the sidebar, but check out End of the Bench as well. Choice words from the most recent post:

"We looked really good losing tonight." Anonymous Blue Jacket person, talking about the loss to Colorado.

Did I really hear that, "we looked good" while losing a game? Is this what I have to settle for at this stage of Blue Jacket franchise history?
[...]
Doug MacLean tells the fans that he has faith, which is fine and good. But maybe he should work on a plan for success in the meantime.

I don't think Doug MacLean would recognize a plan for success if the ghost of Sam Pollock handed him one double-spaced with the key concepts in bold, but all the best to Drew (after tonight, that is).

ONE. The Flames forwards are sufficiently talented to score as much as they need to. Last season, they ranked 12th in PP%, and have since added Alex Tanguay. Iginla, Tanguay, Langkow, Lombardi, Kobasew, and Huselius have plenty of talent and are a pretty decent top 2 lines.

I accept (or, endorse) the criticism that the 3rd and 4th lines are basically a void, but I don't know how big a handicap this is, statistically. I reject the criticism that the team is unfit for today's NHL, or whatever variation of that statement you choose. The PP will get better.

TWO. I do not know my hockey well enough, in an X-and-O sense, to assess whether the Flames' "system" is a wise one in the context of (A) the 2006 NHL or (B) their personnel. (Neither do most people who have opinions on both.) I'm sure that there are adjustments that could be made, surely this is always the case.

I am quite certain that forechecking hard and being in good defensive position is almost always a good thing, regardless of rules or era, so in that sense, I couldn't possibly have a broad philosophical objection to asking players to do these things. But...

THREE. There is a danger (a considerable one, based on the evidence so far) that over-coaching can promote an atmosphere where the pro athlete's brain neutralizes his physical gifts rather than augments them. So far this season, the Flames have been outscored 14-6 in the 1st period (and outscored their opponents 12-6 in the 3rd). That tells me that either the Flames are incredibly fit relative to their opponents thus far, or that they're starting the game with too much garbage in their heads.

FOUR. Per the above and my previous post, I think Coach Playfair needs to start sounding a lot more positive. It's possible that he's incredibly upbeat and encouraging in the dressing room, but I don't think so, and anyway that's not good enough. He and Sutter obviously believe to some extent in the power of the media, because they use the media to call out players and challenge them to be better. How's about using that same tactic to build some confidence?

"The players in our dressing room have the talent, the hockey sense, and the heart to beat any team in the league." Or, "Regehr and Warrener haven't had great starts, but they'll be back as good or better than ever." Or, "We've felt for three years that Matthew Lombardi had the potential to be a #1 centre in this league, and so far this season he's proving us right." Or, "Alex Tanguay is an elite point producer in this league, and his weak numbers so far is nothing more than a slump at a time when it's most obvious. He'll be fine; he'll be our #1 LW for the next three years."

What's the worst thing that can happen? Will the team go soft, and go (say) 3-7-1 over their next 11 games?

FOUR-A. It doesn't really look like Lombardi and Tanguay respond to that kind of up-in-your-face, hard-to-please-father type of motivation anyway.

FIVE. It is unlikely that the Flames, or any other team, can really be the hardest-working team in the league for an extended period. Yeah, it's something to strive for, but it's hubris (and disrespectful of the competition) to seriously expect to get there. Furthermore: if the team is not having fun, it's utterly impossible.

SIX. Here's an old hobby horse for longtime readers: Jarome Iginla needs someone to get the puck to a lot more than he needs someone to get the puck from. When I think of someone with more goals than assists, I think of guys like Brett Hull and Luc Robitaille: not bangers on the boards, but rather guys who find open space at the right times. Generally, not guys who control the puck much.

Iginla is not that type of player. He is a guy who creates scoring chances. He's more Joe Thornton than Jonathan Cheechoo. As such, if I were the ol' Coach for a Day, here's the one thing I'd do: I'd put Lombardi and Tanguay back on a line with Jarome, and give the two of them strict instructions that they are not to be preoccupied with getting Iginla the puck, but rather receiving it from him.

Those two guys have the best hands (where best = most opportunistic and effective around the net) on the team apart from the big man. If Iginla is playing with guys who can cash in on more of the scoring chances he creates, then team scoring obviously improves. Also, once everybody (Flames and opponents) realize that Jarome is playing with guys who can score, well, that'll help Jarome's scoring as well. Also, having a line that's really firing seems to have a lifting effect on a whole team.

SEVEN. The Wild just took at 13-point lead on Calgary for the NW Division lead. That's a big mountain. Fortunately, the Flames haven't played them -- or Vancouver or Colorado -- yet. There's a lot of opportunity left to have a very successful season

EIGHT. I have definitely eaten too much Halloween candy in the last three nights.

Hells ya, we're doing this again. Location is still pending; we know where we want to go, we just need confirmation. It will not be a puddle bowl like last time, that is for sure. Those who are already on my list from the last game need not email us. We will contact you to see if you are in. If you haven't emailed Dave and I before, and you would like to play, contact Pleasure Motors at coveredinpleasure@gmail.com and me at andygrabia@gmail.com. All are welcome, and we hope you can join us. The last game was a blast.

I think I'm going to have to try and organize a BoA NHL 94 tourney next.




GOILERS!

Alberta's two National Hockey League teams aren't faring too well to start off the 2006/2007 season. The Flames are 3-7-1, and can't score. The Oilers are 7-5, but have lost three of their last four games, and to be honest, probably deserve to have the same record as the Flames. Goaltending has been inconsistent, powerplays have been erratic (to put it nicely), and neither team seems to have an identity. In the meantime, fans of both teams are left thinking, "huh?" The Flames and the Oilers are the last two Western Conference representatives in the Stanley Cup Finals, and have lineups that should yield consistently positive results. Yet if the current poor play continues, neither team will even make the playoffs. There is a lot of hockey left to be played this year, and both teams had similar bad starts at the beginning of last season, but two teams going on huge winning streaks two years in a row is like catching lightning in a bottle. The Flames and the Oilers are going to have to straighten out their seasons real soon, or they'll soon be planning for the next.

'Badger' Bob Johnson was the Calgary Flames' first great coach. Calgary was his 1st NHL gig; he coached here for 5 years, and became a Flames legend, mostly on the strength of halting the Oil's head-to-head dominance (including handing Sather & Friends their only playoff defeat between 1983 & 1989). His 2nd and final gig was in Pittsburgh. He led the Pens (Lemieux, Sandstrom, Francis, Barrasso, and a rookie Jagr, among others) to the Stanley Cup in 1991, then died of a brain tumour in November of the same year.

If there was one thing Bob Johnson was famous (or notorious) for, it was relentless positivity. Relentless. It retrospect, you forget how awkward it felt at the time: we all know that optimism sounds suspiciously like denial when things are going poorly. I cracked out this quote last season after the Oil followed up a 3-0 start with 7 straight losses, if only because the last two sentences are put so well:

Johnson wouldn't even acknowledge that ten consecutive losses constituted a slump. Trying to keep his poise as everybody around him lost theirs, Johnson commented: "You say to yourself, let's go back to the time when we were successful. What did we do differently? For the six weeks when we lost only two games, we were getting some breaks, we were getting some timely goals, and our goaltending was outstanding. Now, all of a sudden, we're not getting many goals, our defense is too tentative, and we're not getting good goaltending. We're in a slump because people keep telling us we're in a slump. People tell you you're playing badly and after a while, you start to believe it. People tell you you're playing great and you believe that, too. What do we need? We need to recapture the winning feeling. And the only way to do that is to win a game."

If you follow the link (or buy On Fire), you see where things go from there. I bring this up not because Badger was the greatest coach in NHL history, or that this kind of attitude is guaranteed results. I bring it up because the contrast between Then and Now could not be more painfully stark, and frankly it should be embarrassing to the present regime.

• 1986: "It's a great day for hockey!"
• 2006: "All business."

Coach Playfair, you may have what it takes, and things may turn out great, but right now you are Fucking Up, sir.

The lads are presently down 2-1 after 20 minutes. I liked what I heard after they went down 2-0. We've been here before. 3-2 Win is the prediction. Go Flames.

Be sure and check out James Mirtle's foray into the Globe & Mail's hockey blog, Globe on Hockey. Someone somewhere mentioned the other day that the NHL should get on board with YouTube, and as James reports, they are in fact doing so. Congrats, James, and don't forget us little guys!

I would be remiss if I did not mention on this site that Calgarians have become so used to losing, and therefore so paranoid of the effect a team mascot can have on a game, that they have banned--you heard me, banned--Gainer the Gopher from this weekend's playoff game between the Stampeders and the Saskatchewan Roughriders at McMahon Stadium. Gainer is of course the Riders mascot, and the plan was for him to rally against the Stamps the thousands of Riders faithful who will be flocking to the game. Not anymore, because the Stamps as an organization have decided that, "Our fans have earned the right for us to be led on the field by our own mascot without competition from Gainer." Uh, sure, okay, whatever that means. The move has of course caused an uproar in Saskatchewan, to the point where the Minister of Culture, Youth and Recreation, the Honourable Glen Hagel, stood up in the legislature yesterday to voice his dissaproval (see page 98 of the Hansard).

"Well thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. Mr. Speaker, it is a sad day in Saskatchewan. Imagine our shock and dismay at our opponent’s display of bad blood and poor sportsmanship. Mr. Speaker, the entire province is incensed — and rightfully so — over what is clearly a violation of all that Saskatchewan people value and all that we hold near and dear.

And it begs the question: whatever happened to the rules of good conduct and proper etiquette and fair play? Mr. Speaker, football is a rough and tumble game, and we’ve witnessed other transgressions over the years. But, Mr. Speaker, this one is different. The hard hits and give-and-take that go on at field level are one thing, but banning Gainer the Gopher, the Saskatchewan Roughriders’ beloved mascot and our province’s favourite gopher, from McMahon Stadium for this weekend’s western semi-final against the Calgary Stampeders, Mr. Speaker — I say that this has simply just gone too far."

I think Hagel's anger was half-feigned, but because we're talking about the Riders, I can't be too sure. But his point still stands: whatever happened to the rules of good conduct and fair play? Whatever happened to sportsmanship? The issue here isn't even Gainer, it's Riders fans. Calgary is mad because so many Saskatchewan fans are in the seats, cheering for the opposition. But here's my suggestion to Stamps management: sell more tickets to Stampeders fans. It's revolutionary, I know, but if you can't sell tickets at your own stadium to your own fans then others will fill in the void. Furthermore, if you can't fill your own stadium with your own fans during a playoff game, then you deserve having to deal with Riders fans and their mascot. Suck it up losers, or sell some seats.

***Instant Update*** According to what looks like a Stamps press release here, Gainer is not "banned" from the Stadium; he just isn't allowed on the field. That's apparently not banning, because so many team mascots spend their time sitting in the upper bowl devouring hot dogs and cold bevvies. And speaking of dogs, what is the deal with the dog mascots in Calgary? Harvey the Hound. Ralph the Dog. You guys couldn't think of something more creative to go with the names "Stampeders" and "Flames", like, say, a Stampeder or a Flamer?

Record: 7-3-1		Record: 7-4-0
	Preview

The "Ex-Oilers We Love To Hate" show continues tonight, with Jason Arnott and the Nashville Predators strolling into town. Nashville has a decent road record, and the Oil have yet to lose at home. Someone's going down, and since the Preds played the Canucks Tuesay night, I honestly do expect the Oilers to win this game.

I was looking back at the Oilers draft picks, and 1993 was a pretty good draft for us. Arnott went 7th overall (is that why he wears #7, by the way?), David Vborny went 33rd, and Miroslav Satan went 111th. Unfortunately, they only played 412 games for us, and won Stanley Cups and had 40 goal seasons somewhere else. But it's at least a moral victory to know our scouts and GM knew what they were doing, right? It's not like they ever did something dumb and took some bum like Steve Kelly over local boys Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla...

Prediction: 2-1, Oilers. Stoll and Mägni Thöroson the Ëlectric Nörseman.