I don't think I've ever been that happy for Kiprusoff. Seriously. Also, I think I yelped louder for the Regehr tying goal than I have in a month (approximately, since the Tanguay/Iginla 2-on-1 goal vs. the Canucks). And for tomorrow night's purposes, Goilers.

The Flames host the Minnesota Wild tonight on TSN (8PM MT). Both teams have 75 points in 63 games; the Wild get the 7th slot in the rankings with more Wins.

You may recall that back in December, I broke down the NW standings a bit further, backing out OT & Shootout Wins. (And looking at that post, it's hard to believe that the division shook out like it has).

Again, I don't begrudge any team their success in 4-on-4 OT or Shootouts. I don't (presently) have a problem with the "3-point game", either: the rules are what they are, and they're known to every team from the start (as such, I certainly don't think you can call it unfair). My only concern is that, like I wrote about 2 years ago on my old site, if the incentive to simply reach OT makes 3rd periods dull. This data is available, maybe I'll crunch it one of these days.

Anyway, here are Calgary's and Minnesota's records on the season:

• CGY: 33-21-9, 75pts
• MIN: 35-23-5, 75pts

Here are their records if you just call shootouts Ties, like before the lockout (W-L-T-OTL):

• CGY: 33-21-5-4, 75pts
• MIN: 25-23-14-1, 65pts

And here are their records if all games ended after 60 minutes, like the old days (prior to ~86/87):

• CGY: 32-21-10, 74pts
• MIN: 20-23-20, 60pts

There is certainly room for argument as to the real meaning of these numbers (or lack thereof), but in 4-on-4 OT and shootouts, the Wild have 15 wins, the Canucks have 13 wins, and the Flames have 1 win. Do I think this means that the Flames would be a more dangerous 1st-round opponent for, say, Detroit? Yes I do.

I have slightly mixed feelings on the Flames having watched the last 3 games. I am not, per se, concerned that their games are higher-scoring than the 2 previous seasons. I banged on this a few times in the offseason: when you have an excellent goalie, some defencemen who can make plays, and some skilled forwards, it makes very little sense to insist that "trading chances" is a disaster. All else being equal (which it never is, but bear with me here), a game that features a lot of shots and scoring chances by both teams is generally going to be won by the team with the better goalie.

I couldn't get too upset about the 4GA vs. the Sharks even. Phaneuf gave one away at the blueline on the PP -- this happens to the best of them on occasion. Hamrlik gave one away up the middle that was promptly put behind Kipper -- this happens to Roman Hamrlik on occasion. The only one that made me really queasy was Warrener getting beat by Mike Grier with a PeeWee move, banking it off the boards and skating right by. That was fricking terrible, and I pray not a sign of things to come from #44.

Apparently the Wild have 1 win in their last 14 trips to the 'Dome. Looks good for the home team. I'm guessing Calgary 4 (Moss x2, Iginla, Stuart) Minnesota 3 (Todd White with a pair, Demitra with a late one that makes the result look closer than the game was). Go Flames.

So, barring an awful collapse or an incredible hot streak (insert that disclaimer in front of most statements in this post), the playoff teams in the West are set, and the rest of the season will be a matter of seeding. As such, I want to look at the East a bit more today.

Buffalo and New Jersey are going to be the top two seeds in the east, and the SE winner will be the 3rd. Ottawa is 20-4-3 in their last 27, with 18 of those wins coming in regulation: they are obviously very good, and will likely be the #4 seed (at worst, they'll be in the 4/5 series).

Pittsburgh tore through January and most of February, but I can't get too excited about their quality. A 14-0-2 streak (and points in every game for 5 weeks) is nothing to sneeze at, but I'm looking at their opponents through that streak right now: a whole 4 of those wins were against playoff teams (Devils, Nashville, Islanders, Dallas in a SO). The rest of the wins were WSHx2, PHIx2, TORx2, CHI, MTL, FLA, & PHX; OT/SO Losses to MTL & BOS.

The intriguing team is the New York Islanders. Not sure how well known this is, but the story for the Isles has been the same all year: very good at even strength, very poor special teams.

There's 7 teams in the league that are excellent at even strength: Sabres, Senators, Red Wings, Predators, Ducks, Flames, and Islanders. Then there's a big drop-off to 8th. This is especially apparent looking at Team +/-, but it's the same 7 looking at the ratio of GF/GA at 5-on-5.

Much like the Flames, the Islanders should probably be in a better position than they are. However, while the Flames have gotten the PP going to a point that they're now 8th in the NHL (they remain 24th on the PK), the Isles are a smelly 25th on the PP and 22nd on the PK. What they really need is a player who can help them on special teams without compromising their solid 5-on-5 play... which brings us back to yesterday's hot topic, doesn't it.

I like the Isles to finish strong, expand that 1-1/2 game cushion, and qualify for the playoffs easily. The kicker is, if they finish too strong, they end up in the 5th seed -- stuck playing Ottawa, who right now looks like the clear best team in the East.

As a bonus, here's a couple of bits from Newsday, the Long Island newspaper, on the Smyth acquisition. Columnist Mark Herrmann:

The Islanders need all the adrenaline they can get. Attendance hasn't been so hot, and television ratings have been in the infomercial range. So it was smart to give up former first-round picks Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra and the first-round pick this year for Smyth, who isn't signed past the end of this season.

He could walk and leave the Islanders with nothing, but so what? He had 31 goals and 22 assists in 53 games for the Oilers. Offensively skilled players don't grow on trees, and they sure don't grow in the Islanders' system.

Today's quiz: Name the last Islanders' No. 1 pick who turned out to be a good scorer for them. Try Pat LaFontaine, chosen in 1983. Nilsson and O'Marra looked more like Dave Chyzowski and Scott Scissons than they resembled LaFontaine.

And the blog -- there's a bunch of updates as things fell into place, but check out the post from right before the deal was announced:

Islanders leading scorer Jason Blake will be in the lineup against Philadlephia tonight. Despite interest from five Western Conference teams in Blake just before the trade deadline, none stepped up to meet the Islanders’ asking price.

But that doesn’t mean the Islanders are done. It’s past the deadline, but something is in the works, and it might be very big. Can’t say right now because it’s not finalized but stay tuned. If it happens, Islanders fans will be dancing for joy.

Well then. I guess I could make a "Both of them?" crack here, but naaahh. Charles Wang has taken some stupid risks in his time, but this one -- regardless of how it works out -- was worth it. They saw an opportunity in the East (correctly), and they saw a way to both address their weaknesses and bolster their strengths with a trade (correctly) to attempt to seize that opportunity. Good for them.

Since we started this site last season, I've been tracking and posting the standings in quarters. I still like it, and find it useful and interesting. One of these days or years, I hope to do some more sa-tistical analysis on the numbers; I'd like to know if team performance in any particular quarter has a significantly stronger (or weaker) correlation to overall finish and/or to postseason success. It's all part of our larger effort here to win money gambling on the playoffs understand NHL hockey a little better. Here are the results for each team's Games 41-60 (outlined), along with previous quarters and totals.


Please note that the Goal Differential numbers are from the Standings page, and thus include SO winners (e.g. if you excluded the Shootout goal, CGY would be +16, VAN +14, minor differences).

The main item that jumps out at me here is OOF! -- was Anaheim ever terrible in the 3rd quarter. 5 regulation wins in 20 games. Obviously the injuries were a factor, but that's terrible nonetheless. The silver lining for them, such as it is, continues to be that their best success has come against other probable playoff teams (they had losses to EDM, COL, STL, and CBJ in this stretch, but beat DET, SJS, and DALx2).


I pay a lot less attention to the East than I do to the West, so maybe some of this is beyond obvious, but:

• The arcs of Buffalo and Ottawa are almost exactly reversed from last season. This year it's Buffalo's 1st-quarter dominance that's padding their overall lead. Note the Sabres' consistent decline by both measures through the three quarters.
• Also, much like the Leafs last season, the Habs' brutal 3rd quarter tanked what was otherwise a pretty good season.
• I don't know what happened to Carolina (even setting aside the Cup win, they were consistently good all last season), but it's hard to call it "Stanley Cup Hangover" when your 3rd quarter is quite a bit worse than your first half.

I have a few more thoughts, but I think I'll post them with the baseball standings.

This headline will haunt me forever. Cosh and I fought about this all night--and I mean ALL night--and I am still unconvinced that this was a sound business, hockey or community move. I'm of the opposite mind, in fact, and think it was poorly managed, along with horribly executed. I share none of Sacamano's sunshine. I'm too tired and exhausted by it all to say more, but it will come. With vengeance and pin-point accuracy, no less. But it will come. Today, watch what the MSM says. They will shape this argument, more than any other group. Myself, I like what Dan Barnes has to say. I like what the man has been saying all year, even when I disagree with him. In fact, I like him almost more when I disagree than when I agree. His writing strikes true, strikes of integrity. Ireland and Matheson? Kool-Aid drinkers, in my opinion. Might as well work for the EIG. The Sun? Ditto. Gene Principe? Ditto. Morley Scott? Ditto. Bob Stauffer? Ditto. Puppets to the lies, each and every one. There was no need, and no reason, for this trade, Edmonton. That's my morning message to you. No need or reason at all.

All you big-rigs out there need to slow your engines.

Losing Smyth sucks, there are no two ways about it. I didn't become an Oilers fan until 1998, and consequently my Oilers Experience is pretty much defined by that big goofy grin and greasy mullet. I love the guy.

And I'm pleased as hell to see that so many other fans are saddened by the trade -- it seems to me that this is the proper reaction from fans when they lose a "heart and soul" guy from their community. To be honest, it depresses me when fans take up the "it's a business" torch and bury their emotions in order to evaluate trades based on dollars saved, cap room, strength of draft years, and all kinds of other impersonal considerations.

Having said that, I'm forced to take up this torch myself in order to defend Kevin Lowe.

In short, I think Matt's post, and Avi's quotation, are pretty much nonsense.

Let's start with Avi's concerns about the management of the team:

• "We've had a decade and a half of useless drafting"

Baloney. You can't pin drafts 15 years ago on the current management. As Lowetide points out, in the K-Lowe Era (i.e, since 2000) the Oil have been dynamite at the draft table.

• A pre-CBA exodus of elite UFA talent

Yep, losing Todd Marchant was a real kick in the cajones. Look, I think it is pretty fair to say that Lowe was one of the best in the league at anticipating the CBA and putting his team in a position to capitalize on the early post-CBA enviroment. The team was young, talented, fair priced, and there was a big pot of money available to sign Peca, Pronger, Spacek, Roloson, etc. They did, afterall, make it to the Cup Final last season. Certainly this season was a disaster, but I'm not sure it can be entirely pinned on "management" as opposed to injuries and the Pronger Screw Job.

• "The loss of two major players despite being in a post-CBA world"

What total nonsense! They didn't "lose" them, nevermind lose them owing to some sort of CBA-related issue. The Pronger and Smyth trades weren't about money, folks. Or were you talking about Peca and Samsonov?

• "a '06 summer of signings that were above market-price for middling talent"
  

This one I'll give him partial marks for; but I'll note that it doesn't seem totally unreasonable to try to keep together a team that was one game away from a Stanley Cup, even if it means slightly overpaying to make it happen.

As for Matt's argument that K-Lowe is "timid" -- I'd be a whole lot more convinced if he could point to any of the last Stanley Cup winners and demonstrate that their greater success was a result of their GM "taking risks". What, exactly, were those risky moves that let them climb the ladder? And did the Oilers make it to the Stanley Cup final only in spite of an, apparently, "timid" management strategy? Afterall, there was only one team last season that was more successful than Edmonton (hint: it wasn't the one run by that crazy risk taking Sutter -- I'd certainly classify signing Jeff Friesen to a contract in which he is expected to play ice hockey a risky endeavour).

I'm not even sure I understand what it means to be a risk taker. Was signing Peca and Pronger risky? Was taking Juri Dopita and Adam Oates risky? Was playing hardball with Comrie risky? Was waiting until last year's trade deadline in order to get a better deal on a goaltender and hoping your team is still in position to capitalize, risky? Was trying to do the same thing this year with defensemen risky? Would signing Smyth to a big, fat, long contract in order to keep him around be risky?

All I know about draft picks and emerging talent comes from Lowetide, who said that "Kevin Lowe got an excellent return today" and Speeds, who said that ". . . this is fantastic value for the Edmonton Oilers".

Seems to me like it was the right move. And given Lowe's track record of making consistently good moves over the last 6 years, I'm not about to throw myself off the Highlevel.

But, man oh man, will I miss Smytty.

As a hockey weblogger, here's the interesting thing about Deadline Day to me: with so, so much media attention and dozens of people on TV and radio offering their immediate opinions on everything, it's almost impossible to find an original thought of your own. To determine what's sensible, though, you do have to do a bit of sifting. Friend of the BoA Avi Schaumberg had an excellent comment on the previous post:

If this was a well-managed team, in the manner of Billy Beane, I'd be applauding the decision. Smyth was great, but he's 31. That alone says it's time to sell. If Lowe had a reputation as a brilliant GM, I think we'd be sad but supportive. What's causing the outrage, I think, is the doubt we all feel about the competence of the front office. We've had a decade and a half of useless drafting, a pre-CBA exodus of elite UFA talent, an '06 summer of signings that were above market-price for middling talent, and the loss of two major players despite being in a post-CBA world. There is no reason to think this team is well-managed, and that's the part that burns. A well-managed team could afford to keep a sentimental team leader who's entering his decline years, or move him and turn a first-round pick into a real return. A poorly-managed team doesn’t even know which to try, much less have the ability to give itself the option.

These things are true:

1. Ryan Smyth's abilities will decline over the next 5 years
2. There will be at least one (likely more) occasion over the next 5+ years -- when Smyth is out with a persistent back or groin injury, or has scored 2 goals in the previous 23 games -- when Oil fans will be palpably relieved that the team isn't on the hook for another $10+ Million going forward.
3. The organization will be forgiven by most next time they go on a winning streak, which could easily happen before the end of this 06/07 season.

In that sense, it's extremely unlikely that the organization will be haunted by this move. However, if you sense my nodding approval, you are incorrect, as this is precisely my criticism of Lowe. I actually laughed out loud this afternoon when I heard Flames radio guy Rob Kerr say that this took cojones by Kevin Lowe. No. This is the common thread through virtually every move (or, not trivially, non-move) that Kevin Lowe makes.

With the notable exception of the Pronger panic deal, you can't look back on any individual move that Lowe has made (ever?) and say, "Wow, he cocked that up!" No prospects that blossomed after he dealt them, no draft picks that someone else turned into a top-flight NHLer, no contracts that seem ludicrously large. He never does anything that might look bad on him in the future, whether to his bosses or to the "smart guys" around the NHL.

It would seem that taking very few risks results in a 7th-10th place finish every single season. That's good for some, worse for others. If he was managing my stock portfolio, I'd probably be ecstatic. If I were a major fan of the Oilers' chief rival, I'm perfectly happy (P.S. I'm perfectly happy). But it's a mighty timid strategy for the GM of a pro sports team.

I like Smytty. I hope he has a nice run this spring, and finds a loving home on July 1. Good luck to you, sir.

***Update: The Oilers will hold a press conference at 4 p.m. MST.***

***Trade Update*** Ryan Smyth has been traded to the New York Islanders for Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson, and a 1st Round pick for Ryan Smyth.

***Trade Update*** Dave Hale and a 5th Round pick have been traded to the Calgary Flames for a 3rd Round pick.

Here's the info on the Oilers current and expected salary cap space, just in case you need it. I'll post here if anything pops up, and will probably keep this post up top all day. Spector, Mirtle, Chris! and Tyler will be covering it all. Feel free to email Matt or I, or leave stuff in the comments, if you see anything on either the Flames or the Oilers. Three things to watch for, from the Oilers perspective:

1) Ryan Smyth signed, traded or neither.

2) Other players being traded (Sykora, Lupul, Torres, Tjarnqvist, Jussi, Smith, Winchester, prospects).

3) Other players coming in (you got me).

***Matt Morning Update: $21.8M / 4yrs***
Ryan Smyth should have all the leverage today, right? With the bell tolling for the Oil's playoff hopes on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon (and last night), plus the Messier thingy tonight, surely Lowe & Friends would really, really, really rather sign him to an extension than trade him, right? ...then again, I thought the NHLPA had all the leverage in July '05, when the NHL was beginning plans for suspending a second season, and that's exactly when the PA surrendered unconditionally.

I think the Smyth "third way" is quite possible, though -- neither sign nor trade him, then use from now until July 1 to mitigate the backlash of his leaving.

Also, here's the prediction of the year:

When TSN’s website crashes (tentatively scheduled for 9:30 a.m.)...

I just got a "Server Error in "/" Application - Runtime Error" at TSN.ca. Time? 9:28AM EST.

Matt and the family must still be on Vacation ("look kids, it's Big Ben"), so I'll just throw this up. Georges Laraque has been told he won't be playing for the Coyotes again, and has been a healthy scratch since the 19th. Rumours persist that he is going to Penguins, but it also appears that it is the Coyotes perpetuating those rumours, in the hopes of getting Pittsburgh to deal. I will point out that the year that the Oilers roster has been decimated by injuries coincides with the year Le GG isn't on the roster, but I'm sure there is no causal relationship there. It's all in my mind. It also appears that Kevin Lowe is content with telling Oilers fans there are no deals to be made at the trade deadline, while all the while teams like the Flames and Canucks have been working to improve their roster. Everyone's going to be so drunk off of the Messier punch that it will be Wednesday morning before they go, "hey, what the hell happened to our season?" It kind of makes you wonder if it was planned to be this way all along. But again, that's just another crazy idea rolling around my mind. Spector and Mirtle have all the action on the moves the Oilers aren't making (it at least looks like we'll finally have an end to Temujin's crazy Smyth rantings, as the Nucks have just acquired Smolinksi and Sopel). GOYOTES!

The Tetragrammaton said I should rest this day, and so I shall. Go forth, Oilers, and multiply thine success...


GOILERS!!!!!

p.s. Is this Sun article actually titled "Too Legit To Quit"? Wow. That is all kinds of wrong. Oh, and check out this article. Apparently Sabres owner Tom Golisano thinks that clean hits equal "maiming". No wonder everyone thinks the Sabres organization and fan base are a bunch of whiners. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

Huge 24 hours in the Northwest. HUGE. Flames and Sharks at 8 tonight. Oilers and Wild at noon tomorrow. Wins and losses in both games change much. Colorado and Vancouver play tomorrow, too. Trade deadline on Tuesday. So much at stake, no speak in proper sentences.

Don't forget Sabres/Sens game tonight, either. 5 MST. HNIC. BOO will surely cover it. Prolly Sabre Rattling, too.

GOSHARKS!!!

Screen capture from Yahoo.

Do people actually attend games in Hockeytown, USA? Or are the Tigers playing again tonight? Pfft.

Some items to quickly share:

• It looks like Scott Petersen of The Edmonton Journal liked my post about the University of Alberta Golden Bears so much that he decided to use it for his own story two days later. Shin-pad whack to Abboud for the link.

• Pursuant to my post yesterday about Mayor Mandel's push for a new hockey arena, another "story" in today's Edmonton Journal. Remember Dan Mason, the "expert" the Canadian Press sourced last time they spun this story for the Mayor and the EIG? The guy Tyler figured out doesn't have a single degree in economics or business? Oh, he's back, with an absolute yarn of a tale.

University of Alberta physical education professor Dan Mason said sports stadiums have been at the centre of several successful American downtown rehabilitation projects, often helped by civic financing.

For example, San Diego, Calif., put $554 million US toward a new baseball field for the Padres that opened in 2004 as well as nearby amenities after the owner guaranteed the project would spur at least $450 million in development for the surrounding rundown neighbourhood.

There has actually been $4.2-billion worth of growth, which is paying for the municipality's investment through higher property taxes, Mason said.

"Cities have smartened up and they're viewing the facilities as the centre of a much broader economic development project. That's why they tend to fit better in downtown."

Anyone believing this fairy-tale should read the Rappaport-Wilkerson or Coates-Humprey reports for some clarification. At least the Journal reported that Mason's a Phys. Ed. professor.

And apparently, according to the Mayor, we only need a quick review, and then we can decide this in the summer, when no one's watching, and probably right around the time the Mayor wants to launch his election campaign at our expense:

A decision on whether to take the "bold step" of building a new downtown arena to replace Rexall Place could be made by mid-summer, Mayor Stephen Mandel said Thursday.

He wants people from the city, Northlands Park and the Edmonton Oilers to pick a committee within six weeks to look at financial, engineering, design and other issues, with recommendations by the end of July.

"I don't think this has to be complicated. In general parameters, you find out what these things are going to cost, and then look at the locations, and go from there."

...If the city goes ahead with a new site, it would need to find funding and a design, he said, adding a building could be finished in three or four years.

Unbelievable. Shockingly, the Mayor still hasn't been forced to answer the question of who will pay for this. Nod to Avi for the link.

• A hilarious video called "Clarke, the Canadian Hockey Goalie", from Salon. Glove tap to Hall-Z for the link.

• My salary cap post from this morning is still awesome. Plus, I spent so much time on those pretty graphs and images. Give it the love it deserves.

• Ball hockey is on for tonight. Email me if you need the address. Have a good weekend everyone!

Labels: New Arena

Season Record: 29-26-6	Season Record: 39-16-6

Hey hey hey! What's shaking folks? Nice win by the fellas last night, and another big tilt tonight.

I have very little to say about tonight's game (the Oil will win obviously); but I wanted to implore everyone to cool their jets. The Oil end their season with a 6 game roadie, culminating in a massive BofA. This guarantees them a playoff spot.

Look, the Hockey Gods aren't fools. They know that a season ending BofA must be meaningful in order that the Universe keeps on trucking. As such, I see no reason to believe that they won't rig the remainder of the regular season to ensure that the final game is a Ring-a-Ding-Dong-Dandy.

Here are some irrelevant data points on how it looks with 21 games remaining

• 10 home (4 game stretch, 6 game stretch)
  
• 11 road (2 games remaining in 7 game stretch, 3 game stretch, 6 game stretch to end the season)
• 14 games vs teams above us in today's standings
• 7 games vs teams below us in today's standings (including 2 vs Colorado)
• 5 games remaining vs Minni
• Only 3 back to back games (including tonight) and one is vs the hapless Kings

It's in the bag, folks.

If you want to prove it to yourself, I'm throwing the Ole Playoff Predictor up early this year. Fiddle around with the results of future games all you want, it always comes up roses for the Oil.

BTW, I tried to put this thing up on google spreadsheets, but couldn't figure out how to let everyone download it from there -- so you will just have to trust me that it doesn't contain any malicious code. If anyone is better at google spreadsheets than I am, give 'er hell.




As for tonight's game.

4-2 Oil. Hemsky, Horcoff, Smyth, Hemsky

***Andy Early Morning Update*** I have a post that I just finished (5 A.M.), but it's insanely long, so I placed it below this one. Check 'er out. GOIL!

Intrigued by the fact the the Oilers have yet to sign Ryan Smyth, or make a significant trade to improve their roster, I thought I'd take a look at the team's cap totals and depth charts for this season, and the next three seasons. Basically, I am unconvinced that it will cost too much to keep Ryan Smyth here, and want to see what the numbers tell me. It's not going to be perfect, because I don't know things like which prospects will make the team in the future or how many games they'll play in a season, the future price of RFA's, the future price of UFA's, which players will want to stay here, which players will want to come here, which players will want to leave, the cap limit the year after next, etc.. It's a lot of guessing. But I thought I might become more well-informed by painting a picture for the next four years, and seeing what it tells me. Hopefully others can chip in, and we can get a better idea about things. The salary cap numbers are all courtesy of Irish Blues, and should be up-to-date as of yesterday.

---

2006-2007

Let's start off with this year. Here's what we know: the salary cap for the 2006-2007 NHL season is $44 million (unless you are Lou Lamoriello; then it can be anything you want). All the stories at the beginning of the year speculated that the Oilers would want to float around the $39-$40 million mark for the season. The current cap count on Irish Blues site says that the Oilers have in fact already spent $41,435,122 million. That would leave them with $2,669,878 to spend on the rest of the season, if they chose to spend to the cap limit. A new story in USA today says that the Oilers have spent $41.2 million, and have $3.03 million in cap space. I believe the difference is that the USA Today numbers include injury exemptions, whereas Irish Blues numbers do not. I'm not sure, but either way, it's close. The point is, the Oilers have the space to spend on additions this year, even if they don't trade back someone on their roster. As Mirtle notes, "teams will have to pay roughly 22 per cent of any player salaries they pickup on Feb. 27," and, "you can multiply a team's available cap space by 4.56 to determine the amount of total player salary they can accumulate on deadline day." The USA Today story has a list of the top players rumoured to be traded before the deadline next Tuesday. Think the Oilers need defencemen? Well, they could acquire Sheldon Souray, Aaron Miller, Bryan Berard and Eric Brewer, give nothing up on their current roster, and still have around a million dollars left over to play with. None of this is really news, of course, and just because you can acquire those players doesn't mean you should (especially if you are giving up too much in terms of prospects and draft picks), but it would be erroneous for anyone to say that the Oilers can't acquire players on February 27th because they are too close to the cap. The choice to not spend money right now is solely dictated by ownership's personal budget, and player personnel decisions.

---

2007-2008

Player	2007-2008 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Jarret Stoll	$2.2 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Jason Smith	$1.976 million
Devan Dubnyk	$984,200
Marty Reasoner	$950,000
Marc Pouliot	$942,400
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Tom Gilbert	$907,500
Rob Schremp	$780,556
Danny Syvret	$725,000
Slava Trukhno	$683,333
JF Jacques	$668,333
Jonas Almtorp	$587,500
Troy Bodie	$581,667
Patrick Thoresen	$570,000
Stephane Goulet	$541,667
Zach Stortini	$534,333
Bryan Young	$533,333
Liam Reddox	$508,333
Sebastien Bisaillon	$500,000
Fredrik Johansson	$500,000
Tyler Spurgeon	$500,000
Tim Sestito	$487,500
Ryan Smyth	UFA
Petr Sykora	UFA
Daniel Tjarnqvist	UFA
Peter Nedved	UFA
Jan Hejda	UFA
Jussi Markkanen	UFA
Toby Petersen	UFA
Raffi Torres	RFA
Matt Greene	RFA
Alexei Mikhnov	RFA
Jeff Deslauriers	RFA
Kyle Brodziak	RFA
Brock Radunske	RFA
Mathieu Roy	RFA
Brad Winchester	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$38,455,089
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$31,267,000

Legend
• Players on on the depth charts may be out of position.
• The depth charts only include players signed for that year, and players who have played on the team in 06/07 (so prospects like Grebeshkov, Schremp and Dubnyk are not included. Nor are unsigned players like Ryan Smyth, Raffi Torres or Matt Greene). The depth chart therefore gets smaller and smaller as the years go on.
• The cap total for players on the depth chart assumes a full season of play, which may not in fact be how it pans out.

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return: Raffi Torres, Matt Greene, Brad Winchester, Mathieu Roy, Kyle Brodziak
Players Unlikely To Return: Peter Nedved, Jussi Markkanen, Alexei Mikhnov
Prospects Who May Make The Roster: Denis Grebeshkov, Jeff Deslauriers, Rob Schremp, Devan Dubnyk
Uncertain: Ryan Smyth, Peter Sykora, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jan Hejda, Toby Petersen

---

2008-2009

Player	2008-2009 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Devan Dubnyk	$984,200
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Rob Schremp	$780,556
Slava Trukhno	$683,333
Stephane Goulet	$541,667
Bryan Young	$533,333
Liam Reddox	$508,333
Sebastien Bisaillon	$500,000
Tyler Spurgeon	$500,000
Jason Smith	UFA
Marty Reasoner	UFA
Jarret Stoll	RFA
Marc Pouliot	RFA
Tom Gilbert	RFA
Danny Syvret	RFA
JF Jacques	RFA
Jonas Almtorp	RFA
Troy Bodie	RFA
Patrick Thoresen	RFA
Zach Stortini	RFA
Fredrik Johansson	RFA
Tim Sestito	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$26,824,856
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$21,793,434

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return:Jarret Stoll, Marc Pouliot, Tom Gilbert, Danny Syvret, JF Jacques, Patrick Thoresen, Zach Stortini
Players Unlikely To Return:
Prospects Who May Make The Roster: Devan Dubnyk, Rob Schremp, Slava Trukhno, Tyler Spurgeon
Uncertain: Jason Smith, Marty Reasoner

---

2009-2010

Player	2009-2010 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Dwayne Roloson	UFA
Shawn Horcoff	UFA
Joffrey Lupul	RFA
Devan Dubnyk	RFA
Ladislav Smid	RFA
Rob Schremp	RFA
Slava Trukhno	RFA
Stephane Goulet	RFA
Bryan Young	RFA
Liam Reddox	RFA
Sebastien Bisaillon	RFA
Tyler Spurgeon	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$11,300,000
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$11,300,000

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return: Joffrey Lupul, Devan Dubnyk, Ladislav Smid, Rob Schremp, Slava Trukhno
Players Unlikely To Return: Dwayne Roloson
Prospects Who May Make The Roster:
Uncertain: Shawn Horcoff

---

Here's what we know: as the USA Today story notes, the salary cap for the 07/08 season is expected to jump up to $47 or $48 million dollars. The story also indicates that many teams will choose to not max out on the cap. They aren't referenced in the story, but the Oilers are certainly going to be one of those teams. Darren Dreger noted in an article a couple weeks ago that the Oilers would like the cap to be around $40 million, so I expect that is the most they want to spend.

In looking at the Oilers cap payroll for the 07/08 season, therefore, several things pop up. First off, their payroll, if you included every single player they had signed for next year, would be around $38.5 million. That places the team about $10 million away from the cap limit, and right up against their own probable budget. Many of the players in that total are prospects playing in the minors or only getting part-time ice in the show, though. So that number is a bit misleading. It's probably better to start with players who are signed next year, and who have played in the NHL this year. That still isn't perfect, as players like Tom Gilbert, Marc Pouliot, and Danny Syvret are still at the beginning of their careers, but I think it's better than leaving them off. That roster--Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, Fernando Pisani, Joffrey Lupul, Ethan Moreau, Marc Pouliot, Patrick Thoresen, Marty Reasoner, Zach Stortini, JF Jacques, Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Ladislav Smid, Danny Syvret, Tom Gilbert and Dwayne Roloson--costs around $31.2 million, assuming all of those players play in the NHL all year. That leaves around $17 million in space if the Oilers spent to the cap limit, and around $9 from their own $40 million barrier. It also leaves them with some holes in the depth department. Raffi Torres and Matt Greene are Restricted Free Agents who the team will most certainly need to re-sign. The team will need a back-up goalie. Newly acquired defenceman Denis Grebeshkov needs to be signed, and at this point and time seems to be slotted in for next year. Then there are the Unrestricted Free Agents: Petr Sykora, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jan Hejda, and Ryan Smyth. Adding all those players only bumps the depth chart up to the way it is now. It doesn't include any off-season additions on defence, which is where most people believe the Oilers need to improve.

Let's play the guessing game. Let's say, in addition to the players already on my 07/08 depth chart, the Oilers add the following players for the following amount to their depth chart:

Raffi Torres (LW): $1.75 million (makes $875,000 in 06/07)
Matt Greene (D): $975,000 (makes $925,000 in 06/07)
Jeff Deslauriers (G): $633,500 (same as what he makes in 06/07)
Denis Grebeshkov (D): $915,100 (what Ladislav Smid makes in 06/07)
Daniel Tjarnqvist (D): $1.7 million (makes $1.625 in 06/07)
Jan Hejda (D): $1.3 million (makes $942,400 in 06/07)

Again, assuming everyone now on the depth chart plays the full season in the NHL--which isn't going to happen, but might be balanced out by potential underestimations in those signings above--the Oilers cap total for 07/08 is now up to $37,625,500. That is around $11 million away from the cap max, and just over $2 from the Oilers assumed budget maximum. Yet Petr Sykora, Ryan Smyth and a top four UFA defenceman remain unsigned. Not a problem if the Oilers spend to the cap max. You could give Smyth an average of $5.5 million a year, Sykora another $2.9, and have around $2.6 left to sign another defenceman. But if the Oilers stick to that $40 million budget, they are going to be hard-pressed to even sign Smyth, let alone Sykora (or a comparable) and another defenceman.

I'm surely overextending what the Oilers will spend in 06/07 by including so many prospects and young players on the depth chart, but I still think the conclusion is that, without dumping some bigger salaries, or spending beyond their own budget maximum, they can't keep Ryan Smyth. The room is available after 07/08, but that simply doesn't matter.

Uggh. I don't like this answer. Not one bit. I must be doing something wrong. Let's re-do the depth chart and salary table again.

(click image to enlarge)

Leaving Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Syvret, Jacques, Sykora and a UFA d-man out of the equation, this is what I get.

Player	2007-2008 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Jarret Stoll	$2.2 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Jason Smith	$1.976 million
Raffi Torres	$1.75 million
Daniel Tjarnqvist	$1.7 milion
Jan Hejda	$1.3 million
Matt Greene	$975,000
Marty Reasoner	$950,000
Marc Pouliot	$942,400
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Jeff Deslauriers	$633,500
Patrick Thoresen	$570,000
Zach Stortini	$534,333
Sub-Total	$35,324,167
Ryan Smyth	$5.5 million
Total	$40,324,167

Okay, that's more like it. Totally doable. Of course, I could be off on my guesstimates for the RFA's and UFA's, which would skew things. It also means the Oilers would end up with pretty much the same roster as the one that is in 9th place right now, although everyone will be a year older (good and bad). Again, if they spend near the cap max, the Oilers are in pretty good shape for next year. If they don't, and things stay the same, they will be hard-pressed to sign Smyth and improve the roster with external transactions.

There are other options as well. They could not re-sign Tjarnqvist and Hejda, use the money from both to target one UFA defenceman, and play a kid. They could sign Hejda and dress a kid, and use the extra money for Smyth or a forward UFA. They could also brainwash Lupul, and train him to kill the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Who knows? It's late, and my head hurts, so that will be all the guessing for now. I'll leave it to others to tell me what can and should be done. It seems that the obvious thing to do is spend to the league salary cap maximum. I mean, the EIG and Kevin Lowe told us the "new NHL" would allow the Oilers to compete, and keep their star players. It would be disingenuous for them to change their story now, wouldn't it?

On that laughable note, I'm off to bed.

Check out the Battle of Ontario tonight, folks. A brawl in one game, Kerry Fraser in the other. I'd be all over seeing or hearing that entire Sens/Sabres game. Anyone know how I might do that?

Here's a clip, thanks to Indrew over at BOO.



Here's the hit that started it all.

Sorry this is late. GOYOTES!!!

I was going to live blog this one, but just realized it is on PPV. So this is what we get instead. GOILERS!!!

"An aging and cramped Rexall Place could be transformed into a roomier, modern rink by adding a 13-metre wide doughnut around the existing arena at a cost of $225 million to $250 million, says a consultant's report."
I kid you not. From the front cover of today's Edmonton Journal.

But that's too much to spend on a renovated building, said Mayor Stephen Mandel, who suggested the report only bolsters the case for a new arena to be built downtown.
What?

But wait. It gets better. Later in the propaganda item story, Mandel says:

"I think there's many ways to look at how we can do this. I've several ideas but I don't want to talk about them yet until we get a little further down the road, but we're not going to burden our taxpayers with a $400-million or $300-million debt to have a new facility. That just won't happen."

Can I ask a question: why is anybody "asking" Mayor Mandel anything? And since they are "asking" him, could they ask him who, exactly, will be paying for all of this? And I mean, "asking" who will be specifically paying for all of this. Because my guess is that it won't be the City paying for either a renovated or new building. It will be the provincial government, which is to say the taxpayers of the province of Alberta. If the City has that kind of money, it's news to me, especialy since there wasn't enough money to plow our street two months ago. And if the province foots the bill for an arena here, you can bet your life they'll foot the bill for an arena in Calgary, too. There won't be any choice in the matter. That's how this province works. One for Edmonton, one for Calgary. And vice-versa. And then the small cities, towns and rural areas will be clamouring, too. So add even more money into the equation. Whatever that dollar amount is for an arena in Edmonton, whatever they decide taxpayers will pay, you can go ahead and double it, maybe even triple it. This reality invites the question: why hasn't the provincial government been quoted in any of these "stories?"

Let me be clear: the Mayor of Edmonton and the Edmonton Investors Group (which includes The Edmonton Journal) are being devious and underhanded in their undertaking to get a new hockey facility. Duplicitous. There is no public demand for a new arena. There never has been. It's being fabricated, created, right now, by the Mayor and the EIG, in order to advance their own agenda(s). It's shameful to me that the Journal has been complicit in the manufacturing of this story, and that no elected official has publicly spoken against this "initiative." If the Mayor has several ideas but "doesn't want to talk about them yet," I suggest that he do exactly that: be quiet. When he wants to be honest with the citizens of Edmonton and lay his and his buddies actual cards out on the table (rather than do what he is doing now, which is use his contacts at the Journal to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks), I'll gladly hear it. Until that time, I wish he'd just take a $1 doughnut and, well...you know.

***Update*** For public consumption, a Wall Street Journal article on the current trend in the U.S., which has franchises ripping out skyboxes in their stadiums. Glove-tap to Avi for the link.

***Update*** Here's another story on luxury seats from the Seattle Times.

Labels: New Arena

Anyone for some indoor ball hockey?

It looks like a friend of mine will be able to get his school gym this Friday. Email me at andygrabia@gmail.com if you are interested. Tentative time is 8 p.m., February 23rd. We might also play the following Friday, depending on how things go. The school is deep in the north side of Edmonton, so you'll need to get a ride or drive yourself. The good news is that you won't need to bring any equipment. The school has nets, sticks, balls, and full goalie equipment. A smaller group of us played there a few weekends ago, and it was a blast.

Nothing is certain yet, but I wanted to give people the heads-up. Again, email me ASAP if you are interested.

**A bit more on the "part luck" element of why the Flames road record is so poor:

• PP: 21GF/3GA, +18 Goal Differential
• SH: 7GF/35GA, -28GD
• EV: 51GF/51GA, 0GD
• Total: 79GF/89GA, -10GD

Those numbers exclude EN goals and the "shootout winner". Compare to:

• Wins: 7 Wins For, 22 Wins Against, -15 Win Differential

That's ridiculous. They've lost 15 more games than they've won, giving up 10 more goals than they've scored. It's almost impossible (even if you exclude the shootout wins against, it's still a -11 Win Diff).

**I Hope They're Not Talking Contract Extension Yet... Brad Stuart has been a Flame for 5 games, the team has allowed six PP goals in those 5 games, and Stuart has been on the ice for all six.

I'm not damning the guy yet, or deciding that AFence is actually the better player (though I think it's possible): however, the prize in that deal so far has been Wayne Primeau. While we've been waiting for Stuart to adjust to a new system, Primeau has stepped in and already become probably the most effective player on the 3rd/4th lines. Kudos to you, Wayne!

**I'm heading out of town tomorrow for a family vacation; I might get a Game Day up in the morning, but probably not. So chew on this: if the Flames were a stock at this moment, they'd be undervalued. Buy Buy Buy. Calgary 2 Phoenix 1 (Iginla, Primeau), San Jose 1 Calgary 4 (Lombardi, Langkow, Huselius, Stuart). Goooooo Flames!

Andy's note: This was written by Janet Lo, fine Oiler fan going to school in Ottawa. Kudos to her, Meena and Jason for planning the event, and well as the other Oil faithful who attended last night's game against the Sens.

---

EFFFFFFFFF. There are no words to describe how heartbroken and mad I am right now.

The Good

• We pissed off a fair number of Sens fans. It was great to hear our boos for Mike Comrie echoed throughout Scotiabank. And even better to see some Sens fans glaring at us and coming back with some "COMRIE ROCKS" signs after the second intermission.
• Booing Mike Comrie. I swear on the Oilers that we rattled him. There were times he'd get the puck, we'd immediately start booing and he'd cough it up or skate it out of the Oiler zone without even realizing that he crossed the blue line. Unfortunately... see "the ugly"...
• I'd guess that there was a 2:1 Sens to Oilers jersey ratio at Scotiabank tonight. Really pleasantly surprised with the number of Oiler fans there. Ran into an Oiler fan from Newfoundland who was attending his first ever Oiler game. Hope he had a good time.
• Reconnecting with old friends. Shout out to Hector and Cusie.
• Meeting new people with a shared love for the Oilers.
• 120 of us. In one section. Seriously too cool. Shout out to Meena and Jason, my co-conspirers in this massive operation that we started in October. Way to show Ottawa how *real fans* cheer for their teams. It was great how our "Let's go Oilers" chant rivalled head to head against the "Go Sens Go" cheer. We rock.

The Bad

• Sens fans suck. When we cheer "LET'S GO OILERS!" the best you can come up with is "Oilers suck"? LAME.
• Also, who leaves a game when there's 10 minutes to go in the third period and you're up 3-1? I think my section summed it up best with our chant: "PART-TIME FANS!"
• Hemsky. Great moves... too many moves. Not enough finish. GHAHHHH. Best quote of the night: "I am going to DESTROY Hemsky!!!!" (Sabina)

The Ugly

• Being screwed over by Comrie. Anyone else and I would have been semi-OK with it (aka wouldn't have cried).

---

Beware: Oil Country

The Crew Getting Primed

Sweet Logo

This Oiler Fan's Sign Read "Edmonton: The Nation's Capital City"

Helping The Boys Out

Is That Daniel Negreanu Behind That Lovely Lady?

Dear Kevin Lowe...

The Edmonton Rally Cap Equivalent: The Upside Down Hockey Sign Trick

Yes! It Works! 3-3. Tie Game!

The Mike Comrie Face (Literally & Metaphorically)

A few things to note:

**While it may not be likely, it's certainly conceivable that Vancouver could catch Anaheim for the #2 seed. (Hard to believe that on December 15, the Canucks were 10-1/2 games behind the Ducks.) Calgary or Minnesota could obviously catch the Canucks, but are too far back of the Ducks, especially looking at the Ducks' schedule.

**The one "definite" we can see here is that the Central Division runner-up will be the #4 seed, and host the 4/5 series. The chances of DET or NSH being passed by both ANA and DAL or SJS seem remote.

**What is less definite is what happens with the 5/6/7/8 seeds. It's been sorta assumed, for months now, that 2nd/3rd place in the Northwest will end up 7th/8th in the conference. I'm not so sure.

Stipulating (not assuming) that Vancouver wins the NW, it's not hard to imagine San Jose or Dallas being passed by Calgary or Minnesota -- a 2 game spread isn't much. Stipulating that Calgary gets their ship together and takes the NW, it's even money that Vancouver nevertheless tops the Sharks or Stars. (Hey, anyone up for a Canucks/Flames first round matchup? Alert readers may recall that the four previous times this has happened, in '82, '89, '94, and '04, the winner has gone on to the Stanley Cup Finals).

**Back on the Flames, while it's agonizing to watch games like last night's (and that 7-15-7 road record is stomach-churning), I'm still pretty bullish on the team for the final quarter and the playoffs. Some of their middling 10-10 record over the last 20 has just got to be attributed to luck.

Of those 10 wins, 8 were by two or more goals (and that's excluding empty-netters). The 9th was over VAN, where the Canucks scored 6-on-5 late to make it close, and the 10th was the 3-2 win over ANA just before the All-Star break.

Of those 10 losses, 3 were in a shootout, 1 was in OT, 2 were by 1 goal, and 3 were by [1 Goal + EN Goal]. Only one (in DET) was a legit 2+ goal loss.

I'm not crying -- they are where they are -- but I will say it's unlikely that they'll go 2-9 in close games over the next 20.

The painful irony here? Bryan Murray had it backwards. The Flames are 16-4 in 3-goal games, and 8-16 in 1-goal games. Ottawa isn't the Calgary Flames of the East -- the Flames are now the Ottawa Senators of the West.

Okay, that title is a tad misleading, as I'm not even certain Calgary College The University of Calgary has a team. Oh, the Dinos. That's right. Forgot about them.

Every year, I tell myself I'm going to attend all of the University of Alberta Golden Bears hockey games. And every year, I end up attending only two or three. Sadly, this year was no different. I attended the Oilers Rookies/Bears game in September, and failed to attend another game until this past Saturday, when the Bears wrapped up their regular season against the UBC Thunderbirds. So much for my attendance goal, and so much for my plan of writing about them all year on this site. What can I say? My bad.

The point is, three paragraphs in, that I went to the Bears game this past weekend, and loved it. I loved it, I loved it, I loved it. I loved it so much, I have no problem claiming that it's the best hockey product in the city. You heard me. The best hockey product in the city of Edmonton. Given the Oilers current woes, that claim may not shock some. But it'll most certainly set the die-hards off on a rampage. Well, I'm sorry. It's true. It's probably been true for the past 15 years, April to July of 2006 excluded. Here are five reasons why:


1) Affordability

The Oilers increased ticket prices by 21.4% this year. The average ticket now costs $61.16. It costs $95 for an entire season of tickets to Golden Bears games, including playoffs (but excluding the national championships). That's 16 games, for about $6 a pop. Even if you buy the tickets individually, an adult ticket only costs $8. And in an effort to encourage families to attend, tickets for a family of five (2 adults, 3 kids under 18) cost $20, total. This one isn't even close.

2) Proximity To The Ice

At the Clare Drake arena, anywhere you sit is like sitting in the reds at Rexall. The seats are less comfortable, and there's no server asking you if you'd like a $10 cup of half-warm Molson Canadian, but the action is so close you can literally smell it. I like the fact that I have to keep my eye on the game so that I don't take a puck in the face. I like feeling my body shudder when a big hit happens ten feet away from me. And I like being so close that the opposing team's players can hear my witty heckling about their name and lack of skill. I pay hard-earned money for those tickets. I have the right to let the future doctor, businessman or physical education teacher know what I think about his beard and the last name Gervais, don't I?

3) Success Is Fun

The Bears don't always win, but they almost always win. While Kevin Lowe's squad consistently finishes in 8th to 10th place, the Golden Bears roll over their opponents. Other than the Oilers rookie game this year, I've never been to a game where they lost. Never. Nor are the games usually close. When they lost two home games to Lethbridge at the beginning of February, it made the front cover of the city newspapers. That's how rarely they lose, especially at home. The Bears are currently the two-time defending National Champions. They are 25-8-0 on the season, 20-8-0 in their conference, and the #2 ranked team in the nation. Oh, and did I mention that they've accomplished this year's success with eleven rookies on their roster? Eleven. The Golden Bears are the most dominant force in the history of Canadian collegiate hockey, and likely deserve to be on any list of the most successful amateur hockey programs in the world. And they keep on winning. It just never ends. If that isn't enough reason to go to their games, I don't know what is.

4) The Quality of the Game

This is hockey how it should be: fast, hard-hitting, and with tons of creativity. I haven't been to games where the Bears aren't playing, so I can't speak to the quality of university hockey as a whole. But good God is there ever a beautiful game being played on the University of Alberta campus. There's no fighting, sadly, but that probably helps the overall quality of the game. If you can't skate and score, you won't make it. Actually, Cory Cross was a Golden Bear, so forget that. The officiating can be mediocre at times, but where isn't that true? This is a wide-open game with lots of skill and physical play. There's no clutching and grabbing, no trapping, and no skating up behind a guy and slamming his head into the ice. I don't know how else to explain it. It really has to be seen to be appreciated.

5) University Huss

I had another reason in my head when I thought of this post last night. Unfortunately, I was almost asleep, and fell for the old, "ah, don't get up, you'll totally remember it in the morning" ruse. F**k you, brain. Anyway, this is an excellent substitute that should probably be broadened out to say, "Campus Life." But I like the header, so it stays. As the old man at the club--not too old, just too old to be at the club--it gives me great pleasure to take in the optimism, vitality and overall sexiness of the UofA crowd. Sure, you get some beautiful babies of both sexes at Oilers games, but can you really be sure that they read and write? Exactly. Plus, the closest bar to Rexall is one where even the bravest souls fear to tread. At the UofA, RATT and The Powerplant are just a hop, skip and a jump away (and, to my knowledge, nobody dies there). Simply put, a Bears game is less crowded, less in vogue, and less dumb. Check, check, check.

---

Here's how the game went last Saturday. I attended with my son, girlfriend, and two friends. Most of us got in for free (passes), but it would have cost us maybe $40 as a group if we all had to pay. Parking was $3.75. We walked in and found seats about five rows up, at the end where the Bears would be playing offence for two periods. We saw a man bring in two large Pizza Hut pizzas from outside the arena to feed the group he was with. Bob Stauffer checked me out while I was walking to get some napkins, to the point that I was worried (he might have heard me cruelly giggling about his writing difficulties, or just longed for me. I don't know). I saw the single biggest, best and loudest body check of my life. We made pirate jokes about one of the Thunderbirds defencemen, and we know that he heard us (check out this list of UBC player names, by the way. Needless to say, we were in heaven). We actually saw a close game for once, and yet the Bears still came out with a 2-0 victory. I saw a woman's chest that was so...enlightening... I'm positive my IQ would have jumped 20 points if I had stared just a moment longer. Most importantly, other than anyone there to cheer on the T-Birds, people left happy. I know it. How can it be otherwise? The price is right. The environment is right. The quality is right. And the outcome is right. You don't get that combination much anymore, even at an Oilers game. Don't get me wrong, I'd take tickets to an Oilers game over tickets to a Bears game in a heartbeat. But looking at this list, I'm no longer certain why.

---

The Golden Bears have a bye in the Canada West playoffs this weekend. They will host the Canada West Semi-Finals from March 2nd-4th at Clare Drake Arena, on the University of Alberta campus. I plan on being there, and I hope you'll join me.

GOBEARS!!!

Tonight in Denver is the rubber match of the Flames mini-series with the Avalanche (7PM MT, RSN West). David Moss will not be in the lineup; he was hit from behind by Ossi Vaananen on Saturday and has -- well, let's hear it from Coach Playfair (this is the most detailed injury report you'll hear from a coach this season):

"His lips were all cut and split and his face was swollen up so we want to be really cautious with David," said Flames head coach Jim Playfair. "He took a nasty whack and was a little bit woozy after."

Apparently the Colin Campbell Wheel of Justice landed on "No Suspension", so Vaananen will likely be in the lineup for the Avs.

The only thing that has really interested me in this little series is Joe Sakic. Dude is still impressive. Did you know that he's on pace for his best season, statistically, since 2000-01 (when he won the Hart Trophy)? I'm sure he's getting a bigger chunk of PP time than he used to, owing to the lack of alternatives in the Avs' forward group, but still. Forget about things like leadership, intangibles, etc: he's extremely effective and dangerous. And that release is still something else.

**There was a bit of discussion in the comments at Lowetide's site about Flames backup goaltending. He might prove me wrong, but I just don't see Sutter acquiring another G.

The backup G position is important for (1) starter relief and (2) injury insurance. With nearly 3/4 of the season passed and a playoff spot pretty much locked up, (1) has become moot. Even if Playfair was to start the backup 6 times over the remaining 23 games (yeah right), I'm not that the upgrade would be measurable over such a small sample.

Insurance, of course, is a waste of money when you don't need it and critically important when you do. The difference between this and "real" insurance is that you don't actually know what the payout will be even if you do need it. Lowetide's commenters think that Jussi Rebounds would be an upgrade over Noodles. Let's say they're right -- by how much? Closer to marginal than massive, right? (Jussi's coach has started him 8 times this season -- that's 3 more starts than McLennan -- even though the guy he's relieving is 7 years older than Kipper and had a lot more struggles.)

So you take that marginal upgrade, and multiply that by the "chance he'll be needed", and what is that worth, exactly (whether you're talking prospects, draft picks, or just $$$)? It can't be that much.

If Kipper goes down for 6 months, there's plenty in the archives for me to point at and say, "I told you so", but it's basically too late now. Unless you can pick up a goalie that would be a definite, substantial, and obvious upgrade over McLennan (or Krahn/McElhinney if you prefer), AND not give up that much for him, it looks to me like a waste of time.

Can the Flames pick up their big 8th road win tonight? I suspect they can, provided that they stay out of penalty trouble. Call it Calgary 5 (Lombardi x2, Iginla, Ritchie, Phaneuf) Colorado 2 (career #601 & 602). Go Flames.

Record: 28-26-5		Record: 34-22-3
	Preview

• It's amazing to think that this team is still only eight points out of a playoff spot, isn't it? Roll off a four or five game winning streak, or four out of six, including a couple wins against the Wild, and the Oilers are back in the mix. Then again, St. Louis, with a goal differential of -26 (155 GF, 181 GA), are only two points behind them. And they haven't won three in a row since December 4th-8th. AND now the forward depth chart is also thin. So I'm not overly optimistic. I'd happily settle for a Ryan Smyth signing and a Georges Laraque re-acquisition, thank-you very much.

• Is this the end of The Tjits? Daniel Tjarnqvist may be back in the lineup for this game. If so, the defensive sets should be: Smith/Hejda, Staios/Smid, Greene/Tjarnqvist. But who will play the PP? If it was me, I'd dress Gilbert as a 7th d-man, and give him some substantial PP time.

**Update*** Joanne Ireland is reporting that both JF Jaques and Tom Gilbert are in for tonight. No word on Shaggy, but it appears that Horcoff and Smith are also banged up.

• Peter Nedved is thankfully out with an injury. Can I just state how absolutely wrong I was about saying that his acquisition was a good move? I figured for the cost, and the time he would actually play, it would be of benefit. Wrong. As Pat has said, his effort is there, but not much else. Pouliot has shown he deserves that extra ice-time, and I hope he gets it.

• With all the injuries, trades, and poor play, how much will we get to see of Brad Gilbert, JF Jacques, Mathieu Roy, Danny Syvret, Marc Pouliot, and Patrick Thoresen? And I know people will go off on this, but you have to expect that Rob Schremp will get a call up if the team falls out of the playoff race. Or has his recent benching in the AHL done him in for the year? Who else might we see?

• I don't know if I'll watch the game, as it is on PPV. But for those who do, keep an eye and ear out for Oilers fans in attendance. They have purchased 120 seats in Section 301, as well as other seats in the arena. That's an impressive feat, and I hope they all have a fantastic time at the game. Janet, if you want to send me a link or the pics themselves, I'll post them for all to see.

• For any who are on Facebook, we've started a "Friends of the Oilogosphere" group. Feel free to request an invite.


I'm not gonna lie. That's all I got. Between the Oilers performance this year and my own issues (it's mostly the latter), I'm completely lacking in inspiration. I'm letting myself, as well as others, down. I sincerely apologize for stinking so badly. In the words of Matt Albie, I'm in desperate need of a 4 A.M. Miracle.

Prediction: 4-1, Sens. Jason Spezza gets the Peter Forsberg Hat-Trick (goal, assist, and debilitating injury). Let's be honest, this is a damn good hockey team. The hope is that Gerber reverts to earlier season form, or that the Sens think they're in a playoff game. Then we're good to go.

GOILERS!!!

From a CP story on the GM's meetings in Florida, where the main topic of discussion was the instigator penalty.

''You have to get three instigators before you get suspended so I think players are allowed to do their job within the framework,'' said Dallas Stars GM Doug Armstrong. ''But also you want to make sure that the star players have the ability to do their jobs. You look back in the late 80s and early 1990s with players like (Wayne) Gretzky and Pierre Turgeon and they were getting 150, 160 points on a regular basis there was probably a little more freedom a little more room there and we want to make sure that next generation of players always can have that ability to.''

Pierre Turgeon? You are talking about skilled players in the 80's and 90's and your two examples are Wayne Gretzky and...Pierre Turgeon!? No Steve Yzerman, Joe Sakic, Mark Messier, Ron Francis, Dale Hawerchuk, Jaromir Jagr or, I dunno, Mario Lemieux?

Finally. I don't agree with all the points in this article, but at least it's asking the questions.

The Oilers thought so highly of Grebeshkov five years ago that they drafted Finnish toothpick Jesse Niinimaki three places ahead of him.

It looks far more like Stage 1 of a complete and unequivocal surrender on behalf of management. Lowe, who did not return Journal phone calls Sunday, argued that point to a Canadian Press reporter who was on the same plane from Toronto to Naples, Fla., where NHL general managers are meeting today.

We think we know. We think the fire sale is underway. While it may well be realistic and pro-active given their diminutive point total, expanding injury list and burgeoning manifest of passengers topped by the invisible Joffrey Lupul, that strategy and this town will not enjoy a satisfying union.

All emphasis mine.

The Edmonton Oilers have traded Marc-Andre Bergeron to the Islanders for Denis Grebeshkov. Who the hell is Denis Grebeshkov, you may say? Got me. All I know is that he's playing with Traktor Boy at Lokomotiv Yaroslav, and isn't available til at least next year. This trade occurred for one or some of the following reasons:

1) It's the first of a series of trades that will improve the roster.

2) It's the first of a series of trades that will deconstruct the roster.

3) It frees up some more money to sign Ryan Smyth (money that they actually already have, but anyway).

4) It's MAB. Who cares?

Thanx to those who linked to the story in the comments below. I was at my son's hockey game (1G, 2A) and would have missed it otherwise.

***Update***

• According to the Oilers webpage, the team also gave up a 3rd round pick in 2008 for Grebeshkov.

• The page also states that Shaggy is out for Tuesday's game, so unless other moves are made (including callups), the Oilers top six defencemen are now going to be Jason Smith, Jan Hejda, Steve Staios, Ladislav Smid, Matt Greene and Mathieu Roy.

• For reference, Bergeron's cap hit is $1,064,000. He is a UFA in 09/10. Courtesy of Irish Blues.

• Mudcrutch has a post up on MAB which is now moot.

• Lord Bob has an initial take on the Russkie we got back.

• So too does Young D. I actually forgot Ulanov was also playing with Lokomotiv.

• Spector has his take up on his blog.

• Lowetide weighs in.

• Covered in Oil has a great image of MAB and his new boss.