Tuesday, December 05, 2006


Flames Game Day

Tonight's game at the 'Dome should feature the loudest cheer of the year for an opposing team (pre-game, that is) as the Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes are in town (7PM MT, RSN West).

I'm feeling quite a bit of pressure writing this today. The "predictions" in these Game Day posts have always been a goofy throw-in -- a combination of well-wishing and hubris -- but improbably, I've pegged the exact score of the Flames' last three home games (as well as the Dallas game, and while I missed the score of Ducks game, I think I captured the spirit of the thing).

I haven't picked a single road game right, which I suppose is no surprise since the Flames are 3-7-2 on the road, and a Flames Win is a necessary precondition for my guess being right (not the other way around). They're 9-3-0 at home (all wins in regulation), so that's a lot more chances to be right.

I've been tracking goals and special-teams TOI this season, and the rates tell a tale. (As to WHY?, I can't say. I am a simple Unfrozen Caveman Internet Blog Person, etc...). Thru 12 Home and 12 Road games this season:

The Flames, and this is not hyperbole, have been fantastic at Even Strength this season.
All these rates would have been Top 3 in the NHL last season. The powerplay has been less impressive, but a mixed bag as you can see.
The average number to set these figures against is 6; roughly speaking (as an NHL average), the PP team scores 6 more goals than the PK team every 60 minutes. So the Home PP is actually pretty good, or at least not hurting them. The Road PP is putrid -- so putrid that it easily outweighs the good Home% in the overall number. Here's the PK numbers (again, -6 is roughly average).
Again we see that while the home number is very good, the road number is so awful as to make the total number below average.

Like I said, I don't really know how to explain these discrepancies. I think it's useful or interesting to know that all of the Flames' road woes can be pinned on the special teams, but why are they that bad? [shrug]. In the immortal words of Dickie Dunn/Andy Grabia, "You gotta work on the powerplay, Reg."

Anyway, Carolina tonight! I haven't haven't caught them this season (not much could top the last time I watched them play), but they're an interesting team. They have 4 guys in the NHL's Top 20 in ES scoring (Bd'A, Whitney, Walker, Cole) but none in the Top 75 in +/-. I believe the term for that is "high event players".

Also, Jarome Iginla's career G-A-Pts line is presently 298-299-597. I think tonight is Milestone Night: the Man scores 2, assists on a Tanguay goal, and Kobasew and McCarty score as well in a thrilling 5-3 Calgary victory. Your Pick3 number is 8-5-8, and for the 6/49 I'd recommend 3, 8, 19, 29, 46, & 47. Go Flames.

***Andy Update
Below is a shocking, never before seen photo of Matt Fenwick, IBP, working the phones for one of his Battle of Alberta posts.


Again, who the hell do I cheer for?

The terrorists.

If you get this score right, Im gonna start placing bets based on your (home game) predictions. Seriously.

More on the PK: In every away game we have allowed at least one PP goal. (except Ottawa, where we shut 'em out) In 12 road games we have allowed 2 or more PP in SIX (6) of them! As of this writing the Flames (24 gp) lead the league in GA, only 2.3GA/game. Of 57 goals against, 29! are PP goals. Home and away, there have been only 5 games where the Flames have allowed 0 goals against; 3 of those games were shutouts.

Home and away, there have been only 5 games where the Flames have allowed 0 goals against; 3 of those games were shutouts.

That sentence alone is pretty funny.

oops, that should be only 5 games where 0 pp goals allowed, 3 games were shutouts

Just don't get to caught up in your predictions a la Matthew McConaughey as John Anthony/Brandon Lang in Two for the Money.

I'm just saying...

Brind'Amour has 24 ES points and yet he's still only +6. I noticed that last night.

Wow. The Red Scum of the North meet the Red Scum of the South. Best case scenario is the Flames lose in regulation, but the Camel, Whitney and Jesus-boy Ward all suffer career ending injuries when they are struck by fragments of Eric Cole's exploding vertebrae. Yeah, that sounds pretty good.

That was inspired.

Me, I think I want Carolina to beat the stuffing out of the Flames, so that they come into Edmonton overconfident and get creamed themselves. You know, like G7 in reverse.

It is not possible to watch the Flames and be entertained. Seriously. They are truly the most boring team on the planet.

And is it just me or does their crest get bigger every year?

Now, that is how you take care of business against the Hurricanes.

Hopefully, Rod and the boys will be good and pissed off heading to Edmonton tomorrow night.

Go Flames. Go Canes. Yeah Baby.

if Vernon gets his sweater retired, we're going to have to rename the city for Kipper.

That's quite the Zach Morris Phone that Matt carries around.

Hey, if Matt is able to get the kind of stuff done that Zack Morris got done on his phone, the Flames are half way there.

Good lord that was a bad game by the 'Canes.

I think they all got off the plane in Des Moines when it refueled, and the Pod People took their places.

It is not possible to watch the Flames and be entertained.

The last two Flames games were veritable artistic masterpieces compared to the last 2 Oilers games.

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?