Latest in a near-daily trend of "things that make Dion Phaneuf's price go up": Jason Spezza has signed a long and lucrative contract extension. Anyone care to guess what Phaneuf's deal is going to look like? Here's what I wrote in early July:

Sutter has long been aware that Phaneuf will be due a big raise, but these events [the Whitney, Vanek, & Crosby deals] have certainly made Phaneuf more expensive. They have also introduced an element of risk (and of urgency) to contract negotiations with Phaneuf, where it probably wasn't a concern previously.

Certainly now, there's no way to get Phaneuf signed to a contract any longer than one year for less than $4M/yr. If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that eats up 2 or 3 of his UFA years (like Whitney's), the price is surely going to be in the $5M range. And that's today: if his form rounds out in the early part of this season (i.e. he takes that next step we've all been waiting for since at least the beginning of last season), the price goes up some more.

First off, I'd like to get your guesses as to what Phaneuf will get (maybe plurisapience will give us an accurate answer). Secondly, I was mulling over what the best -- or most original -- way for the Flames to approach this might be.

In fact, I was just congratulating myself on a great idea! We know this:

• Flames are already looking tight on the cap next season
• After next season, the contracts of Aucoin, Warrener, Eriksson, and Nilson come off the books (total = $8.85M), as well as Tanguay's ($5.25M)
• You can sign a player in the final year of his contract to an extension

So, I figured, why not negotiate 2 contracts with him? On July 1st, he signs a 1-year deal for $3M, and then 5 minutes later he signs an 8-year $60M extension? There are rules in the CBA against signing a contract with any wink-wink understandings, but when the understanding is "right after I sign document #1, I'm going to sign document #2", there's not much that's secret or untoward there, and they could probably get away with it.

Unfortunately, the lawyers thought of this, as I found out as soon as I checked the CBA on extensions (50.5 f, since you asked). A player on a 1-year deal can't sign an extension until January 1 of that season. So much for that bright idea.

This isn't to say that a 1-year deal is impossible, however: it's distinctly possible. The Flames can quite openly say, "Look: we'll be in a much better position to negotiate a long-term deal with you when Aucoin et al come off the books. If you sign a one-year deal, clearly our intention will be to sign you to a long-term extension, and why wouldn't it be?" Then Phaneuf can make his own decision, based on his own preferences, and priorities, and assessment of the risk.

There are basically 4 possibilities:

1. A one-year deal (say $4M-$4.5M). This could happen per the scenario above (Phaneuf believing he can get a better deal next year, and the Flames basically agreeing), or simply because they can't agree on a longer-term deal. Phaneuf is not arbitration-eligible; this is the "Fine, let's argue about this later" scenario.
2. A medium term (2-3 year) deal. $5M or so per year.
   
3. A long term (4-6 year) deal. Surely this would be up in the $6M+/yr range.
   
4. An ultra-long term (Vanek-to-Dipietro) deal. Probably a smaller annual salary than than the long term deal, just because there is so much total money guaranteed, in the event that Dion gets Brett Lindros-ed in 2009.
   

My suspicion is that #3 is the least likely scenario. Darryl Sutter, frequently to the Flames' detriment IMHO, puts a lot of weight on young players proving themselves, not merely through performance but also through time. I just have a very hard time seeing him giving Phaneuf essentially the same deal as Iginla or Kipper.

Accordingly, #2 is more plausible than you might think, given the recent trend of 6-7 year deals for top-end RFAs. Relative to most other GMs, Darryl Sutter would probably not be panicky about having to re-sign Phaneuf again in 2-3 years, at potentially a much higher salary.

#4 is the wild-card. I have no idea if the Flames as a corporation are willing to sign someone to a 10-year guaranteed contract, even if, on balance, it's the best move for the franchise. Whether they are or are not, even in theory, is none of our business as a matter of team policy. Phaneuf seems like as good a candidate as there is in the league for this type of deal, but who knows.

Guesses?