As usual, I have no inside information or particular insight, but it looks to me like three things happened these past 10 days which, cumulatively, have thrown a monkey wrench into Darryl Sutter's medium-range plan for the Flames roster.

1. Pittsburgh signs RFA D Ryan Whitney to a 6-year, $24M contract
2. Edmonton GM Johnny Fontane signs RFA C Thomas Vanek to a 7-year, $50M offer sheet, which Buffalo then matches
3. Pittsburgh signs RFA C Sidney Crosby to a 5-year, $43.5M contract extension

Sutter has long been aware that Phaneuf will be due a big raise, but these events have certainly made Phaneuf more expensive. They have also introduced an element of risk (and of urgency) to contract negotiations with Phaneuf, where it probably wasn't a concern previously.

Certainly now, there's no way to get Phaneuf signed to a contract any longer than one year for less than $4M/yr. If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that eats up 2 or 3 of his UFA years (like Whitney's), the price is surely going to be in the $5M range. And that's today: if his form rounds out in the early part of this season (i.e. he takes that next step we've all been waiting for since at least the beginning of last season), the price goes up some more.

Take a look to your left, won't you? With a few estimates (and players not under contract in red), this is what the payroll for the 2008/09 Calgary Flames looks like in the event that (a) both Phaneuf and Kiprusoff are re-signed shortly, and (b) Langkow, Huselius, Conroy, and Yelle are replaced with "Brad Isbister" x4.

Yes, that total is $50M. I think the cap next season is going to be about $53M, so in other words in the event that you can sign Langkow (or his equivalent) to a $3.6Mx3yr contract -- which you probably can't -- you've hit it.

The best-case scenario here (or perhaps least disruptive is a better description) is roughly that Warrener leaves for prospects/picks, and Phaneuf & Kipper get squeezed even more than what I've shown. Then, instead of having $3M to replace the 4 forwards with upgrades from Brad Isbister, you have maybe $5.5M.

If Moss, Boyd, and Taratukhin all impress and perform this season, maybe that ain't so scary. But it still looks to me like the most likely eventuality is that Kipper is not re-signed (let's hope Irving has a hell of a year in the AHL).

The scenario that is still pretty remote, but much more likely than it was two weeks ago, is Phaneuf being dealt away in the manner of Havlat or Tanguay. This doesn't excite me at all, but when the numbers are right in front of you and the nearly unavoidable alternative is starting a goaltender in 2008 who is a career AHLer (Krahn/C-Mac), or a 2nd-year pro (Irving), or some proven mediocrity (say, Raycroft), it's a lot easier to swallow.