Friday, November 03, 2006
Friday Fun Stats
We all know the downside of using small statistical samples to draw conclusions. The upside of small sample size is that you can look at it in pretty gory detail. Did you know:
- The Flames have allowed 12 PPG against this season (actually 13, but I'm excluding the 5-on-3 by the Oil in G1). Robyn Regehr has been on the ice for 8 of them. Ouch. Lombardi/Amonte have been on for 5 (most by any forwards), but also been on for the Flames' 2 SH goals. The worst differential for any forward is Langkow, both raw and rate (4 PPGA, 0 SHGF).
- The Flames' best Fwd on the PK has been, no surprise, Stephane Yelle (0 GA). Next is, yes surprise, Jeff Friesen -- only 1 PPGA even though he has the 4th highest PK ice time for forwards. The D-man with the best PK success so far is actually Andrew Ference; Hamrlik and Zyuzin have slightly better differential rates, though, as they were on the ice for the SH goals.
- The Flames have a total of 19 "minus" events this season: 16 ESGA, 2 SHGA, and 1 EN-GA. Jarome Iginla is -2 despite having scored 9 ES points, which means that he was on the ice for at least 11 of those 19 GA. Same with Langkow; he has 5 ES points yet is -6. Both guys were on the ice for both SHGA and the empty-netter, but that still means their line was on for at least 8 of the 16 ESGA.
- The good at ES: Lombardi is +6 (not counting his +2 on the PK) and Kobasew is +4. I am but a lowly Unfrozen Caveman Hockey Fan, but that seems OK for invisible guys who need to work harder. As for ES scoring rates: Iginla is at 3.27ESP/60 (that rate would have been 4th in the league last season) and Lombardi is at 2.62ESP/60 (~50th). The news past that is brutal, except to say that it is inconceivable that Alex Tanguay will continue at this "pace".
- Powerplay: Lombardi and Kobasew are both above 6.0PPP/60, a level reached by only 18 forwards last season. That's good! Huselius is at 2.31PPP/60 and Iginla is at 2.05PPP/60. That's bad... Luc Robitaille was the only forward in the NHL last season who averaged 4mins/Gm on the PP and produced that poorly.
- Back to the brutal, a.k.a., This Can't Possibly Continue, Can It? Only 22 forwards in the NHL last season played at least 50 games and scored less than 1.0ESP/60. It's basically a Carnival of Brashears, Hollwegs, and Pecas. The Flames below that (cough) benchmark so far are: Tanguay (0.95), Huselius (0.93), Lundmark (0.88), Friesen (0.57), Amonte (0.00), Richie (0.00), McCarty (0.00)
# posted by Matt @ 1:51 pm 
Comments:
my god,
those are really insightful observations. and must be very frightening for you.
The Oilers have some pretty ugly warts themselves right now (Jason Smith -4, Tjarnquist -5).
But those are some pretty ugly bumps you've found.
I was just finished a post talking about ESP/60 as method of comparing Langkow and Lombardi myself, oddly.
Here's another fun stat...
Matt has posted three decent sized articles in the past 24 hours compared to one tiny little preview from Andy...
I think I must be in bizarro world or something...
But its a nice change (even though its mainly because our beloved Flames are shitting the proverbial bed)...
I read these posts a lot and i'm still stunned that 6PPP/60 is considered elite.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, that means if you threw the five best powerplay guys in the league out together for a powerplay that theoretically lasted the entire length of a game, they'd only score 6 goals all game?
I realize I'm making some fairly large leaps in that logic. But really -- only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?
I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.
I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.
60 minutes of continuous man advantage is a different animal than a series of 30 two-minute advantages occruing over sparodic periods.
only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?
Actually, five guys with 6 points each in 60 minutes would be a grand total of 30 points, meaning at least 10 goals in the 60.
(Notwithstanding metrognome's point about continuous vs. sporadic powerplays.)
Of course Regehr has played far and away the most PK minutes of any skating Flamer. Meanwhile Yelle is last in PK TOI among Calgary forwards that seem to play much on the PK. Regardless of the sample size, those are two important factors. Essentially I wouldn't worry much about Regehr on the PK and Yelle is not a PK panacea although the Flames would undoubtedly like to see him in more games. Is he now healthy or what?
par: Well handled on the PP rate question. PPP/hr vs. PPGF/hr was basically the issue there. Just as an example, the Oilers had 7.0 PPGF/hr and Ales Hemsky posted 8.5 PPGF/hr with 6.2 PPP/hr to lead the club last year. The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.
Metrognome: I hope to heck you didn't find much there. Langkow's at almost 2.1 ESP/hr and surely playing much more difficult opposition than Lombardi has been facing. I don't know that for sure, but judging by the stats, Langkow's track record as an ES player, and assuming that Playfair is mostly sane, I think that's a rational conclusion.
The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.
Isn't there an assumption there, that being that last year's performance will be the same as this year's? I mean, it may not be a major assumption, but it still is one, no? It' not automatic that anyone is going to have a good year, just because they had one the year before.
True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?
BTW, he's at 5.5 PPP/hr right now after starting off pretty crappy. IIRC, he had just one point in his first 34 minutes or so - he's already regressing to the mean. I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)
I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)
I wonder why? :)
True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?
I'd feel more comfortable if he was a 27 year old baseball player.
I agree that it is a safe bet, which is why I said it wasn't a major assumption. But he doesn't exactly have the pedigree yet, imo. Of course, i predicted the bugger would get 100 points, so clearly I'm just being contrarian for contrarians sake.
McLennan is in net, and all three of CBJ's goals have come on the PP. Regehr was on the ice for two of them.
Well whaddyaknow, now it's 3-2, the Flames have some life.
We learned some stuff tonight. We are almost exactly as good as Columbus. Which is a little disturbing.
We also learned that Tanguay and Huselius have to be promoted to our top three shootout guys. And Friesen must never be allowed to participate in a shootout again, even if it means Kipper has to take a shot.
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my god,
those are really insightful observations. and must be very frightening for you.
The Oilers have some pretty ugly warts themselves right now (Jason Smith -4, Tjarnquist -5).
But those are some pretty ugly bumps you've found.
I was just finished a post talking about ESP/60 as method of comparing Langkow and Lombardi myself, oddly.
Here's another fun stat...
Matt has posted three decent sized articles in the past 24 hours compared to one tiny little preview from Andy...
I think I must be in bizarro world or something...
But its a nice change (even though its mainly because our beloved Flames are shitting the proverbial bed)...
# posted by 
: November 03, 2006 2:22 pm
: November 03, 2006 2:22 pm I read these posts a lot and i'm still stunned that 6PPP/60 is considered elite.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, that means if you threw the five best powerplay guys in the league out together for a powerplay that theoretically lasted the entire length of a game, they'd only score 6 goals all game?
I realize I'm making some fairly large leaps in that logic. But really -- only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?
I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.
# posted by : November 03, 2006 2:56 pm
: November 03, 2006 2:56 pm I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.
60 minutes of continuous man advantage is a different animal than a series of 30 two-minute advantages occruing over sparodic periods.
only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?
Actually, five guys with 6 points each in 60 minutes would be a grand total of 30 points, meaning at least 10 goals in the 60.
(Notwithstanding metrognome's point about continuous vs. sporadic powerplays.)
# posted by : November 03, 2006 3:14 pm
: November 03, 2006 3:14 pm Of course Regehr has played far and away the most PK minutes of any skating Flamer. Meanwhile Yelle is last in PK TOI among Calgary forwards that seem to play much on the PK. Regardless of the sample size, those are two important factors. Essentially I wouldn't worry much about Regehr on the PK and Yelle is not a PK panacea although the Flames would undoubtedly like to see him in more games. Is he now healthy or what?
par: Well handled on the PP rate question. PPP/hr vs. PPGF/hr was basically the issue there. Just as an example, the Oilers had 7.0 PPGF/hr and Ales Hemsky posted 8.5 PPGF/hr with 6.2 PPP/hr to lead the club last year. The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.
Metrognome: I hope to heck you didn't find much there. Langkow's at almost 2.1 ESP/hr and surely playing much more difficult opposition than Lombardi has been facing. I don't know that for sure, but judging by the stats, Langkow's track record as an ES player, and assuming that Playfair is mostly sane, I think that's a rational conclusion.
The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.
Isn't there an assumption there, that being that last year's performance will be the same as this year's? I mean, it may not be a major assumption, but it still is one, no? It' not automatic that anyone is going to have a good year, just because they had one the year before.
True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?
BTW, he's at 5.5 PPP/hr right now after starting off pretty crappy. IIRC, he had just one point in his first 34 minutes or so - he's already regressing to the mean. I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)
I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)
I wonder why? :)
True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?
I'd feel more comfortable if he was a 27 year old baseball player.
I agree that it is a safe bet, which is why I said it wasn't a major assumption. But he doesn't exactly have the pedigree yet, imo. Of course, i predicted the bugger would get 100 points, so clearly I'm just being contrarian for contrarians sake.
McLennan is in net, and all three of CBJ's goals have come on the PP. Regehr was on the ice for two of them.
Well whaddyaknow, now it's 3-2, the Flames have some life.
We learned some stuff tonight. We are almost exactly as good as Columbus. Which is a little disturbing.
We also learned that Tanguay and Huselius have to be promoted to our top three shootout guys. And Friesen must never be allowed to participate in a shootout again, even if it means Kipper has to take a shot.
# posted by : November 04, 2006 7:38 am
: November 04, 2006 7:38 am Post a Comment
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