Friday, November 03, 2006

 

Friday Fun Stats

We all know the downside of using small statistical samples to draw conclusions. The upside of small sample size is that you can look at it in pretty gory detail. Did you know:
Go Flames. And if you hear someone suggest that Lombardi or Kobasew ought to be benched to send the team a message, please punch them in the face for me.

Comments:

Well, aren't we Mister prolific now?
 


my god,

those are really insightful observations. and must be very frightening for you.

The Oilers have some pretty ugly warts themselves right now (Jason Smith -4, Tjarnquist -5).

But those are some pretty ugly bumps you've found.
 


I was just finished a post talking about ESP/60 as method of comparing Langkow and Lombardi myself, oddly.
 


Here's another fun stat...

Matt has posted three decent sized articles in the past 24 hours compared to one tiny little preview from Andy...

I think I must be in bizarro world or something...

But its a nice change (even though its mainly because our beloved Flames are shitting the proverbial bed)...
 


But its a nice change

Agreed. I'm burnt out like a muthatf**ka.
 


I read these posts a lot and i'm still stunned that 6PPP/60 is considered elite.

Unless I'm reading this wrong, that means if you threw the five best powerplay guys in the league out together for a powerplay that theoretically lasted the entire length of a game, they'd only score 6 goals all game?

I realize I'm making some fairly large leaps in that logic. But really -- only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?

I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.
 


I'd imagine 6 average NHLers could manage to score 6 goals if given the man advanage for an entire game. Never mind the elite ones.

60 minutes of continuous man advantage is a different animal than a series of 30 two-minute advantages occruing over sparodic periods.
 


only 6 goals scored in a 60-minute powerplay?

Actually, five guys with 6 points each in 60 minutes would be a grand total of 30 points, meaning at least 10 goals in the 60.

(Notwithstanding metrognome's point about continuous vs. sporadic powerplays.)
 


Of course Regehr has played far and away the most PK minutes of any skating Flamer. Meanwhile Yelle is last in PK TOI among Calgary forwards that seem to play much on the PK. Regardless of the sample size, those are two important factors. Essentially I wouldn't worry much about Regehr on the PK and Yelle is not a PK panacea although the Flames would undoubtedly like to see him in more games. Is he now healthy or what?

par: Well handled on the PP rate question. PPP/hr vs. PPGF/hr was basically the issue there. Just as an example, the Oilers had 7.0 PPGF/hr and Ales Hemsky posted 8.5 PPGF/hr with 6.2 PPP/hr to lead the club last year. The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.

Metrognome: I hope to heck you didn't find much there. Langkow's at almost 2.1 ESP/hr and surely playing much more difficult opposition than Lombardi has been facing. I don't know that for sure, but judging by the stats, Langkow's track record as an ES player, and assuming that Playfair is mostly sane, I think that's a rational conclusion.
 


I got chills when he put the word "Peca" in plural like that.
 


The fact that he's still an Oiler is just one reason why Oiler fans should trust the PP a little more than they have lately.

Isn't there an assumption there, that being that last year's performance will be the same as this year's? I mean, it may not be a major assumption, but it still is one, no? It' not automatic that anyone is going to have a good year, just because they had one the year before.
 


True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?

BTW, he's at 5.5 PPP/hr right now after starting off pretty crappy. IIRC, he had just one point in his first 34 minutes or so - he's already regressing to the mean. I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)
 


I'll check his PPGF/hr at some point as I'm now keeping track of the Oilers total PP icetime. Maybe I'll even post it at my blog. ;)

I wonder why? :)

True, but Ales Hemsky is just 23 years old. He's still at the low end of the development curve so it would be difficult to bet against him, don't you think?

I'd feel more comfortable if he was a 27 year old baseball player.

I agree that it is a safe bet, which is why I said it wasn't a major assumption. But he doesn't exactly have the pedigree yet, imo. Of course, i predicted the bugger would get 100 points, so clearly I'm just being contrarian for contrarians sake.
 


3-1 Columbus already? Sweet Jesus. Looks like the Kipper well has run dry.
 


McLennan is in net, and all three of CBJ's goals have come on the PP. Regehr was on the ice for two of them.

Well whaddyaknow, now it's 3-2, the Flames have some life.
 


3-3 now.
 


GWG: Manny Maholtra. Ouch.
 


We learned some stuff tonight. We are almost exactly as good as Columbus. Which is a little disturbing.

We also learned that Tanguay and Huselius have to be promoted to our top three shootout guys. And Friesen must never be allowed to participate in a shootout again, even if it means Kipper has to take a shot.
 

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