Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Stretch Drive (South)
Yesterday Sacamano took a look at the Oilers' prospects over the final 30 games of the season. 96 points should indeed be good for at least the 8th playoff spot.
For the Flames to qualify for the playoffs, then, they need 30 points over their final 30 games. That should be doable: presently 23 of the 30 teams in the league are gaining a point per game on average.
What about 1st place in the Northwest? I'm going to guess 105 will do it. The actual number may be a little higher or (more likely) lower, but I'm pretty sure if any NW team earns 105 points, they're going to win the division. That means the Flames need 39 points over their final 30 games (something like an 18-9-3 record). That's right about the pace they're on now. Can they keep it up?
March Road Trip: a ridiculous tour through the Central timezone where the Flames play the 7th and final game of the trip on the afternoon of Day 11. (Note that would have been left unsaid a week ago: we should probably have a backup goalie we're happy with for that.)
The next 5 games before the Olympic break. Four home games (CBJ, VAN, ANA, STL) and one roadie (SJS). 7 or 8 points in these games will cushion the NW lead, and make the post-Olympic schedule (which I should note is brutal for all teams) seem a lot less daunting.
For the Flames to qualify for the playoffs, then, they need 30 points over their final 30 games. That should be doable: presently 23 of the 30 teams in the league are gaining a point per game on average.
What about 1st place in the Northwest? I'm going to guess 105 will do it. The actual number may be a little higher or (more likely) lower, but I'm pretty sure if any NW team earns 105 points, they're going to win the division. That means the Flames need 39 points over their final 30 games (something like an 18-9-3 record). That's right about the pace they're on now. Can they keep it up?
- 17 of 30 are at home: that's definitely good considering their 18-4-2 home record right now.
- 5 back-to-backs: that's bad. The first is a home-and-home with Colorado, so no disadvantage there, but the other four end with a team coming off of 1, 2, or even 4 days rest.
- Strength of opponents: 14 of 30 are against non-playoff teams in today's standings, 16 against playoff teams, so it's pretty representative of the schedule as a whole. 12 games are against the NW division: based on the season to date, that's a big plus
March Road Trip: a ridiculous tour through the Central timezone where the Flames play the 7th and final game of the trip on the afternoon of Day 11. (Note that would have been left unsaid a week ago: we should probably have a backup goalie we're happy with for that.)
The next 5 games before the Olympic break. Four home games (CBJ, VAN, ANA, STL) and one roadie (SJS). 7 or 8 points in these games will cushion the NW lead, and make the post-Olympic schedule (which I should note is brutal for all teams) seem a lot less daunting.
# posted by Matt @ 1:13 pm 
Comments:
My predicted NW order of finish:
Flames
Oilers
Avs
Canucks
Wild
Depending on what Lowe does with the goalie situation anyway.
Speaking of which (and yes, I am trying to derail a Flames oriented post with more discussion on the Oilers and their goaltending saga) Lalime is on re-entry waivers.
Half price means if anyone picks him up their paying about half a mill for his services for the rest of the season.
Look, coming over here from the Battle of Ontario, you don't want Lalime. You just don't. He'll lure you in by looking competent, maybe win a few games etc.
But as soon as he lets in one 25-foot goal in the playoffs, that's it, his season is over. The Leafs kept doing it to him-- a shot from the faceoff circle would go in, and Lalime wouldn't win another game.
Though, if he's to be a backup, that might not be the crippling problem it was in Ottawa.
Wait, run that part about "looking competent" and "winning a few games" by me again?
Post a Comment
<< Home
My predicted NW order of finish:
Flames
Oilers
Avs
Canucks
Wild
Depending on what Lowe does with the goalie situation anyway.
Speaking of which (and yes, I am trying to derail a Flames oriented post with more discussion on the Oilers and their goaltending saga) Lalime is on re-entry waivers.
Half price means if anyone picks him up their paying about half a mill for his services for the rest of the season.
# posted by 
: January 31, 2006 2:14 pm
: January 31, 2006 2:14 pm Look, coming over here from the Battle of Ontario, you don't want Lalime. You just don't. He'll lure you in by looking competent, maybe win a few games etc.
But as soon as he lets in one 25-foot goal in the playoffs, that's it, his season is over. The Leafs kept doing it to him-- a shot from the faceoff circle would go in, and Lalime wouldn't win another game.
Though, if he's to be a backup, that might not be the crippling problem it was in Ottawa.
# posted by : February 01, 2006 2:30 am
: February 01, 2006 2:30 am Wait, run that part about "looking competent" and "winning a few games" by me again?
# posted by : February 01, 2006 4:10 am
: February 01, 2006 4:10 am Post a Comment
<< Home
