Wednesday, November 23, 2005

 

Satistics

Inspired by this post by Cosh, I've been following the league in terms of Goal Differential as well as the other usual measures of success.

It shows, similiar to Benjamin's observation yesterday, that the East and West are playing different games.

Only five teams in the East have a postitive defensive goal differential - and one of them is in last place!

In the West, on the other hand, only five teams don't have a positive defensive goal differential - including, alas, Edmonton.

The offensive goal differential numbers are similar only the other way around.

One thing that really sticks out, though, is that Calgary is one of only two teams in a playoff spot with a negative total goal differential. In fact, there are 6 Western teams below Calgary with a positive goal differential.

There are, of course, lots of other interesting things you can identify. Like, for example, the fact that Pittsburgh actually has a positive offensive GD. If they ever got a goaltender/defence they might actually be a good team. Nashville and Minnie, in contrast, have the best DGD in the West but are simply atrocious at scoring goals. Ottawa, for all the talk of their goal scoring, is actually doing better on the defensive end of the ice than the offensive end. Doug MacLean is the luckiest GM alive, because he still has his job despite the fact that his team can't do anything well. Etc.

I don't know how well this table will render on other computers - my html skills are limited at best, and it is just a cut 'n' paste from a larger hotlinked excel table on my desktop.








Eastern Conference
%/PA W% Goal Diff. GD Off. GD Def. GF/ Game GA/ Game RK
0.842 0.842 49 22.87 26.13 4.74 2.16 1 OTTAWA*
0.646 0.583 17 9.87 7.13 3.21 2.50 2 NY RANGERS*
0.690 0.667 12 7.87 4.13 3.57 3.00 3 CAROLINA*
0.705 0.636 2 0.87 1.13 3.09 3.00 4 MONTREAL
0.675 0.600 14 17.87 -3.87 4.25 3.55 5 PHILADELPHIA
0.619 0.571 7 10.87 -3.87 3.71 3.38 6 TORONTO
0.543 0.478 4 4.87 -0.87 3.13 2.96 7 TAMPA BAY
0.548 0.524 -2 2.87 -4.87 3.33 3.43 8 BUFFALO
#DIV/0!


#DIV/0!


0


-67.13


67.13


#DIV/0!


#DIV/0!








0.524 0.524 -5 -0.13 -4.87 3.19 3.43 9 NY ISLANDERS
0.500 0.450 -11 -6.13 -4.87 3.05 3.60 10 NEW JERSEY
0.455 0.318 -25 0.87 -25.87 3.09 4.23 11 PITTSBURGH
0.432 0.318 -10 1.87 -11.87 3.14 3.59 12 BOSTON
0.429 0.381 -5 5.87 -10.87 3.48 3.71 13 ATLANTA
0.381 0.381 -29 -6.13 -22.87 2.90 4.29 14 WASHINGTON
0.381 0.286 -17 -20.13 3.13 2.24 3.05 15 FLORIDA
















Western Conference
%/PA W% Goal Diff. GD Off. GD Def. GF/ Game GA/ Game RK
0.727 0.682 26 12.87 13.13 3.64 2.45 1 DETROIT*
0.705 0.682 22 17.87 4.13 3.86 2.86 2 LOS ANGELES*
0.682 0.636 11 5.87 5.13 3.32 2.82 3 VANCOUVER*
0.609 0.565 -1 -8.13 7.13 2.57 2.61 4 CALGARY
0.750 0.667 5 -13.13 18.13 3.00 2.72 5 NASHVILLE
0.675 0.650 11 4.87 6.13 3.60 3.05 6 DALLAS
0.595 0.524 13 13.87 -0.87 3.86 3.24 7 COLORADO
0.543 0.522 2 3.87 -1.87 3.09 3.00 8 EDMONTON
#DIV/0!


#DIV/0!


0


-67.13


67.13


#DIV/0!


#DIV/0!








0.500 0.458 4 -2.13 6.13 2.71 2.54 9 PHOENIX
0.500 0.450 7 -13.13 20.13 2.70 2.35 10 MINNESOTA
0.500 0.400 -14 -15.13 1.13 2.60 3.30 11 SAN JOSE
0.455 0.364 -5 -10.13 5.13 2.59 2.82 12 ANAHEIM
0.429 0.429 -17 -7.13 -9.87 2.86 3.67 13 CHICAGO
0.275 0.200 -28 -15.13 -12.87 2.60 4.00 14 ST LOUIS
0.238 0.238 -37 -29.13 -7.87 1.81 3.57 15 COLUMBUS

Comments:

I had forgotten about that post, though I still track those numbers. Gotta love the last bit (Tampa? Forget about Tampa in the '04 playoffs! Not gonna happen).

Right now, for this season, the (R-squared) correlation between goal differentials and the standings is 74%, which not surprisingly is a much reduced figure. I don't see it getting back up to 90%, although if shootout results are random over the course of the season the figure will improve. That's probably the most important immediate object of study for the stat-minded right there; figuring out whether winning those extra points in the shootout is a repeatable skill. (My suspicion is that it is, which would add a fifth component to the analysis.)
 


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