Wednesday, November 23, 2005
Satistics
Inspired by this post by Cosh, I've been following the league in terms of Goal Differential as well as the other usual measures of success.
It shows, similiar to Benjamin's observation yesterday, that the East and West are playing different games.
Only five teams in the East have a postitive defensive goal differential - and one of them is in last place!
In the West, on the other hand, only five teams don't have a positive defensive goal differential - including, alas, Edmonton.
The offensive goal differential numbers are similar only the other way around.
One thing that really sticks out, though, is that Calgary is one of only two teams in a playoff spot with a negative total goal differential. In fact, there are 6 Western teams below Calgary with a positive goal differential.
There are, of course, lots of other interesting things you can identify. Like, for example, the fact that Pittsburgh actually has a positive offensive GD. If they ever got a goaltender/defence they might actually be a good team. Nashville and Minnie, in contrast, have the best DGD in the West but are simply atrocious at scoring goals. Ottawa, for all the talk of their goal scoring, is actually doing better on the defensive end of the ice than the offensive end. Doug MacLean is the luckiest GM alive, because he still has his job despite the fact that his team can't do anything well. Etc.
I don't know how well this table will render on other computers - my html skills are limited at best, and it is just a cut 'n' paste from a larger hotlinked excel table on my desktop.
It shows, similiar to Benjamin's observation yesterday, that the East and West are playing different games.
Only five teams in the East have a postitive defensive goal differential - and one of them is in last place!
In the West, on the other hand, only five teams don't have a positive defensive goal differential - including, alas, Edmonton.
The offensive goal differential numbers are similar only the other way around.
One thing that really sticks out, though, is that Calgary is one of only two teams in a playoff spot with a negative total goal differential. In fact, there are 6 Western teams below Calgary with a positive goal differential.
There are, of course, lots of other interesting things you can identify. Like, for example, the fact that Pittsburgh actually has a positive offensive GD. If they ever got a goaltender/defence they might actually be a good team. Nashville and Minnie, in contrast, have the best DGD in the West but are simply atrocious at scoring goals. Ottawa, for all the talk of their goal scoring, is actually doing better on the defensive end of the ice than the offensive end. Doug MacLean is the luckiest GM alive, because he still has his job despite the fact that his team can't do anything well. Etc.
I don't know how well this table will render on other computers - my html skills are limited at best, and it is just a cut 'n' paste from a larger hotlinked excel table on my desktop.
| | | Eastern Conference | ||||||
| %/PA | W% | Goal Diff. | GD Off. | GD Def. | GF/ Game | GA/ Game | RK | |
| 0.842 | 0.842 | 49 | 22.87 | 26.13 | 4.74 | 2.16 | 1 | OTTAWA* |
| 0.646 | 0.583 | 17 | 9.87 | 7.13 | 3.21 | 2.50 | 2 | NY RANGERS* |
| 0.690 | 0.667 | 12 | 7.87 | 4.13 | 3.57 | 3.00 | 3 | CAROLINA* |
| 0.705 | 0.636 | 2 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 3.09 | 3.00 | 4 | MONTREAL |
| 0.675 | 0.600 | 14 | 17.87 | -3.87 | 4.25 | 3.55 | 5 | PHILADELPHIA |
| 0.619 | 0.571 | 7 | 10.87 | -3.87 | 3.71 | 3.38 | 6 | TORONTO |
| 0.543 | 0.478 | 4 | 4.87 | -0.87 | 3.13 | 2.96 | 7 | TAMPA BAY |
| 0.548 | 0.524 | -2 | 2.87 | -4.87 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 8 | BUFFALO |
| 0.524 | 0.524 | -5 | -0.13 | -4.87 | 3.19 | 3.43 | 9 | NY ISLANDERS |
| 0.500 | 0.450 | -11 | -6.13 | -4.87 | 3.05 | 3.60 | 10 | NEW JERSEY |
| 0.455 | 0.318 | -25 | 0.87 | -25.87 | 3.09 | 4.23 | 11 | PITTSBURGH |
| 0.432 | 0.318 | -10 | 1.87 | -11.87 | 3.14 | 3.59 | 12 | BOSTON |
| 0.429 | 0.381 | -5 | 5.87 | -10.87 | 3.48 | 3.71 | 13 | ATLANTA |
| 0.381 | 0.381 | -29 | -6.13 | -22.87 | 2.90 | 4.29 | 14 | WASHINGTON |
| 0.381 | 0.286 | -17 | -20.13 | 3.13 | 2.24 | 3.05 | 15 | FLORIDA |
| | | Western Conference | ||||||
| %/PA | W% | Goal Diff. | GD Off. | GD Def. | GF/ Game | GA/ Game | RK | |
| 0.727 | 0.682 | 26 | 12.87 | 13.13 | 3.64 | 2.45 | 1 | DETROIT* |
| 0.705 | 0.682 | 22 | 17.87 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 2.86 | 2 | LOS ANGELES* |
| 0.682 | 0.636 | 11 | 5.87 | 5.13 | 3.32 | 2.82 | 3 | VANCOUVER* |
| 0.609 | 0.565 | -1 | -8.13 | 7.13 | 2.57 | 2.61 | 4 | CALGARY |
| 0.750 | 0.667 | 5 | -13.13 | 18.13 | 3.00 | 2.72 | 5 | NASHVILLE |
| 0.675 | 0.650 | 11 | 4.87 | 6.13 | 3.60 | 3.05 | 6 | DALLAS |
| 0.595 | 0.524 | 13 | 13.87 | -0.87 | 3.86 | 3.24 | 7 | COLORADO |
| 0.543 | 0.522 | 2 | 3.87 | -1.87 | 3.09 | 3.00 | 8 | EDMONTON |
| 0.500 | 0.458 | 4 | -2.13 | 6.13 | 2.71 | 2.54 | 9 | PHOENIX |
| 0.500 | 0.450 | 7 | -13.13 | 20.13 | 2.70 | 2.35 | 10 | MINNESOTA |
| 0.500 | 0.400 | -14 | -15.13 | 1.13 | 2.60 | 3.30 | 11 | SAN JOSE |
| 0.455 | 0.364 | -5 | -10.13 | 5.13 | 2.59 | 2.82 | 12 | ANAHEIM |
| 0.429 | 0.429 | -17 | -7.13 | -9.87 | 2.86 | 3.67 | 13 | CHICAGO |
| 0.275 | 0.200 | -28 | -15.13 | -12.87 | 2.60 | 4.00 | 14 | ST LOUIS |
| 0.238 | 0.238 | -37 | -29.13 | -7.87 | 1.81 | 3.57 | 15 | COLUMBUS |
# posted by sacamano @ 11:23 am 
Comments:
I had forgotten about that post, though I still track those numbers. Gotta love the last bit (Tampa? Forget about Tampa in the '04 playoffs! Not gonna happen).
Right now, for this season, the (R-squared) correlation between goal differentials and the standings is 74%, which not surprisingly is a much reduced figure. I don't see it getting back up to 90%, although if shootout results are random over the course of the season the figure will improve. That's probably the most important immediate object of study for the stat-minded right there; figuring out whether winning those extra points in the shootout is a repeatable skill. (My suspicion is that it is, which would add a fifth component to the analysis.)
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I had forgotten about that post, though I still track those numbers. Gotta love the last bit (Tampa? Forget about Tampa in the '04 playoffs! Not gonna happen).
Right now, for this season, the (R-squared) correlation between goal differentials and the standings is 74%, which not surprisingly is a much reduced figure. I don't see it getting back up to 90%, although if shootout results are random over the course of the season the figure will improve. That's probably the most important immediate object of study for the stat-minded right there; figuring out whether winning those extra points in the shootout is a repeatable skill. (My suspicion is that it is, which would add a fifth component to the analysis.)
# posted by 
: November 23, 2005 4:59 pm
: November 23, 2005 4:59 pm 专业的翻译公司，译佰深圳翻译公司，广州翻译公司，上海翻译公司,东莞翻译公司国内同声翻译（广州同声传译）领域领头军！同声传译(同传)是国际会议通常使用的翻译方式， 翻译人员进入隔音间里，通过耳机接听发言人的声音再将其翻译给听众。这种形式的翻译方式需要较为复杂的设备以及非常专业的翻译人员，但能节省大量的时间。优质翻译公司译佰翻译公司能提供同传深圳英语翻译 ，深圳日语翻译，深圳法语翻译，深圳德语翻译，深圳俄语翻译，深圳韩语翻译等数种同传语言，培养一批商务口译人员，多年以来，译佰同声翻译在同声传译(同传)领域积累了丰富的业务经验，能提供从专业同声翻译、译员培训到同传设备安装租售业务等一整套国际会议同传服务，深圳翻译。
# posted by : August 01, 2008 12:14 am
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# posted by : November 16, 2008 5:48 pm
: November 16, 2008 5:48 pm Post a Comment
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