Time for a more balanced trade review, certainly. Yes, the figures I posted yesterday lack context. The underlying numbers showing Lombardi as a superior EV player to Jokinen are heavily influenced by the quality of their teams and teammates. I certainly don't think Curtis Glencross is a better player than Shane Doan, but the same comparison (in the same categories) would give a distinct advantage to the Flame.

Let's start with the things that we know, or thereabouts:

• Jokinen is a much better goal scorer (38, 39, 34, 21 since the lockout) than Lombardi (6, 20, 14, 9)
• Jokinen is a much better PP guy; he's solid, whereas Lombardi has always been abysmal
• Lombardi is an excellent PK guy who will have to be replaced internally
• Lombardi has become a good 2-way centre, enough so that his contract was very favourable
• Sutter's flexibility in June/July has been significantly reduced. If Jokinen is outstanding, we won't care; if he's not, then [Lombardi + 1st round pick + $3.4M cap space] will look awfully attractive in the rearview

Reasons for optimism:

• He could absolutely fill the net up. In the 3 post-lockout seasons, Jokinen is T-10th in goals (111) and 2nd in Shots on Goal. This suggests to me that his scoring isn't dependent on his aim being hot, or what have you; it arises from sheer volume of shots and chances created (which is less variable on a week-to-week basis). Put another way, there are 15 guys who scored 100+ goals in those three seasons, and Olli's Shoot% ranked 15th among them. Going forward, that's basically a good thing.
• It's possible that, on a better (playoff-bound) team with better teammates, his enthusiasm, energy, & effort will be better shift-to-shift, and his results will improve accordingly.
• Cammalleri-Jokinen-Iginla, followed by Langkow + 2 of Bourque/Moss/Bertuzzi, might be the Top 6 that the coach has been dreaming of. I fully expect Keenan to run the first trio against the other guy's 2nd/3rd lines and have Langkow taking on the toughs. And particularly if Bourque and Moss are the "+2", I think there's a great chance that it works.

As far as I'm concerned, Langkow is still the #1 centre on this team (certainly 5v5). The problem, such as it is, has always been that Iginla with Conroy or Lombo has never reliably been able to punish lesser competition -- but if you put Langkow with Iginla, then the leftover line can't win because they don't quite have the scoring, and they're just not good enough.

Reasons for concern:

**Jokinen hasn't been that productive this season. Maybe it's just one of those things (never fit in with his new team, cold streak, who knows). But it's possible that:

(1) He's past his prime. There's no magic age when a hockey player starts to get old. His Shots/Game rate is down by 29% this season, despite identical PP time to last season and only a bit less EV time. He might just be wearing down.

(2) The Western Conference and the Southeast Division are, in a sense, different leagues. There aren't many happy endings when it comes to players moving from the SE to the West. Brad Richards has maintained the post-contract scoring he had in Tampa since moving to the Stars (though hasn't regained the pre-contract numbers). Marian Hossa's points/gm are down a hair from his Atlanta years, though no one cares because he's still excellent. And those are the success stories. Jokinen, Cole, not so much.

Then there's the guys who looked like they might just be out of a career, only to move from West to SE and suddenly look pretty good again, like Reasoner and Samsonov (the opposite happened to Gelinas).

The point I'm getting at here (apart from Enjoy Justin Williams, Los Angeles!) is that some of Jokinen's drop this season was to be expected, and that to some extent it's the Phoenix numbers that are the real ones, at least in the sense of what we can expect from him as a Flame.

**Even going back to last season, Jokinen has been a minus player with pretty mediocre 5v5 offense. Some of this is team effect, but a good player on a bad team is still a good player (for a good example, see Tuesday's post). For him to be a real help, Jokinen will have to be an asset at EV, even against good lines -- not a quasi-liability that needs shelter to be effective, or an outright liability like Bertuzzi.

**This isn't a concern so much as a note: while I'm the last person to worry about faceoffs as a key, Jokinen is awful at them. 42.2%, good for 85th/87 among NHLers with enough attempts. The odds are that the Flames have a new top-line centre who won't take faceoffs, as Iginla will take them on the right side and Cammy will take them on the left.


I think it's quite likely that the Flames are a better team today than they were Tuesday (acquiring Leopold added quality, not merely depth, on the D). I think they have a better chance of winning their 1st-round series, and a better chance of a deep run (I take TB's point but don't really agree with it).

That said, I wonder if it won't get a bit ugly here for a while, if not now then shortly. The combination of (A) the injuries, (B) the next 6 on the road, and (C) the fact that the PK was due for a bit of a dive even with Lombardi, makes for some potentially tough times. The sooner that Langkow and Bourque are well the better. Go Flames.