Thursday, January 22, 2009


Friday Baseball Standings: All-Star break edition

I know I keep droning on about this, but the contrast in distribution between the two conferences is fascinating. 15th-place St. Louis is closer to a playoff than the 11th-place team(s) in the East. And not only that, there are more teams right above the line to catch (i.e. if Blues fan has her hopes pinned on a huge run, there are 4 teams who could conceivably falter enough to be caught, not just 2). Although the flip side of that is that there's a lot more teams to pass on the way up to 8th, and they play a lot of games against each other.

And sure enough: this reputable-looking playoff odds calculator says that the Blues still have a 7% chance of qualifying, while the Leafs only have a 4% chance and the other EC bottom 5 are all 2% or less.

More info from that site: the Flames have a 78% chance of winning the NW Division (67% of being the 3-seed), a 20% chance of qualifying in the 4-8 seed, and a 2% chance of missing altogether. The Oilers have a 66% chance of qualifying (10% as the NW winner).

Enjoy the break, folks. Go Flames.


All-star game prediction: East over West 4-1, Carey Price with the hat trick.

Statistically, the odds in that chart imply a 13.4% chance of a first-round Battle of Alberta and about a 9.9% chance of it happening specifically through a Calgary-3 Edmonton-6 finish. That's on the (false) assumption that their positions in the standings are totally independent insofar as they must not be equivalent.

I realy like the baseball style rankings. Much better than the official NHL version. But what I think Would be even better is a simple points per game ranking. I think this would better reflect a realistic finish point. Lets face it, most teams get more that 1 point per game. The baseball system awardes 1 point per game at hand, but with many games awarding 3 points (with the looser point), 1 point is usualy not sufficient. The points per game also corrects for how well the team is playing.

Alternatly, you could award points for games at had based on points per game in the last 10 games (or 15 or 20 etc).

I did a spredsheet using the point per game in the last 10 games. The only difference form you sheet is the Preds are now at the bottom, and Edmonton is 1 point up of Phenix.

OK, I did the points per game in the last 10 games calculated out to the end of the season. Here is how it looks

San Jose Sharks---------131.5
Detroit Red Wings-------125
Calgary Flames----------113.2
Edmonton Oilers---------104.2
Chicago Blackhawks------100.9
Phoenix Coyotes---------96.2
Dallas Stars------------93.8
Minnesota Wild----------90.8

Columbus Blue Jackets---89.7
St Louis Blues----------83.8
Vancouver Canucks-------79.8
Los Angeles Kings-------79.2
Anaheim Ducks-----------79
Colorado Avalanche------76.6
Nashville Predators-----65.8

Of course, that site doesn't seem to factor in the odds that Calgary's goaltender is the Finnish Tommy Salo and that therefore January and February is going to be a nightmare of shattered dreams and crushed spirits for your average Flames fan.

Just sayin'.

Hey Matt, have you seen any of the DVD series of the 10 greatest flames games? Every where I go I see the Oilers and the Habs ones, but the flames alway seem to be sold out(for good reason). If you you could please let the flames faithful know where we could purchase them, we would appreciate it.

thanks Flames fan forever!

There's a Flames one? This would be the first I'd heard of it.

Gee, I wonder if the Steve Smith game will be on it. It seems to be the only Flames-positive BoA moment they ever show at the Saddledome when I'm there.

Another Pair of Playoff predictors:
Sports Club Stats

The playoff odds squares with my own thinking. Oilers make the playoffs and quickly exit in the first round.

I call it the "Flames Stanley Cup"


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