Thursday, November 27, 2008


Flames Game Night

The Flames play the Canucks tonight at "Business as Usual" Place (8PM MT, RSN West), aka The Carhole. Excited is probably the wrong word, but I'm really looking forward to this game. Vancouver is 10-1-2 in their last 13, and I want to see how they're doing it, because some of the numbers imply, "With Mirrors".

This link is for EV shots data during that 13-game awesome streak. There's a few things of interest there, but the wood is the team totals at the bottom: 24GF/7GA despite being outshot, and an EV SV% of 0.974. That's insanely lucky but also fantastic; a crappy or mediocre defensive team does not and cannot have a 13-game stretch like that.

Also, from the Kesler for Selke (Selke for Kesler?) File: check out the faceoff numbers for that same stretch. The Canucks have skated out for 42 more D-zone faceoffs (EV) than O-zone; note the numbers for #10 Johnson, #17 Kesler, and #42 Wellwood in particular.

Kesler is 46 (def minus off faceoffs), Johnson is 32, and Wellwood is -10 (i.e. 10 more off than def FOs). Now go back to the first link, the EV/Corsi data.

Next to #10 Johnson, you see what happens to an averagish player when he's always starting in his own end. This is painful 'Stoll in 07/08' territory.

Next to #42 Wellwood, you see ~ a wash: right about even in Shots, F#, and Corsi#.

And next to #17 Kesler, you see... numbers just like Wellwood's and not at all like Johnson's. And don't forget that Kesler is generally playing against better players than either of those guys, too. It's extremely impressive. By the way, anyone want to bet against Wellwood's work ethic suddenly becoming an issue again once that Shooting% drops back below Mario in '92 territory?

I have a strange feeling that tonight, Kipper and Sanford are going to take turns trying to give the game away -- something like the Oilers/Canucks game in '05/06 where Conky cleared the puck off of Morrison's balls and it rebounded straight back and behind him.

Calgary 6 (Iginla x2, Moss x2, Prust, Phaneuf)
Vancouver 5 (Kesler, Sami Salo, and whichever Sedin is the scoring one (not the passing one) with the hat trick)

Go Flames.


Interesting post. While he was in, Luongo was unbelievable during this stretch. Here's where one could use a divvying up the shots by area of the ice, or by succession. Just by eye, the Canucks seem to give up the first shot, but are good at puck support from then on.

But another thing that seems to be going for them, is the Kesler line with Hansen and Burrows. They are all great defensive player (starting with Kesler of course), and have good chemistry. I'm no master of the statistics sites, but here's my two cents:

All three are in top 25-ish in quality of competition, for forwards who've played 10 games and play at least 10 min, and all three are scoring at 2+ Pt/60, and all three are plus players overall. I don't think that there's another line in the NHL quite like them.

Calamari with the hattrick, yergh.

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