Friday, September 26, 2008
Wells's Second Rule
I swore off politics a few years ago, but I still read a limited selection of blogs about it, just to keep a very rough handle on what I'm "missing". One of those is Inkless Wells, Paul Wells' (mostly) political meanderings at macleans.ca.
Wells's Second Rule of Politics holds that if everyone in Ottawa knows something, it isn't true. His brevity oversimplifies his concept only slightly: it's not intended to apply to the way things exist today, based on plenty of evidence (e.g. the earth is round, the Red Wings are excellent), but rather the conventional wisdom about things that are going to happen, and why.
Anyway, I think this notion is applicable well beyond politics. You'll certainly notice that in NHL season previews, there is a rather astounding level of unanimity amongst the pundits (dead-tree, tee-vee, and interweb alike) on virtually all topics. Which teams are likely to be better, and worse; which teams are poised to breakout, and which are due to fall back; which were the best free-agent signings, and the worst; etc.
So: where do you think Wells's Second Rule applies in the realm of NHL hockey? Here's your chance to look really smart in three or six or eight months. My contribution:
Absolutely every take on the NW Division I have heard or read in the past two months has been a narrow variation on this: it'll be noticeably weaker as a whole, but just as competitive. I don't buy it. There are too many reasons why all five teams should still be really quite good. Beyond that, I think this is the year that one team separates from the pack early-ish, and then stretches out their lead all season and plays around in the Wings' neighbourhood.
Floor's open.
Wells's Second Rule of Politics holds that if everyone in Ottawa knows something, it isn't true. His brevity oversimplifies his concept only slightly: it's not intended to apply to the way things exist today, based on plenty of evidence (e.g. the earth is round, the Red Wings are excellent), but rather the conventional wisdom about things that are going to happen, and why.
Anyway, I think this notion is applicable well beyond politics. You'll certainly notice that in NHL season previews, there is a rather astounding level of unanimity amongst the pundits (dead-tree, tee-vee, and interweb alike) on virtually all topics. Which teams are likely to be better, and worse; which teams are poised to breakout, and which are due to fall back; which were the best free-agent signings, and the worst; etc.
So: where do you think Wells's Second Rule applies in the realm of NHL hockey? Here's your chance to look really smart in three or six or eight months. My contribution:
Absolutely every take on the NW Division I have heard or read in the past two months has been a narrow variation on this: it'll be noticeably weaker as a whole, but just as competitive. I don't buy it. There are too many reasons why all five teams should still be really quite good. Beyond that, I think this is the year that one team separates from the pack early-ish, and then stretches out their lead all season and plays around in the Wings' neighbourhood.
Floor's open.
# posted by Matt @ 11:48 am 
Comments:
Beyond that, I think this is the year that one team separates from the pack early-ish, and then stretches out their lead all season and plays around in the Wings' neighbourhood.
Which team?
The main problem I have with most of the hockey predictions is that, generally, people focus on the players moving in and out, but IMO mostly assume that the players remaining will perform more or less the same as the year previous.
ie. For the Oilers, people will look at the roster and say "Cole, Visnovsky, Strudwick in, Stoll, Torres and Greene out" and base their opinion on how the team will do going forward on those changes, while (if not outright ignoring) minimizing the impact of change within the far more important performance of the remaining 18 players still on the roster for last year.
while (if not outright ignoring) minimizing the impact of change within the far more important performance of the remaining 18 players still on the roster for last year.
Agreed. I know I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude with Garon, Grebeshkov, Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson and Brodziak. Garon in particular scares the crap out of me.
I am confident that Cole will impress, however. I watched him tons in Carolina, and the guy is the real deal. This town is going to go bonkers for him.
The only team that I see taking a step back is the Oilers, and that's just because they were lucky as all get out last year.
The conventional wisdom seems to be that Calgary is winning the division, but I find this completely baffling, considering I'm almost certain they got worse over the summer, not better. In fact, everyone but Edmonton got definitively worse this summer, at least as far as I can tell. Am I missing something, here?
If I had to pick a team honestly, I'd go with the Wild. They once again have a solid pair of goaltenders, a stable game plan, and a legitimate star in Gaborik.
Certainly, it won't be Colorado or Vancouver. Colorado will get killed in the net this year, regardless of their performance everywhere else. Vancouver has a stellar goalie, but he's been stellar before, and it's just not enough to make up for the rest of the team.
Calgary and Edmonton have too many unknowns, and are too close to home for me to judge. If Vezina Kipper is back, however, watch out.
Am I missing something, here?
Nobody ever believes in the Wild, because no one really understands why they're successful (me included, although Gaborik >> Kovalchuk is a good start).
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/4/
I feel very similarly on politics, but I too read Wells because I like to know what's going on and he's not shy about ripping any of the parties. Even when I disagree with him I appreciate his arguments.
As to hockey- Columbus is going to be way better than people expect this year. Also- Tampa Bay will not make the playoffs.
Finally: At least half of Mike Brophy's THN predictions are going to be out.
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/
I'd say the last one is right, and the 2nd one might be. Other than that, no.
The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling.
Matt has to be thinking that the Oilers are the breakaway team, right? He'd just tell us otherwise.
On a serious note, Gaborik's fun to watch but would you really trade Horcoff straight-up for for him?
"The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling."
That I don't get. Just 'cause he isn't doing what he was supposed to or what he was paid to doesn't mean he is not an extremely useful player.
I'll miss him.
The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling.
Unfortunate (and of course moot at this point), but not baffling. Comes down to 4 numbers: 18-40-58, and $5250000. The default assumption that people whose names are pronounced with an accent don't have intangibles probably didn't help either.
Matt has to be thinking that the Oilers are the breakaway team, right? He'd just tell us otherwise.
Nah, I really don't know, but I'm pretty sure it's not the Oil. I'd guess the Wild or Flames, though if the Canucks get one more good NHL forward it might be them. Or if the Avs get Conklinesque goaltending (Pittsburgh edition) and have as good a PP as they ought to given their top end forwards, it could be them.
And though Horcoff is widely underappreciated (present company excepted), Gaborik is one guy you would absolutely trade him for. Contract situations notwithstanding.
I have a feeling that the Avalanche are going to shock people.
They get no love, probably because they put Raycroft on their roster. I don't think the long term plan this season is built around either Raycroft or Budaj. Yet they're flexible because collectively those two are earnig under 2 million and signed to short deals. You could lose either on re-entry waivers iwthout batting an eylash.
In the meantime, the Avs are looking nice at forward. Atleast their top six.
Stastny appears to be the real fucking deal, by both counting numbers and Dejardins numbers- and he's only entering his 22 year old season. 3rd in the league in Points/60 and +/60 last year, while make great strides in both competition and -/60. Then you still have Wolski, Svatos, Hejduk, and- oh yeah- Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic.
The defense is solid, too. The 6-7 spot is taken by, I think, Salei and Daniel Tjarnqvist. Even with losing Saurer and Finger, they appear to have plugged the holes and will be icing a solid defense.
A goaltender capable of a league average performance will most likely become available to them when teams sort out the rosters and the season begins.
I have a feeling that the Avalanche are going to shock people.
They get no love, probably because they put Raycroft on their roster.
I have the same vague feeling. Their D should be excellent -- I think Hannan is a bit overrated as a #1 shutdown guy, but Clark is back and Leopold is healthy.
Thing is, it *is* hard to get your head around why a team that isn't particularly young should be better this year, when their two big acquisitions were guys the FUCKING LEAFS BOUGHT OUT. Also, their PP is genuinely shitty: was before the injuries, during, and after, at least until Forsberg swooped in.
To count them out would be insane, but they could absolutely finish anywhere.
OK, so as someone who saw way too much Leafs hockey last year, let me say this - Avs need goaltending and Tucker is done. Well, in the case of Tucker, him at 100% is not so good really. Sound and fury and all that.
But the Avs are a wildcard, seriously. Ton of injuries last year but they still beat the Wild - a goalie, a couple of breaks and a Lidstrom injury from the class of the WC. As for the the NW - meh - the Flames will make the playoffs but barely and the Wild are going to hang in there but barely.
I can't believe it but I think the Oilers are in.
Cue Death March.
For those whom like both HOCKEY and POLITICS
(shameless plug: http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.com/).
Today NHLPA and Buzz Hargrove, later the this weekend Why the NHLPA should kick the Kings' ass (and maybe Alanta, St. Louis as well).
IF ONLY i could add beer as the other main topic the blog would be perfect.
Nobody ever believes in the Wild, because no one really understands why they're successful (me included, although Gaborik >> Kovalchuk is a good start).
I don't get it, either, but they've had the Oilers' number for years, so I'm inclined to respect them until they prove otherwise.
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/4
I was having this discussion with my brother-in-law last night, and he said the first three. I'm inclined to agree with Jonathan: #4 is probably right, and #2 is possible, but #1 and #3 are nuts.
"...when one of their two big acquisitions was a guy the FUCKING DUCKS BOUGHT OUT"
Heh-heh.
No, but seriously, I hear what both Matt and Black Dog are saying. Really though, I think the Tucker signing is a bit of a red herring.
As in, "aww, the Avs suck cuz they signed Tucker, and he's finished".
Whether Tucker was ever that great to begin with is another conversation. In this case, I don't believe he was brought in to play in the Avs top 6 like, say, Todd Bertuzzi has been for the Flames.
The Tucker signing is really inconsequential, because first, it doesn't alter the fact that, if healthy, the Avs have the best top six forwards in the division, and second, having Tucker in the bottom six doesn't make the team worse off.
If (and it's a big IF), Sakic and Smyth can remain healthy for the duration of the season, that can only improve Stastny's performance. He's arguably the best player under 25 years old who's not named Crosby. Last year one could argue he was the best producer at evens in the league when you consider that the only people ahead of him played in the higher scoring Eastern conference and in tandems (the only folks ahead of him in Pts/60 were Crosby and Malkin, and the only guys ahead of him in Goals For rates were Heatley and Spezza).
For some reason Vancouver is on my mind as a sleeper, even though they may have 2/3 garbage for forwards.
They may or may not have a solid corps for defence if healthy, and Luongo is a Rubik's cube even in an off-year. All they need is Taylor Pyatt and Demitra to have a good year and they could squeek by on offence.
I don't want this to happen of course.
Gaborik is one guy you would absolutely trade him for.
I wouldn't. Not because of talent, that's undeniable, but the guy is constantly hurt.
Post a Comment
<< Home
Beyond that, I think this is the year that one team separates from the pack early-ish, and then stretches out their lead all season and plays around in the Wings' neighbourhood.
Which team?
The main problem I have with most of the hockey predictions is that, generally, people focus on the players moving in and out, but IMO mostly assume that the players remaining will perform more or less the same as the year previous.
ie. For the Oilers, people will look at the roster and say "Cole, Visnovsky, Strudwick in, Stoll, Torres and Greene out" and base their opinion on how the team will do going forward on those changes, while (if not outright ignoring) minimizing the impact of change within the far more important performance of the remaining 18 players still on the roster for last year.
while (if not outright ignoring) minimizing the impact of change within the far more important performance of the remaining 18 players still on the roster for last year.
Agreed. I know I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude with Garon, Grebeshkov, Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson and Brodziak. Garon in particular scares the crap out of me.
I am confident that Cole will impress, however. I watched him tons in Carolina, and the guy is the real deal. This town is going to go bonkers for him.
The only team that I see taking a step back is the Oilers, and that's just because they were lucky as all get out last year.
# posted by 
: September 26, 2008 2:46 pm
: September 26, 2008 2:46 pm The conventional wisdom seems to be that Calgary is winning the division, but I find this completely baffling, considering I'm almost certain they got worse over the summer, not better. In fact, everyone but Edmonton got definitively worse this summer, at least as far as I can tell. Am I missing something, here?
If I had to pick a team honestly, I'd go with the Wild. They once again have a solid pair of goaltenders, a stable game plan, and a legitimate star in Gaborik.
Certainly, it won't be Colorado or Vancouver. Colorado will get killed in the net this year, regardless of their performance everywhere else. Vancouver has a stellar goalie, but he's been stellar before, and it's just not enough to make up for the rest of the team.
Calgary and Edmonton have too many unknowns, and are too close to home for me to judge. If Vezina Kipper is back, however, watch out.
Am I missing something, here?
Nobody ever believes in the Wild, because no one really understands why they're successful (me included, although Gaborik >> Kovalchuk is a good start).
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/4/
I feel very similarly on politics, but I too read Wells because I like to know what's going on and he's not shy about ripping any of the parties. Even when I disagree with him I appreciate his arguments.
As to hockey- Columbus is going to be way better than people expect this year. Also- Tampa Bay will not make the playoffs.
Finally: At least half of Mike Brophy's THN predictions are going to be out.
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/
I'd say the last one is right, and the 2nd one might be. Other than that, no.
The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling.
Matt has to be thinking that the Oilers are the breakaway team, right? He'd just tell us otherwise.
On a serious note, Gaborik's fun to watch but would you really trade Horcoff straight-up for for him?
# posted by : September 26, 2008 6:48 pm
: September 26, 2008 6:48 pm "The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling."
That I don't get. Just 'cause he isn't doing what he was supposed to or what he was paid to doesn't mean he is not an extremely useful player.
I'll miss him.
# posted by : September 26, 2008 6:52 pm
: September 26, 2008 6:52 pm The lack of respect for Tanguay among Calgary fans is baffling.
Unfortunate (and of course moot at this point), but not baffling. Comes down to 4 numbers: 18-40-58, and $5250000. The default assumption that people whose names are pronounced with an accent don't have intangibles probably didn't help either.
Matt has to be thinking that the Oilers are the breakaway team, right? He'd just tell us otherwise.
Nah, I really don't know, but I'm pretty sure it's not the Oil. I'd guess the Wild or Flames, though if the Canucks get one more good NHL forward it might be them. Or if the Avs get Conklinesque goaltending (Pittsburgh edition) and have as good a PP as they ought to given their top end forwards, it could be them.
And though Horcoff is widely underappreciated (present company excepted), Gaborik is one guy you would absolutely trade him for. Contract situations notwithstanding.
I have a feeling that the Avalanche are going to shock people.
They get no love, probably because they put Raycroft on their roster. I don't think the long term plan this season is built around either Raycroft or Budaj. Yet they're flexible because collectively those two are earnig under 2 million and signed to short deals. You could lose either on re-entry waivers iwthout batting an eylash.
In the meantime, the Avs are looking nice at forward. Atleast their top six.
Stastny appears to be the real fucking deal, by both counting numbers and Dejardins numbers- and he's only entering his 22 year old season. 3rd in the league in Points/60 and +/60 last year, while make great strides in both competition and -/60. Then you still have Wolski, Svatos, Hejduk, and- oh yeah- Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic.
The defense is solid, too. The 6-7 spot is taken by, I think, Salei and Daniel Tjarnqvist. Even with losing Saurer and Finger, they appear to have plugged the holes and will be icing a solid defense.
A goaltender capable of a league average performance will most likely become available to them when teams sort out the rosters and the season begins.
I have a feeling that the Avalanche are going to shock people.
They get no love, probably because they put Raycroft on their roster.
I have the same vague feeling. Their D should be excellent -- I think Hannan is a bit overrated as a #1 shutdown guy, but Clark is back and Leopold is healthy.
Thing is, it *is* hard to get your head around why a team that isn't particularly young should be better this year, when their two big acquisitions were guys the FUCKING LEAFS BOUGHT OUT. Also, their PP is genuinely shitty: was before the injuries, during, and after, at least until Forsberg swooped in.
To count them out would be insane, but they could absolutely finish anywhere.
OK, so as someone who saw way too much Leafs hockey last year, let me say this - Avs need goaltending and Tucker is done. Well, in the case of Tucker, him at 100% is not so good really. Sound and fury and all that.
But the Avs are a wildcard, seriously. Ton of injuries last year but they still beat the Wild - a goalie, a couple of breaks and a Lidstrom injury from the class of the WC. As for the the NW - meh - the Flames will make the playoffs but barely and the Wild are going to hang in there but barely.
I can't believe it but I think the Oilers are in.
Cue Death March.
For those whom like both HOCKEY and POLITICS
(shameless plug: http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.com/).
Today NHLPA and Buzz Hargrove, later the this weekend Why the NHLPA should kick the Kings' ass (and maybe Alanta, St. Louis as well).
IF ONLY i could add beer as the other main topic the blog would be perfect.
Nobody ever believes in the Wild, because no one really understands why they're successful (me included, although Gaborik >> Kovalchuk is a good start).
I don't get it, either, but they've had the Oilers' number for years, so I'm inclined to respect them until they prove otherwise.
The Calgary pickers see/think:
- Tanguay isn't that big a loss and/or was replaced
- Kipper will rebound this season
- Bertuzzi is still a player
- they got better in the bottom 6 fwds
Not sure exactly how many of these are correct, but I'd say it's > 0/4 and < 4/4
I was having this discussion with my brother-in-law last night, and he said the first three. I'm inclined to agree with Jonathan: #4 is probably right, and #2 is possible, but #1 and #3 are nuts.
"...when one of their two big acquisitions was a guy the FUCKING DUCKS BOUGHT OUT"
Heh-heh.
No, but seriously, I hear what both Matt and Black Dog are saying. Really though, I think the Tucker signing is a bit of a red herring.
As in, "aww, the Avs suck cuz they signed Tucker, and he's finished".
Whether Tucker was ever that great to begin with is another conversation. In this case, I don't believe he was brought in to play in the Avs top 6 like, say, Todd Bertuzzi has been for the Flames.
The Tucker signing is really inconsequential, because first, it doesn't alter the fact that, if healthy, the Avs have the best top six forwards in the division, and second, having Tucker in the bottom six doesn't make the team worse off.
If (and it's a big IF), Sakic and Smyth can remain healthy for the duration of the season, that can only improve Stastny's performance. He's arguably the best player under 25 years old who's not named Crosby. Last year one could argue he was the best producer at evens in the league when you consider that the only people ahead of him played in the higher scoring Eastern conference and in tandems (the only folks ahead of him in Pts/60 were Crosby and Malkin, and the only guys ahead of him in Goals For rates were Heatley and Spezza).
For some reason Vancouver is on my mind as a sleeper, even though they may have 2/3 garbage for forwards.
They may or may not have a solid corps for defence if healthy, and Luongo is a Rubik's cube even in an off-year. All they need is Taylor Pyatt and Demitra to have a good year and they could squeek by on offence.
I don't want this to happen of course.
Gaborik is one guy you would absolutely trade him for.
I wouldn't. Not because of talent, that's undeniable, but the guy is constantly hurt.
Post a Comment
<< Home
