I've been enjoying the heck out of my July, and getting quite a bit of work done too, but I do feel like I missed out on the whole Hot Stove/UFA thing. I hope you've been tuning into Five Hole Fanatics; MG has been doing a solid job of debriefing the Flames' moves.

It's extremely tough to divine what the Flames depth chart at forward looks like right now. Apart from Jarome Iginla being the #1 line RW, it's awfully open. If you made me guess, it'd be something like:


I think Keenan is open to playing the Iginla line power-vs.-power, but he's not intent on it... judging by last season, he prefers some balance between the top two lines, which almost definitely means the Langkow is not next to Iginla, because who the hell else is able to anchor a decent EV line besides those two.

I'm pretty sure Bertuzzi starts the season with Iginla... I assume Lombardi has been tabbed for Top 6 duty, with Conroy centring the 3rd line... Rudy informs us that MikeC played RW for the most part last season, which I think fits with need anyway; it also means that his counting numbers aren't likely to be much better next season than they were last, because the 2line RW never gets to play with Iginla.

I think that 3rd line has a chance to be pretty good against a mix of competition... Moss has limited upside as a point producer, but I think he's actually underrated as a two-way player; based on what I know about them, I think it's more likely that Langkow and Moss are propping up Cammy at EV than Langkow trying futilely to drag both Moss and Cammy up the ice.

Sutter's worst move of July has to have been $2.3M X 3 years for Vandermeer; that's just too much money for too long. I have written before that, while there is no magic formula when it comes to signing free agents, there are pitfalls to be avoided. They include:

• Paying too much for someone's counting numbers if they were mostly achieved on the PP and against softer competition
• Giving more than a year or two to someone who could conceivably be displaced in your starting lineup much sooner (there's Jimmy V)
• Giving a one-way contract to someone who is unlikely to be in your Opening Night lineup on merit (cough Brandon Prust)

Another pitfall, IMO, is paying for offense from more than one defenseman, which is why I'm pretty skeptical about the Brian Campbell signing by the Hawks. On the one hand, their PP was pretty lousy last year (24th), and they don't presently have a clear #1 point man who can shoot, distribute, etc., so maybe he was a smart acquisition, in the same manner as he was an excellent acquisition by the Sharks last season. On the other hand, Seabrook and/or Barker are supposed to be growing into that role, and they already have a "do-it-all" d-man in Keith. The Campbell contract only makes sense if he provides a huge marginal advantage over the alternatives, and I'm not at all sure that he does. (And this is setting aside the too-long term, and the fact that he looked very ordinary in the playoffs.)

Just to flesh out that whole point a bit more: the idea, the way I see it, is that when it comes to goals/points, you really only want to pay defensemen for PP production, not EV. For one, d-men just don't put up numbers at even-strength (last season, only 2 dmen had more than 30 EV points, and only 1 had more than 10 EV goals), and for two, a lot of that is a direct consequence of the forwards they're playing with. Yes, it's nice to have a guy who can make a stretch pass, but the difference points-wise between good offensive defensemen and mediocre ones -- at even-strength -- is pretty marginal. Click here: only Kronwall and Lidstrom played D all season and scored more than 1.2EVpts/60; forwards in that range include the likes of Martin Lapointe, Boyd Gordon, Dan Hinote, and Rene Bourque.

**On the topic of bad contracts, I'm thrilled to see that the NW Division's own Colorado Avalanche gave out two of the worst: $4.5M/2yrs for Darcy Tucker, who looks to be even more cooked than Bertuzzi, and $800k for Andrew Raycroft, who is absolutely not an NHL-calibre goalie. No wonder Joe Sakic is taking his time.

• Apparently I'm the only guy who doesn't think Brian Rolston is underrated, so I think $20.25M/4yrs was too much for the Devils to pay for too long.
• Count me among those who think the Redden deal was possibly Sather's worst ever.
• Georges Laraque is an excellent guy to have on board your team, but 3 years at $1.5M per is absolutely inexplicable to me. Along those lines, thankyou thankyou thankyou to the Penguins for getting Eric Godard out of my town.
• I think enough has been said about Jeff Finger and Ron Hainsey
  
• I spent the day after the Finals ended telling everybody that I thought the Capitals were the team to beat in the East next season; I'm less certain of that now. Theodore In, Huet Out isn't a great bargain, though I understand the decision; I also assumed that they would be paying a lot less than $4M for another year of Sergei Fedorov. I would have liked to see them sign at least one player where you could say, "Oh, he'll make them better." They haven't.

On the good deal side:

• I'm with Mirtle and others that Phoenix did well for themselves. Sauer at $7M/4yrs, Fedoruk at $3M/3yrs, and even Hale at $1.4M over 2 years all seem like good value signings. Where I differ with most is in lumping them in with Chicago as up-and-comers; I think the Coyotes have a lot further to go than the Hawks do.
• Duh: the Wings getting Hossa on a 1-year deal is a hell of a coup
• Thrashers do something right, and sign Jason Williams at $2.2M for a year
• On all counts except for the Fleury extension (I'm not a believer) and the above-mentioned Godard signing, I think the Pens did really well for themselves given their options
• Bobby Holik is a good bet to cover 1 year at $2.5M, he does the proverbial little things well
• And I like the $4M x 2 year bet by the Canucks on Demitra; he can be a really tough guy to play against.

I'm going to have to ruminate for a good month before trying to handicap the Northwest in '08/09. Until then, around here, it'll either be fun & frivolity, or dead air. Go Flames.