Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Plausible Prognostication or Just Plain Nuts? [updated]
[Updated]
If this entirely plausible set of events were to occur over the next 5 days:
Leg 1
March 18: Oilers beat Coyotes (in Edmonton) -- check
March 18: Predatorsbeat lose to Capitals (in Nashville) -- bonus!
March 18: BJ's beat Flames (in Columbus) -- bonus!
Leg 2
March 20: Red Wings beat Preds (in Nashville) -- check
March 20: Flames beat Avs (in Calgary) -- check
March 20: Oilers beat Canucks (in Edmonton) -- disaster
March 20: Coyotesbeat lose to LA in OT (in Phoenix) -- bonus!
Leg 3
March 21: Wild beat Canucks (in Vancouver) -- check
Leg 4:
March 22: Oilers beat Avs (in Edmonton) -- check
March 22: Predators beat Blackhawks (in Nashville) -- check, but bummer
March 22: Ducks beat Coyotes (in Phoenix)
March 22: Wild beat Calgary (in Calgary)
Then the standings would look like this:
. . .
6. Calgary (75 GP) 86 points
7. Vancouver (75 GP) 84 points
8. Colorado (76 GP) 84 points
9. Edmonton (76 GP) 83 points
10. Nashville (76 GP) 82 points
11. Phoenix (76 GP) 79 points
. . .
That could happen, right?
If this entirely plausible set of events were to occur over the next 5 days:
Leg 1
March 18: Oilers beat Coyotes (in Edmonton) -- check
March 18: Predators
March 18: BJ's beat Flames (in Columbus) -- bonus!
Leg 2
March 20: Red Wings beat Preds (in Nashville) -- check
March 20: Flames beat Avs (in Calgary) -- check
March 20: Oilers beat Canucks (in Edmonton) -- disaster
March 20: Coyotes
Leg 3
March 21: Wild beat Canucks (in Vancouver) -- check
Leg 4:
March 22: Oilers beat Avs (in Edmonton) -- check
March 22: Predators beat Blackhawks (in Nashville) -- check, but bummer
March 22: Ducks beat Coyotes (in Phoenix)
March 22: Wild beat Calgary (in Calgary)
Then the standings would look like this:
. . .
6. Calgary (75 GP) 86 points
7. Vancouver (75 GP) 84 points
8. Colorado (76 GP) 84 points
9. Edmonton (76 GP) 83 points
10. Nashville (76 GP) 82 points
11. Phoenix (76 GP) 79 points
. . .
That could happen, right?
# posted by sacamano @ 8:29 am 
Comments:
I dunno ... can the Oilers win 3 in a row in regulation? That doesn't seem entirely plausible to me. If they do their usual and win all three in the Shoot-out, the Canucks and Avs would each have 85 points.
But I am cheering for the entirely plausible.
Go Flames.
March 22: Oilers beat Avs (in Edmonton)
I don't know. They kicked the junk out of us last week. Plus, Peter's right. We can't win in regulation.
Meh. Colorado has been pretty average on the road (same record as Edmonton, actually).
They have lost three of their last 5 games, and all three were on the road.
They will be coming here at the end of a 1-week trip, after losing at Minny and, presumably, at Calgary.
I don't mind that matchup.
If each game is a coin flip, the odds are just under 1 in 1000. I'm part of the chorus of cynics who doesn't think that the Oilers should do this and doesn't think that you should be offering false hope. In the unlikely story of the Edmonton Oilers, there has been false hope on several occasions. This is one of them.
No they can't.
Sure. And if each game is a roll of the dice we get into all kinds of funny territory.
But I'm not sure I'd call each of those games a coin flip. It isn't like I predicted all kinds of massive upsets.
Generally speaking, I went for the favorites at home, with a few reasonable exceptions (Wings in Nashville, Wild in Vancouver, Ducks in Phoenix).
It isn't like I predicted all kinds of massive upsets.
You did predict three straight regulation wins for the Oilers. I wouldn't take those odds.
Well of course you wouldn't.
But I'm pretty sure you also wouldn't have bet that the Oil would win three OT games in a row on Dec 11, 13, 15, or March 7, 9, 11. Or three regular season games in a row on Jan 7, 10, 13.
In any case, I'm not tied to regulation wins. Put the wins vs Phoenix and Vancouver into overtime if you want.
That still puts the Oilers one point back of Nashville and Colorado for 8th.
Well of course you wouldn't.
You are right. But if we get som BIG GOALS, we might be able to pull it off. :)
Plausibility is for suckers, let's go with the version of history where the Canucks and Ducks fall out of the playoffs.
If each game is a coin flip, the Oilers have a ~1/10 chance of making the post-season, not a 1/1000.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
I'm not sure how you get 1/1000 (presumably 0.5^9). But an 8-1 record will almost certainly get the Oilers in, and a 7-2, with wins against the right teams, makes it a real possibility. Moreover, if the games are a coin flip, that should hold for the other teams too.
Man, if we go on a 16-4 bender to end the season, AFTER losing Horcoff, well, I just don't know what I'll do. It doesn't seem remotely possible, yet we're halfway there.
I wonder what the proline payout on that bet would be.
James Gunner
Man, if we go on a 16-4 bender to end the season, AFTER losing Horcoff, well, I just don't know what I'll do. It doesn't seem remotely possible, yet we're halfway there.
You should know better Grabia. We have Pisani. ANYTHING is possible.
Realistically, I'll be happy if we go 5-4 the rest of the way and end the season 41-36-5. "True". 500, probably enough to keep Burke away from a top-eight draft pick, yes?
You should know better Grabia. We have Pisani. ANYTHING is possible.
I watched that San Jose game and thought, could it be? It really did feel like 2006 again, even down to Joe Thornton choking on a two on nothing in overtime. It felt like Fortune had turned, right then and there. That's why I called Pisani to score. It just fit. Eery.
As such, I expect us to come out tonight and stink to high heaven. This team is playing way above its head right now.
Realistically, I'll be happy if we go 5-4 the rest of the way and end the season 41-36-5.
That sounds about right to me, too. Heck, we should be ecstatic if it turns out that good.
Winning 12 of our last 14? That sounds like crazy talk.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
Have you guys thought about sending this in to the competition committee?
Take out the shoot-out, take out overtime, take out regulation, and institute the coin toss.
Maybe, in the case of the coin landing on edge, we could still use the shootout, and give out some loser points. For tradition's sake.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
If they win tonight, you're going to be eating a lot of those sandwiches between now and April 3rd Loxy....
"There is superstition, the writing's on the wall....."
Take out the shoot-out, take out overtime, take out regulation, and institute the coin toss.
That's ridiculous! It completely takes the skill factor out of hockey. And how often does a coin land on edge? Not often enough to replicate the tie/shootout.
Rock, paper, scissors is the only true test of hockey skill. Of course, the debate will rage on regarding how to measure ties. Are they simply a point a piece? Should there be a Morra overtime period? Do you institute paper football shootouts?
The possibilities are endless.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
Calling all Albertans: Loxy has officially become a British Columbian. :)
lol. 8-2 in the last 10 doesn't mean 7-2 in the next 9 is plausible... just means you're due for a slump. Has any team other than Detroit had 2 back-to-back streaks like that all year?
It is fun to dream though... I'd love to see it happen.
LT even pulled out the Stan Weir today. I think we all better calm down a bit, here.
Do you think the Stanley Cup parade should go down Whyte Avenue this year? After the ruckus in 2005, it might be ill-advised, although on the other hand, Fernando Pisani would doubtless pacify the would-be violent. I just hope we get to see it on the Coast.
(I'm trying to jinx the Oilers so completely that it rolls over into us winning hockey games.)
LOL @ Coilers fans
looks like u are going to loose against the mighty phoenix jets tonite!!!
Ahhh F4F. I've missed you.
Things are really coming together tonight. Nashville loses -- one game ahead of the plausibility schedule.
And, even though the BJ's get some points, it is still pretty sweet to see the Falmes get spanked.
coils had some lucky bounces and could win based on them, but look at them now -- there fading fast and the jets are regaining the momentum.
but whatever -- COIL still gonna miss the playoffs, while the flames are in to win.
That's because it's text, Andy. You can't hear text. You see, sound is something...
I mean GOCURTIS GLENCURTIS!!
I was keeping a tab on this game at work. I saw the Oilers take a 4-2 lead (actually got the CHED webstream going long enough to hear Hot Rodziak's goal), then just as I was leaving saw a 4-4 tie.
Cursing all the while, I took the bus home and went grocery shopping. Come back in, bring up NHL.com more out of a sense of obligation than genuine curiousity, and OH MY GOD ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Tonight we are all Curtis Glencurtis.
speaking of fun name games, i think 'fever4flames' is an anagram for 'lameass 4ever'...
This was from a guy posting on Lowetide's game thread tonight:
"That Gagner is supposed to be a playmaker\stickhandler, but damn can he ever get a shot up quick.
Not the hardest shot, but fast and high."
I know I'm dating myself, but I remember when they used to say pretty much the same thing about the coach of the Coyotes. You know, when that skinny little kid was starting out. And yeah, I know its sacrilege to say something like that.
Seriously man. No doubt there's lots of flaws in this team, but there's also a shitload of potential. What's really cool is that they're starting to believe in themselves. Thursday night will be the most important game of the past two years. I think we might see something really special.
"Stoopid Coilers" my ass.
enjoy that "special" feeling while it lasts.. it wont last after the COIL get eliminated from the playoff roster on april 9.
I was out all night, and when I came home it was 4-4. It was a treat from that point in.
Thursday really is a HUGE game. Lots of BIG goals needed, I think. BIG GOALS.
That's what I'm thinking too. It's not too late. A few BIG GOALS could still salvage this season.
I'm talking really BIG ones.
BIG ONES. First goals. End of period goals. Tying goals. Momentum goals. Insurance goals. We'll need ALL the BIG GOALS.
Pisani for the winner with 3 seconds left in the third. That big?
Suggested new Oiler blog name: BIG GOILERS
Just to watch Matt punch people in the neck when somebody suggest BoA add it to the blogroll.
I was out all night, and when I came home it was 4-4. It was a treat from that point in.
I tuned in just in time for the PP that ended in Penner's goal. Good times.
Thursday really is a HUGE game. Lots of BIG goals needed, I think. BIG GOALS...BIG ONES. First goals. End of period goals. Tying goals. Momentum goals. Insurance goals. We'll need ALL the BIG GOALS.
I think you can make a sports psychology argument about the value of certain goals in certain situations, but probably not as often as Charlie Simmer and Rob Brown would have you believe.
Don't look now, but ... well, look:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
This as-yet-untested site suggests we have roughly the same chance of making the playoffs (17.4%) as the Flames or Avs have of missing it; not a likely chance but one worth minding. And it further suggests that the club needs only go 6-2 in its remaining games. Geez, that could actually happen, right?
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I dunno ... can the Oilers win 3 in a row in regulation? That doesn't seem entirely plausible to me. If they do their usual and win all three in the Shoot-out, the Canucks and Avs would each have 85 points.
But I am cheering for the entirely plausible.
Go Flames.
# posted by 
: March 18, 2008 9:00 am
: March 18, 2008 9:00 am March 22: Oilers beat Avs (in Edmonton)
I don't know. They kicked the junk out of us last week. Plus, Peter's right. We can't win in regulation.
Meh. Colorado has been pretty average on the road (same record as Edmonton, actually).
They have lost three of their last 5 games, and all three were on the road.
They will be coming here at the end of a 1-week trip, after losing at Minny and, presumably, at Calgary.
I don't mind that matchup.
If each game is a coin flip, the odds are just under 1 in 1000. I'm part of the chorus of cynics who doesn't think that the Oilers should do this and doesn't think that you should be offering false hope. In the unlikely story of the Edmonton Oilers, there has been false hope on several occasions. This is one of them.
No they can't.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 9:56 am
: March 18, 2008 9:56 am Sure. And if each game is a roll of the dice we get into all kinds of funny territory.
But I'm not sure I'd call each of those games a coin flip. It isn't like I predicted all kinds of massive upsets.
Generally speaking, I went for the favorites at home, with a few reasonable exceptions (Wings in Nashville, Wild in Vancouver, Ducks in Phoenix).
It isn't like I predicted all kinds of massive upsets.
You did predict three straight regulation wins for the Oilers. I wouldn't take those odds.
Well of course you wouldn't.
But I'm pretty sure you also wouldn't have bet that the Oil would win three OT games in a row on Dec 11, 13, 15, or March 7, 9, 11. Or three regular season games in a row on Jan 7, 10, 13.
In any case, I'm not tied to regulation wins. Put the wins vs Phoenix and Vancouver into overtime if you want.
That still puts the Oilers one point back of Nashville and Colorado for 8th.
Well of course you wouldn't.
You are right. But if we get som BIG GOALS, we might be able to pull it off. :)
Plausibility is for suckers, let's go with the version of history where the Canucks and Ducks fall out of the playoffs.
If each game is a coin flip, the Oilers have a ~1/10 chance of making the post-season, not a 1/1000.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
I'm not sure how you get 1/1000 (presumably 0.5^9). But an 8-1 record will almost certainly get the Oilers in, and a 7-2, with wins against the right teams, makes it a real possibility. Moreover, if the games are a coin flip, that should hold for the other teams too.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 11:51 am
: March 18, 2008 11:51 am Man, if we go on a 16-4 bender to end the season, AFTER losing Horcoff, well, I just don't know what I'll do. It doesn't seem remotely possible, yet we're halfway there.
I wonder what the proline payout on that bet would be.
James Gunner
# posted by : March 18, 2008 12:35 pm
: March 18, 2008 12:35 pm Man, if we go on a 16-4 bender to end the season, AFTER losing Horcoff, well, I just don't know what I'll do. It doesn't seem remotely possible, yet we're halfway there.
You should know better Grabia. We have Pisani. ANYTHING is possible.
Realistically, I'll be happy if we go 5-4 the rest of the way and end the season 41-36-5. "True". 500, probably enough to keep Burke away from a top-eight draft pick, yes?
You should know better Grabia. We have Pisani. ANYTHING is possible.
I watched that San Jose game and thought, could it be? It really did feel like 2006 again, even down to Joe Thornton choking on a two on nothing in overtime. It felt like Fortune had turned, right then and there. That's why I called Pisani to score. It just fit. Eery.
As such, I expect us to come out tonight and stink to high heaven. This team is playing way above its head right now.
Realistically, I'll be happy if we go 5-4 the rest of the way and end the season 41-36-5.
That sounds about right to me, too. Heck, we should be ecstatic if it turns out that good.
Winning 12 of our last 14? That sounds like crazy talk.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
Have you guys thought about sending this in to the competition committee?
Take out the shoot-out, take out overtime, take out regulation, and institute the coin toss.
Maybe, in the case of the coin landing on edge, we could still use the shootout, and give out some loser points. For tradition's sake.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
If they win tonight, you're going to be eating a lot of those sandwiches between now and April 3rd Loxy....
"There is superstition, the writing's on the wall....."
Take out the shoot-out, take out overtime, take out regulation, and institute the coin toss.
That's ridiculous! It completely takes the skill factor out of hockey. And how often does a coin land on edge? Not often enough to replicate the tie/shootout.
Rock, paper, scissors is the only true test of hockey skill. Of course, the debate will rage on regarding how to measure ties. Are they simply a point a piece? Should there be a Morra overtime period? Do you institute paper football shootouts?
The possibilities are endless.
On a side note.. I just made a grilled cheese sandwich with dill havarti and hot capicolli sausage from the local deli on flax bread.. it was fantastic.
Calling all Albertans: Loxy has officially become a British Columbian. :)
lol. 8-2 in the last 10 doesn't mean 7-2 in the next 9 is plausible... just means you're due for a slump. Has any team other than Detroit had 2 back-to-back streaks like that all year?
It is fun to dream though... I'd love to see it happen.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 4:51 pm
: March 18, 2008 4:51 pm LT even pulled out the Stan Weir today. I think we all better calm down a bit, here.
Do you think the Stanley Cup parade should go down Whyte Avenue this year? After the ruckus in 2005, it might be ill-advised, although on the other hand, Fernando Pisani would doubtless pacify the would-be violent. I just hope we get to see it on the Coast.
(I'm trying to jinx the Oilers so completely that it rolls over into us winning hockey games.)
LOL @ Coilers fans
looks like u are going to loose against the mighty phoenix jets tonite!!!
# posted by : March 18, 2008 8:03 pm
: March 18, 2008 8:03 pm Ahhh F4F. I've missed you.
Things are really coming together tonight. Nashville loses -- one game ahead of the plausibility schedule.
And, even though the BJ's get some points, it is still pretty sweet to see the Falmes get spanked.
coils had some lucky bounces and could win based on them, but look at them now -- there fading fast and the jets are regaining the momentum.
but whatever -- COIL still gonna miss the playoffs, while the flames are in to win.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 8:57 pm
: March 18, 2008 8:57 pm That's because it's text, Andy. You can't hear text. You see, sound is something...
I mean GOCURTIS GLENCURTIS!!
I was keeping a tab on this game at work. I saw the Oilers take a 4-2 lead (actually got the CHED webstream going long enough to hear Hot Rodziak's goal), then just as I was leaving saw a 4-4 tie.
Cursing all the while, I took the bus home and went grocery shopping. Come back in, bring up NHL.com more out of a sense of obligation than genuine curiousity, and OH MY GOD ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Tonight we are all Curtis Glencurtis.
speaking of fun name games, i think 'fever4flames' is an anagram for 'lameass 4ever'...
This was from a guy posting on Lowetide's game thread tonight:
"That Gagner is supposed to be a playmaker\stickhandler, but damn can he ever get a shot up quick.
Not the hardest shot, but fast and high."
I know I'm dating myself, but I remember when they used to say pretty much the same thing about the coach of the Coyotes. You know, when that skinny little kid was starting out. And yeah, I know its sacrilege to say something like that.
Seriously man. No doubt there's lots of flaws in this team, but there's also a shitload of potential. What's really cool is that they're starting to believe in themselves. Thursday night will be the most important game of the past two years. I think we might see something really special.
"Stoopid Coilers" my ass.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 10:30 pm
: March 18, 2008 10:30 pm enjoy that "special" feeling while it lasts.. it wont last after the COIL get eliminated from the playoff roster on april 9.
# posted by : March 18, 2008 10:35 pm
: March 18, 2008 10:35 pm I was out all night, and when I came home it was 4-4. It was a treat from that point in.
Thursday really is a HUGE game. Lots of BIG goals needed, I think. BIG GOALS.
That's what I'm thinking too. It's not too late. A few BIG GOALS could still salvage this season.
I'm talking really BIG ones.
BIG ONES. First goals. End of period goals. Tying goals. Momentum goals. Insurance goals. We'll need ALL the BIG GOALS.
Pisani for the winner with 3 seconds left in the third. That big?
# posted by : March 19, 2008 12:00 am
: March 19, 2008 12:00 am Suggested new Oiler blog name: BIG GOILERS
Just to watch Matt punch people in the neck when somebody suggest BoA add it to the blogroll.
I was out all night, and when I came home it was 4-4. It was a treat from that point in.
I tuned in just in time for the PP that ended in Penner's goal. Good times.
Thursday really is a HUGE game. Lots of BIG goals needed, I think. BIG GOALS...BIG ONES. First goals. End of period goals. Tying goals. Momentum goals. Insurance goals. We'll need ALL the BIG GOALS.
I think you can make a sports psychology argument about the value of certain goals in certain situations, but probably not as often as Charlie Simmer and Rob Brown would have you believe.
Don't look now, but ... well, look:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
This as-yet-untested site suggests we have roughly the same chance of making the playoffs (17.4%) as the Flames or Avs have of missing it; not a likely chance but one worth minding. And it further suggests that the club needs only go 6-2 in its remaining games. Geez, that could actually happen, right?
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