First of all, Garon probably isn't really this good. He's currently sitting at a .920 save percentage. He was at .907 and at .894 in 2005-06. He posted a .921 in 19 games in 2003-04. This is the first year in which he's really put up the save percentage that exceeds the league average and played a substantial amount of games. In light of his age and history, I'm doubtful that he's taken a real leap into the elite as opposed to just having a good/lucky season.

Second, there are some teams out there who you'd think might be susceptible to the indefinable charms of Kevin Lowe on this particular point. Lowe has some experience with parachuting a good goaltender into a team that's suffering from horrific goaltending. The results were pretty good. In particular, the Capitals stick out to me. He could also repeat the names "Martin Vagner, Maxime Daigneault and Derek Krestanovich" - those were the guys drafted with all of the picks that the Flyers traded Washington for Adam Oates when they had a hole to fill down the middle in 2002. (He shouldn't mention that the Caps moved the pick that was used on Vagner to get the pick that they used to take Alexander Semin but you get my drift.)

Washington is in a somewhat similar position to the Oilers of 2005-06, in that they're outshooting their opposition by a substantial margin at ES - they're second in the league at this at 5 on 5, according to behindthenet.ca. Despite that, they're at -0.2/60 at ES, 21st in the NHL, largely because the legendary duo of Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson. Kolzig, the de facto number one, is having a terrible season, posting an .889 save percentage. Kolzig's had one above average season in terms of save percentage in the last four and is getting up there in years. Washington has an .891 save percentage at the moment; the difference between that and the number posted by Garon is huge.

I don't necessarily think that Washington is as good as that Oilers team - I actually don't think that they're anywhere near that team - but they're sitting in a pretty sweet spot right now. They're two points behind the Hurricanes, with two games in hand and tied with Atlanta, with a game in hand. The Panthers sit two points back of Washington - the Capitals have a game in hand on them as well. The prize for the Oilers in 2005-06 if they could claw their way into the playoffs was 7th or 8th spot and a date with Dallas or Detroit; the prize for winning the Southeast is the 3rd seed and home ice for the first round, probably at least three games and a shot at a run that really moves tickets for next season. The Eastern Conference of 2007-08 isn't the Western Conference of 2005-06. There's a real shot at a run in a market where hockey tickets don't get sold just because they're hockey tickets.

Back in the days of Conkannen, I was doing the math on the difference between their save percentage and the save percentage posted by a league average goalie in terms of goals on a regular basis and it was astounding. It's the same with the Caps this year; they've seen about 1660 shots, league average is about .015 ahead of them...you're talking 25 goals or so to date. Four or five wins. For the twenty games remaining, that's a win or two and Garon has some gaudy shootout stats to point to as well. Garon's contract - he's signed for another year at $1MM is another selling point, particularly when Kolzig's contract is up this year.

Finally, it doesn't make sense for the Oilers to be holding onto value for this year or, probably, next year. I took some jabs at Lowe last year for trying to bring the Billy Beane when he doesn't quite get it. Beane made an interesting series of trades this offseason that Lowe should be paying some attention to. He traded Dan Haren (15-9, 137 ERA+, 222.7 IP last year) and Nick Swisher (127 OPS+ in 539 AB last year), despite the fact that the A's owned those guys on cheap contracts for a bit longer. Why did he do this? He did it because the A's weren't going to be competitive with those guys in the lineup and it made sense to transfer what value they might have to the future, when the A's anticipate being a stronger team. The return was a rather large haul of prospects. He's trying to build a team that can compete for a World Series, Haren and Swisher weren't going to be cheap contributors in the window when he perceives success to be likely - they're cashed in for guys who might be. It's the absolute right move to make.

If Lowe could get a first - and I know that people are going to point out what Bryzgalov pulled in return but the market is different at the trade deadline (shame that the Oilers didn't have a large 6'6" defenceman available last year to move) and you get situations where needs are glaring, the price of fixing them in terms of dollars is low and the return can be significant - I'd think that he'd have to think awfully long and hard about this trade. It'd be a defensible move from Washington's perspective, even with that price, I think, because the upside is so huge and it's now - it's not a maybe, down the road. This would be nowhere near the most lopsided trade deadline move of all time, in terms of expected impact versus cost.

I'm sure that anyone who's read this far is having a hard time wrapping their head around the possibility that Garon could possibly be worth that sort of a return but it's a case of extreme need meeting limited demand. I don't see any goalies out there who a GM could talk himself into believing could come in and play at an above average level and above average goaltending would be worth the world to Washington. I don't think that any of this will happen; indeed, I don't think that Kevin Lowe sees things the same way that I do but a move like I've suggested would be a real coup for the Oilers and a step in building towards a window for success.

# posted by mc79hockey @ 11:30 PM