Saturday, February 16, 2008
Big Game for the Oilers!
There are some around here who dislike the idea of "big games" or "big goals", claiming that all games or goals are equally "big".
This awesome website demonstrates* that tonight's game vs Vancouver is, indeed, a huge game.
As a bonus, the site also tells us conclusively who to cheer for in the out of town games.
*Confession: I haven't actually had time to go through the assumptions of the calculations; but on first blush it seems sound to me.
This awesome website demonstrates* that tonight's game vs Vancouver is, indeed, a huge game.
As a bonus, the site also tells us conclusively who to cheer for in the out of town games.
*Confession: I haven't actually had time to go through the assumptions of the calculations; but on first blush it seems sound to me.
# posted by sacamano @ 11:09 am 
Comments:
Cool website. Hey, where are the non-huge games on the remainder of the Oilers' sked? And if they're all huge, does it mean much to call any particular one huge?
Holy fuck. Are you kidding me?
While all games are important, some are still more valuable than others.
A win vs teams who are already out of it (i.e., LA) or teams who we can't catch (e.g., Dallas, Detroit, etc.) are not as valuable as wins vs teams that we can catch (e.g., Colorado). A win vs Colorado gives us points and denies them points. Denying Detroit points is irrelevant to our chances of making playoffs; denying Colorado points is necessary for our chances of making playoffs.
Likewise, a loss to LA, while shameful, wouldn't be as "big" as a loss to Colorado.
In other words, if Edmonton only has 5 losses left to give, they had better be against the bottom feeders or the top enders, not against the other bubble teams.
Matt, this huge-huge, Level 1. Next Friday's matchup against the Dallas is a downgraded medium-huge.
Fuck that MikeW! Next week is a Low-Huge Level III. The week after might be a Medium Huge depending on how much beer is left in the house.
It's even a bigger game for Vancouver...if the Oilers lose in RT, the chance of making the playoffs falls by 4% but if Vancouver loses tonight in RT their chances fall by 8.9%.
Can we have a colour coding system to descibe the levels of hugeness? Like, is this a blue game, a yellow game, or a red game?
Or maybe a system of hugeness named after former Oilers players?
Low level huge= A Kent Nilsson
Medium level huge=A Kelly Buchberger
High level huge=A Curtis Joseph
Astronomically huge=A Mark Messier
"It's even a bigger game for Vancouver...if the Oilers lose in RT, the chance of making the playoffs falls by 4% but if Vancouver loses tonight in RT their chances fall by 8.9%."
For us Vancouver-based Oilers fans, (who had to watch the Canucks eliminate the Oil from playoff contention in 2004 in the company of hordes of Canucks fans) the schadenfreude potential of tonight's game is actually the biggest reason this game qualifies as "huge".
According to the site, he takes every team as being a 50% chance to win every game, which almost certainly overstates the OIlers chances of making the playoffs. I'm still inclined to think that this team hasn't played a big game since the Minnesota game on that 6 game road trip last year before the deadline.
BUt, of course, Goilers
Game vs. a non-playoff team can't possibly be huge-huge, Level 1, can it?
To borrow a phrase, holy fuck. I have a question. If the Canucks are up 2-0 late in the 2nd tonight, and Ethan Moreau scores with 19 seconds left in the period, is that a huge goal? Or do we have to wait for the game to be over to look back and decide if the goal was huge or meaningless or somewhere in between?
As far as I can tell, the correct usage for huge game is:
A) the next game
B) that game back a while ago that started a good stretch
Substitute in goal for game, same deal. Is that about right?
I'm not sure why they're tracking above/below .500 as if it was some kind of meaningful statistic. There are only three teams below .500 right now!
There are only three teams below .500 right now!
Yes, but if you actually look at their chart, they're using "true .500", i.e. wins vs. (L+OTL), for the above/below tracker.
in light of last night's game and the rivalry between western canada teams (calgary, edmonton, and vanvouver), i present you a new word for the glossary...
TRIVALRY - a rivalry between three teams. ex: canucks, flames, oilers. or, canadiens, leafs, sens.
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Cool website. Hey, where are the non-huge games on the remainder of the Oilers' sked? And if they're all huge, does it mean much to call any particular one huge?
Holy fuck. Are you kidding me?
While all games are important, some are still more valuable than others.
A win vs teams who are already out of it (i.e., LA) or teams who we can't catch (e.g., Dallas, Detroit, etc.) are not as valuable as wins vs teams that we can catch (e.g., Colorado). A win vs Colorado gives us points and denies them points. Denying Detroit points is irrelevant to our chances of making playoffs; denying Colorado points is necessary for our chances of making playoffs.
Likewise, a loss to LA, while shameful, wouldn't be as "big" as a loss to Colorado.
In other words, if Edmonton only has 5 losses left to give, they had better be against the bottom feeders or the top enders, not against the other bubble teams.
Matt, this huge-huge, Level 1. Next Friday's matchup against the Dallas is a downgraded medium-huge.
Fuck that MikeW! Next week is a Low-Huge Level III. The week after might be a Medium Huge depending on how much beer is left in the house.
It's even a bigger game for Vancouver...if the Oilers lose in RT, the chance of making the playoffs falls by 4% but if Vancouver loses tonight in RT their chances fall by 8.9%.
# posted by 
: February 16, 2008 1:34 pm
: February 16, 2008 1:34 pm Can we have a colour coding system to descibe the levels of hugeness? Like, is this a blue game, a yellow game, or a red game?
Or maybe a system of hugeness named after former Oilers players?
Low level huge= A Kent Nilsson
Medium level huge=A Kelly Buchberger
High level huge=A Curtis Joseph
Astronomically huge=A Mark Messier
"It's even a bigger game for Vancouver...if the Oilers lose in RT, the chance of making the playoffs falls by 4% but if Vancouver loses tonight in RT their chances fall by 8.9%."
For us Vancouver-based Oilers fans, (who had to watch the Canucks eliminate the Oil from playoff contention in 2004 in the company of hordes of Canucks fans) the schadenfreude potential of tonight's game is actually the biggest reason this game qualifies as "huge".
# posted by : February 16, 2008 1:49 pm
: February 16, 2008 1:49 pm According to the site, he takes every team as being a 50% chance to win every game, which almost certainly overstates the OIlers chances of making the playoffs. I'm still inclined to think that this team hasn't played a big game since the Minnesota game on that 6 game road trip last year before the deadline.
BUt, of course, Goilers
# posted by : February 16, 2008 2:55 pm
: February 16, 2008 2:55 pm Game vs. a non-playoff team can't possibly be huge-huge, Level 1, can it?
To borrow a phrase, holy fuck. I have a question. If the Canucks are up 2-0 late in the 2nd tonight, and Ethan Moreau scores with 19 seconds left in the period, is that a huge goal? Or do we have to wait for the game to be over to look back and decide if the goal was huge or meaningless or somewhere in between?
As far as I can tell, the correct usage for huge game is:
A) the next game
B) that game back a while ago that started a good stretch
Substitute in goal for game, same deal. Is that about right?
I'm not sure why they're tracking above/below .500 as if it was some kind of meaningful statistic. There are only three teams below .500 right now!
# posted by : February 16, 2008 5:33 pm
: February 16, 2008 5:33 pm There are only three teams below .500 right now!
Yes, but if you actually look at their chart, they're using "true .500", i.e. wins vs. (L+OTL), for the above/below tracker.
in light of last night's game and the rivalry between western canada teams (calgary, edmonton, and vanvouver), i present you a new word for the glossary...
TRIVALRY - a rivalry between three teams. ex: canucks, flames, oilers. or, canadiens, leafs, sens.
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