Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Flames Game Day
**It's not quite the stretch, but you can see it from here: the push for playoffs and seeding starts in earnest tonight for the Flames when they host San Jose (730PM MT, TSN). Objective #1: qualify for the playoffs. Objective #1A: win the NW and put off a collision with the Wings until the WC Finals.
It would appear that, with the return of Selanne, the Ducks are now looked upon as co-favourites (if not outright favourites) in the West. Since the Ducks have played 19 games with Scott Niedermayer, here, for fun, are the records of some of the WC hopefuls in their past 19:
The PK is actually decent now, it's just that it was so awful early on that the season numbers are still polluted (26 PPGA in the first 20 games, 19 PPGA in the last 30). The PP though, as he notes, is a bit of a puzzle:
It's quite possible that all of the above are factors, but the key explanation for what is happening (as distinct from why) is indeed the #2 unit. Like tPSH today, I was wondering last week what makes a successful PP, and thought I'd test one Flames-inspired hypothesis: that it's the #2 units that make the difference between the above-average (~20%) PP and the mediocre-to-poor (~15%) PP.
Conclusion: hypothesis not supported by the evidence. Using the Behind the Net figures (5-on-4 only), I looked at the top 3 PPs (PHI, MTL, DET) and CGY/VAN/CHI who were tied for 19th at 17.0%; sorted their top 6 PP forwards by PP ice time, and then compared PP scoring while the 1-2-3 fwds were on the ice (avg of the 3) to the 4-5-6 fwds.
Now, you don't want to make too much of this -- obviously there's overlap between the 1st and 2nd units at times, coaches blend personnel fairly often, etc. etc... But at the same time, it's quite impossible to deny that the Flames' PP% is dragged down in a big way by the #2 unit.
Or put another way: Iginla and Nolan are ~ never on at the same time. Iginla has about 2.3X the PP time this season as Nolan. While Iginla is on the ice, the Flames have scored 29 PP goals. While Nolan is on the ice, they've scored 2.
Why? The biggest reason is (duh) that Owen Nolan is not as good as Jarome Iginla. But some of it is probably luck; some is probably that Phaneuf is better on the PP point than Regehr (or any of the other options); some is that Tanguay is (relatively speaking) not near as good a PP performer as a 5v5 performer; some may be coaching, moon phases, who knows.
**I did catch some of the Sharks/Oil game last night... here's hoping it lulled the Sharks, however briefly, into thinking that hockey is an easy game.
Calgary 4 (Iginla x2, Moss, Nolan)
San Jose 2 (Cheechoo, Mitchell)
Go Flames.
It would appear that, with the return of Selanne, the Ducks are now looked upon as co-favourites (if not outright favourites) in the West. Since the Ducks have played 19 games with Scott Niedermayer, here, for fun, are the records of some of the WC hopefuls in their past 19:
- ANA: 12-5-2, 26pts
- SJS: 11-5-3, 25pts
- MIN: 11-7-1, 23pts
- DAL: 10-8-1, 21pts
- VAN: 9-8-2, 20pts
- COL: 9-7-3, 21pts
- NSH: 11-5-3, 25pts
- CBJ: 11-8-0, 22pts
- PHX: 12-5-2, 26pts
- CGY: 12-4-3, 27pts
- and oh yeah, DET: 14-4-1, 29pts
what seems to be holding the Flames back from being a consistently excellent club is their special teams both of which are worse than ordinary.
The PK is actually decent now, it's just that it was so awful early on that the season numbers are still polluted (26 PPGA in the first 20 games, 19 PPGA in the last 30). The PP though, as he notes, is a bit of a puzzle:
...the PP has been steadily falling in efficiency for awhile now (Iginla's slump has really hurt in this regard) and is also down in the bottom 3rd of the league (16.7%, 20th). The latter fact is a headscratcher given that the Flames have scored the 8th most ES goals in the NHL (95). Intuitively, a team that can score 5on5 should be able to score 5on4, but that hasn't happened for Keenan's Flames this year. I don't know if it has to do with personnel (is there a worse 2nd PP unit in the entire league?), coaching (it's said that Keenan almost never practices the PP) or luck (Dion Phaneuf's shooting percentage is down more than 4% relative to his career average - that translates to more than 6 lost goals over the 163 shots he's taken already).
It's quite possible that all of the above are factors, but the key explanation for what is happening (as distinct from why) is indeed the #2 unit. Like tPSH today, I was wondering last week what makes a successful PP, and thought I'd test one Flames-inspired hypothesis: that it's the #2 units that make the difference between the above-average (~20%) PP and the mediocre-to-poor (~15%) PP.
Conclusion: hypothesis not supported by the evidence. Using the Behind the Net figures (5-on-4 only), I looked at the top 3 PPs (PHI, MTL, DET) and CGY/VAN/CHI who were tied for 19th at 17.0%; sorted their top 6 PP forwards by PP ice time, and then compared PP scoring while the 1-2-3 fwds were on the ice (avg of the 3) to the 4-5-6 fwds.
Now, you don't want to make too much of this -- obviously there's overlap between the 1st and 2nd units at times, coaches blend personnel fairly often, etc. etc... But at the same time, it's quite impossible to deny that the Flames' PP% is dragged down in a big way by the #2 unit.Or put another way: Iginla and Nolan are ~ never on at the same time. Iginla has about 2.3X the PP time this season as Nolan. While Iginla is on the ice, the Flames have scored 29 PP goals. While Nolan is on the ice, they've scored 2.
Why? The biggest reason is (duh) that Owen Nolan is not as good as Jarome Iginla. But some of it is probably luck; some is probably that Phaneuf is better on the PP point than Regehr (or any of the other options); some is that Tanguay is (relatively speaking) not near as good a PP performer as a 5v5 performer; some may be coaching, moon phases, who knows.
**I did catch some of the Sharks/Oil game last night... here's hoping it lulled the Sharks, however briefly, into thinking that hockey is an easy game.
Calgary 4 (Iginla x2, Moss, Nolan)
San Jose 2 (Cheechoo, Mitchell)
Go Flames.
# posted by Matt @ 4:00 pm 
Comments:
While Iginla is on the ice, the Flames have scored 29 PP goals. While Nolan is on the ice, they've scored 2.
That's pretty incredible. As you say, luck, skill, whatnot. It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit. Hey...Dan Boyle is available right?
It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit.
I could swear we had someone who fit that mould perfectly until we declined to offer him a contract and he went to Russia....naw, Sutter would have to be crazy. I must be remembering wrong.
rumor has it that the contract involves a daily handjob from mcguire who whispers "monster" in his ear the whole time.
rumor has it that the contract involves a daily handjob from mcguire who whispers "monster" in his ear the whole time.
That's assuming this won't get in the way of the leg massage clause written into Crosby's contract.
It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit.
Isn't that what this Aucoin fellow I keep hearing about is for?
"Everybody overcommits to Phaneuf's big shot."
McGuire just gave you the answer as to why the number pp unit is so successful.
Isn't that what this Aucoin fellow I keep hearing about is for?,
Aucoin plays the first unit with Phaneuf. He's not bad, but he's not good enough to drive results on his own.
Hey Matt ... way to get a big night out of Owen N.
Please give Jarmoe a piece of your mind in your next game day post
I loved Nolan's second goal, way to put pressure on puck moving goalies.
Anyone know offhand how many teams have four different players with hattricks this season?
Could you imagine what this team would be like if we weren't always relying on secondary scoring? We'd be competing with Detroit for first in the conference!
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While Iginla is on the ice, the Flames have scored 29 PP goals. While Nolan is on the ice, they've scored 2.
That's pretty incredible. As you say, luck, skill, whatnot. It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit. Hey...Dan Boyle is available right?
It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit.
I could swear we had someone who fit that mould perfectly until we declined to offer him a contract and he went to Russia....naw, Sutter would have to be crazy. I must be remembering wrong.
rumor has it that the contract involves a daily handjob from mcguire who whispers "monster" in his ear the whole time.
rumor has it that the contract involves a daily handjob from mcguire who whispers "monster" in his ear the whole time.
That's assuming this won't get in the way of the leg massage clause written into Crosby's contract.
It sure would help if the Flames could have another offensively capable defender for the 2nd unit.
Isn't that what this Aucoin fellow I keep hearing about is for?
"Everybody overcommits to Phaneuf's big shot."
McGuire just gave you the answer as to why the number pp unit is so successful.
Isn't that what this Aucoin fellow I keep hearing about is for?,
Aucoin plays the first unit with Phaneuf. He's not bad, but he's not good enough to drive results on his own.
Hey Matt ... way to get a big night out of Owen N.
Please give Jarmoe a piece of your mind in your next game day post
# posted by 
: January 30, 2008 9:46 pm
: January 30, 2008 9:46 pm I loved Nolan's second goal, way to put pressure on puck moving goalies.
# posted by : January 30, 2008 10:07 pm
: January 30, 2008 10:07 pm Anyone know offhand how many teams have four different players with hattricks this season?
Could you imagine what this team would be like if we weren't always relying on secondary scoring? We'd be competing with Detroit for first in the conference!
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