Friday, July 06, 2007
Stop, you're breaking my heart
So since Lowe already has the #1 booked up for a while, I guess we'll have to play the World's Second Smallest Violin for the Sabres.
1. Lessons In Human Nature -- Sometimes it doesn't matter if you're telling the truth: if what you're saying is exactly what a shameless or desperate liar would say, that's just bad luck for you. "We're gonna match you no matter what, so why are you bothering?"
I'm accusing no one of nothing. Wake up, Quinn & Regier. Is there a lot of GMs talking about their RFAs with phrases like, "Well, if he gets any kind of decent offer sheet from somewhere else, we're screwed, we can't afford to keep him."?
2. The Buffalo Sabres have been permitted under the CBA to negotiate a contract with Thomas Vanek for the 2007/08 season for 371 days now. For the first 365 of those, they were the one and only team permitted to do so, all the while with the knowledge that Vanek could sign an offer sheet with another team when those 365 days were up.
No doubt they could have signed him to a Ryan Whitney deal 10 days ago, or 200 ago. They didn't. It was the Briere/Smyth mistake, with a twist (aka a mistake). Get over it, ladies.
1. Lessons In Human Nature -- Sometimes it doesn't matter if you're telling the truth: if what you're saying is exactly what a shameless or desperate liar would say, that's just bad luck for you. "We're gonna match you no matter what, so why are you bothering?"
I'm accusing no one of nothing. Wake up, Quinn & Regier. Is there a lot of GMs talking about their RFAs with phrases like, "Well, if he gets any kind of decent offer sheet from somewhere else, we're screwed, we can't afford to keep him."?
2. The Buffalo Sabres have been permitted under the CBA to negotiate a contract with Thomas Vanek for the 2007/08 season for 371 days now. For the first 365 of those, they were the one and only team permitted to do so, all the while with the knowledge that Vanek could sign an offer sheet with another team when those 365 days were up.
No doubt they could have signed him to a Ryan Whitney deal 10 days ago, or 200 ago. They didn't. It was the Briere/Smyth mistake, with a twist (aka a mistake). Get over it, ladies.
# posted by Matt @ 10:29 pm 
Comments:
This whole fiasco should serve as a wake up call to the other GMs to take of their assets.
Sometimes, the poker game will cost you a lot of money, especially when it didn't have to.
Drury goes 37-32-69 in 77 games;
Vanek goes 43-41-84 in 82 games.
They (Buffalo) thought they'd get a steal... Vanek at approx. half of Drury. Tough.
Now, when other teams want to spend 8m on a Drury or a Gomez, they better make sure they can pay ALL their players...
Now, maybe RFAs get market value... Emery, Lundquist, Cammalleri... Good luck with that cap.
Not doubt it wasn't planned this way, but the timing is great. Calgary and a few other teams have re-upped some big contracts, and teams have committed big bucks and long term to UFAs. Meanwhile, a few gems on those teams are a year away from RFA status. Those players (and agents) now have a big reason to hold off on signing extensions.
Another thing this offer sheet does is send a clear signal the Oilers are willing and able to spend. That's important if the Oil have any chance of changing players' perceptions of the team.
As for Buffalo, what a ridiculous amount of whining. They'll make an offer on an Oiler RFA--and only an Oiler--if it makes sense for Buffalo. Wow. That's special. Sabres fans should be asking why their snivelling management team doesn't always look out for the Sabres interest. If a Ranger RFA would help their team, why don't they make an offer? Why does their management team give the Rangers a free pass?
I applaud the move for a number of reasons. I'd still rather wait to spend until next summer (Ovechkin, Semin, and others), but at least Oiler fans have a GM that's willing to use every avenue to improve the team.
Buffalo is taking this awfully personally. It's just business. If some other team had a 23 year old sniper that they hadn't bothered to sign yet, Edmonton would have extended an offer sheet to him instead. Buffalo just had the "bad luck" to have an excellent player unsigned at the same time they just lost their two co-captains. Too bad for them, but it happens.
(And if any other GM refuses to trade or deal with Edmonton after this, as I've seen suggested (revenge for Lowe single-handedly starting an inflationary salary spiral again), they should be flogged for stupidity. You are paid as a GM to do what it takes within the rules to improve your team, even if it means supping with the devil--or dealing with the Oilers, if they have what you want. Making business decisions personal is a great way of putting the welfare of the team behind your petty jealousies, and that can get a man fired.)
Regier is doing a lot of posturing, he had a chance to sign Drury to a deal much like Lowe could have signed Smyth to (5 years for 25) last summer and he failed.
By turning Sabres' fans eyes to Edmonton he deflects them from his failings.
Where's the risk of an inflationary spiral? I heard there was this thing called a salary cap now. A rise in the market price for RFAs can practically only mean that the money will ultimately come out of the pocket of the UFAs, nu?
This post talks about the possibility of salary escalation and things spiralling out of control again:
http://www.sabresreport.com/blogs/?p=573
I just think it will force teams to sign up players earlier than they wanted, instead of getting a few more budget-priced years out of them before they have to deal with competition from other teams.
I don't know why Buffalo doesn't sign players during the regular season, anyway. A lot of teams have policies against negotiating with players during the playoffs, but usually talk during the season. Just seems like a silly bit of beaurocracy.
Will a single member of the hockey media pick up on Matt's second point in telling this story? That is my question.
Methinks no, too. It's too original of a thought. They'd rather pump out their "gives 110%" and "works hard in the corners" equivalency articles.
What about the simple fact its restricted 'free agency' and not restricted 'sign because we tell you to'?
Restricted free agency shouldn't represent collusion between owners to keep salaries down or force players to resign with their team..
Vanek had every right to make the choices he did.. that's the point of the system and it seems to have been taken for granted.. Buffalo needs to suck it up.
"Will a single member of the hockey media pick up on Matt's second point in telling this story? That is my question."
No they won't... which is why sites like this are popular. The others are too busy jumping on Lowe "crossed the line" angle of the story.
I'm with Matt. On top of having the opportunity to secure one of or both Drury and Briere last summer but instead they tried to low ball them. Then with Vanek they had time to sign him....
I think it's funny how quickly opinions change. When Philly made the offer sheet for Kesler (ya, Ryan freaking Kesler) Vancouver was in a collective uproar. I remember Nonis came on the Team 1040 and you could hear the steam coming out of his ears. The consensus was that the offer sheet was a punk move and that Bobby Clarke fucked the Cancuks.
Now a year later the same exact thing happens, with a player 20 times the caliber of Kesler, and everyone is telling the Sabres to suck it up.
Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying that it's funny how quickly our views on offer sheets have changed.
Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying that it's funny how quickly our views on offer sheets have changed.
You are probably right, but it didn't change on this site. Matt and I have always supported giving offer sheets to RFAs. I could never understand the reticence. And Matt actually predicted that Kesler would get an offer. I still need to get him to pick some lottery numbers for me.
I was listening to the Sabres presser, and there was one writer who was grilling Regier about why, if Vanek was so important, hadn't Regier signed him earlier?
The response was that Vanek's agent wasn't interested in negotiating early.
Whether that is true, or if the agent wasn't interested in being low-balled, I'm not sure we will ever find out for sure.
It makes you wonder whether or not the Sabres will rethink their current club policy of not negotiating contracts during the season.
James Gunner
Sports talk 550 out of Buffalo had a live interview with Vanek's agent and he said that the plan they formulated for Vanek was to get a least one offer sheet from another team before they would think about signing.
Had Buffalo not signed Vanek, the Oilers would have had to give up four first round picks. Four.
I know in a lot of cases the first round pick can turn out to be a real dud. But if the Sabres had let Vanek sign with the Oilers, wouldn't the term "mortgaging the future" be typed furiously in this comment section?
But if the Sabres had let Vanek sign with the Oilers, wouldn't the term "mortgaging the future" be typed furiously in this comment section?
Sure, but none of us think it was a serious offer.
Uh, but it was a written, non-withdrawable offer that the Oilers would have been bound by. So what exactly does "non-serious" mean in this context?
Uh, but it was a written, non-withdrawable offer that the Oilers would have been bound by.
Yeah, it's not like Lowe could have said "Haha! Just kidding!"
I wouldn't want to be paying Vanek 7 million a year and have no 1st round draft picks for the next four years (presuming they need to be consecutive years?)
Ryan Kesler... has done what to garnish a 1.9 million dollar salary. Vanek..outscored Drury and Gomez last year.. so why shouldn't he be in the same salary range. Plus it was a 7 year offer not a punk 1 year deal. That is why the Kesler and Vanek signings can't be compared. Next up Camellerri.. Let;s Go Oilers.
still amused over this completely classless move by k-blowe, and how its blown up in his face. now he cant get any ufas or rfas.
its like 1995 again in coilerville and i'm wearing a shiteating grin in calgary!!
Shit eating and Calgary. In the same sentence. Yup, that's about right.
Hey look, I'll give you $50 million for your heart. Right now. Just yank it out of your chest and the 50 mil is yours. I'll even make the offer in writing.
What? You need it to live?
What's wrong? That was a "serious" offer!
Jeebus man! An offer is only serious when there's a chance of it being accepted. Otherwise, its a chess move.
So what exactly does "non-serious" mean in this context?
It means he made it knowing Buffalo was going to match.
*exasperated sigh*
Fair enough. But the premise is valid. I still question the seriousness of an offer (no matter how valid it appears) when you're pretty much certain it will be rejected. From this point of view, you have to look a little deeper at the strategy. Why the fuck would someone do something so seemingly stupid?
Kudos to the posters at BoA, CinO, LT, etc. Here be found an excellent round table for discussion far beyond the pap that our local media spews. At least, people aren't afraid to propose radical points of view most top-side media are afraid to explore.
Yet some people here are seemingly convinced that what you see on the surface is what it is. It may be, but if we consider:
1) Lowe isn't a complete idiot.
2) A loss is sometimes a win.
3) We don't have access to the Oilers war room
Then lets discuss alternative rationale. If not, maybe you should add "sponsored by the Edmonton Journal" to this blog and be done with it.
...maybe you should add "sponsored by the Edmonton Journal" to this blog and be done with it.
Not as much as they have ripped the paper for spouting the party line like a well-trained parrot. (Especially for promoting a new arena as a cure for all the drug-using hobos that apparently infest the city core of Edmonton.)
Yeah, I have to say that I'm sorta with AG on this one. The Sabres lost their two biggest guns in the FA market and now they've got lots of hand-wringing from fans and media alike and you thought for a second that they wouldn't match this offer?
I disagree Andy - I think it was a 'serious offer' in the sense that the Oilers were prepared to pay that price if they could secure Vanek and, morevover, they would develop a new strategy to build around their new franchise player (this assumes that they had a strategy to begin with, which I doubt given Lowe's recent mea culpas).
The Oil did offer top dollar to this player. Buffalo was in a corner and had to match lest they lose three top drawer players in a week.
I agree that Buffalo pretty much had to match given what had gone on in the previous week, but I do believe Lowe was serious about revamping the roster around this player if they could get him.
Which just begs the question .... now what?
I disagree Andy - I think it was a 'serious offer' in the sense that the Oilers were prepared to pay that price if they could secure Vanek
Oh, I think they were willing to pay it if Buffalo didn't match; I just don't think they thought for a second that Buffalo wouldn't.
Andy said "Oh, I think they were willing to pay it if Buffalo didn't match; I just don't think they thought for a second that Buffalo wouldn't."
I wonder if Buffalo was given the chance to match the Drury or Briere offers and if this was knowledge that Lowe had?
I wonder if Buffalo was given the chance to match the Drury or Briere offers and if this was knowledge that Lowe had?
I don't think Drury even asked them to match the offer from the Rangers, and I know Briere didn't ask them to match the offer from the Flyers. In his mind, they had clearly cut him loose and he was interested in moving on.
I think they offered the same money to Drury, but he wanted to be closer to his home (which is insane, considering how close Buffalo and NY are to each other, but anyway).
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This whole fiasco should serve as a wake up call to the other GMs to take of their assets.
Sometimes, the poker game will cost you a lot of money, especially when it didn't have to.
Drury goes 37-32-69 in 77 games;
Vanek goes 43-41-84 in 82 games.
They (Buffalo) thought they'd get a steal... Vanek at approx. half of Drury. Tough.
Now, when other teams want to spend 8m on a Drury or a Gomez, they better make sure they can pay ALL their players...
Now, maybe RFAs get market value... Emery, Lundquist, Cammalleri... Good luck with that cap.
# posted by 
: July 07, 2007 12:39 am
: July 07, 2007 12:39 am Not doubt it wasn't planned this way, but the timing is great. Calgary and a few other teams have re-upped some big contracts, and teams have committed big bucks and long term to UFAs. Meanwhile, a few gems on those teams are a year away from RFA status. Those players (and agents) now have a big reason to hold off on signing extensions.
Another thing this offer sheet does is send a clear signal the Oilers are willing and able to spend. That's important if the Oil have any chance of changing players' perceptions of the team.
As for Buffalo, what a ridiculous amount of whining. They'll make an offer on an Oiler RFA--and only an Oiler--if it makes sense for Buffalo. Wow. That's special. Sabres fans should be asking why their snivelling management team doesn't always look out for the Sabres interest. If a Ranger RFA would help their team, why don't they make an offer? Why does their management team give the Rangers a free pass?
I applaud the move for a number of reasons. I'd still rather wait to spend until next summer (Ovechkin, Semin, and others), but at least Oiler fans have a GM that's willing to use every avenue to improve the team.
# posted by : July 07, 2007 2:09 am
: July 07, 2007 2:09 am Buffalo is taking this awfully personally. It's just business. If some other team had a 23 year old sniper that they hadn't bothered to sign yet, Edmonton would have extended an offer sheet to him instead. Buffalo just had the "bad luck" to have an excellent player unsigned at the same time they just lost their two co-captains. Too bad for them, but it happens.
(And if any other GM refuses to trade or deal with Edmonton after this, as I've seen suggested (revenge for Lowe single-handedly starting an inflationary salary spiral again), they should be flogged for stupidity. You are paid as a GM to do what it takes within the rules to improve your team, even if it means supping with the devil--or dealing with the Oilers, if they have what you want. Making business decisions personal is a great way of putting the welfare of the team behind your petty jealousies, and that can get a man fired.)
# posted by : July 07, 2007 4:30 am
: July 07, 2007 4:30 am Regier is doing a lot of posturing, he had a chance to sign Drury to a deal much like Lowe could have signed Smyth to (5 years for 25) last summer and he failed.
By turning Sabres' fans eyes to Edmonton he deflects them from his failings.
Where's the risk of an inflationary spiral? I heard there was this thing called a salary cap now. A rise in the market price for RFAs can practically only mean that the money will ultimately come out of the pocket of the UFAs, nu?
This post talks about the possibility of salary escalation and things spiralling out of control again:
http://www.sabresreport.com/blogs/?p=573
I just think it will force teams to sign up players earlier than they wanted, instead of getting a few more budget-priced years out of them before they have to deal with competition from other teams.
I don't know why Buffalo doesn't sign players during the regular season, anyway. A lot of teams have policies against negotiating with players during the playoffs, but usually talk during the season. Just seems like a silly bit of beaurocracy.
# posted by : July 07, 2007 7:58 am
: July 07, 2007 7:58 am Will a single member of the hockey media pick up on Matt's second point in telling this story? That is my question.
Methinks no, too. It's too original of a thought. They'd rather pump out their "gives 110%" and "works hard in the corners" equivalency articles.
What about the simple fact its restricted 'free agency' and not restricted 'sign because we tell you to'?
Restricted free agency shouldn't represent collusion between owners to keep salaries down or force players to resign with their team..
Vanek had every right to make the choices he did.. that's the point of the system and it seems to have been taken for granted.. Buffalo needs to suck it up.
"Will a single member of the hockey media pick up on Matt's second point in telling this story? That is my question."
No they won't... which is why sites like this are popular. The others are too busy jumping on Lowe "crossed the line" angle of the story.
I'm with Matt. On top of having the opportunity to secure one of or both Drury and Briere last summer but instead they tried to low ball them. Then with Vanek they had time to sign him....
# posted by : July 07, 2007 4:17 pm
: July 07, 2007 4:17 pm I think it's funny how quickly opinions change. When Philly made the offer sheet for Kesler (ya, Ryan freaking Kesler) Vancouver was in a collective uproar. I remember Nonis came on the Team 1040 and you could hear the steam coming out of his ears. The consensus was that the offer sheet was a punk move and that Bobby Clarke fucked the Cancuks.
Now a year later the same exact thing happens, with a player 20 times the caliber of Kesler, and everyone is telling the Sabres to suck it up.
Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying that it's funny how quickly our views on offer sheets have changed.
Not saying it's right or wrong, just saying that it's funny how quickly our views on offer sheets have changed.
You are probably right, but it didn't change on this site. Matt and I have always supported giving offer sheets to RFAs. I could never understand the reticence. And Matt actually predicted that Kesler would get an offer. I still need to get him to pick some lottery numbers for me.
I was listening to the Sabres presser, and there was one writer who was grilling Regier about why, if Vanek was so important, hadn't Regier signed him earlier?
The response was that Vanek's agent wasn't interested in negotiating early.
Whether that is true, or if the agent wasn't interested in being low-balled, I'm not sure we will ever find out for sure.
# posted by : July 07, 2007 8:38 pm
: July 07, 2007 8:38 pm It makes you wonder whether or not the Sabres will rethink their current club policy of not negotiating contracts during the season.
James Gunner
# posted by : July 07, 2007 9:09 pm
: July 07, 2007 9:09 pm Sports talk 550 out of Buffalo had a live interview with Vanek's agent and he said that the plan they formulated for Vanek was to get a least one offer sheet from another team before they would think about signing.
# posted by : July 08, 2007 7:27 am
: July 08, 2007 7:27 am Had Buffalo not signed Vanek, the Oilers would have had to give up four first round picks. Four.
I know in a lot of cases the first round pick can turn out to be a real dud. But if the Sabres had let Vanek sign with the Oilers, wouldn't the term "mortgaging the future" be typed furiously in this comment section?
# posted by : July 08, 2007 11:25 am
: July 08, 2007 11:25 am But if the Sabres had let Vanek sign with the Oilers, wouldn't the term "mortgaging the future" be typed furiously in this comment section?
Sure, but none of us think it was a serious offer.
Uh, but it was a written, non-withdrawable offer that the Oilers would have been bound by. So what exactly does "non-serious" mean in this context?
Uh, but it was a written, non-withdrawable offer that the Oilers would have been bound by.
Yeah, it's not like Lowe could have said "Haha! Just kidding!"
I wouldn't want to be paying Vanek 7 million a year and have no 1st round draft picks for the next four years (presuming they need to be consecutive years?)
# posted by : July 08, 2007 12:58 pm
: July 08, 2007 12:58 pm Ryan Kesler... has done what to garnish a 1.9 million dollar salary. Vanek..outscored Drury and Gomez last year.. so why shouldn't he be in the same salary range. Plus it was a 7 year offer not a punk 1 year deal. That is why the Kesler and Vanek signings can't be compared. Next up Camellerri.. Let;s Go Oilers.
# posted by : July 08, 2007 2:03 pm
: July 08, 2007 2:03 pm still amused over this completely classless move by k-blowe, and how its blown up in his face. now he cant get any ufas or rfas.
its like 1995 again in coilerville and i'm wearing a shiteating grin in calgary!!
# posted by : July 08, 2007 3:11 pm
: July 08, 2007 3:11 pm Shit eating and Calgary. In the same sentence. Yup, that's about right.
Hey look, I'll give you $50 million for your heart. Right now. Just yank it out of your chest and the 50 mil is yours. I'll even make the offer in writing.
What? You need it to live?
What's wrong? That was a "serious" offer!
Jeebus man! An offer is only serious when there's a chance of it being accepted. Otherwise, its a chess move.
# posted by : July 08, 2007 3:43 pm
: July 08, 2007 3:43 pm So what exactly does "non-serious" mean in this context?
It means he made it knowing Buffalo was going to match.
*exasperated sigh*
Fair enough. But the premise is valid. I still question the seriousness of an offer (no matter how valid it appears) when you're pretty much certain it will be rejected. From this point of view, you have to look a little deeper at the strategy. Why the fuck would someone do something so seemingly stupid?
Kudos to the posters at BoA, CinO, LT, etc. Here be found an excellent round table for discussion far beyond the pap that our local media spews. At least, people aren't afraid to propose radical points of view most top-side media are afraid to explore.
Yet some people here are seemingly convinced that what you see on the surface is what it is. It may be, but if we consider:
1) Lowe isn't a complete idiot.
2) A loss is sometimes a win.
3) We don't have access to the Oilers war room
Then lets discuss alternative rationale. If not, maybe you should add "sponsored by the Edmonton Journal" to this blog and be done with it.
# posted by : July 08, 2007 7:11 pm
: July 08, 2007 7:11 pm ...maybe you should add "sponsored by the Edmonton Journal" to this blog and be done with it.
Not as much as they have ripped the paper for spouting the party line like a well-trained parrot. (Especially for promoting a new arena as a cure for all the drug-using hobos that apparently infest the city core of Edmonton.)
# posted by : July 08, 2007 7:24 pm
: July 08, 2007 7:24 pm Yeah, I have to say that I'm sorta with AG on this one. The Sabres lost their two biggest guns in the FA market and now they've got lots of hand-wringing from fans and media alike and you thought for a second that they wouldn't match this offer?
I disagree Andy - I think it was a 'serious offer' in the sense that the Oilers were prepared to pay that price if they could secure Vanek and, morevover, they would develop a new strategy to build around their new franchise player (this assumes that they had a strategy to begin with, which I doubt given Lowe's recent mea culpas).
The Oil did offer top dollar to this player. Buffalo was in a corner and had to match lest they lose three top drawer players in a week.
I agree that Buffalo pretty much had to match given what had gone on in the previous week, but I do believe Lowe was serious about revamping the roster around this player if they could get him.
Which just begs the question .... now what?
# posted by : July 09, 2007 12:04 am
: July 09, 2007 12:04 am I disagree Andy - I think it was a 'serious offer' in the sense that the Oilers were prepared to pay that price if they could secure Vanek
Oh, I think they were willing to pay it if Buffalo didn't match; I just don't think they thought for a second that Buffalo wouldn't.
Andy said "Oh, I think they were willing to pay it if Buffalo didn't match; I just don't think they thought for a second that Buffalo wouldn't."
I wonder if Buffalo was given the chance to match the Drury or Briere offers and if this was knowledge that Lowe had?
# posted by : July 09, 2007 9:27 am
: July 09, 2007 9:27 am I wonder if Buffalo was given the chance to match the Drury or Briere offers and if this was knowledge that Lowe had?
I don't think Drury even asked them to match the offer from the Rangers, and I know Briere didn't ask them to match the offer from the Flyers. In his mind, they had clearly cut him loose and he was interested in moving on.
# posted by : July 09, 2007 10:00 am
: July 09, 2007 10:00 am I think they offered the same money to Drury, but he wanted to be closer to his home (which is insane, considering how close Buffalo and NY are to each other, but anyway).
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