Sunday, July 01, 2007
Patience, grasshopper
Tanguay - Lombardi - Iginla
Huselius - Langkow - Moss
Primeau - Conroy - TBA
Nilson - Yelle - TBA
Regehr - Warrener
Phaneuf - Aucoin
Giordano - Hale
Kipper
McElhinney
Despite where we see the TBAs here, the most likely Flames' UFA signing in the next couple of days is a defenceman. I suppose it could be someone in the Danny Markov/Andy Sutton tier (see Mirtle's casual rankings), but more likely it's someone lower down: a player who's not too old yet who might just have another little leap in him. You know, this year's Andrei Zyuzin, if that had worked out at all.
My value pick here is Stephane Robidas. Played 18:04 a night for the Stars, one of the best defensive teams in the league. He got pushed down the depth chart when everyone was healthy, but that wasn't that often. And today, the fact that he scored 0 goals last year is a blessing, not a curse.
The worst contract will probably go to Stuart (he's gonna get paid like he's dominant and an offensive threat, but he's neither). Accordingly, I'll say he's not going to California, since all 3 of the Cali GMs seem pretty smart. Back to the EC, it says here. Also, I'll correct myself: the worst contract for a D-man will be the 5-year deal that goes to the guy who's a healthy scratch before the end of Year 2 (I just don't know which guy it is yet).
At forward, the value pick for any other team is Gelinas: still an excellent EV player, and knows a thing or two to show the kids as well. That's no good for the Flames, though, unless they plan on reacquiring Mike Commodore and Ville Niemenen as well. Value pick for the Flames is our old friend D-Vo: Radek Dvorak's counting numbers are the worst thing he has going for him. If the Flames didn't have 14 centres coming into training camp, I'd love Todd White too.
Token contrarianism: the worst contract at forward is going to Chris Drury. He is a very nice player and takes a hell of a faceoff, but he is not actually made of magic (he only appears to be). His counting numbers, like everyone else on the Sabres, were torqued this season by that crazy synergy (and coach's approval) they had going there. He's going to get paid to be someone he's not.
Final note: I may not be near the computer when Smytty signs his long-term deal, so I'll save you some suspense. Just assume that the link to the TSN story on the deal is beneath the header, "Imagine what he would have gotten if he was an elite player!"
# posted by Matt @ 8:25 am 
Comments:
Like Drury, I don't think any of the so-called "tier 1" FA's are worth what they're (likely) going to get today. Gomez for 7M? Briere for 7M? Souray for 6M?
Overpay city.
Robidas is an interesting suggestion.
Ditto Robidas, I still don't believe people are saying minimum 6 million for Gomez and Drury...christ...wasn't there some sort of lockout thing a while back over this?
TSN is reporting that Iginla is about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension at $7 mil a year.
What if KLo had signed Smytty to an 'overpay' of 5.5mil last year, and then traded him? Yeah, its cold, but what would Smyth be worth already signed at what looks to be at least a million per year lower than what he's going to get.
Wonder what a Pronger signed to 4 years at 6.25 million per would have gotten last year at the trading deadline, or right now...I wonder.
And, oh yeah, book it - Souray is going to get huge money and it will be a disaster.
Gaston Gingras. Except he can hit the net.
Despite where we see the TBAs here, the most likely Flames' UFA signing in the next couple of days is a defenceman.
Nice call Matt, as Flames sign Sarich. I guess that moves Warrener down to 5/6 and probably puts Hale in the Press box.
Souray is going to get huge money and it will be a disaster.
Amen to that. A poor man's Bryan McCabe. McCabe has the skill set but is better, and even he's overpaid. Souray's going to get even more and look positively ugly way sooner than anyone thinks
Sarich?
Damn, terrific pickup. A significantly better version of Stuart I think. And a bunch cheaper.
This signing and the Rivet one strike me as crazy discounts relative to the rest of them.
There's certainly a lot of deals that seem very hurried this year. A lot of "get him some no one else can get him" type stuff. 7 and 8 million dollar contracts flying left and right. I'm pleased enough that Sundin has a winger on the (comparatively) cheap now. Blues getting Kariya is interesting too.
I recommend that Oilers fans pretend that the Avs are still the Nordiques and try to convince themselves that Smyth is playing in the Eastern conference still. Or heck, maybe even in the Prince of Wales conference, to remove the heartache chronologically as well as geographically.
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Like Drury, I don't think any of the so-called "tier 1" FA's are worth what they're (likely) going to get today. Gomez for 7M? Briere for 7M? Souray for 6M?
Overpay city.
Robidas is an interesting suggestion.
Ditto Robidas, I still don't believe people are saying minimum 6 million for Gomez and Drury...christ...wasn't there some sort of lockout thing a while back over this?
TSN is reporting that Iginla is about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension at $7 mil a year.
# posted by 
: July 01, 2007 11:48 am
: July 01, 2007 11:48 am What if KLo had signed Smytty to an 'overpay' of 5.5mil last year, and then traded him? Yeah, its cold, but what would Smyth be worth already signed at what looks to be at least a million per year lower than what he's going to get.
# posted by : July 01, 2007 12:12 pm
: July 01, 2007 12:12 pm Wonder what a Pronger signed to 4 years at 6.25 million per would have gotten last year at the trading deadline, or right now...I wonder.
And, oh yeah, book it - Souray is going to get huge money and it will be a disaster.
Gaston Gingras. Except he can hit the net.
Despite where we see the TBAs here, the most likely Flames' UFA signing in the next couple of days is a defenceman.
Nice call Matt, as Flames sign Sarich. I guess that moves Warrener down to 5/6 and probably puts Hale in the Press box.
# posted by : July 01, 2007 2:41 pm
: July 01, 2007 2:41 pm Souray is going to get huge money and it will be a disaster.
Amen to that. A poor man's Bryan McCabe. McCabe has the skill set but is better, and even he's overpaid. Souray's going to get even more and look positively ugly way sooner than anyone thinks
# posted by : July 01, 2007 3:14 pm
: July 01, 2007 3:14 pm Sarich?
Damn, terrific pickup. A significantly better version of Stuart I think. And a bunch cheaper.
This signing and the Rivet one strike me as crazy discounts relative to the rest of them.
There's certainly a lot of deals that seem very hurried this year. A lot of "get him some no one else can get him" type stuff. 7 and 8 million dollar contracts flying left and right. I'm pleased enough that Sundin has a winger on the (comparatively) cheap now. Blues getting Kariya is interesting too.
I recommend that Oilers fans pretend that the Avs are still the Nordiques and try to convince themselves that Smyth is playing in the Eastern conference still. Or heck, maybe even in the Prince of Wales conference, to remove the heartache chronologically as well as geographically.
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