Tuesday, June 26, 2007

 

Still here!

Howdy! I "missed" most of the "excitement" of draft weekend, as I was golfing some of the jewels of the Windermere Valley with 7 of my peers. There was much consumption of beer, scotch, and tube-shaped pork products, and well as a healthy dose of getting rivered.

However, we did manage to catch wind of the Aucoin acquisition and the 1st-rounder. On Backlund, I second MetroGnome's take (in a word, I give it a Borat-style niiiice).

On Aucoin: everyone is obviously right to call it a calculated risk. If he stays healthy (or even 3/4 healthy), he can probably replace Hamrlik's contributions (Hammer played 126 games in 2 seasons, scoring 7 goals in each), although he's less physical.

Time -- or is it inflation? -- is an amazing thing, because even though Aucoin has suffered through two lousy, injury-plagued seasons, his contract is certainly no worse now than it was when he signed it, and probably quite a bit better. In August 2005, $4M x 4yrs was a big gamble on a guy who may or may not be able to play huge minutes in all situations and be a capable PP QB. In July 2007, $4M x 2yrs for veteran D-man who you shouldn't have to shelter is pretty much what it costs.

When you look at what Timonen got, and what guys like Hamrlik and Danny Markov are going to get (let alone Rafalski, Stuart, Hannan), and even what guys like Aaron Miller are going to get, what else do you expect. (It's been, what, 6 months since the Staios extension of $2.9Mx4, and that already looks like a very good deal for the Oilers).

As such, I really think the Keenan factor in this acquisition is being overblown. For one, Keenan has ties to half the veteran players in the league. And secondly, there just weren't/aren't a ton of options for the team looking for a decent vet on a short-term deal. (If you have a list of available or acquirable players in mind who can provide what Aucoin does for less than $4Mx2, lay it on me.)

The one semi-related thing about this that makes me quite happy is that the Flames won't be signing Stuart. He is about to get overpaid for what he brings to the table, and I'm glad it's not going to be by Calgary.

Brad Stuart is an interesting player. It's easy to see why he was drafted 3rd overall; he's skilled. He can skate, he can pass, and he has a hard shot. He's also smart: he's positionally sound, he tends to make the high percentage play, and he breaks up scoring chances with decent regularity in the exact manner that a coach would prescribe it (or that experience dictates). And he's tough: not afraid to mix it up, he certainly doesn't play scared.

What Brad Stuart is not, in my limited and humble opinion, is gifted. Most of us could name a list of players who are simply more than the sum of their parts (skills), and it's not just a "heart" thing. Ryan Smyth has a pretty weak shot that's not pinpoint accurate, and he's not a great skater, but he's one hell of a hockey player. On the flip side, we all know lots of players who are less than the sum of their parts, ranging from outright draft busts all the way to the Derek Morris/Robert Lang types who, despite being perennially capable, just seem like they should be giving you more.

Brad Stuart, to my eye, is exactly the sum of his parts. Chris Pronger is another high draft choice who is big and skilled, who can make a big hit, shoot, make a nice pass, stop a 2-on-1, etc. But anyone who has watched him for any length of time knows that he is so much more than that; it's difficult, and does him a disservice, to describe him "scouting report-style". He's a gifted hockey player. There's no comparison between him and Stuart, and it's not because of the 4-inch height difference.

For $6M x 7 years, or $7M x 6, or whatever giant deal Stuart is about to sign, I expect gifted. He might get better -- again, he's smart, and he's going to keep learning -- but then again, his offense regressed this year, and if he scores 10 goals more than once over the term of his next deal, I'd be surprised.

-----------------------------------------

A short follow-up to my post on Timonen/Hartnell: mc79hockey and Benjamin both had brief takes on the situation that jumped off from mine.

Thinking about it for the past few days, I still find it hard to comprehend that these players were one of:
Nevertheless, it would seem that one of these was the case. Doesn't that mean they were getting bad, or at least questionable, advice from their agents? Like Tom says, the players as a whole get the same amount of $$ no matter what contracts are signed by who; does anyone really have an interest in setting the salary bar for a particular kind of player high and early?

The answer to that question is Yes: the "anyone" is an agent with relatively few clients, one of whom is comparable to the player signing early. Like, say, Bill Zito Jr., who is the agent for both Timonen and Brian Rafalski. Incentives matter, indeed.

Comments:

Like Tom says, the players as a whole get the same amount of $$ no matter what contracts are signed by who; does anyone really have an interest in setting the salary bar for a particular kind of player high and early?

Well sure, given that it's a cap world. There is going to be less money around in two weeks, right? Why not take your chunk of change early, have time to set up your wife and kids for the fall, and relax?
 


I should have spelled this out explicitly in the main post, but: No.

Looking at the recent history of top-tier UFA signings, both pre- and post-cap, I think it is clear almost to the point of self-evidence that the biggest names get excellent, excellent contracts.

In my estimation (and especially given the important role that excellent defencemen played on this season's successful teams), there's no damn way that Timonen wouldn't have gotten the same or better deal on July 1.

Some teams couldn't afford these two guys specifically, but there are literally 30 teams looking for what they can bring. If they felt pressured at all to accept a deal last week, that borders on malpractice by the agent.
 


Welcome back, Matt!

there's no damn way that Timonen wouldn't have gotten the same or better deal on July 1.

Agreed. I have no idea why signing early and removing any inflationary competition appeals to Timonen. I guess I have to look at the 6-year term, which is lengthy, but still, I don't see how they rationalize that Philly is both willing to outspend all comers AND throw in a first-round pick as well.

A curious proceeding, that's for sure.
 


If they felt pressured at all to accept a deal last week, that borders on malpractice by the agent.

You have no evidence to prove this other than the fact that they signed early. There could be ten or twenty reasons why both decided to sign early, all of which are probably reasonable and rational. A good agent is in sync with their client's needs/desires. If, for whatever reasons, Timonen and Hartnell wanted to sign early, it's their agent's job to make it happen.

Looking at the recent history of top-tier UFA signings, both pre- and post-cap, I think it is clear almost to the point of self-evidence that the biggest names get excellent, excellent contracts.

I'd say Timonen and Hartnell did get excellent, excellent contracts, by any standard.
 


"As such, I really think the Keenan factor in this acquisition is being overblown"



> I dont know if you watched the draft,but they interviewed sutter and keenan together and sutter said when asked about the trade,
"Yes this was his(keenan) FIRST trade". I dont know about you, but I would be scared if I was a Flamer!


JC
 


How about the deal sending Tkachuk back to St. Louis. It quite literally makes him a rental player.
 


Incentives Matter?

Given that there is no NHL franchise in San Fransisco yet perhaps the City of Brotherly Love was the most logical alternative for the couple. Alberta cities were obviously not at the top of the list.

Let's get the rumour mill rolling!

Incentives indeed.
 


Looking at the recent history of top-tier UFA signings, both pre- and post-cap, I think it is clear almost to the point of self-evidence that the biggest names get excellent, excellent contracts.

In my estimation (and especially given the important role that excellent defencemen played on this season's successful teams), there's no damn way that Timonen wouldn't have gotten the same or better deal on July 1.

I think this is surely true as well. To me, that just says the players aren't all that concerned about getting the best deal possible. Tons of players sign contract extensions when they could have gotten more as a free agent. I think players will sign a fair contract, a contract that approaches what they would get as a free agent, a contract that reflects a proper respect for the quality of contribution the player can make.

As soon as the players agreed to talk to the Flyers, they had a chance to sign them assuming good faith all the way around. The Flyers merely got to pitch first. Holmgren was selling the franchise, the rebuilding program, the role envisaged for the pair of them. They liked what they heard.

How much do they demand? What is a fair offer? How much would they have gotten on the open market? I don't think there are easy answers to those questions.

What contract leaves both sides with smiles on their faces? Both players got staggering amounts of money. If it wasn't what they would have received on July 1st, so what? They were satisfied and that's all the Flyers had to accomplish to sign them.
 


Not much doubt that's how it went, Tom. Yet I still have trouble envisioning the part where after selling the players on the city, program, etc. Holmgren says, "Oh, and P.S. -- you need to sign before the draft so I can give away a 1st-rounder, or else I'm going after Brad Stuart and Slava Kozlov on July 1 instead. Your choice."
 


Not much doubt that's how it went, Tom. Yet I still have trouble envisioning the part where after selling the players on the city, program, etc. Holmgren says, "Oh, and P.S. -- you need to sign before the draft so I can give away a 1st-rounder, or else I'm going after Brad Stuart and Slava Kozlov on July 1 instead. Your choice."

I think this happens for sure. The Canucks lost out on Gretzky exactly this way. Wayne wanted "time to think it over" after the Canucks met all his demands. When he would not sign right away, they yanked the offer rather than let him use it to get more from the Rangers.

I don't think teams should get into auctions, particularly when they do not really know what other teams have offered. Do they believe the agent if he says team X has offered 10% more?

If they did not behave this way, players would never get signed before the free agent date. The Isles may have offered Ryan Smyth $49 MM over seven years. They are nuts if they don't have that offer expire before July 1st. Otherwise, Smyth won't sign it until he checks out the other offers. If that's going to be the case, why bother to talk now?
 

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