Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Handicapping - West edition
The table above forms about 90% of the basis for my Western Conference predictions. It is the standings summaries for the eight WC playoff teams, using only games played amongst themselves. I have shown all OT/SO results as ties. With a nod to The Forechecker, I have pinked the #1 ranked team in each category and blued the #8.It's not quite as elegant as I'd like; for one, I haven't pulled out empty net goals, which slightly pollutes the GF/GA and +/- columns. To save myself a few minutes work, I also did not exclude 4-on-4 (or 4-on-3) OT goals, which seems kinda stupid since I'm still calling the games where those events happened "ties", but there you have it. The overall picture is still a substantially accurate portrayal of how the 36 (or 32 in the case of DET/NSH) games between other WC playoff teams went. So...
Nashville over San Jose in 6. There sure isn't much to choose from between these teams. The Predators' PK was a lot worse against the WC8 than overall (85.8%, 3rd/30), which is a pretty bad omen in this matchup -- although the Sharks' PP was a lot less successful vs. the WC8 than overall (22.4%, 2nd/30) as well. It doesn't look like the Preds' PP should dominate the Sharks' PK, or vice-versa.
Nashville's +/- is about half a goal per game better, though. The only decisive result in the four H2H matchups this season was a 5-0 Preds win in Nashville, where all 5 goals were scored at EV (hey, look -- that's more than half of the difference between these teams' +/- right there!). And despite recent evidence to the contrary (or inconclusive, if you prefer), I think the Preds are a better team with Peter Forsberg than without him. Add in the extra home game if need be, and I'm ready to give this one to Nashville (maybe next year, Joe).
Dallas over Vancouver in 7. Very, very close matchup, although certainly one of them could run off four straight one-goal wins. I'm giving it to Dallas on the strength of better special teams (and in the case of the PP, much better). Neither team can score 5v5.
I understand the desire to hand this one to the Canucks based on the goaltending matchup. There are questions about Turco's stomach for the postseason (his .868SV% v. the Avs last year is what it is), but let's say that Turco performs exactly to form -- which is roughly speaking, an average goalie who is plenty adequate for a good defensive team (.910SV% this season, .898 last season when the Stars finished 2nd in the WC by a mile).
Luongo is better. He's probably the best there is. He also started 76 games this year, so his unquestionable level of awesomeness should be reflected nicely in the Canucks' team stats. It's already factored in. If you think that Luongo will be awesome-plus in the playoffs, or that Turco will go from regular season averageness to postseason putridness, then fine -- but otherwise, it looks to me like the Stars are the better team at keeping the puck out of their own net.
[Supplement: Canucks played 18 of the 36 games above after Christmas, well-known as the start of the Excellent Canucks era. In regulation, their record was 5-4-9; they had 44GF/41GA and were +8 (better than the 36-game picture), but had a 10.0%PP and an 85.4%PK (slightly worse).]
[Bonus stat: check out the absurd, inexplicable +/- H/R Splits for the Sedins. As I mentioned to a friend when I noticed this the first time, "And here I thought it was just the Flames who couldn't check the twins with last change."]
Anaheim over Minnesota in 5. See top: the Ducks are superb against quality opposition. Score lots of goals, allow very few; strong PP, strong PK.
Lemaire's a good coach, but he won't be outwitting Randy Carlyle (hey, the guy who once got 28 goals out of Joffrey Lupul should probably be the Jack Adams winner in perpetuity). More subjectively, I just don't see "How can we minimize the effectiveness of Marian Gaborik?" as being a question that the Ducks will have much trouble answering.
Mirtle has picked the Wild to be the Last Team Standing. Looking at the sked, I'll go the other way, and guess First Team Eliminated.
Detroit vs. Calgary. I'll address this one tomorrow. The pick will be Calgary. Enjoy the playoffs, or as they were once known, FUCKING PLAYOFFS!!!!
# posted by Matt @ 2:09 pm 
Comments:
I know we can sit here all day and do this with every team - but I will point out that one of those Canucks losses in their 5-4-9 record after Christmas was a loss to Dallas, in which they were winning 1-0 with less than a minute left and were scored on in not one, but two 5-3's. One to tie it with 30 seconds left. One in overtime to lose the game. It was also a game were the Canucks outpenalized Dallas 8-0.
Taking that game out of the equation raises the Canucks post-Christmas record to 5-3-9 - a 62.5% winning percentage. Like I said I understand we can do this with every team for every loss, but how many games played out like that one. Two separate 5-3's in the last minute and overtime. 8-0 penalties.
I just really feel alot of those stats are skewed because of the Canucks terrible 1st half.
Canucks in 6
in which they were winning 1-0 with less than a minute left and were scored on in not one, but two 5-3's.
A-mouse is right again. I think in the playoffs they count that as a win. Why not go ahead and give us the other 13 excuses so I can properly project the 'Nuck chances?
The "Excellent Canucks Era" (ECE) belongs in the Glossary, and I'm really, really sad about missing out on the FUCKING PLAYOFFS.
I think a possible explanation for the Sedins' plus-minus differences at home and on the road is that Vigneault likes to match the Sedins up again the opponent's top offensive line.
So at home with last change they're usually matching up against Iginla, Gaborik, Selanne, etc., and so they end up backchecking more, spending less time in the offensive end, and also getting scored on more often by these guys.
"The table above forms about 90% of the basis for my Western Conference predictions."
Not quite sure I grasp the logic of comparing, say, Anaheim's record against Detroit, and not to, say, Edmonton, to determine the winner of Anaheim versus Minnesota.
I understand the desire to hand this one to the Canucks based on the goaltending matchup. There are questions about Turco's stomach for the postseason...
Turco has to have a hot playoff run sometime... doesn't he?
Oh please don't be this time.
Well it took the NHL 42 minutes to blow it's first major call of the playoffs. Bravo.
What call was that Andy?
The no-goal on Crosby. No way that's a kicking motion. Even Muckler looked incredulous, and it helped his team.
One angle actually looks like a kicking motion but it's not conclusive. Yeah the Sens got a break on it, or did they? It should have been a no goal anyways on the goalie interference (that wasn't called) so it worked out in the end.
It should have been a no goal anyways on the goalie interference (that wasn't called) so it worked out in the end.
Goalie interference? Uh, where? Driving to the net because the puck is there is not goaltender interference.
Simpson looks really good on HNIC. Let's hope he stays there.
What is with the Oilers staff, anyway? MacT was scouting in Nashville tonight, too.
It was also a game were the Canucks outpenalized Dallas 8-0.
This happens a lot to the Canucks; they're one of the most penalized teams in the NHL. They probably get all those penalties because they don't have a lot of speed. They're easily the slowest team in the NW division, but I don't think it'll kill 'em against Dallas. Matt's right; if Turco and Luongo saw off then the 'nucks are in trouble, Bobby Lu has got to outplay the Turc because thats how Vancouver wins.
Sharks just beat the Preds in double OT. While I think that SJ is the better team, how good would it have been for the Nashville home crowd to watch a double OT WIN?! Let's hope that series goes 7.
Sens homer that I am, I agree with Andy. That quick answer by Crosby could've gotten them back into what was at that point a pretty much one-sided game.
I'm bracing for karmic retribution down the road.
Ugh at the refereeing so far this playoffs. Ugh ugh ugh. Ugh ugh ughity ugh. This is brutal and awful, just like it was last year and just like it will be next year. But hey, the NHL is so popular south of the border that this total ineptitude won't hurt. Oh, wait.
Look at the replay....Emery is actually interferred with twice. Hell, Crosby pushed him into the net along with the puck. Alas, 'tis only my opinion.
And Simpson? Ironic to listen to his analysis of the powerplay. I couldn't help laughing hysterically. Maybe we can make this move permanent? Trade him for Hrudey!
Wow, so that was you who left that crazy message on my answering machine.
Apparently I left crazy messages on several people's answering machines :-) But if I don't remember it, it never happened, as far as I'm concerned.
Matt, thanks for the bonus Sedin(2) +/- tidbit. That is just fricking ridiculous. It hurts my head to try and figure out how that is working.
To my eye, although the sample size is small, most teams went power versus Sedins this year at home. When in Vancouver, if as cjl suggests, Alain puts Sedins out against power, then the results should be relatively the same. It just defies logic.
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I know we can sit here all day and do this with every team - but I will point out that one of those Canucks losses in their 5-4-9 record after Christmas was a loss to Dallas, in which they were winning 1-0 with less than a minute left and were scored on in not one, but two 5-3's. One to tie it with 30 seconds left. One in overtime to lose the game. It was also a game were the Canucks outpenalized Dallas 8-0.
Taking that game out of the equation raises the Canucks post-Christmas record to 5-3-9 - a 62.5% winning percentage. Like I said I understand we can do this with every team for every loss, but how many games played out like that one. Two separate 5-3's in the last minute and overtime. 8-0 penalties.
I just really feel alot of those stats are skewed because of the Canucks terrible 1st half.
Canucks in 6
# posted by 
: April 11, 2007 2:43 pm
: April 11, 2007 2:43 pm in which they were winning 1-0 with less than a minute left and were scored on in not one, but two 5-3's.
A-mouse is right again. I think in the playoffs they count that as a win. Why not go ahead and give us the other 13 excuses so I can properly project the 'Nuck chances?
The "Excellent Canucks Era" (ECE) belongs in the Glossary, and I'm really, really sad about missing out on the FUCKING PLAYOFFS.
I think a possible explanation for the Sedins' plus-minus differences at home and on the road is that Vigneault likes to match the Sedins up again the opponent's top offensive line.
So at home with last change they're usually matching up against Iginla, Gaborik, Selanne, etc., and so they end up backchecking more, spending less time in the offensive end, and also getting scored on more often by these guys.
# posted by : April 11, 2007 5:39 pm
: April 11, 2007 5:39 pm "The table above forms about 90% of the basis for my Western Conference predictions."
Not quite sure I grasp the logic of comparing, say, Anaheim's record against Detroit, and not to, say, Edmonton, to determine the winner of Anaheim versus Minnesota.
# posted by : April 11, 2007 5:48 pm
: April 11, 2007 5:48 pm I understand the desire to hand this one to the Canucks based on the goaltending matchup. There are questions about Turco's stomach for the postseason...
Turco has to have a hot playoff run sometime... doesn't he?
Oh please don't be this time.
Well it took the NHL 42 minutes to blow it's first major call of the playoffs. Bravo.
What call was that Andy?
The no-goal on Crosby. No way that's a kicking motion. Even Muckler looked incredulous, and it helped his team.
One angle actually looks like a kicking motion but it's not conclusive. Yeah the Sens got a break on it, or did they? It should have been a no goal anyways on the goalie interference (that wasn't called) so it worked out in the end.
It should have been a no goal anyways on the goalie interference (that wasn't called) so it worked out in the end.
Goalie interference? Uh, where? Driving to the net because the puck is there is not goaltender interference.
Simpson looks really good on HNIC. Let's hope he stays there.
What is with the Oilers staff, anyway? MacT was scouting in Nashville tonight, too.
It was also a game were the Canucks outpenalized Dallas 8-0.
This happens a lot to the Canucks; they're one of the most penalized teams in the NHL. They probably get all those penalties because they don't have a lot of speed. They're easily the slowest team in the NW division, but I don't think it'll kill 'em against Dallas. Matt's right; if Turco and Luongo saw off then the 'nucks are in trouble, Bobby Lu has got to outplay the Turc because thats how Vancouver wins.
# posted by : April 11, 2007 9:56 pm
: April 11, 2007 9:56 pm Sharks just beat the Preds in double OT. While I think that SJ is the better team, how good would it have been for the Nashville home crowd to watch a double OT WIN?! Let's hope that series goes 7.
# posted by : April 11, 2007 9:58 pm
: April 11, 2007 9:58 pm Sens homer that I am, I agree with Andy. That quick answer by Crosby could've gotten them back into what was at that point a pretty much one-sided game.
I'm bracing for karmic retribution down the road.
Ugh at the refereeing so far this playoffs. Ugh ugh ugh. Ugh ugh ughity ugh. This is brutal and awful, just like it was last year and just like it will be next year. But hey, the NHL is so popular south of the border that this total ineptitude won't hurt. Oh, wait.
Look at the replay....Emery is actually interferred with twice. Hell, Crosby pushed him into the net along with the puck. Alas, 'tis only my opinion.
And Simpson? Ironic to listen to his analysis of the powerplay. I couldn't help laughing hysterically. Maybe we can make this move permanent? Trade him for Hrudey!
Wow, so that was you who left that crazy message on my answering machine.
# posted by : April 12, 2007 2:18 am
: April 12, 2007 2:18 am Apparently I left crazy messages on several people's answering machines :-) But if I don't remember it, it never happened, as far as I'm concerned.
Matt, thanks for the bonus Sedin(2) +/- tidbit. That is just fricking ridiculous. It hurts my head to try and figure out how that is working.
To my eye, although the sample size is small, most teams went power versus Sedins this year at home. When in Vancouver, if as cjl suggests, Alain puts Sedins out against power, then the results should be relatively the same. It just defies logic.
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