The Mayor is reading Jan Reimer's book "How I Stood Up to the Edmonton Oilers and Haven't been Heard from Since."

Excellent read.
 

Smyth's going to get a lot more money on the free market than the Oilers were willing to give him.

This is a really weak argument.

Just because he is going to get more from some loose-pocket GM, doesn't mean that it would be a smart move to give him more. GM's working within "Free" markets that are as regulated as the NHL's regularly overvalue players.

As I said over at MC's place, I think Smyth, playing in a contract year, seriously increased his value by following up a very good season with a great season (his first time ever posting back to back 30 goal seasons). It was a treat to watch.

But, it remains to be seen whether his “actual value” (to the extent such a thing can ever be measured) will be closer to his perceived value from last summer, or his Free Agent value next summer.

Afterall, prior to this season Smyth never averaged a point/game, only had three 30+ goal seasons (and never back to back), only 4 60+ point seasons (never back to back), only 6 seasons of 70+ games played.

Hey, maybe Smyth is a really, really, really late bloomer and he will just keep on trucking at his current production for the next 5 years; but given his age, style of play, injury history, etc., it seems more likely to me that 2008-2009 will see something closer to the 2001-2002 Ryan Smyth than the 2006-2007 edition.
 

Yeah his production could tail off, BUT he could also score 25 goals on the POWERPLAY alone next year. As someone over at Tom Benjamin's place mentioned, because of the strength of the WC this last few years, WC players are generally undervalued compared league wide. In a relatively weaker EC I'd predict Smyth's counting numbers to be up at least 10% and that should put him in the point per game class. I guess you can argue if thats worth 5.5 mil/year. There does exist the possibility that this was a good deal BOTH for the Oilers and Smyth. Smyth will get more points and more money, and the Oilers will get his salary and cap room to sign a younger player.
 

Hey, maybe Smyth is a really, really, really late bloomer and he will just keep on trucking at his current production for the next 5 years; but given his age, style of play, injury history, etc., it seems more likely to me that 2008-2009 will see something closer to the 2001-2002 Ryan Smyth than the 2006-2007 edition.

If you have the metrics to prove that point, I'd be happy to see it.
 

And I'd be happy to see your metrics supporting the opposite?

I think the only metrics that can solve this are a wager. I love wagers. The ultimate argument solver.
 

I bet $100 that after a spring and summer of non-stop bitching by disillusioned fans, next year the Oil start the season 10-2-2 and all the haters will predictably shut up and jump on the "Smid for Norris" campaign.
 

Anonymous brings up a good point, one I'd forgotten about. The difference in scoring between the conferences is certainly significant.
 

Yeah, but so is the difference in scoring for players when the played in Edmonton and after they left (Grier, Marchant, Guerin, Weight, Carter, etc.).

It is ridiculously rare to see a player get better numbers after leaving Edmonton than they had here. Maybe it is because they were put in more favourable positions here. Maybe they got more playing time. Maybe it's the ice. Maybe it is Craig Simpson's hair. Whatever it is, it can't be ignored.
 

"Smid for Norris"

Thats funny.
 

I bet $100 that after a spring and summer of non-stop bitching by disillusioned fans, next year the Oil start the season 10-2-2 and all the haters will predictably shut up and jump on the "Smid for Norris" campaign.

I can't tell if this is parody or not.
 

Personally, I'm jumping on the Craig Simpson's hair for Jack Adams Trophy.

Is the hair of an assistant coach eligible?
 

"I think the only metrics that can solve this are a wager. I love wagers. The ultimate argument solver."

What would you like? No penny wagers, we're both men. I can direct it offshore if you'd like. Are you sure, buddy? I'll take all your words on Ryan Smyth and convert them into numbers, easy as beans. I can have something up on the IOF sidebar within the hour if that's the way you want to go.

Only if you're sure though, sac. No goading here. (Our buddy Biff Slipper wouldn't be so gracious :D )

BTW: Where the hell did LT's blog go?
 

Shremp for the Hart Trophy.

Valium prescriptions for Dennis, Vic, Grabia and Mudcrutch.
 

Chris said...

Take two of these blue ones. They'll make Kevin "Billy Beane" Lowe's asshole taste like sweet raspberries!

First off Chris, that's kind of creepy. Secondly, raspberries aren't meant to be sweet. And thirdly, not everyone is a natural born prison bitch.

Now put on some purple lipstick and go wait in the corner, bitch.

Now.

I SAID NOW!!!
 

Hmm. I was going to suggest that Chris start on anti-psychotic medication after reading his "Shremp (he's so fucking good, Chris doesn't how to spell his name!) for Hart" line but Vic's is a lot funnier.

I hope that the Oilogosphere doesn't end up like all those other -ogospheres, with one of the members sending people to break the legs of people who don't pay up on their bets. It's just sad.

Also, Vic - if I can slip into the role of Dennis for a moment - I've forgotten my blogger password. Any chance that you guys can set the site so that I can post by typing in a name?
 

Breaking legs? Damn, I'm intrigued, which -ogospheres are these?

As for the Blogger thing, just click the button for forgotten password or open a new account, mc. Am I missing something?

As well, I'm loving the way that this Smyth trade has fractured Oiler fandom in general, and the blog thing specifically.

As a hockey decision this is just remarkably bad imo, and the fact that so many people can't see that fact really fuels the fire for me. This must be what it is like to be a Coyotes fan. Ah well.

I have a feeling like I'm 20 years old again, been on a date with a nice girl but ended up finding trouble. Lucky enough to win the fight, then stole the guy's leather jacket. Now it's the next morning and the jacket doesn't really fit and is kind of ugly anyways. And damn, you just realize that the relationship with the girl is over.

Just a strange vibe somehow. Know what I mean?

Step 1, leaving Oiler fandom, and I did that weeks ago. Step 2, leaving Oiler fans ... strange shit, but I'm having trouble letting you fuckers go quietly. Don't know why, and sorry 'bout that. :)
 

Mr. Ferrari,
We are just trying to figure out what really goes on at Kevin Wonka's Chocolate Factory. Some of us find it frustrating. I am glad you have moved on.
 

As well, I'm loving the way that this Smyth trade has fractured Oiler fandom in general, and the blog thing specifically.

For me, at least, there's a bit of an underlying thing with why I'm so choked. I'm convinced that it means that this team will just not pay market value for anyone elite. Not a soul. If they were going to do it for anyone, they were going to do it for Smyth. Does anyone want to make the argument that they'll pay Horcoff enough to keep him off the market in two years time? Of course not. Shawn won't re-sign for the equivalent of $4MM and they'll dump him at the deadline.

All these cats talking about this RFA coming and that UFA being enticing...they're deluding themselves. It's bad enough that they ditched him (and I'm not necessarily down on the return - I'm apparently one of the few Oilers fans who doesn't know enough about these guys to have an opinion), it's what it says about how this franchise is going to be run as long as Cal Nichols has the reins that kills me. Guys like Smyth cost money once they become UFA's. That's just the way it works. EIG won't let it be like that and they'll send Lowe on TV to lie about it.

I hear what Sacamano and Asia are saying about decline and years 4 and 5 and all that but it seems to me that they should find it a little bit troubling that the Oilers apparently weren't concerned about that. Or at least not concerned enough to allow it to impede a deal - they've basically acknowledged that they were willing to pay him $5.4MM in year five. For all this talk of supporting Lowe's plan and it being the right decision, do you guys not find it the least bit troubling that they were so close to disaster? How do you perceive a plan that you can support there? At best, you're saying that their cheapness saved them from a collossal mistake. Does that honestly fill you with any confidence that they'll make the right decisions ahead? If you're for this deal, you have to acknowledge that they were close to doing something disastrous and only avoided it for the wrong reasons. If you're against it, you think that they did something [insert negative word here]. In either event, I don't know how anyone can really be filled with confidence in Cal's Crew at the moment.

As an aside, for those remaining Oiler fans at Lowepologists, at what point do "second full year in the league" and "wanted six million dollars" stop being verbal slips and start being concerted efforts to alter opinion? Just curious. I'd also like to know if anyone remembers any others. Lowe seems to have an unerring ability to only make verbal errors of fact in his own favour.
 

Is it just me or are blog comments funnier when the team sucks?
 

Seriously...

Shut the fuck up, assholes.

=)
 

Doesn't the evil ownership angle entice the most riled of you to continue to follow the team just a little bit? Hell, it revitalized rasslin' in the 90's, and sure has double dropkicked the Oilers blogs and boards over the last week.

Can you really imagine yourself rooting for another crest? Except maybe Rivers. Why aren't you already a Thrasher fan? They have Russian playboys, they trade stars for stars, and talk about your pounds of flesh, Bob Hartley is their freaking coach!

Oh and tonight was mullet night in Atlanta!

One last article on Ryan Smyth, and I'm sorry but it's cut and paste. If you're pro trade read the part where it says Smyth has never scored over 70 points and has one hulluva weak shot. If you're anti trade you'll want to see what Ted Nolan had to say about him.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/sports/hockey/05smyth.html?ref=hockey
 

Didn't Hurdey emcee some event for the Oilers this year? I mention that because I used to think the guy was an Oilers fan but I didn't know he was a true blue Oiler until I saw his performance last night. Right off the bat last night Maclean asked him if he was surprised by the smyth deal and he said "No, it was a good business decision." Then it was just schilling the whole fucking night.

Ty makes an excellent point though about all the lies that Lowe throws around in an effort to distort reality and how some people gloss over that fact. Because it is a fact.

The Oilers little corner of the web as gone absolutely bonkers since this deal and it's touched something in me personally for a couple of reasons. First off I didn't have much innocence left as a fan but this just about tore it. This is smytty for fucksakes. Not only does he lose teeth and skate miles but he's also able to match up against anybody and do a damn good job in that role. Lowe throwing around Billy Beane references was just gross because Beane would be all over a guy like Smyth. And I can't figure out why MacT didn't go and say "listen, do you know how hard it is going to be for me to match lines without this guy?."

Also, it's not that we didn't suspect it the Oilers budget figure that keeps being tossed around is 39 mill or less so until the new stade gets built the Oilers will far farther and farther behind as the cap goes up because of course it will keep going up.

There just doesn't seem like there's a lot of hope right now and I know you've got to pay "somebody" but now you've got Roli locked up for real money for two years and you're gonna be in a battle to put a crew in front of him that's complimentry.

At this point I'm expecting both Horc and Stoll dealt for a young goalie and a Pitkanen and this team won't pay hardly anyone for the next two years.
 

I'm all over it, Vic.

But, sadly, if I had more than pennies to play with I would have been a playa during the recent RRSP season.

But I'd like to discuss the terms before it goes up on your sidebar.
 

MC,

I'm not sure you can say that Lowe et al. weren't concerned about the longevity issue. In fact, I think you can pinpoint with some accuracy exactly how concerned they were about it -- that they were willing to roll the dice on it up to 5.whatever million they offered and not a penny more.
 

I think you can pinpoint with some accuracy exactly how concerned they were about it -- that they were willing to roll the dice on it up to 5.whatever million they offered and not a penny more.

I have a hard time making the connection you're seeing here. Is there really any difference between $5.4MM in year 5 and $5.5MM? If you're worried about his longevity, what makes that extra 100K the breaking point. I mean I understand that your breaking point is going to be somewhere but it seems to me that once you're ready to do the big dollars in year 5, whether it's $5.4 or $5.5...you aren't worried about his longevity.
 

Is there really any difference between $5.4MM in year 5 and $5.5MM?

No difference at all. That's one of the things that bug me most about the "he's not worth 5 million for five years" argument. That number is relative, depending on cap fluctuations. You could make the argument that it's not considering the Oilers will have to keep a budget, but I repeat: they aren't saying they have a budget. Kevin Lowe keeps saying money isn't going to be a problem. And no one has publicly committed to a 40 million budget. TSN has reported it, but without any actual comments from the EIG or management. So either way, they are being disingenuous. If there is no budget, then 5.5 is the new 3 million in 2009. If there is a budget, publicly tell the people of Edmonton what it is, and see how well they take it.
 

Is there really any difference between $5.4MM in year 5 and $5.5MM?


Well, first of all it isn't only in year 5 because contracts need to be looked at in their entirety. So it is half a million bucks over the life of the contract.

We can probably also include the 800,000 or whatever Lowe is saving this season by trading Smyth.

But, the real problem with the "it was only 100,000" argument, is that it never ends. What is the difference between 5.6 and 5.5. Or 5.7 and 5.6, or 5.8 and 5.7, etc.

At some point a raise in price, no matter how small, is too expensive. We can argue whether or not Lowe set his limit too low; but it is ridiculous to flay him for setting a limit.

You're implying that this is the case for Lowe. Why can't it be phrased: Is there any difference between 5.5MM in year 5 and 5.4MM?
 

The last paragraph obviously is in reference to posing the question to Smyth.
 

You're implying that this is the case for Lowe. Why can't it be phrased for Smyth: Is there any difference between 5.5MM in year 5 and 5.4MM?

Well, Smyth offered to give it back in terms of luxury boxes, so I think that questions been answered. But the point for me is that the number is relative.
 

Reportedly. But don't forget, on HNIC on CBC, after a piece on Ryan Smyth prior to the early/Toronto game, they said:
"Ryan Smyth denied the difference was only $100,000"

I don't have the tape, but that's pretty much the exact quote.

So, why is there any reason to believe Ryan offered to give back the difference in luxury boxes? Solely because it was mentioned on "Satellite Hotstove" by non-Edmonton media?

Sorry Andy. It's an interesting angle that makes the non-signing even more difficult to believe...so it fits a great conspiracy theory. That doesn't make it true. Given the Ryan Smyth denial (not just on HNIC btw), I don't believe the luxury box twist.
 

So you believe everything Lowe has to say, but everything from reporters that give credence to the Smyth side is "reported." Isn't that convenient.

"Ryan Smyth denied the difference was only $100,000"

Note the word "only."

Plus, you are side-stepping the actual point, which is that the $5.5 number is relative.
 

>>So you believe everything Lowe has to say, but everything from reporters that give credence to the Smyth side is "reported." Isn't that convenient.<<

What are you talking about? The point I was making was pro Smyth in many ways. And I was obviously taking Smyth's word for something. You're the one ignoring the fact Smyth and Meehan have denied the difference was $100,000. Wow, point out an inconsistency in Andy's posts, and you're labeled. Tell me again the venom is unintentional.

>>Note the word "only." <<

Are you kidding? I may have added that word myself. Or did you miss the part where I said it was from memory? Nice misdirection...or is that side stepping?... ;-)

>>Plus, you are side-stepping the actual point, which is that the $5.5 number is relative.<<

Side stepping? You know a thing or two about that yourself (e.g. you're the one that brought luxury boxes into the conversation).

Relative in the sense $5 is "only" 3.5 in five years? Nice try. It will likely be a smaller part of the cap by then, but it's certainly not chump change.

Speaking of relative, check Hemsky's contract, and tell me again that Smyth @ 36 is worth as much as Hemsky @ 28.

A three year deal @ 5.5 might have been palatable. Course Ryan didn't want that. Perhaps because a guaranteed contract is worth something. Even if 5.5 will become the pittance you suggest.

If you haven't seen it already, check out Razor's post on the matter. If not next year already, by years 4 & 5, the money can be better spent elsewhere. In the cap world, there's no getting out from under the deal. Relatively speaking.