I am trying to get over this until the numbers come out. Pure speculation but he is worth about the same as Doan is. But Meehan used Tanguay as the number. Did the Flames over pay yes they did. I think the Oil gave him a fair shake. But hey what do I know I like Ryan I hope he may even return but in the long run long term deals for Older players with no trade clauses are a crap shoot. I am going to look on the upside is that we have bunch of dough lying around now. The Oil can resurrect the Road Runners, have another revenue stream with the Oil Kings, and have a boatload of cheap young players. Will it be good who knows but the way this team has reacted to the trade really has me questioning the captain and coaches for fucks sake it is a business. They are playing like a bunch of pussies. Just because of the trade the rest of the team is going to mail in the last 20 games. You are Oilers for fucks sake... nut it up
The Spot light is wide open for one these butt monkies the Oilers have to become the new fan favorite. The longer they play like this the longer the will be in the shadow of the Mullet. One big hit, one shot, it can make you a hero.. step on up. Lupul, Torres, JFJ. Fuck lets bring up Schremp and see how he bleeds...
 

Good post, Andy.

The other weird logic I've seen is "Okay we may have lost a first line LW, but we have the money to sign a new one in July!"

Nevermind that a comparable LW will cost more, nor the fact that the Oilers have yet to successfully sign a top UFA that wants to come here. To me it's just another hole to fill.

I thought the $100,000 story would be a tipping point againt Lowe, but apparently the GM can do no wrong.
 

Call me crazy but none of those contracts strike me as being overly marked up. Pisani and Moreau are both more capable than Smyth of playing against tough opposition in shutdown roles, and Moreau plays an integral leadership role and helps to keep our young players accountable. They're not paid primarily to score goals and play on the PP. Between the two of them, you could probably argue that their salaries have a combined overpays of about 500k. Beyond that, I think it's also important to remember that absolute quantity is an important aspect here, these two guys combined make less than Smytty would have. I'm not arguing value on this point, I'm just saying that it is much easier to justify spending 4.5 mill on two proficient role players as opposed to 5.5 mill on one proficient scorer. The team needs both types of players, and Lowe decided the team would be better suited in the future by looking to spend its 5.5 million on a different scorer.

I would argue that Staois and Roloson's contracts are market value. See Gerber and McKee's contracts if you think otherwise.
 

That's fucking insane. That author needs to have it pointed out to him that the Oilers aren't gonna be spending to the cap anytime soon (remember "we'd be more comfortable with a cap around $40MM"?) so the idea that Smyths contract would have been to large a cap hit is just fucking stupid.
 

Sorry Jon, Moreau and Pisani are great, but good role players, albeit underrated, are a dime a dozen, otherwise Grier, Marchant, Radek Dvorak or Rob Niedermayer would have been making twice the money.

>better suited in the future by looking to spend its 5.5 million on a different scorer.

Why? Also, who would you sign to replace Smyth as a UFA for 5.5 million? I don't see a lot of realistic possibilities at that price.
 

they may say they are going the ufa route but if they replace Smyth it will be by trade

every summer is the same - the ufa feeding frenzy is ridiculous -

if Lowe is going to spend the money he is going to target teams looking to dump guys - teams like Atlanta if they don't make the playoffs or Florida - and move cheap guys to them
 

I don't blame Kevin Lowe in the least for Don Meehan, who pulled this same "heart of the franchise, I'm getting my demand and I'm not budging an inch" gag with Mike Peca in Buffalo and Jose Theodore in Montreal. I also don't blame him for not wanting to overpay more, though I am disappointed he went as high as he did. Luckily, it all turned out okay.

The argument that "Kevin Lowe overpaid these guys, therefore he should overpay some other guys" strikes me as a strange one to say the least.
 

>they replace Smyth it will be by trade

Like you say, it will be with a team likely looking to dump salary, on top of losing yet another roster player. So we're back at square one: why not sign Smyth for cheap and rest easy?
 

Black Dog has got it right. Listening to Stauffer and Lowe recently, they were dropping huge hints that they are going to target teams in financial problems with lures of cheap, young assets, of which we have an abundance. The only UFA we might sign this summer is a D man, like Timonen or Numminen.

As for the guys you mentioned, they are all useful role players. Their salaries this year:

Niedermayer 2,000,000
Grier 1,775,000
Marchant 2,470,000
Dvorak 1,000,000

All in the range of Moreau and Pisani, except maybe Dvo. I would argue Dvorak's salary is so low partially due to the venom he was subject to while in Edmonton, despite doing a decent job of keeping the puck out of his net.

Call me a fanboy, but Lowe et all know what they're doing. If they are overpaying someone, it's going to be someone very special or someone we desperately need, like Pronger. Though they will probably settle for one of the aforementioned D men. One of the most important aspects of a successful strategy in anything is flexibility. That's what we have this summer. We can into full blown rebuild with our picks and prospects, or we can reload by trading them away to teams in weak financial positions like St. Louis after the lockout. In some ways, you guys are completely right, some fool GM with throw 6 mill at Smyth and other UFAs we want. That's why we need that flexibility, so we can bid for their services but when that fails, revert to other contingencies.

On the other hand the EIG are much harder to side with. Unless they get us that AHL affiliate this summer (which seems to be the case), they come out of this year looking pretty bad all things considered.
 

The argument that "Kevin Lowe overpaid these guys, therefore he should overpay some other guys" strikes me as a strange one to say the least.

It wouldn't be an overpayment. Signing Smyth for the amount he wanted would have been a discount. The proof will be in what he gets on the open market. The sad thing is they could have had him for even cheaper, if they had bothered to do it last summer. But even if it was an overpayment, it makes sense to overpay one guy who no one wants to lose rather than four or five who we might be sad to see go, but not so angry that we stop coming to the games. I didn't even include the Lupul contract in here, which is another shitty one.

Call me crazy but none of those contracts strike me as being overly marked up. Pisani and Moreau are both more capable than Smyth of playing against tough opposition in shutdown roles, and Moreau plays an integral leadership role and helps to keep our young players accountable.

Okay, you are crazy. All the guys I listed are around the same age group, so let's throw that one out the window right away. I won't stand hearing someone say that Smyth would be too old in his 5th year when we have a 37 year-old career backup starting in net this year. He'll triple the points that Pisani gets this year. He would have done the same with Chopper, if he was healthy. I haven't looked, but I'm gonna guess his PP rates are substantially better than Moreu's and Pisani's. ES rates, too. Pisani probably plays tougher minutes, but not by much. And while you think there is value in having two middling players whose numbers come close to Smytty's, I think it's a waste of roster space. I'm sorry, but anyone who says they would rather have Pisani and Chopper for $4.5 over having Smyth for $5.5 is, to me, crazy. So I guess that's the 2nd time I've called you such. :)

Oh, and we've not even talked about the second part of my post, the part where we the Oilers would have signed him "if only" they had an unrestricted budget. That is all kinds of crazy.


And because I'm still too lazy to post about this, let me suggest here that we need to have something like VORP stats or Similarity Scores on sites like this so that can eliminate the subjectivity of said discussions.
 

Listening to Stauffer and Lowe recently, they were dropping huge hints that they are going to target teams in financial problems with lures of cheap, young assets, of which we have an abundance.

On the one hand I'm not surprised, as Lowe can't sign or negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag. The only thing he can do is pry bodies out, like he did with Peca and Pronger. On the other, I don't believe a word he says. Wasn't he supposed to make deals this year? How did that turn out? The guy has been dropping hints for two days about an 8 million dollar man. I don't believe a word of it. He'll just switch it around when the time comes, in the same way this article did about the salary cap.
 

>Don Meehan, who pulled this same "heart of the franchise, I'm getting my demand and I'm not budging an inch" gag

Interesting characterization. From what's reported, the negotiations were amicable. But indeed, Meehan had the leverage: career year for Smytty, a trade deadline and teams lining up for him on July 1. $5.5 million didn't seem that bad to me. We'll see what he gets in the off-season.

>The argument that "Kevin Lowe overpaid these guys, therefore he should overpay some other guys" strikes me as a strange one to say the least.

That's not the argument. It's a refutation to all of the Lowe apologists who cling to the idea that Lowe is making prudent, objective financial decisions not tied up in sentimentality or player loyalty.
 

That's not the argument. It's a refutation to all of the Lowe apologists who cling to the idea that Lowe is making prudent, objective financial decisions not tied up in sentimentality or player loyalty.

Exactly. Pisani and Roloson got those conracts because of one-time performances in the playoffs. And Lowe pretty much went on all year about Staios and Chopper getting paid for being loyal Oilers. Not exactly what the article was suggesting.

Thanx, Mike. I had forgotten to add that part to my last comments.
 

This comment has been removed by the author.
 

Sorry. This is totally a hit and run troll job, but I couldn't let these slide...

I won't stand hearing someone say that Smyth would be too old in his 5th year when we have a 37 year-old career backup starting in net this year.

Comparing a LW to a goaltender to strengthen an argument. Bad form.

And because I'm still too lazy to post about this, let me suggest here that we need to have something like VORP stats or Similarity Scores on sites like this so that can eliminate the subjectivity of said discussions.

You're right, that would be great. We'll get right on it.



Oh wait, no we won't because it would be impossible. My bad.
 

Mclea, I get the feeling that you're lost somehow.

May I suggest a forum more, er, suitable for your attention-getting needs? I'm sure you'll be a hit:

http://hfboards.com/
 

Dammit, Mike, why'd you provide that link? I've heard of the HF voards a lot but never bothered to seek it out. Now I've been there and must run my brain through the dishwasher. I'm surprised all the slobbering over K-Lowe's joint over there didn't triggger my office 'puter's "sexual content" filters. Yeesh.
 

Comparing a LW to a goaltender to strengthen an argument. Bad form.

I would have thought that this would have coincided well with the "mclea school of thought"--you know, since there is no objective way to compare two different people in a chaotic sport, they must all be equivalent in a way.
 

otherwise ... Radek Dvorak ... would have been making twice the money.

D-vo should have been making four times the money. He was gold, baby, gold. Just permanently snake-bitten is all. I bet on a per minute basis, D-vo got himself into a scoring position as well, if not better, than anyone in the league. He was just inept when it actually came to putting the puck in the net. You win some, you lose some
 

May I suggest a forum more, er, suitable for your attention-getting needs?

Dude, Grabia's statement basically amounted to "instead of arguing over who is better we should just invent a perfect way to value a player so then we could just point at a number and that would be that."

And I don't respond to this absurd nonsense because I want to Mike, but because I have to. It's almost instinctual, like a mechanical reflex over which I have no control.

Oh, and this after he said "how can Lowe say Smyth will be old at the end of his contract when Roloson is 37" which is basically like saying a 39 year old running back isn't old because there's a 39 year old back up quarterback on the team.

Insane I tell you.
 

>He was just inept when it actually came to putting the puck in the net.

Yep, god love 'im. Watching him wiff on all of those pucks reminded me of when I used to play street hockey with wooden sticks, and they'd get whittled down to an inch blade. Nevertheless, I'd take him back in a heartbeat.
 

>Grabia's statement basically amounted to "instead of arguing over who is better we should just invent a perfect way to value a player so then we could just point at a number and that would be that."

To you, maybe. To me, it read like "let's use hard numbers and actual information like goals, assists, TOI, and quality of opposition when discussing a player's value."

Seriously, HF Boards is just a click away.
 

Jesus christ I can't believe I have to read this stuff.

__Call me a fanboy, but Lowe et all know what they're doing. If they are overpaying someone, it's going to be someone very special or someone we desperately need, like Pronger__

Someone special like a guy who grew up rooting for a team, who'll go through a fucking wall to win, who did tonnes of charity work and who ON THE ICE matched up against the top players and come out no worse than even.

Mike W, you mentioned you thought this was a tipping point for the support for Lowe well I wonder if this is a tipping point for the people who don't believe in numbers and for the who need lowe to physically assault them before they turn on him.

And for all those people who think Lowe's gonna get an 8 million dollar player? Yeah and I've got someone in the barn that spins straw into gold.

For fucksakes how can people be this stupid. Moreau can make 2 million dollars a year and you can't "overpay" smyth/.
 

BTW...did anyone else love how that TV blogger chimed in today to say Oilers fans might have the last laugh on the 94 deal?

Listen clown, I won't tell you about who's the great gameplayer on Survivor: Fort McMurray or wherever that fucking bullshit is taking place and you won't try and tell me about hockey.

Deal?
 

Seriously, HF Boards is just a click away.

I prefer the company here.

And Earl Sleek, you want to argue about stats on Sunday? I've got nothing to do, and I remember promising that I would articulate my thoughts on the subject for you, but I guess I never got around to it.
 

I really can't see why you'd say any of the contracts given out by Lowe previously affected the Smyth signing. The money was there. Lowe chose not to use it. He didn't think Smyth was worth the money he was asking and I don't either. I'm sure he'll get what he wants after July 1 and good for him. All that means is theres a GM out there willing to tie up big dough on his type of player. Lowe wasn't. Oiler fans need to get over it.
 

The argument that "Kevin Lowe overpaid these guys, therefore he should overpay some other guys" strikes me as a strange one to say the least.

That's not what we're saying. What we're saying is that you can't argue, that those overpays were good hockey/financial decisions, and that trading Smyth was also a good hockey/financial decision. Doesn't work that way.

Comparing a LW to a goaltender to strengthen an argument. Bad form.

Comparing old guy to old guy seems pretty solid to me. They're pretty prone to injury no matter where you stick 'em at 36, 37, and prone to the same CBA issues WRT retirement, too.

Oh, and this after he said "how can Lowe say Smyth will be old at the end of his contract when Roloson is 37" which is basically like saying a 39 year old running back isn't old because there's a 39 year old back up quarterback on the team.

No, what he's saying is that he can't complain about paying an old guy, given the precedent he's set. If Roli was a $1M/yr backup, would anyone be arguing this? Let me think...

=====

Oh, and I have sent a letter to the Journal regarding the rather questionable arguments. $5 says it never sees the light of day, especially since I live in Calgary.
 

Andy:
>> But it gets even better. This line, THIS line, is the absolute best!

"Given an unlimited budget, Oilers general manager Kevin Lowe would have the high-scoring fan favourite in their lineup."

You mean, like the unlimited budget that was around in the pre-lockout NHL? The pre-lockout NHL where you said, in this article NOT 200 WORDS EARLIER, that Oilers players were "dumped from inventory the moment they began to cost too much"?<<

No Andy. The Oilers didn't have an unlimited budget pre-cap. As you noted from the Journal piece, they had to dump players because they cost too much. Therefore, not an unlimited budget.

>> Oh, I get it. This week, because it suits the EIG, it's the salary cap's fault that Ryan Smyth couldn't be kept. But three years ago, it was a lack of a salary cap that prevented the Oilers from keeping their top talent, guys like Doug Weight, Curtis Joseph and Bill Guerin. Right. Silly old me, thinking the Oilers couldn't have it both ways. I forgot. It's Edmonton, and its the Edmonton Journal. They can have it any way they want. <<

No, they're saying a budget is a reason, not the cap. With or without a cap, the Oil have a budget. Period. Neither was unlimited Andy. Closest thing to unlimited budget pre-cap was Toronto, Detroit, St.Louis, the Rangers, & Philly. Edmonton obviously wasn't in that group.

- Rod
 

No Andy. The Oilers didn't have an unlimited budget pre-cap. As you noted from the Journal piece, they had to dump players because they cost too much. Therefore, not an unlimited budget.

Rod, meet Sarcasm. Sarcasm, Rod.

No, they're saying a budget is a reason, not the cap. With or without a cap, the Oil have a budget.

The Journal is implying that this is somehow different from the other selloffs because it's the salary-cap era. It's not and anyone with half a brain knows it, as you've clearly demonstrated. That is the point.
 

This is great...all my favourite commenters in one place.

I want to scroll waaay back up the list and quibble with this: If they are overpaying someone, it's going to be someone very special or someone we desperately need, like Pronger.

Simple complaint: before we forget, the Oil didn't overpay for Pronger, they got a great deal at 6.25 M x5. He's fallen to 7th highest paid D in the league, when he could easily be in the top two. At the time, the maximum player salary was $7.8 M; this year, it was $8.8 M. I look forward to the day when Lowe announces a signing that's for even 80% of that amount (Briere, anyone?).

It looks like Edmonton's cap hit will end up right around where the EIG want it, at 40.79 M, good for 21st in the league. I don't equate spending with good management, but for a team that's top-ten in revenue, that looks appalling.

(To Rod's comment, sure the EIG may have set a budget that's under-cap, but they have the money to pay salaries up to and over the cap.)

And as for the elite talent the UFA market might produce on LW, so far we're looking at Kariya, Shanahan, Tkachuk, Nagy, Calder, York and Andy's favourite, Gary Roberts. Personally, I'd endorse Nagy, if he can be extracted from Dallas. As for the rest, give me Ryan Smyth any day.
 

For me the issue is not that Lowe pushed Smyth out the door, but rather how he intends to replace his production with all this money he's supposedly saved. There are reasonable possibilities but Lowe would have to make them priority 1. It also might take a rethinking on MacT's part as to how he employs his two top lines. I would have no problem with Smyth being replaced by Hartnell and Nagy on the left side and we actually could end up being better off in the long run. They're both reasonably young, one brings grit and some hands, and the other brings finesse. I could see Hartnell fitting in very well with Horcoff and Nagy with Hemsky. Now who to employ at centre with Hemsky/Nagy,(maybe Sykora so we can have an all softie trio), and who to play at RW with Horcoff/Hartnell(is Fruit Lupes even going to be around) become the million dollar questions. Or in this case maybe thats the $5.75 million dollar question.

The biggest issue is where the money goes plain and simple. If its into say 2 other players then I have no problem. If its into the ownerships pockets so Oiler fans can suffer through another year of mediocrity then I have very large issues with the whole bunch of them.
 

Didn't, in fact, Fenwick predict exactly these series of events? That Smyth would be denounced as soon as he left town?
 

Dennis:
>>Someone special like a guy who grew up rooting for a team, who'll go through a fucking wall to win, who did tonnes of charity work and who ON THE ICE matched up against the top players and come out no worse than even.<<
Doesn't that also describe Pisani? Completely unrelated I'm sure, but Pisani costs a heck of a lot less than 5.5 million. They've signed heart and soul character guys (e.g. Staios, Moreau, Pisani). Now they can target some elite talent. I've said before and I'll say again, I'm holding judgment on the Smyth trade until I see the training camp roster.

BTW, that elite talent won't necessarily come the UFA route although Nagy would be nice option. I agree with lowetide that elite talent is most likely to end up here via trade.

Rod
 

avi:
>>(To Rod's comment, sure the EIG may have set a budget that's under-cap, but they have the money to pay salaries up to and over the cap.)<<
Quite likely, given they reportedly have the 8th highest gate. Considering they'll end up spending around $40 million, I would almost bet the cap was their budget number this year (a number like that gives enough wiggle room for deadline pickups...if they were in contention).

My point mainly was to counter Andy's suggestion that they had an unlimited budget pre-cap. Course if my sarcasm meter was reading as well as doogie, I might have picked up that Andy wasn't serious.

- Rod
 

Doesn't that also describe Pisani?

Right up until you start talking offense. Pisani is a 15-20 goal man. Smyth is a 30+-goal man, and has a ton more NHL experience to boot. That's where the difference in salary comes in.
 

First: I loved the WHA Oilers, but when the owners/greedheads sold out every ticket so I couldn't get to a game for the remainder of my childhood, I gave the Oil a royal "f*** you." It killed me to see Pocklington win the Cup and the happiest day of my life was when Gretzky was sold for a bag of peanuts. But Ryan's performance v SJ last playoffs made me proud of being from Gravel Pit City.
I'm not sure Chicklets is worth > $5M. But so much dough was wasted on replaceable parts as listed in Andy's post. If SLowe had the slightest clue (which I'm convinced he doesn't) he would have tied up Smyth FIRST, then figured out who fit into the budget after that.
I now happily return to cheering for ABO (Anybody But the Oilers). Any fan who pays money to get raped by Oiler ownership for 28 years deserves this and more.
- Art V.
 

Jesus Christ Dennis, you really need to get a grip. How much is Smyth wanting to play his whole career in Edmonton worth? 2 million dollars? Because that's how much he would have been overpaid at 5.4 million over 5 years, AT LEAST. You really think Smyth would be a 5.4 million dollar player at 36 and 37? Let me ask you this, how many 37 year old players are there in the league right now that make over 5.4 million? I can think of one, and that's future hall of famer Joe Sakic. Hell, Brodeur is only 34 and is the best goalie in the game right now, he makes 5.2 million. For a guy who espouses the utility of numbers, you're really burying your head in the sand regards to them in this case.

Furthermore if Smyth really wanted to stay in Edmonton and wasn't being just a little greedy, why wouldn't he sign a 3 year deal at 5.5 now, and with that as a sign of good faith from Lowe re-sign after that point? He insisted on 5 years because he knew he couldn't keep up the daily tolls he took on his body, so he needed to be locked into a long-term contract at an extremely hefty rate. Hell, I loved Smytty as much as anyone and I believe everyone should be compensated for their work, but the hard facts of this case do not support Smyth's decisions as much as they do Lowe's.

And by the way, I think Moreau is worth 2 million per year. In my opinion, saying otherwise is like saying Jason Smith isn't worth 2 million. What's the knock on Moreau here, he doesn't score enough? That's not his primary job and neither is Smith's so it isn't a valid point.
 

Avi: I didn't mean to imply Pronger was overpaid, quite the opposite. I was meaning to imply that if we had the opportunity to sign or trade for an impact player like Pronger again, you can be sure that Lowe would be willing to overpay.
 

What's the knock on Moreau here, he doesn't score enough? That's not his primary job and neither is Smith's so it isn't a valid point.

Well whose job is it? And how do we get a message to his office? In the NHL you pay a premium for goalscoring. Smyth is on pace for 40, plus he makes excellent use of Hemsky who've the Oil have a lot invested in. And he provides leadership, a quality I'd suggest after observing the last three games the Oilers need more of. Good luck finding that skill set on the open market; a UFA is going to cost more and a trade for a player under contract is going to probably take 3 first rounders or the equivalent.
 

You guy are silly, arguing in bloggers comment feature. Why don't we all get together and hash this out on IRC? I respect your opinions, and I'd like to hear what you base them on. I threw up a couple posts on Always-on-the-road that pertain to Smyth's market value, and I could only conclude that 5.4m/5 was an extremely generous offer.

- kinger
 

Money aside, Smyth was/is pissed that Lowe gave him the cold shoulder after last season but renegotiated the contract of Staios who was under contract at the time. Here is how I see the over all issue with trading Smyth. The Lowe treats his grinders with great respect but his star player have to be Gretzky good before Lowe will concede that the star player earns their money.
akoilerfan47
 

Andy:

VORP in baseball is massively wrong. Ignore it. I don't really follow a lot of this gambling stuff clearly, but it seems to me that when the early lines thrown to the sharks have 1% holds and they're taking 5% margins at day's end ... even Tyler's buddy "dolphin" can't save ya. :D

In hockey, on a game by game basis Smyth should move the game line 25 cents with a last minute injury. (More lately I know, but this is a special case right now, the team knows they are fucked).

Pronger around 20c as an Oiler (nearer a quarter between Minny and DET games this year as a Duck I know, for any wiseasses out there ... think it through)

Oiler fan legend Doan is but a heavy nickel, seriously (what in god's name is Gretzky doing down there, anyways?). People a lot smarter than me put Hemsky as a light nickel, but I put him over a dime. Still, if Lowe had moved Hemsky on Tuesday I would have admired his balls and defended his Billy Beane reference.

Smid and Lupul could go knee on knee tomorrow morning ... give yourself a nickel before the game lines change. Seriously.

Fuck it Andy. Let's start talking Tavares!!!!
 

VORP in baseball is massively wrong.

What's your objection to VORP Vic? The point at which replacement value is set? The use of MLV? There's an argument that replacement value is set too low but other than that, the thinking seems credible to me.

It's harder to apply to hockey, of course, because of the ripple effect. WOuldn't seem to be insurmountable wtih good data though.
 

tyler:

The problem with VORP in baseball is that people who know better are taking advantage. So two things must be happening:
1. It's deeply flawed.
2. The punters are buying in.

I hate baseball though. Having said that, I'm not exactly sure what you're driving at but I'm in as long as it's not for pennies, we've got to keep it interesting and keep up our BofA street cred. :D And let's get this Mclea guy in on this, he'll enjoy it, seems like a good guy.
 

No Andy. The Oilers didn't have an unlimited budget pre-cap. As you noted from the Journal piece, they had to dump players because they cost too much. Therefore, not an unlimited budget.

Rod, reading it again, I sorta see your point. But if I read it in the context of the whole article, I'm quite positive that's not how they meant it. Read it again yourself. The implication is that the cap is now what's holding them back from paying players. Note this point:

"Given an unlimited budget, Oilers general manager Kevin Lowe would have the high-scoring fan favourite in their lineup. But the cap means the budget is limited;"

See what i mean? "But the cap means the budget is limited." It's the cap holding them back, not their own budget. They'd spend to the moon if they could. That's what it reads like to me.

Doesn't that also describe Pisani? Completely unrelated I'm sure, but Pisani costs a heck of a lot less than 5.5 million. They've signed heart and soul character guys (e.g. Staios, Moreau, Pisani).

But you've just proved my point, Rod, which is that those guys weren't signed according to a "simple cost-benefit analysis, devoid of sentiment." Roli and Pisani got contracts because of the playoffs. Pisani is also a home-town kid (see also Lupul). And Lowe has been saying all year that Staios, Moreau and Smith were going to get loyalty contracts.

My point in all of this is not so much to advance arguments, but to refute the ones that are being advanced by Lowe apologists. Some of these would be:

1) That Smyth was too old. I don't think he is, but you certainly can't say that's a legitimate argument when they sign four other guys over 30 to pretty lengthy deals.

2) That he wanted too much. His value is much higher than $5.5. And we haven't even gotten into the idea that his salary becomes cheaper as the cap goes up (see Brad Richards or Chris Pronger). That's a whole other story, and ties into the cap/budget question. But Lowe keeeps saying "money wasn't the problem", so I can ssume he's gonna max out next year, right?"

3) That they crunched numbers on all these deals, and avoided doing anything based on intangibles or irrationality. I just stated the reasons why those other four guys got deals, so I won't explain again.

4) That he is a so-so hockey player. I'll leave Tyler and the IOF guys to demonstrate that one, but I think Smytty's value is vastly underrated. In fact, I predict that in the "new" NHL, with d-men being less able to bang guys in front of the net, Smytty is going to be a 40 goal scorer for the next 5 years. Throw in all his other tangible assets, as well as the intangibles, and he was worth keeping.

That's just some of them. I haven't even talked about how little I trust management and the EIG now after all the shenanigans they've pulled off this year. What would be really neat would be for a bunch of us to get together and hash out a big collective post/paper on this.

N.B.: going all the way up to the cap is not necessarily rational even if you have unlimited funds to spend (or even if other GMs are doing so).

Very true. But no matter what he says, Kevin Lowe is not Billy Beane. When he starts racking up 90-95 win seasons on a consistent basis, with a third of the salary as the top paying team, I'll ease up. Futhermore, since we all know this is the case, why did we let him bitch about the need for a cap three seasons ago? I mean the royal "we", obviously.

VORP in baseball is massively wrong. Ignore it. I don't really follow a lot of this gambling stuff clearly, but it seems to me that when the early lines thrown to the sharks have 1% holds and they're taking 5% margins at day's end ... even Tyler's buddy "dolphin" can't save ya. :D

I got the first sentence, but have no idea what was meant by the rest. I feel like I'm on the outside of an inside joke. I'd be interested to hear the reasonings behind why VORP is no good, but in this case I just want to know if there is something that identifies a player's true, and comparative, value (or as close to it as you can get). Even something like the similarity score would be a help, at least to me. Of course, if there is better way, I'm all over hearing about it.

This is a great conversation. I hope it continues.
 

I think the debate has lasted as long as it has primarily on the basis that it's cathartic. Everyone has to hate someone for seeing Smyth leave, and most probably will not have changed their mind in 10 years.

It really breaks down into two views:

1. This isn't supposed to happen anymore, why didn't Lowe and the EIG buck up when we know we had the money?

2. 5.4 million dollars is too much in years 3,4, and 5 of the deal Smyth wanted, why did he make us trade him?

Like I said, I don't doubt that people will be debating the same two points 10 years from now.
 

Everyone has to hate someone for seeing Smyth leave

I don't think anyone has to hate anyone for seeing him leave. I could make the same argument about your position, which is that you have to rationalize why he left, and are therefore drinking the team's kool-aid. But that's not very productive. I'd rather just prove that your arguments are wrong.
 

So, 5.4 million dollars isn't too much money for a 36 year old forward? Damn, Lowe really dropped the ball on this one.
 

Andy

You'll probably regret asking this question as much as I'll regret answering it. :) But here goes, a supersimplified example.

The NYI are in WSH tonight. The opening lines are -135/+115. This is where they opened a couple of days ago and where they will likely stay. Barring any pregame skate injuries or flu bugs or the like.

Put another way, the oddsmakers have favoured NYI by a third of a goal. We'll call that 33 cents.

Both teams are playing with a day's rest. A month ago the Islanders also went into WSH, again both teams had the same amount of rest (both playing the tail end of B2B and 3rd game in 4). Game odds were dead even.

Or put another way: The NYI were favoured by 0.00 goals.

For the Isles Yashin and Martinek were out then and are out now. Poti was out I think, he's back now, not sure at what level of health.

They've also added Zednik and Bergeron, both are useful players but neither have ever been, or will be, worth .05 in goal differential (5 cents) to an NHL team. In fairness to them, precious few players are worth more than that. Only omission worth noting to WSH is Zednik.

I don't know Zednik well, but he's a decent player I think. It's fair to compare him to Moreau I think, who is a .03 player historically.

I'll be very generous and give the D improvement between games at .05.

So that leaves Smyth, very conservatively, at driving the goal differential .22 goals. Or 22 cents.

Which is low considering he should be around .24 to .28, like he has been for yonks. But he's on a new team, takes some time. And obviously the Isles have better forwards than the Oilers so his impact isn't quite as strong.

Do the same thing with the Oilers since Smyth left and you end up nearly a dollar left over from the odds in the 3 games since. Flames favoured by half a goal AT REXALL tonight. Damn, that seems a touch high to me.

Right now Luongo, Lidstrom and Richards would all clock in around 35 cents. All well worth whatever they are being paid. All better players, in terms of driving results, than Ryan Smyth. But not by much.

Disagree? Then wager. ;)
 

Man, I've missed a lot and this may be a dead thread but I wanted to respond to Mike W.

Mike, if (and granted its a big if), Lowe can pry, say, Hossa away from Atlanta for picks and prospects, isn't that a win for the Oilers.

If the Oilers can get better value for that 5.5 M then Smyth then it works. Can they? Maybe not. They certainly won't find it in the UFA market but having turned Smyth into assets they can now try and turn similar assets into his replacement.

And maybe nothing will get done this summer in which case we will have two wasted years, not one, but I think that's where its going.
 

ahh, vic is here - vic, I thought you were giving this shit up ;)

here is a question for you - in your opinion, who are two or three comps for Smyth? who is as close to Ryan Smyth as we can get without being the man himself?
 

So, 5.4 million dollars isn't too much money for a 36 year old forward? Damn, Lowe really dropped the ball on this one.

No more than $3.7 is too much for a 40 year old backup goaltender. I didn't hear you bitchig about it then, and I don't hear you bitching about it now.
 

Interesting points, Vic. I still don't see why that makes VORP bad, but I'll ruminate.

And Pat, I doubt this thread will die. Unless it gets really pushed down, that is. So keep talking, if you so desire.
 

Pat:

I've still got some venom left, Pat. :) I haven't been watching the Oilers for a while, and I have no desire to any more, just don't. I'm not cheering for them to lose, even be embarrassed, like a lot of other guys. I just don't care about them now, either way.

Tampa Bay plays tonight in FLA though, I'll catch a bit of that. I'll check in on the Isles as well.

I'd like to be able to cheer for some other team, but really, I just don't feel it. I'm cheering for NYI to make the playoffs and have a good run, but that's only because I want don't want Smyth end up in COL or S.J. If the Isles have a run I think (hope) he'll have a better chance of staying out there.

Andy:
VORP is at the very core of setting the game lines. Especially baseball because of the impact of pitchers. If all bettors were crazy, random monkeys ... your bookie would have to run with 6 or 7% holds and would take the same profit margin.

In baseball it's gotten to the point of ridiculous. Holds under 2% are enough to take the 6+5 margin. Which means that VORP in baseball is not only very poor, but widely accepted. Just because it has to. It's a gold mine if you're on the right side of the fence.
 

Well, I'm glad you're still around Vic, for what its worth, its always educational.

But you didn't answer my question - comp for Smyth? Or two or three?

And what about you Andy?

Maybe a topic for a post?

Or just to continue this thread? I know LT once said he had no real comp - a unique player - but what can we come up with? It would add to the discussion I think.
 

Andy:
>>My point in all of this is not so much to advance arguments, but to refute the ones that are being advanced by Lowe apologists. Some of these would be:<<

Aside from the insinuation that liking the deal means I'm a Lowe apologist...whatever. Time to dispute your refutations:

>>1) That Smyth was too old. I don't think he is, but you certainly can't say that's a legitimate argument when they sign four other guys over 30 to pretty lengthy deals.<

OK, but none of those were five year deals, and none of them were for a top line forward. Given the length of term, and his position, it was a bigger risk. They chose not to go higher, while Ryan chose not to take their offer.

Also note that each of those deals for 30+ players decreased in value over the term. Perhaps that was a stumbling block in this deal.

>>2) That he wanted too much. His value is much higher than $5.5. And we haven't even gotten into the idea that his salary becomes cheaper as the cap goes up (see Brad Richards or Chris Pronger). That's a whole other story, and ties into the cap/budget question. But Lowe keeeps saying "money wasn't the problem", so I can ssume he's gonna max out next year, right?"<<

I don't see how this point invalidates anything the deal supporters are saying. The Oil have just chosen to spend it elsewhere. Oh, and Ryan chose not to take the Oiler offer. It's not like they didn't offer him something substantial. Not saying that Ryan was greedy in turning it down either.

>>3) That they crunched numbers on all these deals, and avoided doing anything based on intangibles or irrationality. I just stated the reasons why those other four guys got deals, so I won't explain again.<<

Short analogy: You're driving under the limit today, but an officer gives you a speeding ticket anyway, explaining that he saw you speeding last summer.

Uh, Andy, those deals were made last summer. With FAs. Ryan wasn't a FA yet, so he was't priority #1. Remember the environment? SCF. Game 7. Within days, CFP pulls the rug out. People panic that no one wants to play here. Lowe responds by bringing back Roloson and Pisani on day one of FA season. Could you imagine the level of fan distress had they not signed a goalie (given the fiasco of last year)? Or not rewarding the home town hero? Had the Oil won, Pisani have been top three in Conn Smythe voting...

Then they tried to bring in UFAs. Turned out they couldn't reel in the big fish (like Chara).

Some Oiler FAs didn't return. Spacek, without the Pronger security blanket, bolted for "less travel" in Buffalo. Tarnstrom returned to Europe (maybe less travel there too ;-).

Horcoff, Stoll, and Hemsky were then signed before arbitration (can't recall if Hemmer was arbitration eligble...).

Sorry Andy, but last summer was a completely different environment. You can't ignore that.

>>4) That he is a so-so hockey player. I'll leave Tyler and the IOF guys to demonstrate that one, but I think Smytty's value is vastly underrated. In fact, I predict that in the "new" NHL, with d-men being less able to bang guys in front of the net, Smytty is going to be a 40 goal scorer for the next 5 years. Throw in all his other tangible assets, as well as the intangibles, and he was worth keeping.<<

Couple things. I don't think Smyth is undervalued. To me, $5.5 is too much him. Perhaps that's the base reason you can't stand the deal, while I don't mind it. Point is, that's just opinion. In no way does it prove you're right and I'm wrong.

As for the rule that allows Smyth to operate largely unencumbered in front of goaltenders, I agree it has helped raise Smyth's goal totals. I also realize that rules aren't written in stone. Especially for five years in the NHL. There's always a chance they'll crack down in front of the net. Ted Nolan for one is a proponent of more physical play in front of the net. Are the 40 goals guaranteed? No. Hmmm.

Anyway, seems to me that Horcoff and Hemsky drive results at pretty much the same rate as Smyth (being on the same line and all). So does that mean they all get $5.5? Horc blocks shots with his face. That has to count.

Got any more "proof" that supporters of the deal are nuts? :-)



Now, I won't dare tell anyone not to be upset at the deal. Emotional support of a team or player is part and parcel of being a fan, and I can't tell someone how to feel. For me, losing Ryan hurts. 12 years an Oiler. Wow. And the kid has turned into quite the player. The goofy grin will definitely be missed.

That said, I've been through far worse. Wayne getting sold, etc. This was different. The player could have stayed. (OK, technically so could Wayne, as Sather offered him a chance to cancel the whole thing just before the press conference announcing the deal...but really, how could Wayne come back to an owner that was shopping the Conn Smythe trophy winner on his honeymoon).

Back on point, this is different than other stars leaving. The Oilers made a substantial offer. The player just decided it wasn't enough. Now, that doesn't make him greedy. Just "stuck in concrete".

Recognizing that:
- there was no guarantee of signing Smyth after the deadline
- they were in the ball game though, so they could always make a play in July
They did the prudent thing, and dealt him for a decent return.

Why shouldn't they do that? If Smyth left for nothing, we'd be all over them for getting nothing. As it stands, management did their job of protecting the franchise. Opponents of the deal throw out the red herring of Joe Sakic. Three things. Sakic is older. He's only signing one year deals anymore (not 5). Finally, he's not bolting from the Avs. If he signs anywhere this summer, he signs with the Avs. There was no such guarantee with Smyth.

Bottom line for me is that while losing Ryan hurts, I'm looking forward to training camp next fall way more than I was after CFP pulled the chute. Losing #44 signalled a rebuilding year to me. No chance of replacing him, nevermind at that salary. Right after the SCF, that was a rather sour taste. Losing Ryan doesn't necessarily mean a rebuilding cycle.

With three first rounders this year, that's a lot of trade bait. With Ryan's 5.5 to spend somewhere, I'm interested to see who they can pick up.

All the best to Ryan. Hope to see him back some day.

And I like the deal...so far. All depends what happens in the summer.
 

Andy:
>>That's just some of them. I haven't even talked about how little I trust management and the EIG now after all the shenanigans they've pulled off this year. What would be really neat would be for a bunch of us to get together and hash out a big collective post/paper on this.<<

Sounds good. Let's wait until the Oilers score a goal though... ;-)
 

Andy:
>>No more than $3.7 is too much for a 40 year old backup goaltender. I didn't hear you bitchig about it then, and I don't hear you bitching about it now.<<

First, his contract will be over before he's 40. Second, the 3.7 average is the cap hit. As he gets older, he's getting paid less.

You can't ignore the environment surrounding the signing. Stanley Cup Finalist. Conn Smythe contender heading into the finals. The goaltending experiment of last season. They had to get a goalie. Period.

So, aside from Roloson, what were their options. If I remember correctly, Luongo was already traded to Vancouver. Did any of the other UFA goalie signings work any better than signing Roloson? No?

You have to drop this one Andy. While it may constitute an overpay, it's not proof they should have signed Smyth at any price.
 

Vic, the book I used to go through always held the favourite on the line as the hot wager. As in if the last season's Sens were at St.Louis, and the money line was Ott -400, $400 hundred is how much you'd have to risk to win a $100. You could cut that in half by taking a two goal margin. I've always wondered about the underdog's line though. With this book I can take the underdog straight up in hockey.

It all changes in b-ball and football, where the spread dictates and juice is the pay factor. Though the spread fluctuates dependant on te bets placed.

I've always wondered about the underdog's line, what it reperesented and how affected payments in Vegas. More for in regard to fights, where you'll often see -420/+200.
 

No more than $3.7 is too much for a 40 year old backup goaltender. I didn't hear you bitchig about it then, and I don't hear you bitching about it now.

You're so predictability hostile it's almost amusing Andy. =)
3.7 million is not too much for a 40 year old starting goaltender. Here, I'll even use your own text to make my point.

Dwayne Roloson
Age: 37
2006-2007 Season: 25 Wins, 26 Losses, 2.69 GAA, .909 SV%
Best Season (2002): 23 Wins, 16 Losses, 2.00 GAA. .927 SV %
Career Totals: 345 GP, 122 Wins, 149 Losses, 2.53 GAA, .910 SV%
Average Salary: $3,666,667 (06-08)

Career SV% of .910? Seems pretty decent to me. What's that you say? 0.909 SV% playing behind the 2006-2007 Oilers defense? That can't be right. For added measure, the stats of a career backup playing behind the Oilers defense:

Markkanen Age 31 2006-2007 0.889 SV%

The first point is that Roloson has done remarkably well in his first season as an undisputed #1, especially considering the shit show of a team in front of him. Considering the market for goalies last summer, it's pretty easy to find goalies that got paid more to produce less (Gerber), reinforcing the idea that Roloson's contract is not a bad one.

As for the length and his age at that point, there are several goalies in the league (Kolzig, Brodeur, Hasek) who are either still productive at that age or have contracts that extend to that age. Getting into the money, by the time Roloson is 39 he will be compensated 3.0 million dollars for the season. His cap hit of 3.667 will be irrelevant by that time since we'll be nowhere near the cap of approx. 50 million. We don't know the details of Smyth's contract, but if it were a ramping down contract, we'd have to assume that basically he would be paid between 6 to 7 million for the first one or two years, and somewhere between 4 and 5 in the final two years. That is still ugly anyway you slice it. 4 to 5 would not be that bad for the final years, but 6 to 7 million for his current production? If we assume it's just a straight 5.4 over the 5, again he's grossly overcompensated by the end. There are only a handful of forwards left in the league by age 36 or who have contracts extending that far, they include Yashin, Sakic, and Federov. Sakic is going to the hall and the Yashin and Federov contracts can generously be referred to as albatross' to their respective teams. I think it's also interesting to note that the only reasonably compensated player of those three is Sakic, who arguably took a pay cut to stay with his team *cough*. Sakic also makes less than Smyth would be at 36. The point is, extending forwards into the second half of their 30s is just a plain bad idea, especially at a rate of 5.4 million for a player of Smyth's calibre.

I'm going to say it now: I highly doubt that any team will sign Smyth as an UFA for 5.5 or more averaged over 5 years. For next year, what teams would even had the capspace or budget to offer such a contract? Philly and... ? If any team if foolish enough to Smyth a contract with that term, the contract will undoubtedly hurt them in its latter half and I would not be surprised to see Smyth moved before the end of it, something that would not have been an option to the Oilers because of the NMC.
 

Aside from the insinuation that liking the deal means I'm a Lowe apologist...whatever. Time to dispute your refutations:

You're so predictability hostile it's almost amusing Andy. =)

I didn't mean to say you were an apologist, Rod. Nor hostile, Jon. Argumentative, sure. But not hostile.

I'll add more later, but I have to get ready for the Bears game now.