Saturday, March 03, 2007



Edmonton draft choice watch: their own 1st-rounder could be as high as 7th, or as low as ~15th.

**On the heels of Wednesday's post, wondering if 3-point OT/SO games induce teams to lock it down if they're tied in the 3rd, I took a quick look at the numbers I have. You're probably aware Overall scoring is down this year; correcting for EN and SO goals, it's down 4.3% by my abacus. By period, relative to 2005/06:
Translation: if scoring had dropped in the 3rd by the same amount as in the 1st/2nd (e.g. 3.4%), we would have seen about 53 more 3rd Period goals this season over the 956 games played thru February.

It's a bit too big of a sample size (and difference) to be considered random, so either 3rd period PPs have declined disproportionately this season, or (and/or?) teams are adapting to the incentives provided by the points structure, and playing more conservatively in the 3rd period to protect (A) their 1 point and (B) their ~50/50 shot at a 2nd point.

Is this a problem? I dunno. It certainly could be, if it gets worse. Or, maybe I'm just out to lunch. I am comparing this season to last season, where the same incentives were in place (they were just newer). It's tough -- probably unwise -- to compare it to pre-lockout years, because the rule changes (or something) had a substantial effect on period-by-period scoring distribution. (Last season, relative to '03/04, the scoring increase in P2 was 30% smaller than the scoring increase in P1 and P3 -- my guess is that the elimination of the two-line pass made it tougher to get a decent line change, but less so in the 2nd as it was already tough to do so on the long change).


Flames PK is still showing serious signs of suckage, but the PP is now 8th in the league, 4th in the WC.

Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.

Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.

Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.

In case Sacamano cares to know, a one Mr. R. Dvorak has scored a goal this day.

Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.

Or the Oil during last year's playoffs.

Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD

Yeah, that's a concern. If only they played teams in the NE division instead of the NE division :-)

errr... that second NE should be NW, heh.

I've noticed a few more OTs this season (not statistically significant) and also noticed that OTs increases as the season progresses (pretty significantly).

However a difference of 53 on a sample of ~2000 goals is not significant due to the fact that one standard deviation = sqrt(2000) or better stated: mean (2000G/Season) = variance (2000 G/season). That being said it's worth watching...

That depends on the baseline--these figures need to be stated in a different form if they are going to be judged for meaningfulness. If your factory had 1 dud light bulb in a batch of 2,000 one year and 54 the next year, that would certainly be significant.

Well, in terms of the number of goals scored in third periods, I think 53 is a sufficiently small number. It was stated right in the post to be a 6.3% drop.

Heya Javageek, since you seem able to do this kind of thing...

Is there a trend for more overtime and shootout games after nights and periods of inactivity. For instance the first night back after the All-Star break, Christmas break, deadline day, or nights immeidately following nights where there are very few games played.

I'd appreciate if you'd look ito because I am not smart.

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