Saturday, March 03, 2007
Housekeeping
Edmonton draft choice watch: their own 1st-rounder could be as high as 7th, or as low as ~15th.**On the heels of Wednesday's post, wondering if 3-point OT/SO games induce teams to lock it down if they're tied in the 3rd, I took a quick look at the numbers I have. You're probably aware Overall scoring is down this year; correcting for EN and SO goals, it's down 4.3% by my abacus. By period, relative to 2005/06:
- 1st period: -3.7%
- 2nd period: -3.1%
- 3rd period: -6.3%
It's a bit too big of a sample size (and difference) to be considered random, so either 3rd period PPs have declined disproportionately this season, or (and/or?) teams are adapting to the incentives provided by the points structure, and playing more conservatively in the 3rd period to protect (A) their 1 point and (B) their ~50/50 shot at a 2nd point.
Is this a problem? I dunno. It certainly could be, if it gets worse. Or, maybe I'm just out to lunch. I am comparing this season to last season, where the same incentives were in place (they were just newer). It's tough -- probably unwise -- to compare it to pre-lockout years, because the rule changes (or something) had a substantial effect on period-by-period scoring distribution. (Last season, relative to '03/04, the scoring increase in P2 was 30% smaller than the scoring increase in P1 and P3 -- my guess is that the elimination of the two-line pass made it tougher to get a decent line change, but less so in the 2nd as it was already tough to do so on the long change).
# posted by Matt @ 9:47 am 
Comments:
Flames PK is still showing serious signs of suckage, but the PP is now 8th in the league, 4th in the WC.
Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.
Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.
Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.
In case Sacamano cares to know, a one Mr. R. Dvorak has scored a goal this day.
Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.
Or the Oil during last year's playoffs.
Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD
Yeah, that's a concern. If only they played teams in the NE division instead of the NE division :-)
I've noticed a few more OTs this season (not statistically significant) and also noticed that OTs increases as the season progresses (pretty significantly).
However a difference of 53 on a sample of ~2000 goals is not significant due to the fact that one standard deviation = sqrt(2000) or better stated: mean (2000G/Season) = variance (2000 G/season). That being said it's worth watching...
Well, in terms of the number of goals scored in third periods, I think 53 is a sufficiently small number. It was stated right in the post to be a 6.3% drop.
Heya Javageek, since you seem able to do this kind of thing...
Is there a trend for more overtime and shootout games after nights and periods of inactivity. For instance the first night back after the All-Star break, Christmas break, deadline day, or nights immeidately following nights where there are very few games played.
I'd appreciate if you'd look ito because I am not smart.
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Flames PK is still showing serious signs of suckage, but the PP is now 8th in the league, 4th in the WC.
# posted by 
: March 03, 2007 12:33 pm
: March 03, 2007 12:33 pm Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.
# posted by : March 03, 2007 12:44 pm
: March 03, 2007 12:44 pm Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD. If the Canucks were a stock, it might be time to sell.
Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.
In case Sacamano cares to know, a one Mr. R. Dvorak has scored a goal this day.
# posted by : March 03, 2007 12:51 pm
: March 03, 2007 12:51 pm Man, that makes me happy. Now Flames fans know what it was like to watch their team in 03/04.
Or the Oil during last year's playoffs.
# posted by : March 03, 2007 1:15 pm
: March 03, 2007 1:15 pm Canucks are +15 in wins (incl. SO) and +7 in GD
Yeah, that's a concern. If only they played teams in the NE division instead of the NE division :-)
I've noticed a few more OTs this season (not statistically significant) and also noticed that OTs increases as the season progresses (pretty significantly).
However a difference of 53 on a sample of ~2000 goals is not significant due to the fact that one standard deviation = sqrt(2000) or better stated: mean (2000G/Season) = variance (2000 G/season). That being said it's worth watching...
Well, in terms of the number of goals scored in third periods, I think 53 is a sufficiently small number. It was stated right in the post to be a 6.3% drop.
Heya Javageek, since you seem able to do this kind of thing...
Is there a trend for more overtime and shootout games after nights and periods of inactivity. For instance the first night back after the All-Star break, Christmas break, deadline day, or nights immeidately following nights where there are very few games played.
I'd appreciate if you'd look ito because I am not smart.
Post a Comment
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