Wednesday, March 14, 2007

 

Flames Game Night: Bye-bye, Bigfoot

The Flames take on the Avalanche in Denver tonight (7PM MT, TSN), with a chance to the make a playoff spot all but mathematically official. Paul Stastny is still working that rookie point-scoring streak, and is starting to get some love for the Calder.

As you can see at left, that love is well deserved... Malkin is 7 points ahead entirely due to his greater PP time, where he's actually less productive than Stastny; the fact that Stastny kills penalties (2:23 PK time per game) should only serve to bolster his case, surely.

Hey, look what I just did! I fell victim to the same fallacy I alluded to (scoffed at) below re: MAB & Petersen. I implied that since the coach uses Stastny on the PK, that must mean that he's competent at it -- which is certainly no guarantee. Question -- or maybe this is a challenge to a joint like TSN.ca -- why doesn't anyone keep penalty killing stats? Here we are in 2007, and we're still assuming like suckers that the best penalty killers are the ones that keep getting thrown out there. Can't someone use the awesome power of the information superhighway to inform us who the most effective PKers really are? That seems like something that would be interesting to semi-casual fans, and it would certainly add an element to the debate over the Selke Trophy (or over the $$ value of various defensive-minded free agents). Get working on that, would you TSN?

(They won't, by the way. They'll spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on TSN Talent to chase rumours around, but won't spend $25k to have someone differentiate their stats page from Yahoo! or NHL.com).

Colorado is an explosive team with a particularly good PP at home. I'd like the Flames to start by taking less than 4 penalties in the 1st period; I'm pretty sure that would help the cause. I'd also like Roman Hamrlik to shake out of this brutal funk he's in.

Stempniak's (second) tying goal on Monday featured another baffling play by the Hammer: he's defending a 2-on-2, and David Backes has the puck on Phaneuf's side. Hamrlik wanders over to challenge Backes (Puzzler #1), and then when Backes moves the puck towards Stempniak -- in the area of ice Hammer has just vacated -- Hamrlik decides that this would be a good time to finish his check (Puzzler #2)... so at the approximate moment that his shoulder is hitting Backes' chest, Stempniak is sliding the puck under Kipper, untouched. I don't know what he could do for an encore tonight. If he steps on a broken stick, I'm turning the TV off.

I'm going to ignore precedent, and guess that it'll be a low-scoring game tonight. Calgary 3 (Primeau, Iginla, Huselius) Colorado 2 (Arnason, Klee). Go Flames.

Comments:

Behind the Net has plus minus statistics for when players are shorthanded, which sort of fits the bill.

But, yes, I'd love to see a statistical breakdown of the Selke candidates, something I said I was going to do about a month ago, but still haven't gotten around to.
 


Thanks JM, I will go check that out. I think what I would personally enjoy the most is a GA/TOI metric of some sort, ie as a rate.

For someone pulling information off of NHL.com gamesheets, I don't think it would be too hard to search for all goals against while shorthanded for a team, add up all the times a particular jersey number shows up, and compare to ice time. Since I've spelled it out, I should really step up and learn how to do it, but I am doing some heavy procrastinating as is right now.
 


I'll have that metric posted on my site within the next few minutes.
 


Haha, it turns out behindthenet *does* put it in terms of a rate. Here's how EDM penalty killers shake out in terms of PK +/- per 60 min.

Through Feb 18th:

Pisani
Tjarnqvist
Stoll
Reasoner
Hejda
Smith
Greene
Smid
Smyth
Staios
Petersen
Horcoff

There are obviously other factors to consider (which behind the net does indeed do so) such as who was on the ice with a player and whether that player tends to face the opposition's #1 or #2 unit but it's still interesting to look at.

Looks like one more way Fernando is kind of, sort of, almost giving full value for his paycheque.
 


Mirtle's post is up now. Like Earl said there, it's a damn good start.
 


"TSN Talent." Tee-hee
 


Close, Matt, but no cigar. You meant to say 3-2 Avalanche, right?
 


Andy, am I the only one shocked that the Flames lost on the road again?
 


"TSN Talent." Tee-hee

I think your tither was actually meant for SportsNet.
 


Really good game tonight. Kipper was on fire, and fought hard. This was a game that could have gone either way. Can't wait for the next one.
 


Really good game tonight. Kipper was on fire, and fought hard. This was a game that could have gone either way. Can't wait for the next one.

Wow, I really hope you were being sarcastic. A counted exactly one flame that decided to show up tonight.
 


I agree Calgary played terrible tonight, not their best effort.

It's a 2-sided coin for me, should I be happy the avs won in regulation? Or worried that they only won 3-2, thought it should have been 4 or 5 to 1.

Fear the Snow!!!
 


BEIJING, Nov. 19, according to Xinhua Taiwan's "Today" reported that Chen Shui-bian's four-day fasting guard for medical treatment, including the Oriental Hospital and the Panchiao to spend a wow power leveling total of nearly 20,000 yuan (NT, the same below) medical wow powerleveling expenses, as His health insurance card to stay in Taipei Detention Center, must first serve their own expense, the medical expenses from his detention in custody of the gold deduction, but Chen Shui-bian's custody, only 16,000 yuan deposit, the deduction is not enough, said the detention center, not wow gold part of the Will be asked to make up for the families or lawyers.
 

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