Monday, March 05, 2007

 

Final Pile-on

Electing not to pay Ryan Smyth's price is one of the more defensible moves Kevin Lowe has made lately. I happen to agree with most around these parts that it was the wrong decision -- while possible, I think it's unlikely that he'll find better value for that money -- but it's defensible, for reasons that have been outlined by Sacamano among others.

Once Lowe made that decision, trading Smyth was the obvious and correct move. But if anything, this move highlighted a previous, grievous error on Lowe's part.

**Oilers receive Ducks' pick if Ducks make the SCF
i.e. if the pick transfers, it will be ~30th overall.

Those returns are awfully comparable, aren't they? Lupul's presumed upside back on July 3rd was certainly higher that Robert Nilsson's is today, but they're in the same ballpark. The urgency factor? Yes yes, Pronger put a gun to Lowe's head, but unlike Smyth, Pronger's trade value wasn't about to vaporize if a deal wasn't finalized immediately.

Trade deadline time saw a lot of discussion of "assets". Chris Pronger @ $25M/4years is a tremendous asset. A Top 5 NHL D-man, signed for at least $1M/year less than what you would have to pay him on a fresh contract. Because Pronger demanded a trade, and the emotional implications that went with that off the playoff run, this deal seems to have been excluded from discussions of "worst trades in the past XXX", but it's a candidate.

For whatever reason, Hardball Lowe was at his most acquiescent when it came to the demands of the guy who deserved prompt action the least and who had no leverage. By accepting what was (let's stipulate) the best offer available right away, Lowe eliminated the likely possibility that another GM would have bolted upright in bed one October morning knowing it was imperative that his club acquire Pronger, for a price that yesterday seemed too high.

This leads into Lowe's next major failing, which is that he seems to have a poor understanding that his actions have an impact on his team beyond the tangible. Let's say he waited on Pronger; then the day after final cuts, he walks into the dressing room:
"Gentlemen, I know you're all wondering what's going on with Pronger, and you're eager to move forward. I'm having a problem, though. As most of you know, he's a superb player, and he's signed for 4 more years at below-market value. For whatever reason, all the offers I'm getting so far are for draft picks and young guys. Fuck that. We came within a game of winning the Cup last season, and we're gonna finish the job this time. We're built to win now, and we're going to get something for Pronger that will put us closer.

We're a very good team, and once a deal is finalized, we'll be that much better. Give 'er shit."

Instead we saw Wait & See, Monitor & Assess, We're Not Going To Overpay, etc.

The attitude and actions of leaders affect the people below them. Look: the forwards have underperformed. The team is a lot softer with Lupul and Sykora than they were with Pronger, Peca, Laraque, and Moreau. But there was one glaring area where the team was lacking in quality: the blueline. It was obvious before the season, it was obvious as the season progressed, and Lowe declined to do anything except Monitor & Assess. Of course that attitude was going to rub off on the team. You have to be a unique and hellaciously self-motivated individual to excel under these conditions (and, for your efforts, you got traded to the New York Islanders).

This kinda segues to the final, overarching indictment of Lowe and the Oilers organization, which is that they allowed whatever it was they had that was a near-championship squad dissolve into nothing, or rather, something completely un-special. It's impossible to avoid comparisons with the Flames here. You can't discount "circumstances" (luck) entirely, but cripes.

Let's sidestep the issue of on-ice performance. The Flames leveraged their run to the SCF Game 7 impressively. The organization talks and acts like they're one of the big dogs in the NHL. They bought an AHL team (Sutter is its GM too), and have their own guy running the bench there, with the primary mission of producing quality Calgary Flames players. They spend money because they think it'll improve the team. Hell, they just installed a massive new scoreboard thingy for $3.5M, for the same reasons as you or I might buy a plasma TV for our rec room: it looks cool, and they can afford it.
“The ENMAX Energy Board is part of our continued commitment to an enhanced game experience and a winning attitude,” said Flames President & CEO Ken King.

Kevin Lowe's words say we have the resources, we can spend 8 or 9 million dollars on a player, but his actions say We're plucky little Edmonton, with some prudent management and scouting and a few breaks, I think we can go far... oh, and doing things like invoking Billy Beane doesn't help.

That's the giveaway, really. I'm all for a disciplined approach to roster-building, but why would Kevin Lowe think it's appropriate to make an Oakland analogy? Seriously, Edmonton is a much, much better hockey market than Oakland is a baseball market. The A's have been good for most of this millenium, but have been in the bottom half for attendance every year.

Why shouldn't the Oilers be the St. Louis Cardinals? St. Louis isn't especially rich, or a massive NY/LA/CHI market, but baseball is #1 there and the franchise has a great history. The Cards don't pretend that they're the Yankees exactly, but they behave themselves like they're the best organization in baseball. Sometimes they lose a gamble, and pay a guy too much money who doesn't perform -- hey, it happens, and it certainly doesn't prevent them from finding and developing quality young players.

The Edmonton Oilers have leveraged a run to G7 of the SCF into a 21.6% increase in ticket prices, a trial balloon for a publicly-funded arena, and... nothing. It's either appalling or embarassing, maybe both.

Comments:

Fantastic post, Matt. Really well said.

I feel spoiled to have Ken King as President and an excellent ownership group. During one of my games at the Saddledome, Ken King was actually walking around in the cheap seats talking to fans, asking their opinions on anything under the sun related to the Flames and was very open to suggestions and criticism.

The EIG is at the opposite end of the spectrum -- an ivory tower of cronyism.
 


Fuck me that was good. I don't even know where to begin complimenting you. Now all I ask is that once people read this post, they keep going down the line to my crappy little bullet post. They work so well together. It's like we're separately working on the same concept album. "Wouldn't it be nice..."
 


Good stuff. Very interesting take.
 


The St. Lous Cardinals sell more merchandise and have a larger base of fans than every MLB team excepting the Yankees*. Not that it matters but they do manage to generate a substantial amount of revenue. They may not be in a compressed market, but they do have a lot of yahoo fans willing to drive a long way from the farm for games.

*Information gleaned from an article I read in the NY times a few seasons ago, so it might be different but not by much I imagine.
 


For whatever reason, Hardball Lowe was at his most acquiescent when it came to the demands of the guy who deserved prompt action the least and who had no leverage.

Bears repeating, as does the point that it's hard to take an organization's claims to be devoted to developing young talent seriously when they don't even have a fucking farm club. But then, maybe using the Oilers as the organizations de facto AHL team was part of the Master Plan too.
 


During one of my games at the Saddledome, Ken King was actually walking around in the cheap seats talking to fans, asking their opinions on anything under the sun related to the Flames and was very open to suggestions and criticism.

He wasn't so friendly to me. IIRC he called me deviant or something of that nature.
 


He wasn't so friendly to me. IIRC he called me deviant or something of that nature.

So he was just honest with you?

I'm wondering, is there a way we could get Mark Cuban to buy the Oilers?
 


Actually Sacamano, I believe he questioned your proclivities.

Or wait, did he meet you in a windowless room in the basement of the Dome and demand you take your Oilers jersey off? Maybe I'm thinking of something else.
 


That was the best post so far in the wake of the Smyth fiasco. I think it's fair to say you hit the nail on the head.
 


This is all spot on, Matt.

I guess the only defence one can make of Lowe's trading Pronger so quickly (the lupulification of the Pronger asset, so to speak) is that it avoided what would have been a constant media circus around the team had they gone into the season with Pronger untraded. Other teams would have had their budgets set by the start of the season, so Lowe might well have been unable to trade Pronger till the deadline. And the whole year would have been Pronger this, Pronger that, Pronger, Pronger, Pronger. Which would have led me, for one, to prong my eyes out with the jagged edge of a rusty tin can.

On the other hand, things don't really seem to have turned out better than that situation, do they?
 


I think maybe Cincinnati is a better analogy than St Louis, but your point is a good one. If I could stretch it a little, how frustrated our Toronto Maple Leaf fans that their buds ARE NOT the Yankees of hockey when they have the most money, the most fans, and SFA to show for the last 40 winters!
 


I think he traded for Lupul because he thought he was that good. The last time a player made a GM look this bad in a single season Pit Martin was spending his first year in Chicago.

A question I've been pondering is "can Lupul ever recover?" Seriously, I think it's a legit question. Clearly if he plays as badly next year as this there's no hope but by how much would he need to improve?

40 goals? +1?
 


This is a problem of hindsight, I think. As Lowetide has mentioned, no one could have anticipated Lupul would be this bad. And Lowe had a plan for the season, which was somewhat flawed, but which still promised one or possibly two rounds of the playoffs. It failed, but it was not unreasonable to assume that the Oil could finish 7th or 8th, and thereby secure some playoff money.

This reasonable gamble could not happen if Lowe held on to Pronger until the deadline; he would have been forced to openly declare the season lost, and in the process lose some public favor (maybe not so much, insofar as he could shift the blame onto Pronger, but surely it would cause some grumbling once the Oil started falling behind teh competitive Northwest).

But if you are talking long term success, success being defined as winning the cup profits be damned, yah, Lowe fucked up. But Lowe has more than one goal he is pursuing.
 


The St. Lous Cardinals sell more merchandise and have a larger base of fans than every MLB team excepting the Yankees

The larger fan base thing, if true, might be somewhat useful. As for the merchandising, it doesn't make a lick of difference. All merchandising revenue goes to Major League Baseball, and is distributed evenly throughout the 30 teams in the league. The Yankees, despite selling over 50% of all merchandise in the league (a number over 80% in the international markets*) glean no more revenue from t-shirt sales than the Montreal Expos.

Doesn't really relate to Ryan Smyth in any way shape or form, but it does make MLB/NHL parallels difficult. (Could you imagine the outcry from Tarawna if Maple Leaf paraphenalia was sold and the profits shared with the Buffalo Sabres?)



* Information gleaned from a discussion on ESPN Radio about baseball merchandising some time during the NHL lockout
 


boy Matt, for a second there you sounded like a typical Oilfan this past year! great post btw...

p.s If the Oilers are the St. Louis Cardinals, does that make the Flames the Chicago Cubs?

Jordan (Oiler and Cub fan)
 


As Lowetide has mentioned, no one could have anticipated Lupul would be this bad.

Well, depends on what you mean by 'this bad'. There were some warning signs, despite the fact that he led the '06 Mighty Ducks in postseason goals.

a) 6 of those 9 goals came against Colorado; he managed to only score in 2 of the other 13 playoff games.

b) he also led the team in postseason penalty minutes, a very suspect stat considering his playing style/role. He averaged a minor per game.

c) I dunno, before the trade this was my offseason take on the kid: "I am not entirely sure what to think of Lupul. For sure his shot is outstanding, but he is a bit prone to hooking calls and I’m not sure if he’s better as a threat on a checking line or on a scoring line. He should score more goals next year, but I’m not sure if it’s a few more or a lot more."

d) Also note a post on correlated ice time: Lupul "borrowed" offense from everyone.

Look, in general I like Lupul, but there was a point of recognition that the guy was not carrying the mail, despite the 4-goal game. In fact, I would say that probably that 4-goal game was probably the worst thing that could have happened to Lupul: expectations (and salary) had to rise, but really, the kid is what the kid is. He'll amount to something, but I don't think he can manage being the biggest threat on a team.

Sorry if this seems gloaty; just putting some of last year's thoughts out there.
 


This reasonable gamble could not happen if Lowe held on to Pronger until the deadline; he would have been forced to openly declare the season lost

I'd argue that without Lupul/Smid, Lowe likely would have taken a harder run at Dvorak. I'd rather have had Dvorak on this team than Lupul. That would have freed up another 500K in payroll to add to spend on whoever replaced Smid. I'm not so sure that it would have been a giveup play.

You have to wonder what Pronger would have brought in at the deadline. That's the time to trade a guy.

(Could you imagine the outcry from Tarawna if Maple Leaf paraphenalia was sold and the profits shared with the Buffalo Sabres?)

It is.
 


"You have to be a unique and hellaciously self-motivated individual to excel under these conditions (and, for your efforts, you got traded to the New York Islanders)."


At first glance at the above statement, I thought you were referring to MAB.
 


The Leafs paid out $11M I think (near that neighbourhood) to teams like Nashville.

And I do wish the Leafs were the Yankees of the NHL in more ways than just being hated by everyone else.

Good post Matt. The Pronger trade put the team on the backfoot right off the bat. When is Edmonton going to get it's own AHL club? What happened to that Google applet that Cosh made to track where the Oilers' prospects were located throughout the world?
 


Speaking of Cosh...

*crickets chirping*

Anybody seen him around lately?
 


Colby Coshery
Disappearing bloggery
Gone like our Smytty

Sorry--I think I've gotten the haiku virus from CIO
 


The St. Lous Cardinals sell more merchandise and have a larger base of fans than every MLB team excepting the Yankees*. Not that it matters but they do manage to generate a substantial amount of revenue.

The revenue sharing of merch sales was covered earlier. The numbers and rankings really bear out the Cardinals analogy.

The Cards are 12th overall in MLB club revenue, which is significantly lower than where the Oilers rank among NHL clubs revenue. It's even worse when you look at the dollars, because the Cards pull in about 40% of the revenue the Yankees get, while the Oil are much closer to the leader.

For those who are curious, the Cardinals spent 55.7% of revenues on player salaries -- a figure that looks remarkably similar to the NHL cap system's 54%.

So why aren't the Oilers as well-managed as the Cardinals? It's not for lack of money.
 


I thought I saw Cosh the other day sacrificing small animals in front of the statue of Gretzsky to seek to appease the fickle hockey gods.
 


That's it! Proclivities. What a guy.

The only major problem I have with this post is the title. I don't believe for a minute that it is going to be the final pile on.
 


The best thing we can say about Lupul right now is that he's "young" garbage who's making real money and is coming up a huge minus despite playing soft mintues for at least 70%, a rough guesstimate but I'll stick with it, of the time.

He isn't hard on getting the puck out of his zone and he isn't hard on keeping the puck in the other zone. He doesn't carry the puck through the N zone. He doesn't kill penalties. He's not any great shakes on the PP. He's making over 2 mill.

Seriously, he's garbage but he is young garbage.

As for Lowe holding onto Pronger? I said that from the day that fucking trade was made. A terrible terrible deal and if that's the best you can get for him then you wait.

That whole thing about the circus atmosphere of being asked about Pronger everyday, is that similar to the one where Smid sucks in a top four role or Lupul sucks in any role you ask of him?

Dennis
 

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