Sunday, March 04, 2007

 

After Hours or: How I Learned To Stop Thinking And Just Drink The Oil

Nice candy-coated episode of After Hours tonight. I may have to go to the dentist after that much sweetness. I swear to God the exact same questions are being passed from "journalist" to "journalist." And it was so obvious that the Oake and Hrudey were tip-toeing. You could practically see the apology in their eyes as they asked Kevin Lowe and Shawn Horcoff questions.

This was an excellent attempt at in-depth analysis:
Kelly Hrudey: "Kevin, how big is he?" (on Robert Nilsson)

I actually had to double-check that I heard correctly on this one.
Kelly Hrudey: "That's what good people do." (on Shawn Horcoff's statement that he probably tried a little too hard early in the season after signing a new contract extension)

The exchange below was my favourite. I'm paraphrasing, but not by much.
Scott Oake: Kevin, it's pretty much acknowledged that you've done no wrong as a general manager...

Kevin Lowe: Gosh, people out there will say you guys are throwing me softballs.

Scott Oake: Oh. I thought these questions were pretty tough.

Kelly Hrudey: Me too.

If anyone has a link to video of that After Hours episode, I'd sure like to post it on here. I'm not being crazy on this one. When the guy being interviewed becomes visibly uncomfortable with how light the questions are, you know something's wrong.

Some other notes

• I'd just like to point out to certain people (ahem, Rod), that Lowe kept on with the "salary cap is to blame" mantra tonight. Nothing about having to keep a budget. It's the cap. The "new world of the salary cap," I believe Lowe said.

• Someone sent in a question asking Hrudey and Oake why the Oilers didn't negotiate a deal with Smyth last summer. Hrudey, with a straight face, said that the Oilers couldn't do it last summer because they couldn't figure out what his vale was. They could figure out the value for every other player they signed, of course, but there was some mystical shroud that clouded their minds in doing their homework on Smyth. Hogwash. As was noted in the Hot-Stove, they thought he was only worth 4 million. Smyth responded by playing his ass off, and they got caught with their pants down (4 million was too low to start with anyway).

• Lowe refused to answer why, if the two teams were only 100k apart, the Oilers couldn't make the deal happen. Oake backed off.

• The Satellite Hot-Stove was interesting. Here's the video. The craziest part was Lebrun stating that Smyth offered to essentially return the extra $100,000 he would be getting by paying for a $100,000 luxury box for the remainder of his contract. Yet the Oilers turned it down. So much for the part where Ryan Smyth was a money grubbing hockey player refusing to budge on 100k. Turns out he set a price based on principle and a desire for respect, but was willing to give the extra money back. I know, I know, it doesn't save the Oilers cap room by doing such a thing. The point is, people should stop portraying Smyth as a guy who only wanted to get paid. There aren't many of those people on this site, but we all know they are out there (you can start with "Mr. Never An Elite Player But Didn't Mind Getting New York Money Himself," Kevin Lowe).

• I wonder what the impact of the Smyth trade/no playoffs has been on local businesses that show the games.

• I only saw the last period, but Rexall sounded like a funeral home. It also looked and sounded like there were way more Flames fans at the game than usual. They were the only ones I could hear. I bet quite a few people passed their tickets on to people who might actually enjoy watching the Oilers lose another game.

• One small consolation for the year would have been seeing Steve Staios beat the snot out of Dion Phanuef. I was positive they were going to go, too. Looked like they planned it out and everything. Unfortunately, a Staios penalty near the end of the game eliminated such a possibility. I'm a man more sinned against than sinning!!!


***Update*** Tyler has a post up on the Satellite Hot-Stove exchange.

Comments:

Smyth offered to essentially return the extra $100,000 he would be getting by paying for a $100,000 luxury box for the remainder of his contract...I know, I know, it doesn't save the Oilers cap room by doing such a thing.

Two unrelated points. First, to be fair, management claims the suites are a hot commodity, and sold out with a waiting list. This could be bluster (especially if we're talking five-year lease, b/c most of the suites run on much shorter contracts), or it could reflect an insincere or naive offer on Smyth's part. But if the EIG didn't have a box to offer, they could always have defaulted to their tried and true 'donate to the foundation' and then spent Smyth's money earning goodwill for themselves, outside the confines of caps and HRR.

Second point. If there was space available, it's a great offer. Remember what the CBA says: teams only include 65% of revenue from luxury box sales in club-affiliated arenas in the definition of HRR (100% of luxury box ticket sales are included).

It nets out like this for EIG:

Smyth Salary increase: (100)
Luxury Box lease: 100
Player's share of lease: (35.1)
Net EIG CF: (35.1)

If the story's true, the unbridgeable "100,000 gap" is really $35,100.
 


Turns out he set a price based on principle . . .

Why is this seen as a positive in Smyth's case, but as a negative in Lowe's case?
 


Two unrelated points. First, to be fair, management claims the suites are a hot commodity, and sold out with a waiting list. This could be bluster (especially if we're talking five-year lease, b/c most of the suites run on much shorter contracts), or it could reflect an insincere or naive offer on Smyth's part.

Agreed, and Tyler made the point in his post on the subect. But like Tyler also noted, he could have dumped that money back into the Oil Kings or something. The possibility was there for a deal.
 


Why is this seen as a positive in Smyth's case, but as a negative in Lowe's case?

My point was that Smyth deserves as much respect on the issue as the hero worshippers are giving to Lowe. Watching Scott Oake tell Lowe how good he was last night, I was pretty certain you wrote the question for him.
 


You mean like all the Aretha Franklin you've been throwing Lowe's way . . . ?
 


Why is this seen as a positive in Smyth's case, but as a negative in Lowe's case?

I don't think many people believe that Lowe set his price on principle.
 


Andy:
>>I'd just like to point out to certain people (ahem, Rod), that Lowe kept on with the "salary cap is to blame" mantra tonight. Nothing about having to keep a budget. It's the cap. The "new world of the salary cap," I believe Lowe said. <<

Calling me out huh? :-)

Well, I can't know exactly what Lowe was referring to, but here's a couple thoughts on the matter:
- "new world of the salary cap" doesn't preclude having their own budget
- as avi pointed out elsewhere, their current budget should allow for spending to the cap anyway

So, with the current cap number, there may not be any difference between the two numbers, on their own.

Where the difference possibly comes in is risk. In the old CBA, a large contract wasn't the risk it is today. You can't dump an expensive contract to a rich team anymore, or even pay a portion of it anymore. Consequently, there isn't any chance of getting "out from under" a big contract. The risk level of a long term contract is much higher in the "new cap world". The margin for error is much smaller now.

For example, Washington trading Jagr to the Rangers couldn't happen in the "cap world". The Caps (hehe) would've been stuck with Jagr.

Risk like that has to factor into what the team is willing to offer.

Is that what Lowe was referring to? Perhaps. Perhaps not.
 


Weirdly, Lowe hinted last night that Smyth would have forced his hand to sign a deal if they were in the playoff race.

Somehow, I blame Chris Pronger.
 


Yeah, Lowe mentioned the same thing earlier in the week on the Fan590/Sportsnet (Primetime Sports). After Lowe was gone, the hosts of that interview (Bob McCown (sp?) and Steven Brunt) were surprised Lowe answered the question. They were expecting Lowe would use something like "well, that's a hypothetical, and I don't answer those". Then, they figured playoff gates would have made more than enough to bridge any gap. More or less makes sense really.

Blaming CFP sounds good to me. ;-)
 


>>Someone sent in a question asking Hrudey and Oake why the Oilers didn't negotiate a deal with Smyth last summer. ... As was noted in the Hot-Stove, they thought he was only worth 4 million. Smyth responded by playing his ass off, and they got caught with their pants down (4 million was too low to start with anyway).<<

Yep. Lowe noted earlier in the week on the Fan590 that they'd only made a token offer to Smyth in training camp, and it was quickly rejected. Lowe also noted his priorities last summer were signing the team's free agents, not extensions. Gamble on their part, and it blew up. Funny how easy it is to get the gambles right in hindsight.
 


>Lowe refused to answer why, if the two teams were only 100k apart, the Oilers couldn't make the deal happen. Oake backed off.<<

Probably because it wasn't really 100K. At least according to the Smyth camp. HNIC reported that Smyth denied the difference was only 100K...

Which perhaps throws into question the whole luxury box story.
 


kevin lowe was pretty much an elite defenceman in the NHL during his prime. a stay at home type but still frighteningly good at what he did.
 


Lowe also noted his priorities last summer were signing the team's free agents, not extensions.

Sure, that's what he says, but it's because no one calls him on it. Same as always. Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios were both signed to extensions this season.

kevin lowe was pretty much an elite defenceman in the NHL during his prime. a stay at home type but still frighteningly good at what he did.

I loved Kevin Lowe as a player, but there is absolutely no way he was an elite defenceman.
 


I loved Kevin Lowe as a player, but there is absolutely no way he was an elite defenceman.

But Andy, he must be elite, he's a friend of Gretz!
 


>>Sure, that's what he says, but it's because no one calls him on it. Same as always. Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios were both signed to extensions this season.<<

Uh, both extensions were signed *after* the season started. Like I said, Lowe indicated the FAs were the priorities in the summer. Exactly what are you calling him on? I call you on another red herring.

Apparently Oiler management decided to not talk contract with Smyth during the season (may have been a mutual decision, who knows). Obviously that changed within the last month. Rightly or wrongly that was their approach. Afterwards, it's easy to see they should've signed him last summer.
 


I watched K-Lowe last night, and the $100,000 figure was thrown out there as though it were an acknowledged fact. While K-Lowe did not admit that was the difference, I found it striking that he did not say "No, you're wrong it was more than that" or "It was more complicated than that", either of which would have been perfectly acceptable and logical statements if this deal broke down over something other than $100,000.

There has been some trash talk here and else where that the Flames face the same issue next spring with Jarome and Kipper. That is so, but the Flames are not managed by a bunch of buffoons. I promise you this: On March 3, 2008, Flames fans will not be crying the blues that Jarome was traded for a a bag of hockey pucks and a few sticks. We won't be crying about trading Kipper, because Sutter will have the foresight to renegotiate and extend his contract this summer.

Go Flames
 


Uh, both extensions were signed *after* the season started. Like I said, Lowe indicated the FAs were the priorities in the summer. Exactly what are you calling him on?

So he just whipped up those deals the day before? And doesn't he have an Assistant GM or staffers to help him? It's a cop-out to say you don't have the time to look at re-signing your top player.

Funny how easy it is to get the gambles right in hindsight.

Afterwards, it's easy to see they should've signed him last summer.

I'm pretty sure that at the time, we were all asking why Smyth wasn't a priority. We did not come to this late.
 


>>So he just whipped up those deals the day before? And doesn't he have an Assistant GM or staffers to help him? It's a cop-out to say you don't have the time to look at re-signing your top player.<<

Andy, that's quibbling with priorities. I'm not objecting to that. Go ahead a disagree with those all you want. Just don't use Staios & Moreau deals as 'evidence' of summer extensions in a warped attempt at contradicting Lowe's statements. It's a flawed argument as there's plenty of evidence backing up Lowe's recent statements re: FAs vs. extensions last summer:
- number of FAs signed last summer: at least 8 (Roloson, Pisani, Hemsky, Horcoff, Reasoner, Stoll, Sykora, and Tjarnqvist all signed to deals in July & August...Hedja too?)
- number of extensions signed by Staios and Moreau last summer: 0 (Moreau signed Oct. 6th; Staios signed Nov. 21st). Definitely not summer in Edmonton. Last November particularly...but lets not talk about snow removal. ;-)

All I'm saying is you haven't caught Lowe in a contradiction or a lie or revisionist history or anything. Lowe's statements that negotiations to extend players weren't a summer priority appear to be true. Therefore, there's nothing to call him on.

Misplaced priorities perhaps...but not a wrong statement (in the realm of "2nd year in the league: :-).

BTW, the hindsight part relates to how Smyth is on pace for a career season. Obviously they gambled on his asking price. And lost.

All of that said, they did manage to put a substantial deal in front of Smyth before the deadline. A deadline in which the Oilers were clearly out of the playoffs. Were they in the hunt, I seriously doubt the trade would have happened.

As for Peter crowing Flames fans won't have to endure this next season, don't be so sure. The playoff race will have a bearing. It did this year for the Oil, and it will next year in Calgary. If the Flames are out of the race, don't count on Iginla for 82 games...unless they decide to unload Kipper. Only a Flames fan could be proud of management that has only two players signed beyond 07-08. Enjoy the view while it lasts Peter.
 


I watched after hours after the game and yeah -- i figured you guys would have a conniption.

"it's generally accepted taht you've made no mistakes, Kevin..."


I laughed out loud at that. And I'm not even an Oiler fan.
 


All I'm saying is you haven't caught Lowe in a contradiction or a lie or revisionist history or anything. Lowe's statements that negotiations to extend players weren't a summer priority appear to be true. Therefore, there's nothing to call him on.

I'm not so sure of that. I'm certain that the "summer" part was changed from an earlier version of "early season." But there have been so many posts, stories, interviews that I can't find where he said it. So I could be wrong, but... :)
 

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