Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Subject change
Since we started this site last season, I've been tracking and posting the standings in quarters. I still like it, and find it useful and interesting. One of these days or years, I hope to do some more sa-tistical analysis on the numbers; I'd like to know if team performance in any particular quarter has a significantly stronger (or weaker) correlation to overall finish and/or to postseason success. It's all part of our larger effort here to win money gambling on the playoffs understand NHL hockey a little better. Here are the results for each team's Games 41-60 (outlined), along with previous quarters and totals.
Please note that the Goal Differential numbers are from the Standings page, and thus include SO winners (e.g. if you excluded the Shootout goal, CGY would be +16, VAN +14, minor differences).
The main item that jumps out at me here is OOF! -- was Anaheim ever terrible in the 3rd quarter. 5 regulation wins in 20 games. Obviously the injuries were a factor, but that's terrible nonetheless. The silver lining for them, such as it is, continues to be that their best success has come against other probable playoff teams (they had losses to EDM, COL, STL, and CBJ in this stretch, but beat DET, SJS, and DALx2).
I pay a lot less attention to the East than I do to the West, so maybe some of this is beyond obvious, but:
Please note that the Goal Differential numbers are from the Standings page, and thus include SO winners (e.g. if you excluded the Shootout goal, CGY would be +16, VAN +14, minor differences).The main item that jumps out at me here is OOF! -- was Anaheim ever terrible in the 3rd quarter. 5 regulation wins in 20 games. Obviously the injuries were a factor, but that's terrible nonetheless. The silver lining for them, such as it is, continues to be that their best success has come against other probable playoff teams (they had losses to EDM, COL, STL, and CBJ in this stretch, but beat DET, SJS, and DALx2).
I pay a lot less attention to the East than I do to the West, so maybe some of this is beyond obvious, but:- The arcs of Buffalo and Ottawa are almost exactly reversed from last season. This year it's Buffalo's 1st-quarter dominance that's padding their overall lead. Note the Sabres' consistent decline by both measures through the three quarters.
- Also, much like the Leafs last season, the Habs' brutal 3rd quarter tanked what was otherwise a pretty good season.
- I don't know what happened to Carolina (even setting aside the Cup win, they were consistently good all last season), but it's hard to call it "Stanley Cup Hangover" when your 3rd quarter is quite a bit worse than your first half.
# posted by Matt @ 10:40 am 
Comments:
Matt -
There's something wrong with this post - it doesn't seem to say anything about Ryan Smyth.
Tyler
Great post, very interesting to look at. It's hard to imagine how Ottawa simultaneously had such a great goal differential and awful record in the beginning of the year. Anyone with half a brain knew they were going to come around but it was fun to watch the media cry about it, that much is sure!
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Matt -
There's something wrong with this post - it doesn't seem to say anything about Ryan Smyth.
Tyler
# posted by 
: February 28, 2007 11:10 am
: February 28, 2007 11:10 am Great post, very interesting to look at. It's hard to imagine how Ottawa simultaneously had such a great goal differential and awful record in the beginning of the year. Anyone with half a brain knew they were going to come around but it was fun to watch the media cry about it, that much is sure!
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