Intrigued by the fact the the Oilers have yet to sign Ryan Smyth, or make a significant trade to improve their roster, I thought I'd take a look at the team's cap totals and depth charts for this season, and the next three seasons. Basically, I am unconvinced that it will cost too much to keep Ryan Smyth here, and want to see what the numbers tell me. It's not going to be perfect, because I don't know things like which prospects will make the team in the future or how many games they'll play in a season, the future price of RFA's, the future price of UFA's, which players will want to stay here, which players will want to come here, which players will want to leave, the cap limit the year after next, etc.. It's a lot of guessing. But I thought I might become more well-informed by painting a picture for the next four years, and seeing what it tells me. Hopefully others can chip in, and we can get a better idea about things. The salary cap numbers are all courtesy of Irish Blues, and should be up-to-date as of yesterday.

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2006-2007

Let's start off with this year. Here's what we know: the salary cap for the 2006-2007 NHL season is $44 million (unless you are Lou Lamoriello; then it can be anything you want). All the stories at the beginning of the year speculated that the Oilers would want to float around the $39-$40 million mark for the season. The current cap count on Irish Blues site says that the Oilers have in fact already spent $41,435,122 million. That would leave them with $2,669,878 to spend on the rest of the season, if they chose to spend to the cap limit. A new story in USA today says that the Oilers have spent $41.2 million, and have $3.03 million in cap space. I believe the difference is that the USA Today numbers include injury exemptions, whereas Irish Blues numbers do not. I'm not sure, but either way, it's close. The point is, the Oilers have the space to spend on additions this year, even if they don't trade back someone on their roster. As Mirtle notes, "teams will have to pay roughly 22 per cent of any player salaries they pickup on Feb. 27," and, "you can multiply a team's available cap space by 4.56 to determine the amount of total player salary they can accumulate on deadline day." The USA Today story has a list of the top players rumoured to be traded before the deadline next Tuesday. Think the Oilers need defencemen? Well, they could acquire Sheldon Souray, Aaron Miller, Bryan Berard and Eric Brewer, give nothing up on their current roster, and still have around a million dollars left over to play with. None of this is really news, of course, and just because you can acquire those players doesn't mean you should (especially if you are giving up too much in terms of prospects and draft picks), but it would be erroneous for anyone to say that the Oilers can't acquire players on February 27th because they are too close to the cap. The choice to not spend money right now is solely dictated by ownership's personal budget, and player personnel decisions.

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2007-2008

Player	2007-2008 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Jarret Stoll	$2.2 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Jason Smith	$1.976 million
Devan Dubnyk	$984,200
Marty Reasoner	$950,000
Marc Pouliot	$942,400
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Tom Gilbert	$907,500
Rob Schremp	$780,556
Danny Syvret	$725,000
Slava Trukhno	$683,333
JF Jacques	$668,333
Jonas Almtorp	$587,500
Troy Bodie	$581,667
Patrick Thoresen	$570,000
Stephane Goulet	$541,667
Zach Stortini	$534,333
Bryan Young	$533,333
Liam Reddox	$508,333
Sebastien Bisaillon	$500,000
Fredrik Johansson	$500,000
Tyler Spurgeon	$500,000
Tim Sestito	$487,500
Ryan Smyth	UFA
Petr Sykora	UFA
Daniel Tjarnqvist	UFA
Peter Nedved	UFA
Jan Hejda	UFA
Jussi Markkanen	UFA
Toby Petersen	UFA
Raffi Torres	RFA
Matt Greene	RFA
Alexei Mikhnov	RFA
Jeff Deslauriers	RFA
Kyle Brodziak	RFA
Brock Radunske	RFA
Mathieu Roy	RFA
Brad Winchester	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$38,455,089
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$31,267,000

Legend
• Players on on the depth charts may be out of position.
• The depth charts only include players signed for that year, and players who have played on the team in 06/07 (so prospects like Grebeshkov, Schremp and Dubnyk are not included. Nor are unsigned players like Ryan Smyth, Raffi Torres or Matt Greene). The depth chart therefore gets smaller and smaller as the years go on.
• The cap total for players on the depth chart assumes a full season of play, which may not in fact be how it pans out.

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return: Raffi Torres, Matt Greene, Brad Winchester, Mathieu Roy, Kyle Brodziak
Players Unlikely To Return: Peter Nedved, Jussi Markkanen, Alexei Mikhnov
Prospects Who May Make The Roster: Denis Grebeshkov, Jeff Deslauriers, Rob Schremp, Devan Dubnyk
Uncertain: Ryan Smyth, Peter Sykora, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jan Hejda, Toby Petersen

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2008-2009

Player	2008-2009 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Devan Dubnyk	$984,200
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Rob Schremp	$780,556
Slava Trukhno	$683,333
Stephane Goulet	$541,667
Bryan Young	$533,333
Liam Reddox	$508,333
Sebastien Bisaillon	$500,000
Tyler Spurgeon	$500,000
Jason Smith	UFA
Marty Reasoner	UFA
Jarret Stoll	RFA
Marc Pouliot	RFA
Tom Gilbert	RFA
Danny Syvret	RFA
JF Jacques	RFA
Jonas Almtorp	RFA
Troy Bodie	RFA
Patrick Thoresen	RFA
Zach Stortini	RFA
Fredrik Johansson	RFA
Tim Sestito	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$26,824,856
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$21,793,434

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return:Jarret Stoll, Marc Pouliot, Tom Gilbert, Danny Syvret, JF Jacques, Patrick Thoresen, Zach Stortini
Players Unlikely To Return:
Prospects Who May Make The Roster: Devan Dubnyk, Rob Schremp, Slava Trukhno, Tyler Spurgeon
Uncertain: Jason Smith, Marty Reasoner

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2009-2010

Player	2009-2010 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Dwayne Roloson	UFA
Shawn Horcoff	UFA
Joffrey Lupul	RFA
Devan Dubnyk	RFA
Ladislav Smid	RFA
Rob Schremp	RFA
Slava Trukhno	RFA
Stephane Goulet	RFA
Bryan Young	RFA
Liam Reddox	RFA
Sebastien Bisaillon	RFA
Tyler Spurgeon	RFA
Total, All Signed Players	$11,300,000
Total, Players On Depth Chart (See Below)	$11,300,000

(click image to enlarge)

Players Likely To Return: Joffrey Lupul, Devan Dubnyk, Ladislav Smid, Rob Schremp, Slava Trukhno
Players Unlikely To Return: Dwayne Roloson
Prospects Who May Make The Roster:
Uncertain: Shawn Horcoff

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Here's what we know: as the USA Today story notes, the salary cap for the 07/08 season is expected to jump up to $47 or $48 million dollars. The story also indicates that many teams will choose to not max out on the cap. They aren't referenced in the story, but the Oilers are certainly going to be one of those teams. Darren Dreger noted in an article a couple weeks ago that the Oilers would like the cap to be around $40 million, so I expect that is the most they want to spend.

In looking at the Oilers cap payroll for the 07/08 season, therefore, several things pop up. First off, their payroll, if you included every single player they had signed for next year, would be around $38.5 million. That places the team about $10 million away from the cap limit, and right up against their own probable budget. Many of the players in that total are prospects playing in the minors or only getting part-time ice in the show, though. So that number is a bit misleading. It's probably better to start with players who are signed next year, and who have played in the NHL this year. That still isn't perfect, as players like Tom Gilbert, Marc Pouliot, and Danny Syvret are still at the beginning of their careers, but I think it's better than leaving them off. That roster--Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, Fernando Pisani, Joffrey Lupul, Ethan Moreau, Marc Pouliot, Patrick Thoresen, Marty Reasoner, Zach Stortini, JF Jacques, Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Ladislav Smid, Danny Syvret, Tom Gilbert and Dwayne Roloson--costs around $31.2 million, assuming all of those players play in the NHL all year. That leaves around $17 million in space if the Oilers spent to the cap limit, and around $9 from their own $40 million barrier. It also leaves them with some holes in the depth department. Raffi Torres and Matt Greene are Restricted Free Agents who the team will most certainly need to re-sign. The team will need a back-up goalie. Newly acquired defenceman Denis Grebeshkov needs to be signed, and at this point and time seems to be slotted in for next year. Then there are the Unrestricted Free Agents: Petr Sykora, Daniel Tjarnqvist, Jan Hejda, and Ryan Smyth. Adding all those players only bumps the depth chart up to the way it is now. It doesn't include any off-season additions on defence, which is where most people believe the Oilers need to improve.

Let's play the guessing game. Let's say, in addition to the players already on my 07/08 depth chart, the Oilers add the following players for the following amount to their depth chart:

Raffi Torres (LW): $1.75 million (makes $875,000 in 06/07)
Matt Greene (D): $975,000 (makes $925,000 in 06/07)
Jeff Deslauriers (G): $633,500 (same as what he makes in 06/07)
Denis Grebeshkov (D): $915,100 (what Ladislav Smid makes in 06/07)
Daniel Tjarnqvist (D): $1.7 million (makes $1.625 in 06/07)
Jan Hejda (D): $1.3 million (makes $942,400 in 06/07)

Again, assuming everyone now on the depth chart plays the full season in the NHL--which isn't going to happen, but might be balanced out by potential underestimations in those signings above--the Oilers cap total for 07/08 is now up to $37,625,500. That is around $11 million away from the cap max, and just over $2 from the Oilers assumed budget maximum. Yet Petr Sykora, Ryan Smyth and a top four UFA defenceman remain unsigned. Not a problem if the Oilers spend to the cap max. You could give Smyth an average of $5.5 million a year, Sykora another $2.9, and have around $2.6 left to sign another defenceman. But if the Oilers stick to that $40 million budget, they are going to be hard-pressed to even sign Smyth, let alone Sykora (or a comparable) and another defenceman.

I'm surely overextending what the Oilers will spend in 06/07 by including so many prospects and young players on the depth chart, but I still think the conclusion is that, without dumping some bigger salaries, or spending beyond their own budget maximum, they can't keep Ryan Smyth. The room is available after 07/08, but that simply doesn't matter.

Uggh. I don't like this answer. Not one bit. I must be doing something wrong. Let's re-do the depth chart and salary table again.

(click image to enlarge)

Leaving Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Syvret, Jacques, Sykora and a UFA d-man out of the equation, this is what I get.

Player	2007-2008 Salary (US$)
Ales Hemsky	$4.1 million
Dwayne Roloson	$3,666,667 million
Shawn Horcoff	$3.6 million
Steve Staios	$2.7 million
Fernando Pisani	$2.5 million
Joffrey Lupul	$2,311,667 million
Jarret Stoll	$2.2 million
Ethan Moreau	$2 million
Jason Smith	$1.976 million
Raffi Torres	$1.75 million
Daniel Tjarnqvist	$1.7 milion
Jan Hejda	$1.3 million
Matt Greene	$975,000
Marty Reasoner	$950,000
Marc Pouliot	$942,400
Ladislav Smid	$915,100
Jeff Deslauriers	$633,500
Patrick Thoresen	$570,000
Zach Stortini	$534,333
Sub-Total	$35,324,167
Ryan Smyth	$5.5 million
Total	$40,324,167

Okay, that's more like it. Totally doable. Of course, I could be off on my guesstimates for the RFA's and UFA's, which would skew things. It also means the Oilers would end up with pretty much the same roster as the one that is in 9th place right now, although everyone will be a year older (good and bad). Again, if they spend near the cap max, the Oilers are in pretty good shape for next year. If they don't, and things stay the same, they will be hard-pressed to sign Smyth and improve the roster with external transactions.

There are other options as well. They could not re-sign Tjarnqvist and Hejda, use the money from both to target one UFA defenceman, and play a kid. They could sign Hejda and dress a kid, and use the extra money for Smyth or a forward UFA. They could also brainwash Lupul, and train him to kill the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Who knows? It's late, and my head hurts, so that will be all the guessing for now. I'll leave it to others to tell me what can and should be done. It seems that the obvious thing to do is spend to the league salary cap maximum. I mean, the EIG and Kevin Lowe told us the "new NHL" would allow the Oilers to compete, and keep their star players. It would be disingenuous for them to change their story now, wouldn't it?

On that laughable note, I'm off to bed.