Get over it. 5.4 million/year for 5 years was an overpayment already. You really wanted them to pay more than that to keep him? For anything other than sentimental reasons? Puh-leeze.

The whole line of argument in that Barnes article pisses me off.

His suggestion that the Oilers should have overpaid for Smyth because he is a "heart and soul" guy, is absolutely as offensive as the suggestion that Smyth should have taken less because he is a "home-town boy".
 

At some point, it's not overpaying, it's paying what things cost. You care to wager on what Ryan Smyth will cost on the open market?
 

5.4 million/year for 5 years was an overpayment already.

What market are you looking at?

For anything other than sentimental reasons? You do a discredit to his value by being so simplistic. Intagibles do not equal sentimentality. It's a shame you think this way, considering what you'd likely pay for Radek Dvorak to return.
 

At some point, it's not overpaying, it's paying what things cost.

I guess you're not a comparison shopper, then. Because markets never over-value commodities relative to comparables, right? Especially not when there are artificial deadlines on transactions.

What's strange about all this is that virtually everybody (including Grabia's buddy Barnes) admits that it would have been an overpayment. But they wanted to overpay because he is "heart and soul".

You care to wager on what Ryan Smyth will cost on the open market?

No, I don't. And I'm glad that Lowe wasn't willing to wager on that either. Otherwise we may well have ended up with no Smyth and no return.
 

The only way the 'value' for Smyth makes sense, though, is if you believe that a)Lowe is going to use a lot of these draft choices/prospects to wheel and deal this summer to rebuild quickly. b)Lowe is basically punting the Oil's window down the street for 3-4 years when some of these drafts can/will be difference makers. The problem if its (b) is that you might as well sell Roloson and Jason Smith too, because they'll be long gone before this team gathers itself again.

Another problem is that the bottom feeders in the West are getting better. Chicago'll be a threat next year, and St. Louis under Andy Murray is ten games over 500. The Oilers can easily become a non-playoff team for years.
 

I like how Lowe deviously used semantics in his press conference.

Early on, he denied that this was a financial decision and called it a hockey one.

Then he lays this gem:
"I really felt all along the deal would get done," Lowe said. "It was really down to the 11th hour when we realized, financially, it wasn't going to get done."

The truth is all hockey decisions are financial ones, even moreso now with the cap in place.

Also sacamano, I obviously can't speak for Barnes or Grabia, but my reasons for keeping Smyth aren't based on sentimentality they're based on two key facts:

1) Ryan Smyth provides good production even at $5.5MM - $6.0MM/yr. He plays against top opposition at ES and he has consistently generated points and goal differential at even strength while doing so. According to Desjardins' site, Smyth and his linemates draw far more PIM than they take when he is on the ice. In fact he's 9th in the league by this measure, which strengthens the argument that he's an elite player at ES. Lastly, Smyth led all Oilers in PPGF/hr while he was on the ice last season and he's second on the team this year - ie. his impact on the PP is at least as profound as that of Pronger or Hemsky.

2) This team signed Moreau, Horcoff, Staios, Pisani and Roloson to 3+ year deals. They have made a considerable investment to win in the next 2-3 years. Not keeping Ryan Smyth significantly hinders those chances and utterly failing to replace him with an NHL-ready player even for next year is a disgrace. I guarantee you he will not replace Ryan Smyth with equivalent production for the same or less money on the UFA market. It will not happen. A quick glance at the depth chart will tell you they aren't filling it internally either.

Apparently you're not willing to hold Lowe accountable for not delivering a competitive team given the substantial resources he has at hand. Personally, I think he has failed miserably.
 

It's not the trading Smyth that makes this so painful (well, obvs. that's a huge part) it's the fact that we're right back where we were in the bad ol' days. Once again, we're forced to watch a key roster player walk away for some sketchy prospects and a bunch of picks. Which means, even if everything works out and the return does pan out (and, based on what many are saying about O’Marra and Nillson, that’s not too fucking likely), we should be looking at a real contender in about, oh, 6-8 years? And frankly, I think we've all eaten enough of that particular chocolate to know that its resemblance to feces is not purely coincidental.

Unlike so many others, I'm not confident that Lowe is going to spend the money he saved on UFAs for the very simple reason that he'd have to overpay anyway, something he (or rather, his paymasters) are reluctant to do. If he does and we come out of this summer with at least two impact free agents (including a D-man), I’ll accept that there’s a method to Lowe’s madness. But if we come out of the summer with all our first round picks and the EIG’s now $7-10M cushion intact, I reserve the right to kick Lowe and anyone who calls this deal a good one for the Oilers square in the nuts.
 

When you see how much other teams or playing for mediocre players (Kubina, yikes, Samsonov, ugh, etc), it doesn't take much to see that the market is changing. You can get bargains still, but it's also easier to break the bank on an average player who won't make a difference. Yes, $5.75 or whatever is overpaying, but with psycho GMs all over the place overpaying more for crap, it still makes sense to shell out the money for a player that you know will bring it, night in, night out. That's $5.75 for guaranteed 1st line performance.

And looking at the purely business side of things, is it worth saving an extra $0.5 million a year when doing so alienates your fanbase? I'm interested to see if the Oilers will still sellout Rexall next season. It could be a costly decision in the pocketbook as well.
 

I really thought the Oilers were going to trade for a defenceman. I was thinking, maybe, Lupul, Smid and a 1st and 2nd rounder to Anaheim for Scott Niedermayer. That would have really been just a straight-across exchange of assets, because look at the value the Oilers gave up to acquire those players--oh, forget it.

Of course, they also could have just traded Lupul to whomever would take him, and freed up his salary for Smyth. Just a thought...
 

I'm interested to see if the Oilers will still sellout Rexall next season.

Of course they will. Nichols could walk to centre ice and take a deuce on the logo while wearing a Flames jersey and the crowds would still pour in. Because hey, unconditionally supporting a team that gives the apperance of having no interest in its fans or winning is, apparently, what sports fan-dom is all about. Or so I'm told.
 

God damn it I lost my goddamned comment. And it was about a novel long. It began with fantasizing about Neidermayer coming here, and ended by saying that Edmonton should be willing to pay more for Smytty because we genuinely get more out of him than any other team would/will. He's not going to be for the Islanders what he was for the Oilers regardless of what reputation precedes him. He'll play well, but he won't act as a tether to the team and he's not going to walk into a leadership position.

Urgh, it was better before. Quite sure now that I'm not sober yet. Don't tell anyone.
 

Riv : re: 1)

Will Smyth still have those numbers / rankings in four or five years?

I'd be happy with $6MM for 3 years. For 5 years makes me double think.

I recall some people in the oilogosphere were a little wary of Pronger making 6.25 in his fifth year here...
 

My thoughts on this are as follows:

1. I agree with most of what Mustafa has to say on this subject.

2. The thing that bothers me about this trade is that they didn't clear out players like Sykora and Markannen as well.

3. As far as Smyth goes, emotions aside, moving him was the right move. He's having a very good year, but we're going to be paying him based on future production, not current production. His production is likely to drop, and the injuries he incurs will increase in frequency given his style of play. He may be a $5.5 million player in 2007, but will he still be worth that much in 2009 or 2010? Doubtful.

4. Let's be realistic. The team as it was constituted before the trade deadline probably wasn't making the playoffs, and even if Lowe had been agressive and made a move to acquire a defenseman, I don't think the ones who were available (Stuart, Zhitnik, Norstrom) would have brought the Oil that much closer to a playoff spot. The situation wasn't looking much brighter next year either.

5. Overpaying to keep Smyth would be an acceptable move if they felt they had a team that could realistically contend for the Stanley Cup over the next 2-3 years. But they don't, so letting him go was the right move. They're a key player or two away from having a core group that can lead them into contention, and giving Smitty $5.5 a year would have hindered their ability to get a guy like Scott Gomez who can be part of a championship club nucleus.

6. I think K-Lowe has the club in a good position now, aside from a couple of bad contracts (such as Pisani's). He has Hemsky locked up for another 5 years, and tons of draft picks and assets on both the NHL and minor league rosters. If they can find another all-star or two to build their core around, they will have lots of cheap talent to surround them with, or to move to acquire complementary players.

7. This year is a write-off, and barring a major splash in the off-season, so might 2007-08. But Kevin Lowe is right that in the long term, this move will make the Oilers a better club. In 2010, when Ryan Smyth is getting paid $6 million by the Philadelphia Flyers for the 55 games of service that he's healthy for, we'll be glad that Lowe had the chutzpah to move him.

Now, someone refresh my kool-aid :)
 

Perhaps Smyth's market value is $6 million per season. We'll see July 1, I guess. But for that $6 million a season, we could get a Daniel Tjarnqvist clone and a Jaroslav Spacek clone, with cash to spare, without having to worry about tying up a bunch of our finite financial resources in a hard-playing, modestly injury-prone 31-year old left winger over the long term.

People who say "ooh, the market dictates what is and isn't an overpayment" are missing the point. I don't care what the market will bear. If you can pay a bunch of sweet swag for the same price and that sweet swag will probably help you more over the long term, it's an overpayment. When the alternative to overpaying is to trade for nice prospects and a pick, it becomes a no-brainer.
 

Lord Bob said...
Perhaps Smyth's market value is $6 million per season. We'll see July 1, I guess. But for that $6 million a season, we could get a Daniel Tjarnqvist clone and a Jaroslav Spacek clone, with cash to spare, without having to worry about tying up a bunch of our finite financial resources in a hard-playing, modestly injury-prone 31-year old left winger over the long term.

The Oilers don't need two 2nd pairing dmen at the expense of an elite player. They need an elite player and I don't see how dealing the one you have without getting one in return will help that angle.

If Lowe's looking for bargains on the UFA wire, he should have his head examined. He will not get better value than Smyth out of this UFA class and likely won't from next year's class either.

Lowe needs to make a quantity for long-term quality deal again somehow and those are rare deals. That's the only way he gets out of this mess and that involves more assets going out the door.
 

It has been said "Rental" everyone is on Lowe about this. This could be the biggest ripoff since the Pistols Filthy Lucre tour. Smyth is consumate Pro he has an understanding of the team and what it needs. The Oilers are not going to make the Playoffs so hey Kevin rent me out for whatever you can get. The Islanders step up to the plate 3 1st rounders not based on them being able to resign Smyth. July 1st rolls around and the Mullet Man is back as captain of the Oil, and we can deal some of the dead weight the Oilers are carrying. Does it suck yes... I think this is why Burke never hopped on board he had no guarantee that he could sign Smyth.
Either this is the greatest move ever pulled or the worst it will tell on July 1st. This is the new CBA and the only GM dumb enough to go with this was Garth baby, Wang will go mental and sign Dipietro to a 5 year extension. This is all seen through my copper tinged glasses. We can dream.... we need an IHL team this year
 

Any takers on Nillson, O'Marra or one of the "cream" of the 2007 draft turning into the next Sidney Crosby, or even Ryan Smyth? Anyone?
 

They're a key player or two away from having a core group that can lead them into contention, and giving Smitty $5.5 a year would have hindered their ability to get a guy like Scott Gomez who can be part of a championship club nucleus.

I have a bit of a problem with this statement. I mean, is Smyth not part of a potential championship nucleus? He almost was not too long ago, IIRC. Granted, you'll probably have Gomez a few years more than Smyth, and maybe even at a similar price, but I think the question of win-now vs. win-later remained squared firmly on the defence, not the forwards. If we're talking about winning by, say, 2009 or 2010, I think keeping Smyth in conjunction with Defensive UFA X would've worked just as well, and that dealing Sykora, Lupul, and Markkanen would've made a good deal more sense. (Sorry, Sykora ain't a 30- or 40-goal guy.)
 

Good comments doogie. To respond:

Is Smyth not part of a potential championship nucleus? He almost was not too long ago, IIRC

Not at 5.5 mil a year he isn't. If you look at his career numbers, he's not an elite player. In fact, prior to this year, he'd never played in an all-star game or scored a point a game, and only had 3 30 goal seasons to his record. You can only afford 2-3 big ticket players on your roster, and I'm not convinced that Smyth would be worth it for the Oilers.

If we're talking about winning by, say, 2009 or 2010, I think keeping Smyth in conjunction with Defensive UFA X would've worked just as well

Assuming he stays healthy and his production stays at his current level. To provide context, his career numbers are just below those of Chris Drury, and well below those of Scott Gomez and Alex Tanguay. Given that he plays a more physical style than all three, and is three years older than Gomez and Tanguay, he's the most likely to decline over the next five years.

As for defenseman x, the three extra assets the Oilers now have gives them more ammunition to go acquire that person (or acquire a top-line forward if they go the FA route on defense).

Dealing Sykora, Lupul, and Markkanen would've made a good deal more sense.

I don't think it's fair to write off Lupul (or any young player) after one bad year, but I agree with you on the other two. They should have been gone at the deadline, and if Lowe makes a play to resign the two of them to anything longer than a one or two year deal, that will be a bad decision in my mind. However, it should be noted that since they are both UFAs, they shouldn't have impeded negotiations with Smyth.