Wednesday, February 14, 2007
I got good news, and I got bad news
It bears pointing out (like Tyler basically did): given that the Oilers are 3 games out of a playoff spot -- which is bad -- they couldn't be in a better position in terms of the standings. There are no other teams to pass, and there are several teams which could conceivably falter. That's the good news... The bad news, of course, is everything else.*The GM continues to say, basically, that they can't afford to acquire players that would make the team better. Mirtle glossed the Brad Stuart acquisition as the Flames "going all-in"; sticking with the poker theme, Kevin Lowe is being blinded out ("this is a weak way to go" - indeed).
*Following last night's 0-for-7 performance, the Oilers PP is now 27th in the league, ahead of only Phoenix, St. Louis, and Chicago. This is shockingly dismal.
*Injuries: Stoll and Pisani have joined Moreau and Tjits in the trainer's room, leaving the Oil to rely on depth at forward that just isn't there.
*Schedule: the one thing the Oilers have going for them is the 5 H2H games remaining against the Wild. Otherwise, it's bad news. 10 home games remaining, 15 road, including games at BUF, OTT, DET, ANA, SJS, NSH, & CGY. The combined home record of those 5 WC teams is 100-28-13.
Also worth noting (to go in the "What was Lowe thinking about last summer?" file): it's absolutely ridiculous that the Oilers are on a 7-game roadie right now. When the coach and players say in mid-season, "There's nothing we can do about the schedule", it's true. But the organizations do have a say in its development in the first place. The Oil was going to have to take their regular November road trip to make room for the rodeo, and the season-ending 6-game trip was dictated by the World Curling Championships moving into Rexall. I can't believe that Lowe (or Laforge/Howson/whoever) couldn't have avoided having a third lengthy road trip on the schedule, especially here, two-thirds of the way through the season.
I have a question, posed sincerely: what lessons do you think Kevin Lowe took away from the 2005/06 season? Sometimes people just don't learn from experience; worse, though, is when a person learns from experience, but learns the wrong things.
# posted by Matt @ 11:59 am 
Comments:
Ouch. The Ducks don't get to keep their asterisk one more day? Aw, the inevitable Shark-catch-up, any day now.
leaving the Oil to rely on depth at forward that just isn't there.
I thought forward depth was a team strength? I think now its clear (and lets face it; all teams manage to do it) that the Oilers overestimated the talent level on the team that went to the SCF. Now, I think you can also argue that KLo had to honour that achievement by affirming his belief in that roster (and coaching staff), and that perhaps led to some contract decisions that look strange in hindsight. But for most of the time last year the Oilers were a ninth place team, and they're a ninth place team now WITHOUT CFP, so in a way, maybe they haven't underperformed as much as advertised.
There is a real gap between 8th and 9th in the West, and it is starting to look like it might be insurmountable. One of Vancouver or Minnesota will win tonight, and they might both get points out of that game.
It's hard to make up ground on good teams, or teams which are consistently at the .500 or better mark. The Oilers are as far behind the Wild as the Flames are behind San Jose. Does anyone expect the Flames to reel in the Sharks before the end of the season? Me neither.
The Oilers current road trip is an awful one. But it also means they've played a ton of home games. So, why aren't they up around the top of the division? Calgary, Vancouver and Minnesota all have a bunch of home games in hand.
Anon, that's a couple of good (fair) points. The one quibble is that the Oilers were in a playoff spot for virtually the entire season. They got passed by Anaheim and San Jose about the same time as they passed the Canucks.
I'd have to look back through the archives, but I don't know that there was a single day after about early November where the Oil wasn't 8th or better.
Matt, I think Lowe looked at last season and decided that he had a good plan and decided to follow the same scheme - I wrote about this a lot in the fall:
- put your team together as best you can
- wait and see what the holes are (last year goaltending, this year D)
- fill those holes while expending minimal assets
Big gamble - even last year it almost didn't work out but in fairness to Lowe I think there were some, if not all, who felt that the goaltending last year would be good enough. When it turned out that it wasn't he made his move (although it almost cost the season).
I think he looked at this team and guessed that the forwards and Roloson would make up for the D - the team was in first into December (albeit due to some luck/smoke and mirrors) despite the non vaunt of the vaunt.
But he waited too long to make his move this time around and when Staios and Shaggy went down that was it.
Too late.
Hopefully he learns from this. But who knows.
And what has been overlooked is that the Flames PP has moved up to 12th. The PK is still in 22nd, but with Conroy back back and now bigger guys in Stuart and Primeau brought in, that stat should improve as well.
>the Oilers overestimated the talent level on the team that went to the SCF
The talent is there, and I think a SCF isn't just a fluke.
Afterall, what separates Edmonton from Calgary or Minnesota is 3-4 wins in regulation -- not exactly the 1993 Ottawa Senators here.
However, the team has clearly made a mistake in not filling a glaring hole, unlike last year when the acquired Roloson in the nick of time.
Black Dog & Mike, that's probably about right. No doubt that Lowe thought they'd be in a better spot right now than they are -- I think we all did. Lowetide had a good comment a couple of weeks ago, though:
But WHEN does a blip in the market for defensemen become established cost of doing business?
What is Lowe's take on this general concept? If you can't acquire a D upgrade based on the way you presently value players (& prospects), AND you can't succeed without a D upgrade, something's gotta give, no?
And what has been overlooked is that the Flames PP has moved up to 12th. The PK is still in 22nd, but with Conroy back back and now bigger guys in Stuart and Primeau brought in, that stat should improve as well.
I think special teams might have been the brightest spot over that stinker of a road trip. The game in Buffalo was probably the best in that regard (2 for 5 on the PP, 100% on 3 PKs), but not cringeworthy even in Detroit.
The other thing was that there were a lot more sellers earlier last season - remember St.Louis, Chicago, Columbus, Pittsburgh and Washington were all out of it by December 1st. This year only the Flyers really collapsed early.
I think that too was part of Lowe's gamble - he figured he would strike early as he did last season. But when the Blues and the Jackets and other weak sisters either hung around or rebounded from bad starts well then the available players became a lot fewer.
Thing is - if Staios and Shaggy stay healthy the Oilers are likely in that pack by the end of February and Lowe is able to make his moves.
Its a shame if you are an Oilers' fan or for that matter a player - I don't think this team is a threat this season (although if you get to the tournament who knows) but if Lowe had sacrificed a prospect or a pick earlier this season for that Dman then they are probably in the mix.
drag.
I think special teams might have been the brightest spot over that stinker of a road trip.
It definitely kick-started last night's game, finally.
It's just one of those seasons. I mean, there's no way the Oilers staff could have realized earlier than they did that Hejda was at worst their 4th best defencemen, after Staios, Smith & Shaggy, rather than #7. That's just the hockey gods at work, right?
Anyway, when Stevie Y starts phoning the Oilers about the world championship team (in about 2 weeks, I figure), I hope he picks Craig Simpson as one of the Team Canada coaches--I just can't wait to see Simpson weave his powerplay magic on the big ice surface.
I just can't wait to see Simpson weave his powerplay magic on the big ice surface.
Heh.
And the hill just got a little steeper as the Minny/Nucks game goes to OT and three points exchanged.
Now TSN reports that Shane Doan will be paid just under $4.6 mill per with his new Coyotes deal.
How much more money will Ryan Smyth expect per season now?
$1 million more? $1.4?
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Ouch. The Ducks don't get to keep their asterisk one more day? Aw, the inevitable Shark-catch-up, any day now.
leaving the Oil to rely on depth at forward that just isn't there.
I thought forward depth was a team strength? I think now its clear (and lets face it; all teams manage to do it) that the Oilers overestimated the talent level on the team that went to the SCF. Now, I think you can also argue that KLo had to honour that achievement by affirming his belief in that roster (and coaching staff), and that perhaps led to some contract decisions that look strange in hindsight. But for most of the time last year the Oilers were a ninth place team, and they're a ninth place team now WITHOUT CFP, so in a way, maybe they haven't underperformed as much as advertised.
# posted by 
: February 14, 2007 12:28 pm
: February 14, 2007 12:28 pm There is a real gap between 8th and 9th in the West, and it is starting to look like it might be insurmountable. One of Vancouver or Minnesota will win tonight, and they might both get points out of that game.
It's hard to make up ground on good teams, or teams which are consistently at the .500 or better mark. The Oilers are as far behind the Wild as the Flames are behind San Jose. Does anyone expect the Flames to reel in the Sharks before the end of the season? Me neither.
The Oilers current road trip is an awful one. But it also means they've played a ton of home games. So, why aren't they up around the top of the division? Calgary, Vancouver and Minnesota all have a bunch of home games in hand.
# posted by : February 14, 2007 12:34 pm
: February 14, 2007 12:34 pm Anon, that's a couple of good (fair) points. The one quibble is that the Oilers were in a playoff spot for virtually the entire season. They got passed by Anaheim and San Jose about the same time as they passed the Canucks.
I'd have to look back through the archives, but I don't know that there was a single day after about early November where the Oil wasn't 8th or better.
Matt, I think Lowe looked at last season and decided that he had a good plan and decided to follow the same scheme - I wrote about this a lot in the fall:
- put your team together as best you can
- wait and see what the holes are (last year goaltending, this year D)
- fill those holes while expending minimal assets
Big gamble - even last year it almost didn't work out but in fairness to Lowe I think there were some, if not all, who felt that the goaltending last year would be good enough. When it turned out that it wasn't he made his move (although it almost cost the season).
I think he looked at this team and guessed that the forwards and Roloson would make up for the D - the team was in first into December (albeit due to some luck/smoke and mirrors) despite the non vaunt of the vaunt.
But he waited too long to make his move this time around and when Staios and Shaggy went down that was it.
Too late.
Hopefully he learns from this. But who knows.
And what has been overlooked is that the Flames PP has moved up to 12th. The PK is still in 22nd, but with Conroy back back and now bigger guys in Stuart and Primeau brought in, that stat should improve as well.
# posted by : February 14, 2007 1:06 pm
: February 14, 2007 1:06 pm >the Oilers overestimated the talent level on the team that went to the SCF
The talent is there, and I think a SCF isn't just a fluke.
Afterall, what separates Edmonton from Calgary or Minnesota is 3-4 wins in regulation -- not exactly the 1993 Ottawa Senators here.
However, the team has clearly made a mistake in not filling a glaring hole, unlike last year when the acquired Roloson in the nick of time.
Black Dog & Mike, that's probably about right. No doubt that Lowe thought they'd be in a better spot right now than they are -- I think we all did. Lowetide had a good comment a couple of weeks ago, though:
But WHEN does a blip in the market for defensemen become established cost of doing business?
What is Lowe's take on this general concept? If you can't acquire a D upgrade based on the way you presently value players (& prospects), AND you can't succeed without a D upgrade, something's gotta give, no?
And what has been overlooked is that the Flames PP has moved up to 12th. The PK is still in 22nd, but with Conroy back back and now bigger guys in Stuart and Primeau brought in, that stat should improve as well.
I think special teams might have been the brightest spot over that stinker of a road trip. The game in Buffalo was probably the best in that regard (2 for 5 on the PP, 100% on 3 PKs), but not cringeworthy even in Detroit.
The other thing was that there were a lot more sellers earlier last season - remember St.Louis, Chicago, Columbus, Pittsburgh and Washington were all out of it by December 1st. This year only the Flyers really collapsed early.
I think that too was part of Lowe's gamble - he figured he would strike early as he did last season. But when the Blues and the Jackets and other weak sisters either hung around or rebounded from bad starts well then the available players became a lot fewer.
Thing is - if Staios and Shaggy stay healthy the Oilers are likely in that pack by the end of February and Lowe is able to make his moves.
Its a shame if you are an Oilers' fan or for that matter a player - I don't think this team is a threat this season (although if you get to the tournament who knows) but if Lowe had sacrificed a prospect or a pick earlier this season for that Dman then they are probably in the mix.
drag.
I think special teams might have been the brightest spot over that stinker of a road trip.
It definitely kick-started last night's game, finally.
It's just one of those seasons. I mean, there's no way the Oilers staff could have realized earlier than they did that Hejda was at worst their 4th best defencemen, after Staios, Smith & Shaggy, rather than #7. That's just the hockey gods at work, right?
Anyway, when Stevie Y starts phoning the Oilers about the world championship team (in about 2 weeks, I figure), I hope he picks Craig Simpson as one of the Team Canada coaches--I just can't wait to see Simpson weave his powerplay magic on the big ice surface.
# posted by : February 14, 2007 5:44 pm
: February 14, 2007 5:44 pm I just can't wait to see Simpson weave his powerplay magic on the big ice surface.
Heh.
# posted by : February 14, 2007 6:08 pm
: February 14, 2007 6:08 pm And the hill just got a little steeper as the Minny/Nucks game goes to OT and three points exchanged.
# posted by : February 14, 2007 10:33 pm
: February 14, 2007 10:33 pm Now TSN reports that Shane Doan will be paid just under $4.6 mill per with his new Coyotes deal.
How much more money will Ryan Smyth expect per season now?
$1 million more? $1.4?
# posted by : February 14, 2007 11:32 pm
: February 14, 2007 11:32 pm Post a Comment
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