The Flames kick off their 6-games-in-10-nights road trip tonight in Vancouver against the Canucks (8PM MT, Flames PPV). Again, it's 6 games, not one, so I'm not looking at tonight's game in particular as must-win, but clearly I'm hoping to see Results. Out of 12 points, here's how I figure I'll assess this road trip:

• 6 points: disappointing but not disastrous
• 7 points: acceptable if slightly disheartening
• 8 points: Nice!
• 9 points: so long, NW Division also-rans
• 10+ points: what if anything do we need to address to beat the Ducks in the WCF
  
• fewer than 6: cripes, not this again

Some miscellany from around TEH INTARWEB:

**Eric Francis had a No Shit! piece on Theo Fleury in the Sun on Tuesday. Theo is running a concrete coatings biz in Calgary. Nut graf:

Although the NHL is now better suited to smaller, faster players, the 5-ft. 6-in. agitator is disgusted by the sanitized version of the game.

"I don't see the game as being fun -- you don't have to get your nose dirty any more," said Fleury.

"You can't be a (jerk) on the ice because there are two officials and 12 guys in Toronto watching every move you make. For a guy like me, I needed that aspect of my game to be effective. The craziness, the intimidation, the unpredictability -- there's no more of that in the game. They've taken personality right out."

I love Fleury, but I am not endorsing his judgement per se. To borrow a phrase, he's still living in a Boys' Own rocket-ship adventure of the mind:

"I know I was a great player, probably one of the top-10 guys that ever played the game. Creative. Electrifying. All that stuff. Yeah, I could have worked harder but I was extremely talented. If I had taken care of myself, I probably could have been better."

What a guy.

**Yesterday I linked to The Forechecker's breakdown of Goal Prevention. It's great stuff, same idea as what Tyler was doing last year with xGA, xSV%, etc.. Basically, the idea is that your team's defense can be broken down into 3 elements relative to the rest of the NHL, all 3 of which will impact GA.

1. Does your team allow more or fewer total shots than average?
2. Is the Quality of the shots allowed better or worse than average (Quality being a function of (A) distance from the net and (B) if I understand it correctly, slap/wrist/backhand)?
3. Does your goaltender stop more or fewer shots than average?

It's very illuminating. The data on the Flames confirmed my own-eyes suspicion: while the allow an average number of shots, they are #1 in Shot Quality Against, and then on top of that Kipper stops a bunch more than average. The Oilers, however, kind of surprised me. They also allow an average number of shots, but are #2 in SQA (maybe they don't need to upgrade the D!), plus Roli is stopping a few extra, which is why they're 7th in the NHL in GAA.

Combining SA and SQA gives you Expected Goals Against, about the best goalie-independent stat on defense you could imagine. The top 3 are DET, DAL, & NJD -- no surprise. CGY is 5th, EDM is 8th. 4th? The freaking L.A. Kings. How bad is your goaltending when your xGA is 4th in the NHL but your actual GA is 26th? Very, very, very bad. The Lightning, who seem like they should be better that 13th in the EC, are also getting torched by this measure.

The goalie who's saving his team the greatest number of goals per game? One Monsieur J-S Giguere. Giggy, Teemu, and 18 guys named Duane? Well, no -- but a slump by (or injury to) Giguere would hurt the Ducks more than I think most people realize.

**That whole defensive breakdown and analysis is somewhat intuitive to semi-serious fans, I think. The offensive one is a bit tougher to get your head around, by which I mean not only is it tougher to reconcile with your biases, but it's tougher to draw conclusions from.

The Oil illustrates this difficulty quite well, I think. By the Forechecker's numbers:

• Shots For/Game: 30th
• Shot Quality: 26th
• Expected Goals For/Game: T-29th
• Shooting %: 6th
• Actual GF/Game: 19th

So, for the season to date, the numbers say that the Oilers are not getting enough pucks on the net, nor are they doing it a manner that would promote a lot of scoring, but they are shooting very accurately -- bumping them from 29th to 19th in scoring.

That said, I don't know what that really means. I'd love to think that the high Shoot% is in large part luck, and that if anything the Vaunt will suffer even more... but it could be that the Shoot% is an accurate reflection of their forwards' ability to beat goalies, and that once they start "playing better" (creating better scoring chances, or acquire a D-man who knows how to initiate a breakout, or whatever), their GF/Game will surge upwards. [shrug]

**Tyler has a follow-up to my post yesterday about the discrepancy in home-ice advantage between the two conferences. Yeah, it's hard to explain, but apparently it's not a fluke: it's pretty persistent year-to-year. The likely reason has got to be Travel, doesn't it? Meaning, the relevant concept is not actually Home Ice Advantage but Road Ice Disadvantage: the greater HIA we see in the West is basically a mirage created by the fact that it's much more likely that they're hosting a team on a road trip than a team in the East (who are more likely to be hosting a team that's just there for the evening or night).

I dunno. If I get some energy, I might look for some clues in MLB and the NBA.

**Alert readers may recall that in my season preview, I predicted Sidney Crosby would win the Hart Trophy. Having watched parts of last night's game on TSN, all I have to say is that if he drags that sorry crew into the playoffs, he'll deserve it.

How are otherwise-reasonable Caps bloggers reacting to Sid's 6-point night, I wonder? Hmm... as of noon MT, Eric doesn't have his usual roundup/Man of the Night post up... neither does J.P. -- busy day in the District, I assume? It's not like they're usually sensitive about data points that might possibly maybe suggest that Crosby's a better player than the Ocho. [Disclaimer: I kid. I have no horse in this race, and do not know or care which one's better.]

**Game prediction: Calgary 2, Vancouver 1 -- Amonte in regulation, Iginla extends his goal scoring streak to 7 in OT. Go Flames.