Wednesday, November 15, 2006
First Rule: No one talks about how Fight Club wins games!
I first heard of the "fighting equals wins" study on CTV last night, and see now that The National Post, Tom Benjamin, The Sports Economist and Sabermetric Research have been talking about it. The paper itself, called NHL Team Production, is here. It was written by John Heyne, Aju Fenn, and Stacy Brook. I haven't had time to read through the report, but I thought I would put it out there, and let people discuss the issue in the comments. I'll just throw my thoughts, when I formulate any, in there.
***Update*** Mudcrutch talks about it briefly, as well.
***Update*** Mudcrutch talks about it briefly, as well.
# posted by andy grabia @ 12:46 am 
Comments:
Just based on the CTV article, I've come up with some points.
Rule Two: Mike Gartner is not to be considered a good source of information on hockey metrics. As well, CTV, unless there is a "Mike Gardner" I am not familiar with, you spelled his name wrong.
Question One: If both teams have players fighting, which is kind of how it works, how do you determine advantage?
Question Two: Who is Stephen Cole, and where can I get what he is smoking?
"Cole noted the two teams that made it to the Stanley Cup finals -- the Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes -- were speedy teams who could also play a physical game.
However, neither team had a designated enforcer, the way the Toronto Maple Leafs once had Tie Domi, he said."
No? I'm sure Georges Laraque will be happy to know he isn't a tough guy like Tie Domi.
Question Three: What the hell does this have to do with the story, other than you just want to plug the Leafs?
"Domi retired from play this summer after the Leafs declined to pick up the option year of his contract."
i can't believe none of the media outlets have clued into the "it takes two players to have a fight, and why would it spark only one team?" arguement.
It's crazy how the obvious arguement against what is a dubiuos proposal from the outset just gets completley ignored.
I work with a Mike Gardner here at Enbridge, but he's about 5'10" 320 lbs, so I'm pretty sure he has never played any competitive hockey (unless he was used as the stereotypical 'big, fat goalie')...
And I think that there is something in the CRTC rules that state that a large Canadian media outlet cannot mention hockey without referencing the Leafs in some way (no matter how irrelevant they may be to the story)...
Or maybe its just cause CTV owns TSN and they are trying to remind people to tune into the TSN broadcasts to see how crappy Tie Domi is as a panelist...
Haven't read the article, but last I checked, a fight involves both teams...
That said, and not statistically relevant as it's just a single game, but did you catch big Georges last night?
- early in the 2nd, Wild take a 2-0 lead on the 'yotes
- less than a minute later, LeGG picks a fight with Boogaard
- ten minutes after that, Georges helps tie the game (brings the puck out front from behind the net, ensuing scramble puck goes in)
- 5 minutes left, game now tied at 3, Georges makes a backhand pass from the right wing boards to Saprykin, who scores the winner
Final tally: #37: 2A, +2, 5 PIM
Big night for the big man, and he did the Oil a favour, knocking off the Wild. Nicely done Georges!
- Rod
I downloaded the article, and I was only the 46th person to do so.
This stuff is so bad I don't know where to start. Andy, if you really wanted to drive MC around the bend you would put that equation for points onto the sidebar as an interactive thing.
Just imagine ...
mudcrutch sez: " ... and that much improvement in goal, which is reasonable to expect, should be enough to move the team up in the standings by about ten points ..."
anonymouse replies: " I think you're wrong mc, they'd need to improve their goal differential by 358 goals to take that jump, all other things being equal. I've been doing some research using Andy's terrific scientifically proven team evaluator sidebar thingy. I think they need to focus on punching other guys in the head and scoring short-handed goals. Hope this helps, keep up the good work!"
Not a bad idea. Then he can swear up and down this site, start a bunch of fights, then come back 20 minutes later and delete it all because he's a "profesional guy."
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Just based on the CTV article, I've come up with some points.
Rule Two: Mike Gartner is not to be considered a good source of information on hockey metrics. As well, CTV, unless there is a "Mike Gardner" I am not familiar with, you spelled his name wrong.
Question One: If both teams have players fighting, which is kind of how it works, how do you determine advantage?
Question Two: Who is Stephen Cole, and where can I get what he is smoking?
"Cole noted the two teams that made it to the Stanley Cup finals -- the Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes -- were speedy teams who could also play a physical game.
However, neither team had a designated enforcer, the way the Toronto Maple Leafs once had Tie Domi, he said."
No? I'm sure Georges Laraque will be happy to know he isn't a tough guy like Tie Domi.
Question Three: What the hell does this have to do with the story, other than you just want to plug the Leafs?
"Domi retired from play this summer after the Leafs declined to pick up the option year of his contract."
i can't believe none of the media outlets have clued into the "it takes two players to have a fight, and why would it spark only one team?" arguement.
It's crazy how the obvious arguement against what is a dubiuos proposal from the outset just gets completley ignored.
# posted by 
: November 15, 2006 2:29 am
: November 15, 2006 2:29 am I work with a Mike Gardner here at Enbridge, but he's about 5'10" 320 lbs, so I'm pretty sure he has never played any competitive hockey (unless he was used as the stereotypical 'big, fat goalie')...
And I think that there is something in the CRTC rules that state that a large Canadian media outlet cannot mention hockey without referencing the Leafs in some way (no matter how irrelevant they may be to the story)...
Or maybe its just cause CTV owns TSN and they are trying to remind people to tune into the TSN broadcasts to see how crappy Tie Domi is as a panelist...
# posted by : November 15, 2006 9:03 am
: November 15, 2006 9:03 am Haven't read the article, but last I checked, a fight involves both teams...
That said, and not statistically relevant as it's just a single game, but did you catch big Georges last night?
- early in the 2nd, Wild take a 2-0 lead on the 'yotes
- less than a minute later, LeGG picks a fight with Boogaard
- ten minutes after that, Georges helps tie the game (brings the puck out front from behind the net, ensuing scramble puck goes in)
- 5 minutes left, game now tied at 3, Georges makes a backhand pass from the right wing boards to Saprykin, who scores the winner
Final tally: #37: 2A, +2, 5 PIM
Big night for the big man, and he did the Oil a favour, knocking off the Wild. Nicely done Georges!
- Rod
# posted by : November 15, 2006 11:30 am
: November 15, 2006 11:30 am I downloaded the article, and I was only the 46th person to do so.
This stuff is so bad I don't know where to start. Andy, if you really wanted to drive MC around the bend you would put that equation for points onto the sidebar as an interactive thing.
Just imagine ...
mudcrutch sez: " ... and that much improvement in goal, which is reasonable to expect, should be enough to move the team up in the standings by about ten points ..."
anonymouse replies: " I think you're wrong mc, they'd need to improve their goal differential by 358 goals to take that jump, all other things being equal. I've been doing some research using Andy's terrific scientifically proven team evaluator sidebar thingy. I think they need to focus on punching other guys in the head and scoring short-handed goals. Hope this helps, keep up the good work!"
Not a bad idea. Then he can swear up and down this site, start a bunch of fights, then come back 20 minutes later and delete it all because he's a "profesional guy."
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