Friday, July 14, 2006

 

Horcoff Signs

So Horc is done, for $3.6 million a year. It's interesting that TSN didn't note that Lupul is also still a RFA, but whatever. I'll also ignore the Lindros rumours. I guess it is a business, but something seems off when Le GG is sent packing, and a guy who refused to play in small-market Quebec City is welcomed into town.

In other news, Joni Pitkanen re-signed with the Flyers. It's a one-year deal. Anyone know the money involved? TSN has it as undisclosed. I'd like to know how much closer the Flyers are to the wall.

Comments:

For Christ's sake. Look, I'm going to miss Georges too, but you do realize they're paying him $1.2M to impress everybody at the Coyotes team physical? Can the people who are lined up to jump off the High Level Bridge give it a rest already?
 


I'll take Lindros for 40 games over Big Georges for 3 minutes a game for 82 straight any day of the week.
its about winning hockey games
RPK
 


Pitkanen was expected to sign for right around $2-million, but I haven't seen the actual numbers anywhere. It's safe to say it'd be right around there. (By the way, are you counting Primeau in saying the Flyers are up against the cap? I just can't see him coming back, and that'll free up more than $3-million.)
 


I was waiting for Andy's Horcoff update...

Great news I think. It feels high for this year, but not if you consider his arbitration comparables and that pending UFA thing kicking in and driving up the cost. Honestly though, if the Oilers signed Horcoff for one year and he proceeded to roughly approximate last year's regular season numbers in 06/07, he'd get the same deal that Jokinen got. In that context, the Oilers are going to save $1.5MM/yr for the last two years of the deal.

One other piece of info: tsn.ca reports that Buffalo traded Pyatt's rights to the Canucks. Two interesting things here: 1) The Sabres must be getting nervous about all those RFAs and all those arbitration cases. 2) Vancouver just picked up another player they'll be paying over $1MM/yr. Are they in line to make another dump?
 


(By the way, are you counting Primeau in saying the Flyers are up against the cap? I just can't see him coming back, and that'll free up more than $3-million.)

Ya, and Desjardin will probably retire too, right? So it does free up some more money.

And calm down, Cosh. My point was simply that Lindros isn't exactly well-liked by alot of Canadian hockey fans (or Philly ones for that matter), whereas Le GG is a beloved figure. I agree that it was the right hockey move to let him go. And I agree about the bridge-jumpers, too. But doesn't it seem really weird that Eric F%#ing Lindros might end up in an Oilers jersey?

The numbers for Horcoff almost made me swallow my tongue, but after somber reflection I realize that they aren't bad at all.
 


The numbers for Horcoff almost made me swallow my tongue, but after somber reflection I realize that they aren't bad at all.

Surely you aren't surprised. This has been obvious since the Sedin signing, no?
 


Agents and players are probably just taking advantage of the last amount of "freeness" in the system. the big increase in the cap is over and decreases are always possible.

So, downward pressure should result -- particularly because some players and agents helped themselves to a big chunk of the available pie.
 


If he was still hanging on to "Be the GM Part III," I'd say he's pretty surprised. He had Pisani at $1.25MM, Stoll at $1.3MM, Hemsky at $1.9MM and Horcoff at $2MM.

The good news is that I think he'll be close on Stoll and maybe in the ballpark for Hemsky. Of course that all depends on whether they go long term or not.

BTW, I've got Kobasew and Bouchard down as the two best comps for Jarret Stoll with actual contracts. This would slot him in at $1.2 - $1.9MM, which sounds right to me. Can anybody else find someone better?
 


If he was still hanging on to "Be the GM Part III," I'd say he's pretty surprised. He had Pisani at $1.25MM, Stoll at $1.3MM, Hemsky at $1.9MM and Horcoff at $2MM.

I gave up that pipe dream on July 1.
 


Of course, if you lazy stats guys would get off your asses and develop a PECOTA ranking system, I would have an idea what to expect on salaries.
 


Of course, if you lazy stats guys would get off your asses and develop a PECOTA ranking system, I would have an idea what to expect on salaries.

PECOTA is a prediction system; is that what you're talking about?

If you mean some sort of system of valuing player contributions, I plug away at that in my spare time, but I'm not convinced that even a perfectly good system would be worthwhile for projecting salaries - some of these motherfuckers are just crazy.
 


PECOTA is a prediction system; is that what you're talking about?

It also operates as a comparables system. That is what I am talking about. I can go in to Baseball Prospectus, look up David Ortiz,and if I had an account, look up his "Most Comparable Players." In Papi's case, of course, it would be God, Allah, Zeus, Odin, etc. But in a normal player's case, it would allow me to see who is a comparable, and make a salary estimate in that way. It's not perfect because, as you note, some of these contracts are just fucking crazy, but it would help.
 


Ah, now I get you. The PECOTA system relies on comparables to generate projections. I didn't realize that they also produce a list of similar active players.

Bill James invented similarity scores; I encourage you to come up with something similar Andy.
 


Bill James invented similarity scores; I encourage you to come up with something similar Andy.

If I knew how to properly use Excel, I just might.

I suppose you could do it with a slight adjustment to your replacement values, or by assigning Win Shares to players.
 


Actually, the PECOTA numbers show historical and modern comparibles. Developing a Win Shares formula for current players might be the way to go.
 


I'd have done similarity scores two weeks ago if I had a source for properly-formatted statistics. Apparently I'm the only ass who doesn't have one, judging by the epidemic of brilliant, unexplained player metrics that lack any publicly available underpinning, context, or rationale.
 


Apparently I'm the only ass who doesn't have one, judging by the epidemic of brilliant, unexplained player metrics that lack any publicly available underpinning, context, or rationale.

No shit. Half of this shit is just guessing. We really should meet as a group, either in person or through email, and figure out how to solve this problem. And pool our resources.
 


I've said this to Tyler, and I think it applies to the IOF guys, too. You really need to do a metrics glossary, or some sort of introduction to your metrics. I know my baseball stuff fairly well, so I don't think I'm an absolute retard. But half the time, when I'm reading your stuff, I am completely lost. I have no idea what your basic assumptions and first principles are.
 


We need to hire one of the stats guys to run a site that we can access in the wee small hours of morning (SIHR-like).

Where do I send my 83 dollars?
 


I follow the basic rate stuff, and while I saw the explanation of the TOI difficulty calc, I think I'd have to see the program to understand it (I'm like that). What I'm curious about is this Pythagorean stuff that Jeff at Sisu's on about. Maybe I'll know what it is after I take first-year stats in the winter semester next year, but until then, I am curious as to what the basic idea is. I don't see myself getting too involved in this hockeymetrics thing, but it is at least intriguing.
 


Good contract for both parties I think.

If Horcoff has a comparable or better season next year (and I think he will) what does he get as a UFA?

Marc Savard got 4M - is that right?

He had, what, 15 points more then Horc - playing with Hossa and Kovalchuk?

Couldn't even check my coat.

Etc etc.

Good contact for the Oil, I'd say.
 


Pythagorean Wins was created by Bill James. The simplest explanation I could find was here:

A statistic explaining the relationship of wins and losses to runs scored and runs allowed. In its simplest form: Winning Percentage equals Runs squared divided by the square of Runs plus Runs Allowed. The statistic correlates closely to a team's actual winning percentage.

I'd be interested to see if anyone has created a formula for hockey.
 

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