Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Hemsky Signs
Six-year deal, which is fantastic. RiversQ tells us that Team 1260 is reporting $24-26 million for the deal, which I like even more. That is $4+ million a year. It's a big raise now, but by year three, or even two, it will be a flat out steal of a deal.
Personally, I think this sort of contract will be the way of the future with GMs and their own homegrown talent. The player gets the security of knowing that his money won't be eaten up by incoming free agents, and the teams don't have to worry about losing the player in two years because of ridiculous offers from elsewhere. A win/win for both sides.
Personally, I think this sort of contract will be the way of the future with GMs and their own homegrown talent. The player gets the security of knowing that his money won't be eaten up by incoming free agents, and the teams don't have to worry about losing the player in two years because of ridiculous offers from elsewhere. A win/win for both sides.
# posted by andy grabia @ 4:36 pm 
Comments:
A 6 year deal in pro sports in crazy. The NBA has mostly learned this lesson, as has baseball; both leagues went for this length deal a lot more around the turn of the century, and more often than not, they ended up biting teams in the ass.
The amount per year is great for the Oilers, as Hemsky is the best player they have at this point, but 6 years? I hope the deal works out, and sometimes long deals do work, but this is my initial reaction.
The NBA deals were often longer, and for WAAAY more money. I understand what you are saying, but Hemsky is only 22. And we can always trade him. The money isn't large enought to prohibit that, unlike most of those NBA deals.
I disagree with the assertion that the Oilers will be getting a steal three or four years down the road. That is only true if salaries continue to escalate. That will only happen if the salary cap continues to increase by $5 million or so a year.
If the salary cap remains somewhat static, or even decreases then $4 million today is the same as $4 million in 2009.
That said Hemsky is a great player - I followed his career when he was with the Olympiques - and he may just be worth the money the Oilers are paying him.
I disagree with the assertion that the Oilers will be getting a steal three or four years down the road. That is only true if salaries continue to escalate. That will only happen if the salary cap continues to increase by $5 million or so a year.
Totally true, and an assumption I'm not normally comfortable making. But I just did there. Don't know why, but I did. Maybe Avi's growth estimates comfort me. If league revenues grow by 7.3% for the next 5 years, as the NHL predicts, we're laughing. But if it doesn't, we are screwed. But then again, every team will be. How many GMs have you seen making moderate business decisions in the past few weeks?
Oops, that was me, the anonymous at the start. Not that I post here often anyway.
Saying you can trade him seems a little odd. If the deal looks like a stinker, he's very tough to trade with that contract, and if it doesn't, why would you trade him? Unless he starts to hate Edmonton for some reason. But since he made it through Hull for 2 years, that seems less likely.
Again, it was only my initial reaction that 6 years was crazy. If he improves (and the NHL 2006 video game sure thought he would ), it's could be a great deal. But a point per game scorer is not that rare anymore (assuming scoring levels stay near the same); Hemsky was about 45th in the league last year per game scoring, depending on who you want to count. And he was a -5. The Oilers obviously have a lot of faith in him. Can't win without taking any chances, Hemsky seems like a decent one to take, but did it need to be this offseason? Why not next year, after seeing how he does again?
Well, it could also be a steal if he becomes a 100-point man in the next couple of years, no? I swear, people have become so obsessed with salary structures they forget that the game's played on ice.
This looks brilliant to me. It's refreshing to see a long-term deal signed for a young player who's still entering his prime production years, rather than for a veteran who's leaving them.
As for future dollars, you don't have to believe the NHL's growth figures to think this will work out well. Even at inflation-level discounting, six years will magnify the benefit to the team (eventually reducing his cost by 15%).
Moreover, a $4.1 M charge to the cap is not that big a hit (less than half the player maximum).
As for production comparisons, I don't have anything handy. But why not compare Ales to the player of the moment, Daniel Briere. At Hemsky's age, Briere was scoring 15 points in 30 games and -2.
GOilers!
I am loving this deal. Hemsky's just a kid but how can we forget those goals against Detroit in Game 6 in the 3rd period? Priceless. And he's going to get better.
Not that long-term deals mean anything (Benedict Pronger, anyone?) but at least it provides a bit of security
I'm a Flames guy and I have to grudgingly agree this looks like a pretty good deal. He's a pretty flashy player and those guys only get more expensive, not less. If anything, he's only going to score more when he is 26 than he does now. And he'll probably make fewer of those behind the back breakaway passes to the opposing team.
Absolutely a great deal - Loxy I think it's a steal even if the cap stays the same and/or Hemsky stagnates at 80pts/yr. Think about the comparables, 4.1 for that type of production isn't much at all. Samsonov is pulling down nearly that amount and he's nowhere near displaying the upside that Hemsky has. Hemsky left a lot on the table today. In 2 years, especially if the cap rises, he would be a 6M+ player easily (again, even at 80pts). If Hemsky continues to develop, this one is a killer deal for Lowe.
-BDV
Havlat's problem is that he's been injury-prone. Without looking them up, I'm confident saying that his point-per-game numbers are better than Hemsky's.
In other news, Gomez was awarded $5 million in arbitration, so I'd say that $4 mil for Hemsky is about right.
$4M was the top of my personal comfort zone for this particular chattel, but (a) the league's zany GMs and arbitrators are raising that comfort zone hour upon hour and (b) what's 5% between friends anyway?
The kid asked for a long term deal - ASKED - Oiler fans will love that.
Why wouldn't he? The way things are going, every team in the league will be over the cap limit by January 2007.
anyone know about this rumor three way deal between the Oilers, Canucks & Sabres that was reported on Spector's site???
According to the HF Boards, The Fan in Calgary reported a possible deal involving us giving up Torres and a 1st Rounder, and getting Brierre back. How the hell Vancouver is involved is beyond me. Seems like hot air to me.
Great deal for Hemsky and smart kid for asking for a long-term deal. This team is on the rise. Good job!!
The Sedin's 3-year deals at $3.575M per are beginning to look better and better to those Canucks and their fans. As much as I love Hemsky and think this deal is a good one, I like the Sedin's at $3.5 more.
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A 6 year deal in pro sports in crazy. The NBA has mostly learned this lesson, as has baseball; both leagues went for this length deal a lot more around the turn of the century, and more often than not, they ended up biting teams in the ass.
The amount per year is great for the Oilers, as Hemsky is the best player they have at this point, but 6 years? I hope the deal works out, and sometimes long deals do work, but this is my initial reaction.
# posted by 
: July 25, 2006 4:52 pm
: July 25, 2006 4:52 pm The NBA deals were often longer, and for WAAAY more money. I understand what you are saying, but Hemsky is only 22. And we can always trade him. The money isn't large enought to prohibit that, unlike most of those NBA deals.
I disagree with the assertion that the Oilers will be getting a steal three or four years down the road. That is only true if salaries continue to escalate. That will only happen if the salary cap continues to increase by $5 million or so a year.
If the salary cap remains somewhat static, or even decreases then $4 million today is the same as $4 million in 2009.
That said Hemsky is a great player - I followed his career when he was with the Olympiques - and he may just be worth the money the Oilers are paying him.
# posted by : July 25, 2006 5:08 pm
: July 25, 2006 5:08 pm I disagree with the assertion that the Oilers will be getting a steal three or four years down the road. That is only true if salaries continue to escalate. That will only happen if the salary cap continues to increase by $5 million or so a year.
Totally true, and an assumption I'm not normally comfortable making. But I just did there. Don't know why, but I did. Maybe Avi's growth estimates comfort me. If league revenues grow by 7.3% for the next 5 years, as the NHL predicts, we're laughing. But if it doesn't, we are screwed. But then again, every team will be. How many GMs have you seen making moderate business decisions in the past few weeks?
Oops, that was me, the anonymous at the start. Not that I post here often anyway.
Saying you can trade him seems a little odd. If the deal looks like a stinker, he's very tough to trade with that contract, and if it doesn't, why would you trade him? Unless he starts to hate Edmonton for some reason. But since he made it through Hull for 2 years, that seems less likely.
Again, it was only my initial reaction that 6 years was crazy. If he improves (and the NHL 2006 video game sure thought he would ), it's could be a great deal. But a point per game scorer is not that rare anymore (assuming scoring levels stay near the same); Hemsky was about 45th in the league last year per game scoring, depending on who you want to count. And he was a -5. The Oilers obviously have a lot of faith in him. Can't win without taking any chances, Hemsky seems like a decent one to take, but did it need to be this offseason? Why not next year, after seeing how he does again?
# posted by : July 25, 2006 5:20 pm
: July 25, 2006 5:20 pm Well, it could also be a steal if he becomes a 100-point man in the next couple of years, no? I swear, people have become so obsessed with salary structures they forget that the game's played on ice.
# posted by : July 25, 2006 5:37 pm
: July 25, 2006 5:37 pm This looks brilliant to me. It's refreshing to see a long-term deal signed for a young player who's still entering his prime production years, rather than for a veteran who's leaving them.
As for future dollars, you don't have to believe the NHL's growth figures to think this will work out well. Even at inflation-level discounting, six years will magnify the benefit to the team (eventually reducing his cost by 15%).
Moreover, a $4.1 M charge to the cap is not that big a hit (less than half the player maximum).
As for production comparisons, I don't have anything handy. But why not compare Ales to the player of the moment, Daniel Briere. At Hemsky's age, Briere was scoring 15 points in 30 games and -2.
GOilers!
I am loving this deal. Hemsky's just a kid but how can we forget those goals against Detroit in Game 6 in the 3rd period? Priceless. And he's going to get better.
Not that long-term deals mean anything (Benedict Pronger, anyone?) but at least it provides a bit of security
# posted by : July 25, 2006 6:20 pm
: July 25, 2006 6:20 pm I'm a Flames guy and I have to grudgingly agree this looks like a pretty good deal. He's a pretty flashy player and those guys only get more expensive, not less. If anything, he's only going to score more when he is 26 than he does now. And he'll probably make fewer of those behind the back breakaway passes to the opposing team.
# posted by : July 25, 2006 8:13 pm
: July 25, 2006 8:13 pm Absolutely a great deal - Loxy I think it's a steal even if the cap stays the same and/or Hemsky stagnates at 80pts/yr. Think about the comparables, 4.1 for that type of production isn't much at all. Samsonov is pulling down nearly that amount and he's nowhere near displaying the upside that Hemsky has. Hemsky left a lot on the table today. In 2 years, especially if the cap rises, he would be a 6M+ player easily (again, even at 80pts). If Hemsky continues to develop, this one is a killer deal for Lowe.
-BDV
# posted by : July 25, 2006 8:22 pm
: July 25, 2006 8:22 pm Havlat's problem is that he's been injury-prone. Without looking them up, I'm confident saying that his point-per-game numbers are better than Hemsky's.
In other news, Gomez was awarded $5 million in arbitration, so I'd say that $4 mil for Hemsky is about right.
$4M was the top of my personal comfort zone for this particular chattel, but (a) the league's zany GMs and arbitrators are raising that comfort zone hour upon hour and (b) what's 5% between friends anyway?
# posted by : July 25, 2006 10:15 pm
: July 25, 2006 10:15 pm The kid asked for a long term deal - ASKED - Oiler fans will love that.
Why wouldn't he? The way things are going, every team in the league will be over the cap limit by January 2007.
anyone know about this rumor three way deal between the Oilers, Canucks & Sabres that was reported on Spector's site???
# posted by : July 26, 2006 12:55 am
: July 26, 2006 12:55 am According to the HF Boards, The Fan in Calgary reported a possible deal involving us giving up Torres and a 1st Rounder, and getting Brierre back. How the hell Vancouver is involved is beyond me. Seems like hot air to me.
Great deal for Hemsky and smart kid for asking for a long-term deal. This team is on the rise. Good job!!
The Sedin's 3-year deals at $3.575M per are beginning to look better and better to those Canucks and their fans. As much as I love Hemsky and think this deal is a good one, I like the Sedin's at $3.5 more.
# posted by : July 27, 2006 4:57 pm
: July 27, 2006 4:57 pm Post a Comment
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