Saturday, July 15, 2006


About Those Numbers

Here is an email response I got from Irish Blues, whose "Estimated Cap Impact" numbers I used in yeterday's Cap Watch post. I have already gone through the Eastern Conference, and matched TSN's current depth charts with IB's averaged payroll commitments. But I think for now the best thing to do is just wait until tomorrow or Monday, and take a look at IB's page and spreadsheets then. If people are dying to see my new numbers, based on who TSN says is making the team and what IB says they are making, holler and complain in the comments section. It's a Saturday. What else do I have to do, right?


I am including RFA's in the numbers. There's 2 sets of numbers to look at - the summer numbers and the '06-07 numbers.

The "summer numbers" are the ones in effect right now; this is what the NHL is using to figure out where all 30 teams are right now. It includes all qualifying offers extended to RFA's as long as the offer is valid (5pm today, or right before I send this). While the offer is valid, the amount of the qualifying offer counts toward the team's cap if it's a 1-way offer; the percentage of the QO based on the number of days a player was on an NHL roster in '05-06 is used if it's a 2-way offer.

Should a team sign a player from another team to an offer sheet, the averaged amount of the offer sheet will be charged to the team extending the offer sheet while it has not been accepted or rejected by the player's current team. We may see this happen, and if so my numbers will change accordingly.

Once I update tomorrow (after all QO's will expire and we should know who has and who hasn't accepted), this will be more clear. For more information on this, see Article 50.5(d) in the CBA - it gives a pretty clear explanation of what counts at what periods of time.

The '06-07 numbers currently posted for each team assumes that every player who has a QO accepts it as is; again, this will update tomorrow because those offers will have expired.

What you see for each player's cap number is (as best I can tell) each player's averaged contract salary. It is not the player's actual salary for 2005-06 or for 2006-07. I have many of the contracts documented in my notes where I have the details; otherwise, I'm going off two articles THN has published that listed the cap numbers of most players and, using the '05-06 salaries and some guesswork, coming up with an idea of what those players' salaries are for '06-07 and, if necessary, '07-08 until we know what those salaries really are.

I feel pretty confident that for everyone except the players on entry-level contracts, if I'm off it's not by that much.

The guys on entry-level contracts? I have Cam Barker of Chicago at $984,200 and a Blackhawks fan wrote yesterday and said that Barker's cap number is really $2.8 million. I'm waiting on proof before I change that one, but guys who have the ELC's (and are the ones I have *very* little info on) could be off by hundreds of thousands of dollars each.

The team numbers: mine are the sum of the top 23 cap numbers for the '06-07 team total, the sum of all of the summer cap numbers for the summer team total. I figure (A) going with the top 23 gives a worst-case scenario, and (B) even though some teams may go with 20-22, there's no way of knowing until the final rosters are set how many each team will carry and who will be on the team. This way, each team gets treated equally and then if the final roster is fewer than 23 or if certain players don't show up, it's a bonus.

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