Thursday, June 29, 2006

 

Be The GM, Part III

***Note*** In light of the news that Wade Redden has re-signed with the Senators, I am going to post this now, rather than wait until tomorrow. All of my scenarios were best-case, and I am not terribly hopeful that any of them will actually pan out, but I don't want all my work to end up for naught because a bunch of guys sign contracts before Saturday. Let the daydreaming begin!


Now we get to the heart of the matter. Today I look at which players I would pick up through free agency, and which players I would take for Chris Pronger. Keep in mind that I have no idea about the true market value for some of these guys. I am going by speculation from reporters, some comparison of what players on other teams make, and common sense. Unfortunately, none of that may matter in what a player may actually get.

And by the way, Scenario One is my favorite.

Part I of "Be The GM" is here.
Part II of "Be The GM" is here.

Players Already Signed
Goaltenders: Jussi Markkanen
Defencemen: Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Matt Greene
Forwards: Ryan Smyth, Ethan Moreau, Raffi Torres, Todd Harvey*
*Harvey's situation is still up in the air.

Free Agents I Re-sign
Forwards: Fernando Pisani, Georges Laraque, Shawn Horcoff, Alex Hemsky, Jarret Stoll

Players I Let Go
Goaltenders: Dwayne Roloson, Ty Conklin
Defencemen: Jaroslave Spacek, Igor Ulanov, Dick Tarnstrom
Forwards: Sergei Samsonov, Radek Dvorak, Mike Peca, Rem Murray

Youngblood
I'm more familar with the movie than I am with most of the Oilers prospects, so I'll let Lowetide lead the way on this one. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Robbie Schremp, Jeff DesLauriers and Marc-Antoine Pouliot stick with the team next year.

What I Have So Far (Salary)

Player2006-2007 Salary (US$)
Ryan Smyth
$3.5 million
Shawn Horcoff
$2 million
Jason Smith
$1.976 million
Alex Hemsky
$1.9 million
Steve Staios
$1.615 million
Jarret Stoll
$1.3 million
Georges Laraque
$1.3 million
Fernando Pisani
$1.25 million
Ethan Moreau
$1.026 million
Marc-Andre Bergeron
$969,000
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
$942,400
Raffi Torres
$925,000
Robbie Schremp
$860,000
Matt Greene
$855,000
Jussi Markkanen
$850,000
Jeff DesLauriers
$554,000
Todd Harvey
$551,00
Total With Harvey
$22,373,400
Total Without Harvey
$21,822,400


What I Have So Far (Depth Chart)
(click image to enlarge)


What I Still Need To Add
Goaltenders: 1 starting goaltender
Defencemen: 4 defenceman (a #1, a #1-4, two #7-8's)
Forwards: 2 forwards (a 1st or 2nd line scorer, a 2nd-4th line power forward), maybe 3 or 4 if Schremp and Pouliot are not ready

2006-2007 Budget
What I've Already Spent: $22,373,400 (with Harvey), $21,822,400 (without Harvey)
What I Expect Our Budget To Be: $39 million
What I Have Left To Spend: $16,626,600 (with Harvey), $17,177,600 (without Harvey)

That Giant Pain In The Asset Known As Chris Pronger
My problem right now in drafting up a roster is all the variables. I could come up with ten different roster moves, and it is all a result of Pronger's trade request. Will we be able to get Bouwmeester and Horton out of Florida? Will Wade Redden sign in Ottawa? Where will Ed Jovonoski sign? It goes on and on. Certainly, it makes more sense for some teams to go out and get defencemen through the unrestricted free agency route. There is substantial quality out there, and you don't have to give up anything to get it. On the other hand, Pronger is the best defencemen in the NHL, and his contract is relatively inexpensive. Furthermore, I can't ignore the fact that many General Managers in this league are irrational. Bobby Clarke and Mike Keenan come to mind. So while some may argue that there is no way we can get Jay Bouwmeester out of Florida, or Joni Pitkanen out of Philadelphia, I remain hopeful. Both GM's have a consistent record of going out of their way to make bad deals happen for their team.

My Top Ten Choices For Pronger
Jay Bouwmeester, Nathan Horton, Joni Pitkanen, Simon Gagne, Chris Phillips, Martin Havlat, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Boyes, Henrik Lundqvist, Petr Prucha

My Top Five Choices, Per Position, Via Free Agency & Other Trades
Goaltenders: Ryan Miller, Dominik Hasek, Martin Gerber, Martin Biron, J.S. Giguere
Defencemen: Wade Redden, Ed Jovonoski, Zedeno Chara, Jay McKee, Willie Mitchell
Forwards: Martin Havlat, Patrick Elias, Marc Savard, Vaclav Varada, Mark Parrish



What I Do: Scenario One
Here is what happens in my ideal world. Ed Jovonoski decides to stay in Vancouver because he and his wife love it there. Wade Redden decides to stay in Ottawa. Rob Blake stays in Colorado. And Zedeno Chara ends up in Phoenix. Suddenly, Mike Keenan is out of luck. He calls me, and offers Bouwmeester and Horton. Maybe even more, but I don't want to get greedy here. I accept, and the deal is done. Bouwmeester, the local boy who many used to be compared to Bobby Orr, becomes our number one defenceman. Horton, who scored 28 goals last year, at the age of 21, moves to the left wing. I quickly sign Bouwmeester to a deal worth an average of $2.5 million a year, and Horton a deal averaging $1.5 million a year. I then turn around and sign another defenceman, this time Jay McKee of the Buffalo Sabres. I give him $3 million a year. I now have three quality players for $750,000 more than it cost me for Chris Pronger.

My next move is ballsy, and will surely be criticized by many. I sign the greatest goalie not named Grant Fuhr to ever play the game: Dominik Hasek. I sign him to a one-year deal, for the same amount he made in Ottawa in 2005-2006: $1.52 million. My plan is to play him in only about 50-60 games in the regular season, saving him for the playoffs. Jussi will do a fine job in relief, and I'll even work in DesLauriers for a few games during the season.

And that is all the major moves I make. I bring back Dean McCammond and Marty Reasoner to help fill out the roster, and add some veteran insurance. I keep Todd Harvey, unless he retires on me. I put rookies in my 6-8 spots on defence, and shut down shop. I need to have some money left over to make moves near the trading deadline, and to replace Hasek after he leads us to the Stanley Cup and retires.

What I End Up With (Salary): Scenario One

Player2006-2007 Salary (US$)
Ryan Smyth
$3.5 million
Jay McKee
$3 million
Jay Bouwmeester
$2.5 million
Shawn Horcoff
$2 million
Jason Smith
$1.976 million
Alex Hemsky
$1.9 million
Steve Staios
$1.615 million
Dominik Hasek
$1.52 million
Nathan Horton
$1.5 million
Jarret Stoll
$1.3 million
Georges Laraque
$1.3 million
Fernando Pisani
$1.25 million
Ethan Moreau
$1.026 million
Marc-Andre Bergeron
$969,000
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
$942,400
Raffi Torres
$925,000
Robbie Schremp
$860,000
Matt Greene
$855,000
Jussi Markkanen
$850,000
Marty Reasoner
$750,000
Dean McAmmond
$650,000
Jeff DesLauriers
$554,000
Todd Harvey
$551,00
Danny Syvret
$542,000
Young Gun 1
$500,000
Total
$33,335,400


What I End Up With (Depth Chart): Scenario One
(click image to enlarge)



What I Do: Scenario Two
Redden and Chara leave Ottawa. John Muckler calls me, offering Chris Phillips and Martin Havlat for Pronger. I accept. I sign Havlat to a deal averaging $3.5 million a year. I then sign Jay Mckee AND Willie Mitchell, for $3 million each. My defence is now solid all the way through, if a bit unspectacular. I then sign unrestricted free agent goaltended Martin Gerber from Carolina, for $2 million. I still have enough left over to sign Reasoner, McAmmond and Harvey again, and do so. Danny Syvret will fill out my defensive core, and I am finished.

What I End Up With (Salary): Two

Player2006-2007 Salary (US$)
Ryan Smyth
$3.5 million
Martin Havlat
$3.5 million
Jay McKee
$3 million
Willie Mitchell
$3 million
Martin Gerber
$2 million
Shawn Horcoff
$2 million
Jason Smith
$1.976 million
Alex Hemsky
$1.9 million
Steve Staios
$1.615 million
Dominik Hasek
$1.52 million
Jarret Stoll
$1.3 million
Georges Laraque
$1.3 million
Fernando Pisani
$1.25 million
Ethan Moreau
$1.026 million
Marc-Andre Bergeron
$969,000
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
$942,400
Raffi Torres
$925,000
Robbie Schremp
$860,000
Matt Greene
$855,000
Jussi Markkanen
$850,000
Marty Reasoner
$750,000
Dean McAmmond
$650,000
Jeff DesLauriers
$554,000
Todd Harvey
$551,00
Danny Syvret
$542,000
Total
$38,019,400


What I End Up With (Depth Chart): Scenario Two
(click image to enlarge)



What I Do: Scenario Three
I don't know how Bobby Clarke can find the room to re-sign Simon Gagne and add Chris Pronger, but he says he can do it. I send him Pronger, and he sends me back Joni Pitkanen, Jeff Carter, and Antero Niittymaki. I sign Pitkanen for $2 million, then trade Niittymaki to Buffalo for Martin Biron. The Sabres are happy to get a backup goalie for Ryan Miller, as well as saving some extra cash to sign their multitude of free agents. Biron is so happy to be a starter, I sign him to the same deal he got last year, $2.128 million.

Next I pull of three major free agent signings, adding Wade Redden for $6 million, Willie Mitchell for $3 million, and Mark Parrish for $2.5 million. I add Reasoner, keep Harvey, plug in Syvret, and make sweet love to my Olympian wife for the next 10 months.

What I End Up With (Salary): Scenario Three

Player2006-2007 Salary (US$)
Wade Redden
$6 million
Ryan Smyth
$3.5 million
Willie Mitchell
$3 million
Mark Parrish
$2.5 million
Martin Biron
$2.128 million
Joni Pitkanen
$2 million
Shawn Horcoff
$2 million
Jason Smith
$1.976 million
Alex Hemsky
$1.9 million
Steve Staios
$1.615 million
Jarret Stoll
$1.3 million
Georges Laraque
$1.3 million
Fernando Pisani
$1.25 million
Ethan Moreau
$1.026 million
Marc-Andre Bergeron
$969,000
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
$942,400
Raffi Torres
$925,000
Robbie Schremp
$860,000
Matt Greene
$855,000
Jussi Markkanen
$850,000
Marty Reasoner
$750,000
Jeff DesLauriers
$554,000
Todd Harvey
$551,00
Danny Syvret
$542,000
Total
$40,235,400


What I End Up With (Depth Chart): Scenario Three

(click image to enlarge)




Comments:

Andy some really good plans. But can I have some of what you were smoking... I was following scenario 1 as it making good sense. But then it happened...Ladies and Gentlemen I think Andy found the "Orbs of Power" I think ballsy really is the understatement on the Hasek deal. But hey if he could pull it off I think Kevin should name you an Assistant GM
 


not to be a stickler here but Torres is a LW, BG is a RW and Marty's a centre.

And I would be fucking floored if Rob Schremp plays centre on a MacT coached team.
 


Bouwmeester and Horton are what i'm wanting Kevin Lowe to get for Pronger as well. Just don't know about that Hasek thing. That's a big gamble.
 


The biggest problem that I see in all of these scenarios is the following:

All the forwards are floating around at the other team's blueline and our dmen are way too passive. Gap control people! Gap control!
 


I know about the positions of all three guys. I just don't care. I want my main guys in their correct positions, and the rest can be wherever the hell they want. And I put Reasoner on the right simply because I didn't know if there would be enough room under McAmmond.

What would we have to lose with Hasek? He was awesome until he got hurt last year. Rest him a bit more, and have the money left over to replace him at the deadline if he gets hurt.
 


Good work, Andy. Any of these scenarios would work out well for the Oil.

A few comments:

• I can't see Havlat agreeing to a deal worth $3.5 mil a year. He's a point a game player; if he's going to forego the open market next summer, it's going to be for at least 4.5 mil, but more likely 5-5.5 a year.

• The only way they get Pitkainen, Carter, and NIttymaki out of Philly (without giving up players in addition to Pronger) is if Bobby Clarke has been given the old Isaiah Thomas 'one-year ultimatum' by owner Ed Snider. They could get the latter two, but Nittymaki won't be thrown in. He was a better goalie than Esche at times this year.

• I might be missing something, but $3 million a year seems awfully steep for Willie Mitchell.

• What's your position on signing guys like Stoll, Hemsky, and Horcoff to long-term deals versus signing them to one-year qualifying offers?
 


Nice work lad. Is there anything to indicate that Jovo won't land in Florida?
 


Andy, I like a lot if it.

Scenario One is reasonable - I don't like Hasek as the solution in net and think they are a little thin on the blueline - I'd prefer to see Staios in the third pair next year. But at 33M you still have the money to add another Dman (Aaron Ward?), an upgrade in net (whoever - sorry, Hasek is too big a gamble) and probably a better third lien centre. Plus you can save 900K by dumping MAB and 1.3M on LeGG - seriously, if you bring him back, do it for half that.

Scenario 2 - Havlat won't sign, apparently and not for 3.5 - Phillips is also a UFA next season so ... not sure about this one at all. I like Phillips a lot but not sure what else Ottawa can offer. I like Fisher and Vermette - both are underrated, imo, but maybe still not a good deal.

Scenario 3 - this is the one I like - you might not get the Finn goalie but you still get Biron or Denis in a trade. Carter, Stoll and MAP are your #2 #3 #4 centres and Reasoner is in the mix too, which I like. Again, dump MAB and LeGG. With Redden out of the picture now too your Cap is actually @32 which means you get another Dman to replace Redden and can upgrade elsewhere.

I vote # 3 with conditions listed above.
 


Some points:

1. I generally gave players an increase in salary from previous years, based on how the old CBA worked. It still left me with lots of dough, so I figured it was the safer option. I agree that Le GG shouldn't make 1.3, and would be happy to cut his salary in half.

2. I do think 3 milionl is too much for Mitchell, in the same way I think it is too much for McKee. But from what I have read, that will be the asking price for both. Other choices may in fact be better.

3. I think Pitkanen, Carter AND Niittymaki for Pronger is a steal for the Flyers. Only Pitkanen has really established himself. Carter has "upside," but who knows if he will pan out? I don't think I was being unreasonable in that trade request. The problem with making a trade with Philly is budgetary.

4. I generally prefer short-term contracts. I don't like being stuck with a contract of a player who isn't performing. That being said, signing a player for a longer term keeps them with the team (unless they have to be traded for "personal reasons") and, if the cap continues to go up, makes the player cheaper. I think Avi's point about Brad Richards' salary is spot-on. He gets cheaper as the cap goes up. Look at Pronger, for example. But if it doesn't go up, or if it goes down, you are screwed. I would sign Horcoff to a two or three year deal, max. Same for Stoll, who I think they will eventually trade. Hemsky I would sign for longer. Maybe 4-5 years. I would have to look at the CBA to get an idea about free agency and years of service and all that to be sure, but that is my initial reaction.

5. I wonder if Hasek will pull a Roger Clemens this year, and wait to sign with a team until the stretch-drive?

6. We should be talking more about Parrish, who is really underrated. All the guy does is score goals. I'd like to know what his PP numbers are like, but I'm too lazy to check. I spent a whole day doing these three posts, and am burnt out.

7. I wish there was a free agency generator out there, where you could click on your team, have their existing payroll pop-up, and then tinker with payroll. Sort of like the mock-draft thing they do on ESPN, but for free agency and the like. I could spend HOURS doing that.

8. Havlat's asking price is ridiculous. So is Elias'.
 


Parrish is like Cris Carter right - all he does is score touchdowns.

I like Elias - I think he gets 7M and its with Team Czech, the Rangers. Havlat can be dynamite and then he can disappear. Not a huge fan.

Agreed on the likely cost for Mitchell and McKee.

I like the Flyer deal personally. And I think Carter is going to be a bigtime player, personally. The FL deal is nice too but Horton's injury history scares me.

Rumoured Atlanta deal - Hossa plus Coburn. I could get on board with that one too.

Too me they have three issues - starting goalie, rebuild the D, scoring depth - the first two based on offseason departures, the third based on the fact that we basically had no scoring from our second line in the playoffs and that killed us - has anyone seen Stoll recently?
 


Looks like Harvey is a free agent, now.
 


We basically had no scoring from our second line in the playoffs and that killed us.

We had no scoring from the first-line either, but I'll save that for another day. Argentina and Germany are about to play. This game should be dynamite. I heading over to Sports Matters to comment.
 


Parrish is usually a good ES scorer and pretty much terrible on the PP. Kind of like Torres in that respect actually.

Last season was a little weird. He only posted 1.37 ESP/hr vs. his previous 4-yr average of 1.86. His PP rate spiked up to 5.12 when compared to his 4-yr average of 3.49.

One thing that worries me is that Parrish posted a shooting percentage of 16.8% in his first 5 NHL seasons (383 games). If you look around this SH% percentage is very good. Last season he shot 21.2% and in 03/04 he shot 22.9%. I think it's possible that he's had some luck the past couple of years and especially so on the power play last year. Basically, if you sign him you have to weigh the risk that his SH% and PPP/hr rates from the past year or two are sustainable with his price. Given that his +/- are typically pretty bad, I'm not sure he's worth the risk.
 


None of us have speculated about Guerin yet. Any idea where he is going?
 


Guerin signs for cheap + bonus somewhere desperate (Chicago, Boston). Scores 40 goals on the Stars coin, while the Stars fail to make the playoffs.

Or the Stars make it to the playoffs and lose to the Oilers in round 1.

Poetic.
 


In the finals Andy that is true but Horcoff and Smyth chipped in their fair share before that. I think Horc never really recovered from that flu. And check out some of the stiffs they had to play with too.

Of course, in an ideal world they are our second line.

Maybe in a year or two??
 


re: your goaltender list

Goaltenders: Ryan Miller(unavailable), Dominik Hasek (injury prone), Martin Gerber, Martin Biron, J.S. Giguere (contract too big)

Biron, Gerber

ok,

here's a game

name the following goaltender:

1) is UFA on July 1
2) made < $2M last year
3) top 10 in SV% in 05-06 (.915) Roloson was 16th FYI, Gerber 17th, Biron 19th
4) top 5 in GAA in 05-06 (2.19) Roloson was 15th, Gerber 18th, Biron 22nd

can prolly be had for less $$ than Roloson and Gerber

it's my wacky choice, probably a little bit risky -- but that risk can be mitigated quite a bit by Edmonton signing him
 


I know! I know!

But i have inside info so won't say.
 


Good God. Manny Legace? Your are joking, right? Is he even still alive?
 


Apparently he did not hang himself.

He was a head case -- and I realize that is a risk, but he is 34 y old. Would the Oiler's signing him be enough of a psychological boost? I don't know

His fundamentals are very strong -- his save % did not drop much in the switch to smaller equipment. Same cannot be said for others.

He is more proven in the regular season than all of your choices. I think if you are the Oilers your goal is to get to the playoffs.

I speculate that Legace could get them there.
 


He is more proven in the regular season than all of your choices.

I think Dominik Hasek's Vezina's would tell you differently. Even last year, at the age of 40, he was fantastic:

Wins: 28 (18th)
Losses: 10
GAA: 2.09 (2nd)
SV%: .925 (2nd)
SO: 5 (4th)

And he did all that in half a season. And don't tell me it was Ottawa's defence. It helped, for sure, but Patrick Lalime played in front of the same guys. For $1.5 million, he is a steal. Hell, you could sign him AND another Legace for under 3. Let Legace play the regular season, and put Hasek in during the playoffs.
 


Lots going on. Lidstrom has signed with the Wings, the Leafs have let go Domi and Belfour, and Tampa Bay has traded for Freddy Modin to Columbus fpr Marc Denis.
 


I like the Hasek idea. As for it being a risk, it's hardly a bigger risk that the Oilers' goaltending "plan" at the start of the 05-06 season.
 


avi - that's true

But then again I'm half in the bag!

Whoo!
 


Can't we just get Biron..please?

The Legace/Hasek choice seems to be "pick the caliber of your handgun for russian roullette". Hasek is old and liable to become injured at inopportune moments. Legace's mental toughness is questionable, and I have to wonder how far he is from pulling a Tommy Salo even without the assistance of Comrie.
 

Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?