Thursday, April 27, 2006
Numb3rs
So, Willie Mitchell accidentally kicked it into his own net last night, which means that Colorado has taken a 3-0 lead in the series, which means they're probably going to win, which means...
...that on Cosh's Big Spreadsheet, the likelihood of a Battle of Alberta is now up to 37.1%. As I noted Tuesday, a Colorado series win means CGY & EDM advancing = CGY & EDM facing each other.
[Sidebar: the 37.1% is a function of three inputs, right: the likelihoods that CGY, EDM, and COL will each win. You may have noted that the B.S. still gives Dallas a 20.6% chance of winning their series. The spreadsheet is what it is; it uses some things and ignores others, as Cosh explains in the methodology. Obviously, a human would peg that percentage lower, since coming back from 3-0 down has only ever happened twice in NHL history (and never in basketball, and the notable once in baseball).
That said, the DAL/COL series is as good a candidate as I can imagine for the big reversal, and the B.S. gives the biggest clue why: that Theodore is probably unsound. Add on that the Stars were the better team in every interval you could choose over the season, and I personally would give the 3-0 comeback at least a 5% or maybe a 10% chance of happening.]
...that on Cosh's Big Spreadsheet, the likelihood of a Battle of Alberta is now up to 37.1%. As I noted Tuesday, a Colorado series win means CGY & EDM advancing = CGY & EDM facing each other.
[Sidebar: the 37.1% is a function of three inputs, right: the likelihoods that CGY, EDM, and COL will each win. You may have noted that the B.S. still gives Dallas a 20.6% chance of winning their series. The spreadsheet is what it is; it uses some things and ignores others, as Cosh explains in the methodology. Obviously, a human would peg that percentage lower, since coming back from 3-0 down has only ever happened twice in NHL history (and never in basketball, and the notable once in baseball).
That said, the DAL/COL series is as good a candidate as I can imagine for the big reversal, and the B.S. gives the biggest clue why: that Theodore is probably unsound. Add on that the Stars were the better team in every interval you could choose over the season, and I personally would give the 3-0 comeback at least a 5% or maybe a 10% chance of happening.]
# posted by Matt @ 7:00 am 
Comments:
The B.S. also gave the Devils less than a 20 per cent chance to advance out of the first round. And that's with Brodeur in net. Riiiigghtt.
I think I'll just watch all the teams play all year and decide from that who'll win.
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The B.S. also gave the Devils less than a 20 per cent chance to advance out of the first round. And that's with Brodeur in net. Riiiigghtt.
I think I'll just watch all the teams play all year and decide from that who'll win.
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