Tuesday, April 25, 2006



This business of Colorado beating Dallas twice at home is quite something, and has one important implication you should be clear about:

Colorado Win + Calgary Win + Edmonton Win = Battle of Alberta in Round 2.

I'm not cheering for the Oilers until the final seconds tick off of both the Avs' and Flames' 4th victories, but it could happen. (The B.S. has the odds of a (2nd or 3rd Rd) EDM-CGY matchup at 14.9%, up from 7.9% just before the playoffs started.)


The odds are increasing -- Dall-ass looks like they are really not into it. To come back from down 3 last night and inevitably lose it will be emotionally tough. However, I doubt Dall-ass will roll over.

My dream sequence is for Edmonton to proceed and play Dallas in round 2. Exorcise its vs Dallas demons. Then perhaps a BOFA for the conference final. Better, no?

Or, mayhaps we get the quad upset with seeds 5-8 proceeding?

The B.O.A. matchup is even more likely if you regard Colorado as having a greater than 54% chance of finishing off the Stars, which I suspect most humans would right now.

The way Calgary has been playing, it's more likely that Anaheim is going to be moving on. Who would the Oilers face then?

On the premise of Calgary being eliminated and Edmonton advancing, Dallas is still the most likely opponent, since it would be the new #1 seed in the conference. Otherwise, with all top three seeds face down in the drink, Edmonton would play the Preds-Sharks winner.

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