Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Sacamano's Playoff Predictor [UPDATED]
[UPDATE]: The Playoff Predictor has been updated to fix some calculation errors. The last few days of the season were not being included in the last version. I think everything is kosher now.
If you're like me, it is about this time in the season that you start to spend hundreds of hours running through the remaining schedule, trying to predict who will beat whom and how this will all play out in terms of playoff positions.
To help you all out, and to further reduce your productivity at work, I've made a little spreadsheet in Excel that will automatically calculate the points and rank of the top 11 Western Conference Teams based on your predictions for the remaining games.
Alas, I'm not web-savvy enough to make it an online interactive deal, so you will have to download and/or open it on your own computer. If anyone out there wants to put it up in web format (if such a thing is even possible), you are more than welcome to do so.
Just click on the picture of it below and it should come up.
Enjoy and let me know if I messed up anything.
Note: It gives the "absolute" ranks and doesn't take into account the divisional champions, but I figured we are all bright enough to figure that on our own.
If you're like me, it is about this time in the season that you start to spend hundreds of hours running through the remaining schedule, trying to predict who will beat whom and how this will all play out in terms of playoff positions.
To help you all out, and to further reduce your productivity at work, I've made a little spreadsheet in Excel that will automatically calculate the points and rank of the top 11 Western Conference Teams based on your predictions for the remaining games.
Alas, I'm not web-savvy enough to make it an online interactive deal, so you will have to download and/or open it on your own computer. If anyone out there wants to put it up in web format (if such a thing is even possible), you are more than welcome to do so.
Just click on the picture of it below and it should come up.
Enjoy and let me know if I messed up anything.
Note: It gives the "absolute" ranks and doesn't take into account the divisional champions, but I figured we are all bright enough to figure that on our own.
# posted by sacamano @ 11:52 am 
Comments:
Its a good chart Sacamano, the only error with it is that the 3rd and 4th place teams are incorrect because whoever wins the Northwest will finish 3rd, while the Predators will probably finish 4th and have more points than the 3rd place finisher.
Not sure how you can fix it though. I just like pointing out errors, it makes me feel smart.
Ummmm. I think I mentioned that in the note. You know, the part where I say: "I figured we are all bright enough to figure that on our own."
Perhaps I was mistaken . . . ?
It's brilliant, but I think it is rigged. Even though I picked the Flames to win every remaining game, they finished with -100 points. And the Oilers finished with 164 points.
Really? I threw it together pretty quickly and may have messed up on some of those array formulae, I'll check it tonight
Damn, I wish I had thought of putting in a huge "ERROR-DOES NOT COMPUTE" whenever someone tried to pick a Calgary win.
I really enjoy the random Thrashers-Lightning game that made it on to that list. Does it have some sort of impact on the Western Conference playoff race that I'm not aware of?
Seriously though, great work.
1 Detroit 108
2 Dallas 101
3 Nashville 97
4 Calgary 93
5 Anaheim 89
6 Colorado 88
7 Edmonton 86
8 San Jose 86
9 Los Angeles 85
10 Vancouver 85
11 Minnesota 77
erm... we're going to need some tiebreaker datum thrown in there... good god will it be tight.
It has come to my attention that there are some errors in the predictor.
I'll work on it today and put up a revised version.
I ran it (the updated one), and was surprised to find I have the Ducks finishing 9th. Turns out they have a pretty brutal schedule; lots of tough road games, plus Dallas at home a couple of times.
Cool stuff, sacamano. Thanks.
Man, is there ever a lot of hockey left yet. And I agree with Matt, if ANA can get into the playoffs with that sked, they deserve it. But even if the Ducks play well and keep getting good goaltending ... they'll probably need at least one other team to crap the bed I'd think.
How about this as a perfect storm.
Input these into the predictor and you have all NW teams in a tie, with one of them being out of the playoffs based on the tiebreakers.
1 Detroit 120
2 Nashville 112
3 Dallas 109
4 Anaheim 106
5 San Jose 98
6 Calgary 97
7 Colorado 97
8 Edmonton 97
9 Vancouver 97
10 Los Angeles 91
28-Mar-06 Sharks W Blue Jackets L
28-Mar-06 Mighty Ducks W Avalanche L
28-Mar-06 Wild L Oilers W
28-Mar-06 Predators W Coyotes L
29-Mar-06 Blues W Blackhawks L
29-Mar-06 Mighty Ducks W Stars L
29-Mar-06 Kings L Flames W
29-Mar-06 Wild L Canucks W
30-Mar-06 Red Wings L Predators W
30-Mar-06 Kings W Oilers L
30-Mar-06 Coyotes L Sharks W
31-Mar-06 Blackhawks L Red Wings W
31-Mar-06 Avalanche W Flames L
31-Mar-06 Wild L Canucks W
31-Mar-06 Stars L Mighty Ducks W
1-Apr-06 Blues L Predators W
1-Apr-06 Flames L Oilers W
1-Apr-06 Stars L Kings W
1-Apr-06 Coyotes L Sharks W
2-Apr-06 Red Wings W Wild L
2-Apr-06 Canucks OTL Mighty Ducks OTW
3-Apr-06 Blue Jackets L Predators W
3-Apr-06 Sharks L Stars W
3-Apr-06 Blackhawks W Avalanche L
3-Apr-06 Red Wings L Flames W
3-Apr-06 Coyotes L Oilers W
3-Apr-06 Canucks W Kings L
4-Apr-06 Blues W Wild L
4-Apr-06 Kings L Mighty Ducks W
5-Apr-06 Predators W Blackhawks L
5-Apr-06 Sharks L Avalanche W
5-Apr-06 Coyotes L Flames W
6-Apr-06 Predators W Blues L
6-Apr-06 Oilers L Wild W
6-Apr-06 Stars L Mighty Ducks W
6-Apr-06 Sharks W Kings L
7-Apr-06 Blue Jackets L Red Wings W
7-Apr-06 Oilers W Blackhawks L
7-Apr-06 Wild L Flames W
8-Apr-06 Blues L Avalanche W
8-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Kings L
8-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blue Jackets L
8-Apr-06 Blackhawks L Predators W
8-Apr-06 Flames L Canucks W
8-Apr-06 Stars W Coyotes L
9-Apr-06 Oilers W Blues L
9-Apr-06 Stars L Sharks W
9-Apr-06 Wild OTW Avalanche OTL
10-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Canucks L
10-Apr-06 Sharks W Coyotes L
11-Apr-06 Oilers W Red Wings L
11-Apr-06 Predators L Blues W
11-Apr-06 Blackhawks W Wild L
11-Apr-06 Blue Jackets W Stars L
11-Apr-06 Coyotes W Avalanche L
11-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks L Flames W
12-Apr-06 Sharks W Canucks L
13-Apr-06 Wild L Predators W
13-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blackhawks L
13-Apr-06 Avalanche OTW Flames OTL
13-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Oilers L
13-Apr-06 Kings W Coyotes L
13-Apr-06 Canucks W Sharks L
15-Apr-06 Wild L Stars W
15-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks L Sharks W
15-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blues L
15-Apr-06 Coyotes L Predators W
15-Apr-06 Avalanche L Canucks W
15-Apr-06 Flames L Kings W
17-Apr-06 Stars W Red Wings L
17-Apr-06 Avalanche OTW Oilers OTL
17-Apr-06 Flames L Mighty Ducks W
17-Apr-06 Kings W Sharks L
18-Apr-06 Stars W Blue Jackets L
18-Apr-06 Red Wings W Predators L
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Its a good chart Sacamano, the only error with it is that the 3rd and 4th place teams are incorrect because whoever wins the Northwest will finish 3rd, while the Predators will probably finish 4th and have more points than the 3rd place finisher.
Not sure how you can fix it though. I just like pointing out errors, it makes me feel smart.
Ummmm. I think I mentioned that in the note. You know, the part where I say: "I figured we are all bright enough to figure that on our own."
Perhaps I was mistaken . . . ?
It's brilliant, but I think it is rigged. Even though I picked the Flames to win every remaining game, they finished with -100 points. And the Oilers finished with 164 points.
# posted by 
: March 21, 2006 4:57 pm
: March 21, 2006 4:57 pm Really? I threw it together pretty quickly and may have messed up on some of those array formulae, I'll check it tonight
Damn, I wish I had thought of putting in a huge "ERROR-DOES NOT COMPUTE" whenever someone tried to pick a Calgary win.
I really enjoy the random Thrashers-Lightning game that made it on to that list. Does it have some sort of impact on the Western Conference playoff race that I'm not aware of?
Seriously though, great work.
1 Detroit 108
2 Dallas 101
3 Nashville 97
4 Calgary 93
5 Anaheim 89
6 Colorado 88
7 Edmonton 86
8 San Jose 86
9 Los Angeles 85
10 Vancouver 85
11 Minnesota 77
erm... we're going to need some tiebreaker datum thrown in there... good god will it be tight.
It has come to my attention that there are some errors in the predictor.
I'll work on it today and put up a revised version.
I ran it (the updated one), and was surprised to find I have the Ducks finishing 9th. Turns out they have a pretty brutal schedule; lots of tough road games, plus Dallas at home a couple of times.
Cool stuff, sacamano. Thanks.
Man, is there ever a lot of hockey left yet. And I agree with Matt, if ANA can get into the playoffs with that sked, they deserve it. But even if the Ducks play well and keep getting good goaltending ... they'll probably need at least one other team to crap the bed I'd think.
How about this as a perfect storm.
Input these into the predictor and you have all NW teams in a tie, with one of them being out of the playoffs based on the tiebreakers.
1 Detroit 120
2 Nashville 112
3 Dallas 109
4 Anaheim 106
5 San Jose 98
6 Calgary 97
7 Colorado 97
8 Edmonton 97
9 Vancouver 97
10 Los Angeles 91
28-Mar-06 Sharks W Blue Jackets L
28-Mar-06 Mighty Ducks W Avalanche L
28-Mar-06 Wild L Oilers W
28-Mar-06 Predators W Coyotes L
29-Mar-06 Blues W Blackhawks L
29-Mar-06 Mighty Ducks W Stars L
29-Mar-06 Kings L Flames W
29-Mar-06 Wild L Canucks W
30-Mar-06 Red Wings L Predators W
30-Mar-06 Kings W Oilers L
30-Mar-06 Coyotes L Sharks W
31-Mar-06 Blackhawks L Red Wings W
31-Mar-06 Avalanche W Flames L
31-Mar-06 Wild L Canucks W
31-Mar-06 Stars L Mighty Ducks W
1-Apr-06 Blues L Predators W
1-Apr-06 Flames L Oilers W
1-Apr-06 Stars L Kings W
1-Apr-06 Coyotes L Sharks W
2-Apr-06 Red Wings W Wild L
2-Apr-06 Canucks OTL Mighty Ducks OTW
3-Apr-06 Blue Jackets L Predators W
3-Apr-06 Sharks L Stars W
3-Apr-06 Blackhawks W Avalanche L
3-Apr-06 Red Wings L Flames W
3-Apr-06 Coyotes L Oilers W
3-Apr-06 Canucks W Kings L
4-Apr-06 Blues W Wild L
4-Apr-06 Kings L Mighty Ducks W
5-Apr-06 Predators W Blackhawks L
5-Apr-06 Sharks L Avalanche W
5-Apr-06 Coyotes L Flames W
6-Apr-06 Predators W Blues L
6-Apr-06 Oilers L Wild W
6-Apr-06 Stars L Mighty Ducks W
6-Apr-06 Sharks W Kings L
7-Apr-06 Blue Jackets L Red Wings W
7-Apr-06 Oilers W Blackhawks L
7-Apr-06 Wild L Flames W
8-Apr-06 Blues L Avalanche W
8-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Kings L
8-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blue Jackets L
8-Apr-06 Blackhawks L Predators W
8-Apr-06 Flames L Canucks W
8-Apr-06 Stars W Coyotes L
9-Apr-06 Oilers W Blues L
9-Apr-06 Stars L Sharks W
9-Apr-06 Wild OTW Avalanche OTL
10-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Canucks L
10-Apr-06 Sharks W Coyotes L
11-Apr-06 Oilers W Red Wings L
11-Apr-06 Predators L Blues W
11-Apr-06 Blackhawks W Wild L
11-Apr-06 Blue Jackets W Stars L
11-Apr-06 Coyotes W Avalanche L
11-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks L Flames W
12-Apr-06 Sharks W Canucks L
13-Apr-06 Wild L Predators W
13-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blackhawks L
13-Apr-06 Avalanche OTW Flames OTL
13-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks W Oilers L
13-Apr-06 Kings W Coyotes L
13-Apr-06 Canucks W Sharks L
15-Apr-06 Wild L Stars W
15-Apr-06 Mighty Ducks L Sharks W
15-Apr-06 Red Wings W Blues L
15-Apr-06 Coyotes L Predators W
15-Apr-06 Avalanche L Canucks W
15-Apr-06 Flames L Kings W
17-Apr-06 Stars W Red Wings L
17-Apr-06 Avalanche OTW Oilers OTL
17-Apr-06 Flames L Mighty Ducks W
17-Apr-06 Kings W Sharks L
18-Apr-06 Stars W Blue Jackets L
18-Apr-06 Red Wings W Predators L
# posted by : March 28, 2006 12:24 pm
: March 28, 2006 12:24 pm Post a Comment
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