Back at the end of September, sacamano and I (and a few others) had a protracted and somewhat pissy discussion about whether more powerplays means more goal scoring. Intuitively, the answer is "Of course!". Tom Benjamin reminded us that it's not that simple, because while the PP team has a much better chance of scoring, the SH team has a much worse chance of scoring, and it evens things out to a great extent (if not entirely).

Anyway, here's some sa-tistics, as of Thursday or Friday. Goal info is from NHL.com; "time" info is from mc79hockey.com. Special teams scoring includes all PP and SH goals. Also, apparently empty net goals scored on the PP or SH are not counted at special teams goals, as they don't seem to be double-counted in the stats I reviewed.

2003/2004

• Goals per game: 5.14
• Even strength goals per game: 3.40
• Even strength play per game: 46:03
• Even strength scoring frequency: 1 goal every 13:32
• Special teams goals per game: 1.57
• Special teams play per game: 13:38
• Special teams scoring frequency: 1 goal every 8:42
• Empty net & penalty shot scoring: 0.17 goals per game (accounts for 19 sec/game)

2005/2006

• Goals per game: 6.17
• Even strength goals per game: 3.61
• Even strength play per game: 40:32
• Even strength scoring frequency: 1 goal every 11:14
• Special teams goals per game: 2.39
• Special teams play per game: 19:09
• Special teams scoring frequency: 1 goal every 8:01
• Empty net & penalty shot scoring: 0.17 goals per game (accounts for 19 sec/game)

What does it all mean? I dunno.

In terms of frequency, it's actually even strength scoring that's up a lot, not special teams scoring. However, in raw numbers, that's almost completely offset by the reduced time of even strength play.

You could attribute this increase in ES scoring frequency to all sorts of things. The smaller goalie equipment; no red line; a successful reduction in obstruction; the icing disincentive, etc.. I really don't know.

The special teams scoring frequency is up only slightly (8:01 from 8:42). Your intuitive explanation for this increase might be the increased number of 5-on-3 PPs. If so, you are absolutely right.

Last season (1230 games), there were a total of 154 goals scored on 5-on-3. This season, through 603 games, there were 178 goals scored 5-on-3. If you use the "old" 5-on-3 scoring pace (75 goals to date), and update the numbers above (basically, just reducing the # of special teams goals by 103), the special teams scoring frequency becomes one goal every 8:38: virtually identical to last season.

Conclusions

Let's assume that since we've shown that NON-5-on-3 PP success has remained constant from last season, then 5-on-3 PP success has as well; I think this is reasonable (until Mudcrutch posts "Time of 5-on-3" data...). The increase of 1.03 goals per game this season is a result of the following:

• 0.21 GPG - even strength, despite the reduced amount of ES play
• 0.27 GPG - increased frequency of 5-on-3 situations
• 0.55 GPG - increased frequency of 5-on-4 and 4-on-3 situations

How much would scoring be up this season if PP and ES time broke down the same as last season (and thus, if the raw number of special teams goals was the same as last season)? Scoring would be up by 0.49 GPG instead of 1.03 GPG.

OK, now go ahead and rip my assumptions and calculations to shreds...