Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Of Wins and Two-Goal Leads...
I might as well do this before some hater beats me to it.
A brief recent history of Calgary 2-goal leads, in reverse chronological order:
Of the remaining 17 times the Flames have taken a 2-goal lead, they have scored the next goal 5 times, and their opponent has scored the next goal 12 times.
Of those 12 times, their opponent has scored again to tie the game 8 times. The game has ended 3 times, and only once has Calgary scored again to retake a 2-goal lead.
Overall, the Flames score slightly more goals than they prevent, so what is the deal here? Lack of killer instinct, or statistical aberration? Probably some of both, but I'm leaning a bit toward the latter. Here's the Flames record, and % of available points, with various maximum leads:
A brief recent history of Calgary 2-goal leads, in reverse chronological order:
- 2-0 v. NYR (result: 4-2 Loss)
- 3-1 v. VAN (result: 4-3 OT Loss)
- 2-0 v. EDM (result: 6-5 Win)
- 4-2 v. MIN (result: 4-2 Win)
- 2-0 v. NSH (result: 4-3 Loss)
- 2-0 v. L.A. (result: 5-2 Loss)
- 4-2 v. EDM (result: 5-4 Loss)
Of the remaining 17 times the Flames have taken a 2-goal lead, they have scored the next goal 5 times, and their opponent has scored the next goal 12 times.
Of those 12 times, their opponent has scored again to tie the game 8 times. The game has ended 3 times, and only once has Calgary scored again to retake a 2-goal lead.
Overall, the Flames score slightly more goals than they prevent, so what is the deal here? Lack of killer instinct, or statistical aberration? Probably some of both, but I'm leaning a bit toward the latter. Here's the Flames record, and % of available points, with various maximum leads:
- No lead: 0-6-3 (16.7%)
- 1-goal: 10-3-0 (76.9%)
- 2-goal: 10-4-2 (68.8%)
- 3-goal: 4-0-0 (100.0%)
- 4-goal: 1-0-0 (100.0%)
- Total: 25-13-5 (64.0%)
# posted by Matt @ 12:12 pm 
Comments:
Well, you know, a two goal lead is the most dangerous lead in hockey.
I'm entirely unsuprised that you would conclude that it is a statistical aberation as opposed to concluding that the Flames are simply a mentally weak team that has trouble scoring and tends to rely on their goaltending a bit too much.
There are some statistical aberrations there -- until the recent meltdowns of the last 3 weeks, the Flames were 8-0-1 in 2 goal games. Which was almost too good. Leads are harder to protect than they used to be.
That makes the recent 2-4-1 record a bit aberrent. The Flames aren't that bad, just like they aren't 8-0-1 good. They should be better than 10-4-2, though. But this should all even out in the next while.
At least the Flames have actually gone up 2 goals a bit lately and against some good teams. That's some small cold comfort.
Pretty small and pretty cold, I know, but it's something.
Speaking of mentally weak.
It must give some people brain cramps to try to comprehend how a team they consider "simply a mentally weak team that has trouble scoring and tends to rely on their goaltending a bit too much" could be first in the NHL's toughest division more than halfway through the season.
I'm almost frightened to see their descriptions of the teams LOWER in the standings.
Yeah, frustrating as those recent losses have been, we are still ahead of the Oil.
Go Flames
You mean all threeof those teams lower in the division standings that have precisely one fewer win than the Flames?
Ya, I can see how it must really mess with your noodle to even compare the Flames with them.
Actually, I don't have any problem comparing them. In fact I think that all the NW teams are quite good. And if the Flames get a good centre, or the Avs, 'Nucks, or Oil get a good goalie, then I'd consider that team to be exceptional.
Seriously, I'm not the one who has trouble comparing the teams.
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Well, you know, a two goal lead is the most dangerous lead in hockey.
I'm entirely unsuprised that you would conclude that it is a statistical aberation as opposed to concluding that the Flames are simply a mentally weak team that has trouble scoring and tends to rely on their goaltending a bit too much.
There are some statistical aberrations there -- until the recent meltdowns of the last 3 weeks, the Flames were 8-0-1 in 2 goal games. Which was almost too good. Leads are harder to protect than they used to be.
That makes the recent 2-4-1 record a bit aberrent. The Flames aren't that bad, just like they aren't 8-0-1 good. They should be better than 10-4-2, though. But this should all even out in the next while.
At least the Flames have actually gone up 2 goals a bit lately and against some good teams. That's some small cold comfort.
Pretty small and pretty cold, I know, but it's something.
# posted by 
: January 11, 2006 1:57 pm
: January 11, 2006 1:57 pm Speaking of mentally weak.
It must give some people brain cramps to try to comprehend how a team they consider "simply a mentally weak team that has trouble scoring and tends to rely on their goaltending a bit too much" could be first in the NHL's toughest division more than halfway through the season.
I'm almost frightened to see their descriptions of the teams LOWER in the standings.
# posted by : January 11, 2006 2:22 pm
: January 11, 2006 2:22 pm Yeah, frustrating as those recent losses have been, we are still ahead of the Oil.
Go Flames
# posted by : January 11, 2006 2:32 pm
: January 11, 2006 2:32 pm You mean all threeof those teams lower in the division standings that have precisely one fewer win than the Flames?
Ya, I can see how it must really mess with your noodle to even compare the Flames with them.
Actually, I don't have any problem comparing them. In fact I think that all the NW teams are quite good. And if the Flames get a good centre, or the Avs, 'Nucks, or Oil get a good goalie, then I'd consider that team to be exceptional.
Seriously, I'm not the one who has trouble comparing the teams.
# posted by : January 11, 2006 2:57 pm
: January 11, 2006 2:57 pm Post a Comment
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