Thursday, January 12, 2006


Happy stats!

I thought I'd take a quick look at the flip side of yesterday's "Defending a Lead" stats. The Flames have played 43 games so far this season, and have trailed at some point in 29 of them. Here's the Flames record, and % of available points, for various maximum scoreboard deficits:
For a team that we all know can't score, has no punch, blah blah blah, that doesn't seem bad at all.

The aspect of these numbers that jumps out at me is this: the Flames have won 13 games in which they trailed at some point, whereas they've only lost 7 games in which they led at some point (plus another 2 in OT/SO).

Weird: the Flames have an identical 10-4-2 record in games which they've led by 2, and games which they've trailed by 1.

The other nice "big picture" aspect of these numbers is that they've only had 6 games in which they've trailed by 3 goals or more. Three of these were in the first four games of the season. Since then, they've literally been in every single game: only twice since Game 4 have they been as many as 2 goals down going into the third period, and one of those they won--in regulation.

Last item: these numbers show that 21 of the Flames' 43 games have featured at least one lead change, or 48.8%. (The 22 that haven't comes from 14 where CGY never trailed, plus 9 where they never led, minus the one which is double-counted.) The NHL numbers as of yesterday were 310/636, or 48.7%. So much for boring Flames hockey; I have no idea which teams are pulling the numbers down, but Calgary's not one of them.


I'm an outsider, but I assumed that "boring Calgary" comments were more directed at the low goal totals, not so much at lead changes. Calgary is averaging 1/2 a goal per game lower than all but 2 other teams (total goals), and if you're not a Flame fan, I can see where other games with more goals might be of more interest.

Stats, stats, stats.

The only stat that matters is "Goals Against after One period", and the Flames are kicking ass, allowing only 27 total goals after the first. The Rangers are 2nd with 29 G/A after one. The Oilers, meanwhile, have allowed 48 first period goals. Only Chicago, St.Loius and Pits are worse.

Even MORE important, is that the Flames lead the league in bodychecks by partially injured players in the first half of the 3rd period during weekend games.

The Flames also have the most points from a player whose last name begins with an "I", and most blocked-shots and faceoffs-won by a player whose last name begins with "Y".

(ed. stats may not be correct)

anon.--you're certainly right in your assumption, but the question then must be, is total goals what's most interesting? I assume it is for some people, not for others.

Maybe Ottawa has only played in 10 games where the lead changed, because they score, score, and score again before allowing any. (Likewise with Pittsburgh: getting blown out regularly doesn't correspond with lead changes). Is that more fun to watch? (For a Sens fan - Yes. For others - less so, maybe not at all.)

No doubt about it, the Oilers are brutal in the first period.

Fortunately, they more than make up for it by being dynamite in the 3rd.

It doesn't look bad, because you got the stats wrong.

Never trailed: 12-0-2 (92.9%)
Trailed by 1: 13-13-3
Trailed by 2: 3-9-1
Trailed by 3+: 0-6-0 (0.0%)
Totals: 25-13-5 (64.0%)

Looks like you missed the word "maximum" there, Randy. I was showing the breakdown based on "maximum scoreboard deficit" of 1, 2, 3+, etc..

Guess I should have been more clear.

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