Monday, January 09, 2006
Flames Midpoint Evaluation
Nice. Real nice.
What, you want more? Uh, OK. After going 4-7-2 in October, the Flames then went 21-5-2 over the next 28 to hit the halfway point. That's wins in fully three-quarters of their games, and by my count, 18 were in regulation: only 2 were in shootouts, plus the OT win over Ottawa.
Some of the underlying statistics are frankly awful. A sample, with a bit of mediocrity thrown in:
Tony Amonte and Daymond Langkow have become Calgary Flames. They didn't really fit early on, but they're with the program now, and they're part of the juggernaut. Yelle and Nilson are as good as ever. Huselius and Lombardi give us something we didn't really have last season, and that's hands that can make tough goals look easy, and can create something out of nothing.
The Flames are on track for somewhere between 110 and 115 points, which will translate into 1st or 2nd spot in the conference, and most likely home-ice advantage for as long as they keep winning. Times are good in the C of Red, and there's no good reason to believe that they won't keep rolling. Go Flames.
What, you want more? Uh, OK. After going 4-7-2 in October, the Flames then went 21-5-2 over the next 28 to hit the halfway point. That's wins in fully three-quarters of their games, and by my count, 18 were in regulation: only 2 were in shootouts, plus the OT win over Ottawa.
Some of the underlying statistics are frankly awful. A sample, with a bit of mediocrity thrown in:
- Goal Differential of only +7
- PP% is 18th in the league; our divisional rivals are 6th, 8th, 9th, and 11th
- PK% is 19th in the league; again, worst in our division. This is also an odd and unpleasant stat for a team that nominally operates on a defensive philosophy
- we've also taken more penalties (262) than every other team in the division, another odd and unpleasant stat for a team that prides itself on discipline
- 28th in the league in even-strength Goals For, ahead of only St. Louise and C-Bus
- our top scorer is tied for 64th in the league with 33 points. A 2nd Art Ross Trophy isn't in the cards for Jarome this season.
- 3rd in the league in GAA
- 1st in the league in even-strength GAA, ahead of even the mighty Senators
- Kipper has 6 shutouts, twice as many as the guys in 2nd place
- 5-0-1 v. the East
- 12-3-2 v. the NW Division (that's 4-0-1 v. VAN, 3-1-1 v. EDM, 2-1-0 v. COL, and 3-1-0 v. MIN)
- Did I mention they were 21-5-2 to close out the first half? The fact that I can name every Flames regulation loss since the beginning of November without looking it up makes me very happy (Edmonton, Chicago, L.A., and Nashville twice)
Tony Amonte and Daymond Langkow have become Calgary Flames. They didn't really fit early on, but they're with the program now, and they're part of the juggernaut. Yelle and Nilson are as good as ever. Huselius and Lombardi give us something we didn't really have last season, and that's hands that can make tough goals look easy, and can create something out of nothing.
The Flames are on track for somewhere between 110 and 115 points, which will translate into 1st or 2nd spot in the conference, and most likely home-ice advantage for as long as they keep winning. Times are good in the C of Red, and there's no good reason to believe that they won't keep rolling. Go Flames.
# posted by Matt @ 2:36 pm 
Comments:
Holy crap! You got some extra time on your hands, or what? I should get you to do my taxes.
A simple "Peca sucks" would do.
Great posts, just the same, but I think the only ststs that really matter are WINS, LOSSES, and POINTS.
Worried? You're being sarcastic, right?
The Flames G.D. was -11 after that 4-7-2 start (it was -8 after their 1-3 start). Now it's up to +7; that's a decent swing for their record over that period.
Plus, I just can't account for why the Flames can't, or won't, blow anyone out, ever. Most teams have at least a handful of these to prop up their average at the top end, the Flames do not.
As "things to worry about" go, that's low on the list. We'll see how it all goes in the 2nd half.
Mudcrutch
"The Flames may be good, but they're no Edmonton Oilers."
If you're trying to convince Matt that the Oilers are not as good as the Flames, you're too late. Total points and the season series results so far have confirmed that already.
Not sure where you grabbed the "expected points" regarding Sutter's years of coaching from (expected by whom?), but following the 2001-02 season Sutter became only the second coach in NHL history (Al Arbour) to improve his team's point total for five consecutive seasons.
The Flames had a good year last year (better than the Oilers) and have improved again this year.
As for good or great teams having a small goal differential....
2003-2004
Boston 82(gp) 41(w) 19(L) 15(T)
7(OTL) 104(P) 209(GF) - 188(GA)
1999-2000
Dallas 82(GP) 43(W) 29(L) 10(T)
6(OTL) 102(P) 211-184(GF/A)
The late 90's saw the perrenial powerhouse Colorado finish with a +30ish goal dif. three times.
I don't know if Calgary is an "excellent" team, but they're damned good. They can win without Iggy at his best, or with half the team injured. It's not that they're so much better than other teams (which they aren't, skill-wise), but rather that they're very, very tough to play against and beat.
Plus, one-goal games are way more exciting than blowouts.
Winning, not goal differential, is the Flames' strength.
First of all, Mud is basically right. In accordance with years of numbers than show that 2.8 goal diff = 1 point, the Flames have earned more points than their ability to score and prevent goals. It's not a situation that's particularly tenable or repeatable.
Second of all (that said), this same Poisson model is more limited this year than ever because of the SO. We suspect W/L in the shootout is roughly 'random', but we don't really know yet; we suspect being tied after 60 is a 'random' occurrence as well, but we don't really know that. I like it, but the reductio is slightly absurd to think that the Flames record would 'suit' their GD better if more of their wins had been in shootouts..
But third and most important, the reason I'm not worried is that while you can't escape your GD, you can certainly improve it! I don't really think the Flames are the 28th-best scoring team in the league as of today. Their D and Kipper are still excellent. As such, I think they're going to outscore most of their opponents going forward, and probably have a better GD number while doing it...
ha
When you were talking about "expected points" under Sutter, I thought you meant something in regards to total points (W-L-T). Hey, it was late and I just watched a boring debate on TV - so my brain was shut off.
Anyways, talk all you guys want about goal dif. As long as the Flames keep winning I'm happy. They went to the 7th game of the Stanley cup finals after beating out 3 very, very good teams who each had good goal differential. This year they're first in a tough division and have beat a lot of good teams to get there. Obviously goal dif. isn't a strength that's as important to the Flames as it is to other teams. Defence, goaltending, checking back and forth, boardwork, hard work, etc. etc. are all important strengths that teams need in order to win.
As for other teams that don't have exceptional goal dif. right now yet are doing quite well.....
Buffalo +12 (56 points), Toronto +7 (51 points), Nashville +13 (55 points), Vancouver +6 (51 points), Edmonton +10 (50points),
L.A., Colorado and Carolina are around +20.
Calgary shouldn't be any more worried than any of those teams.
Poisson? I'll pass on the seafood. If you just do a simple linear regress of current points against GD for the whole league, it's easy to spot the major outliers. Biggest overperformers right now are Nashville (+6.1 pts) and Calgary (+6.0 pts). Informally I would regard these teams as due for a downturn, but if you assume that the excess "luck" is nonrandom and heavily dependent on good goaltending, you can exempt Calgary.
Edmonton is right on the dot with points vs. GD: no reason to think they aren't as good as they look.
Shootouts might have that effect. Think of a model where every team's top 3-5 shooters are about equally good, no matter how good the team's overall in-game offense is. Somewhat credible, no? In that event, if there were a persistent nonrandom influence contributed by shootouts, it would be almost 100% goalie-dependent.
That said, Calgary is only 2-3 in shootouts, so obviously you can't exempt them on those particular grounds.
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Holy crap! You got some extra time on your hands, or what? I should get you to do my taxes.
A simple "Peca sucks" would do.
Great posts, just the same, but I think the only ststs that really matter are WINS, LOSSES, and POINTS.
# posted by 
: January 09, 2006 4:07 pm
: January 09, 2006 4:07 pm Worried? You're being sarcastic, right?
The Flames G.D. was -11 after that 4-7-2 start (it was -8 after their 1-3 start). Now it's up to +7; that's a decent swing for their record over that period.
Plus, I just can't account for why the Flames can't, or won't, blow anyone out, ever. Most teams have at least a handful of these to prop up their average at the top end, the Flames do not.
As "things to worry about" go, that's low on the list. We'll see how it all goes in the 2nd half.
Mudcrutch
"The Flames may be good, but they're no Edmonton Oilers."
If you're trying to convince Matt that the Oilers are not as good as the Flames, you're too late. Total points and the season series results so far have confirmed that already.
Not sure where you grabbed the "expected points" regarding Sutter's years of coaching from (expected by whom?), but following the 2001-02 season Sutter became only the second coach in NHL history (Al Arbour) to improve his team's point total for five consecutive seasons.
The Flames had a good year last year (better than the Oilers) and have improved again this year.
As for good or great teams having a small goal differential....
2003-2004
Boston 82(gp) 41(w) 19(L) 15(T)
7(OTL) 104(P) 209(GF) - 188(GA)
1999-2000
Dallas 82(GP) 43(W) 29(L) 10(T)
6(OTL) 102(P) 211-184(GF/A)
The late 90's saw the perrenial powerhouse Colorado finish with a +30ish goal dif. three times.
I don't know if Calgary is an "excellent" team, but they're damned good. They can win without Iggy at his best, or with half the team injured. It's not that they're so much better than other teams (which they aren't, skill-wise), but rather that they're very, very tough to play against and beat.
Plus, one-goal games are way more exciting than blowouts.
Winning, not goal differential, is the Flames' strength.
# posted by : January 09, 2006 10:00 pm
: January 09, 2006 10:00 pm First of all, Mud is basically right. In accordance with years of numbers than show that 2.8 goal diff = 1 point, the Flames have earned more points than their ability to score and prevent goals. It's not a situation that's particularly tenable or repeatable.
Second of all (that said), this same Poisson model is more limited this year than ever because of the SO. We suspect W/L in the shootout is roughly 'random', but we don't really know yet; we suspect being tied after 60 is a 'random' occurrence as well, but we don't really know that. I like it, but the reductio is slightly absurd to think that the Flames record would 'suit' their GD better if more of their wins had been in shootouts..
But third and most important, the reason I'm not worried is that while you can't escape your GD, you can certainly improve it! I don't really think the Flames are the 28th-best scoring team in the league as of today. Their D and Kipper are still excellent. As such, I think they're going to outscore most of their opponents going forward, and probably have a better GD number while doing it...
ha
When you were talking about "expected points" under Sutter, I thought you meant something in regards to total points (W-L-T). Hey, it was late and I just watched a boring debate on TV - so my brain was shut off.
Anyways, talk all you guys want about goal dif. As long as the Flames keep winning I'm happy. They went to the 7th game of the Stanley cup finals after beating out 3 very, very good teams who each had good goal differential. This year they're first in a tough division and have beat a lot of good teams to get there. Obviously goal dif. isn't a strength that's as important to the Flames as it is to other teams. Defence, goaltending, checking back and forth, boardwork, hard work, etc. etc. are all important strengths that teams need in order to win.
As for other teams that don't have exceptional goal dif. right now yet are doing quite well.....
Buffalo +12 (56 points), Toronto +7 (51 points), Nashville +13 (55 points), Vancouver +6 (51 points), Edmonton +10 (50points),
L.A., Colorado and Carolina are around +20.
Calgary shouldn't be any more worried than any of those teams.
# posted by : January 10, 2006 8:54 am
: January 10, 2006 8:54 am Poisson? I'll pass on the seafood. If you just do a simple linear regress of current points against GD for the whole league, it's easy to spot the major outliers. Biggest overperformers right now are Nashville (+6.1 pts) and Calgary (+6.0 pts). Informally I would regard these teams as due for a downturn, but if you assume that the excess "luck" is nonrandom and heavily dependent on good goaltending, you can exempt Calgary.
Edmonton is right on the dot with points vs. GD: no reason to think they aren't as good as they look.
# posted by : January 10, 2006 9:25 am
: January 10, 2006 9:25 am Shootouts might have that effect. Think of a model where every team's top 3-5 shooters are about equally good, no matter how good the team's overall in-game offense is. Somewhat credible, no? In that event, if there were a persistent nonrandom influence contributed by shootouts, it would be almost 100% goalie-dependent.
# posted by : January 10, 2006 10:52 am
: January 10, 2006 10:52 am That said, Calgary is only 2-3 in shootouts, so obviously you can't exempt them on those particular grounds.
# posted by : January 10, 2006 10:59 am
: January 10, 2006 10:59 am Post a Comment
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