Tuesday, September 15, 2009

 

Battle Game Day

Hurray, it's hockey! Though calling it "NHL hockey" might be a stretch, at least looking at the lineup the Flames are icing tonight (7PM MT, web stream). Moss, Boyd, Lundmark, Dawes, and Nystrom are the "veterans" skating against the Oilers at the 'Dome tonight; looks like Quinn is dressing a more traditional preseason mix of vets and hopefuls.

I commented last week at M&G that
I sincerely hope that with the myriad 4th-line-types signed up this offseason, there’s legit competition for those spots, i.e. the org has an open mind about who will be in the Opening Night lineup. I can’t get too jazzed about any given 4th-line trio, but I CAN get jazzed about the idea that the three best performers thru camp/preseason — out of 8 or 9 competitors — get the gig. Depth, in that sense, could be a strength. And the team probably needs it to be one.

In this context, I'm very encouraged by Coach Sutter's roster tonight; looks to me like the beginning of a 15-day Battle Royale for a job at the bottom of the forward corps. Right now there are 7 guys who will certainly dress for every regular season game in which they're healthy: Iginla, Langkow, Jokinen, Conroy, Glencross, Bourque, and Moss. There's another 4 who essentially have jobs, but could conceivably be healthy scratches on occasion (or be punted to the minors if they're really struggling): Boyd, Dawes, Sjostrom and Nystrom.

That leaves 2 spots open for the winning, to my eye, as well as the whole concept of making a good impression and being an early callup when the inevitable injuries come. I typically agree with Tyler's take that your crystal ball need be no more complicated than looking for who has one-way contracts (meaning Prust and McGrattan will be the lucky two), but I think this season might constitute special circumstances.

Last season the team paid Eriksson $1.5M to play in the minors and paid Rhett Warrener ~$2.4M to convalesce from his various injuries/surgeries, just to get down to the cap at the beginning of the season. In other words, they spent a lot of dead money from Day 1. That's not the case this season, and particularly with a new coach, I think that if 1 or 2 borderline guys with 2-way deals make a big impression on Coach Sutter from now until October 1, then GM Sutter will make room for those guys in the big leagues one way or another.

That group is probably represented by: Brett Sutter, David Van der Gulik, Kris Chucko, Kyle Greentree, Jason Jaffray, Jamie Lundmark, Colin Stuart, and Garth Murray.

Greg Nemisz and Mitch Wahl are in that unfortunate Draft+1yr cohort of "Would be Better Off Playing in the AHL, But Have to Go Back to Junior". Very little chance they make the big club.

This leaves the two most interesting hopefuls in camp. Mikael Backlund is... something. He was a good junior player in his stint with Kelowna, but he's not the next Peter Forsberg. He's not even the next Daymond Langkow. But he might well be a quality NHLer. First step, though, is to take the step up to the AHL, and start (continue?) internalizing the fact that he's not going to score enough to hang around the perimeter or be an indifferent two-way player.

The other, of course, is the Little Big Man. I won't hem and haw here: I think his invitation to camp is tremendously exciting, and I'm thrilled for him. I take Tom Benjamin's point that, in the big picture, the Flames might not be doing him any favours, but I'll disagree nonetheless. He's been sober for ~ 4 years, not six months, and has gone through financial and family tribulations in the interim. "Not an emotionally healthy person" is probably true, now and forever, but I guess my sense is that Fleury's not quite as fragile as TB thinks he is. And further, that even if this comeback attempt falls short, it might be more beneficial than detrimental to Fleury's psyche.

At any rate: a wildly successful training camp and preseason for Fleury means a two-way, league min. deal to play in Abbotsford for the Heat. There is zero chance he makes the Flames out of TC. If he looks like he can still play -- even if he looks like he can still help an NHL team -- he'll be sent to the AHL; to see if his body can keep up with the grind for a couple months, to see if he can be effective all over the ice over a larger sample of games, and, yes, to see if he folds under the pressure.

The "Holy Shit, Woo-HOO!!!" Scenario is Fleury scoring 28 points in the first 20 games with the Heat, then coming up to the Flames and adding something to depth and 2nd-unit PP (and of course, getting his name on the Stanley Cup 21 years after the 1st time, but I digress). I think the best-case scenario though, as in, more realistic and something every Fleury fan could cheer for, is:
Fingers crossed, folks.

Comments:

Is there a 3rd team I can cheer for tonight? I don't like this first two options.
 


I'm cheering for an errand Sheldon Souray slapshot taking a carom off of Dustin Boyd's stick, flying into the press box, bouncing off of Kevin Lowe's head into Steve Tambellini and injuring them both precisely enough that they realize they have to offer Scott Howson the entire Rexall Place vault to come back and manage the team.

I mean, it's cheering for something, right?
 


Colin Stuart's on a one-way deal as well, but if any of the one-way guys is vulnerable, it might well be him. He's more likely to clear waivers than Prust, and barring a major change of heart by management, Brian McGrattan likely has made the team irrespective of actual performance.

I share both your good wishes and your reasonable expectations for Theo. I could see a scenario where Abbotsford kicks in some extra dough on the AHL portion of his contract to keep him around for the year. They do have a franchise to build, and he certainly could goose interest. I don't think we'll see him as a regular in the Show again, but I'd like very much to be wrong.
 


Uh, stupid question: you can open up cap room just by sending guys to the minors?

Last season the team paid Eriksson $1.5M to play in the minors and paid Rhett Warrener ~$2.4M to convalesce from his various injuries/surgeries, just to get down to the cap at the beginning of the season.

So if Khabibulin turns into an anchor, you just send him down? Yes, yes he'd have to clear waivers, but is there any doubt?
 


Uh, stupid question: you can open up cap room just by sending guys to the minors?

Correct. Brian Burke had a quote (that I can't find now) 2-3 years ago, saying ~, "There is no salary cap, you're only limited by your ownership's willingness to stash money in the minors."
 


Correct. Brian Burke had a quote (that I can't find now) 2-3 years ago, saying ~, "There is no salary cap, you're only limited by your ownership's willingness to stash money in the minors."


Unless that money is anchored to someone with a NMC. Then you're F'd in the A.
 


Dion Phaneuf is a gutless punk.
 


Feel better now that you have that off your chest, Bruce?
 


I think best case scenario is Fleury somehow improbably picking up in the league where he left off, and racking up 50-60 points on the 3rd or 4th line.

That's extremely blue sky though, but I always liked the little bugger.
 

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