Wednesday, July 16, 2008

 

Scorcoff

What a beautiful day to be an Oilers fan.

I'm a little misty-eyed over here. Carry on.

Comments:

5 point 5 for a 30 year old (by '08 season start) who's NEVER scored 80 points? I don't quite see what all the orgasms are about.
 


Gomez got twice as much and hes only hit over 80 once.

Is gomez twice as good as horcoff?

-Doug
 


Is Horcoff even the Oil's no.1 center in two years? If he's the no.1 center for the full five years, I guess that'll mean that Gagner didn't make the step.
 


80 points is basically a point-a-game, which they don't exactly hand out like confetti.

It's a reasonable contract. Not a bargain, but cheaper than what they would have gotten on the open market, if this off season is anything to go by.
 


Gagner is 18 years old. 18. If he's the number one center in two years, he's Sidney fucking Crosby. I think that a reasonable expectation for Gagner is number one center in 5 seasons, which is exactly when Horcoff's contract starts to scale down in terms of dollars.
 


If he's the number one center in two years, he's Sidney fucking Crosby.

OR Horcoff is Bobby Holik; good two way player, just overpaid, and Gagner gets the No. 1 gig by default. In the 53 games Horcoff played last year the Oil went 23-25-5, in the games without Horcoff the Oil went 18-10-1. Is that a coincidence? Maybe, or maybe its the Ewing theory
 


OR Horcoff is a younger version of post-lockout Rod Brind'amour, outscoring the toughs so that Gagner/Staal can feast on the pussies, and that sounded a lot better in my head.
 


I think Horcoff was definitely the reason Edmonton was not winning. As soon as he was gone Cogliano was free to score back-to-back-to-back overtime winning goals, Roloson was free to make 48 saves to beat San Jose, and Mathieu Roy was free to start concussing people, rather than the other way around.

If he weren't holding this team back, we'd have won Stanley Cups the last four years. What a dick.
 


OR Horcoff is a younger version of post-lockout Rod Brind'amour

A good comp considering the two are usually spoken in the same breath when it comes to conditioning and fitness.
 


And both Horcoff and Brind'Amour look like something you'd find on the bottom of your shoe.
 


Reasoner is gone. Poor Loxy. Poor, poor, Loxy.
 


It's Edmonton so young Gagner should be just about first in line for feasting on pussy.
 


Waitaminute, I though nobody wanted to sign in Edmonton?
 


His numbers bear a striking resemblance to Vinny Prospal's.

Roller coaster the past 4 seasons.

Who knows, maybe he'll keep last season going. Decent contract, a bit long. Nothing too outrageous.
 


Is Horcoff even the Oil's no.1 center in two years? If he's the no.1 center for the full five years, I guess that'll mean that Gagner didn't make the step.

On the other hand, he's not really getting no. 1 centre money even though he was racking up a point per game before the injury last year. So maybe he'll only be the best no. 2 guy in the league in a few years. Boo hoo. I realize Calgarians may not remember any model of a forward corps other than "One superstar dragging around a dozen mediocrities", but we're not exactly shitting bricks about the idea of Horc getting overtaken as a pure offensive player.
 


Did someone compare Horcoff to Prospal? I think I may have heard the worst comp in history.
 


Nice job taking things out of context, Shawn. Their NUMBERS are similar, in that they've been very up and down the past few season. Obviously horcoff is worth more to the team in terms of intangibles and defensive play, but that doesn't invalidate the observation that, as far as production goes, they line up pretty well.

Prospal's numbers:
01-02: 55 pts
02-03: 79 pts
03-04: 54 pts (with anaheim)
05-06: 80 pts
06-07: 55 pts
07-08: 71 pts (split between tampa & philly.)


Horc's:
03-04: 40 pts
05-06: 73 pts
06-07: 51 pts
07-08: 50 pts (in fifty-three games)

Prospal's three years older and a lot worse defensively but has provided better production.

Neither one scores much, with Prospal only recording one thirty goal year (last season) and Horc only scoring at a thirty goal pace once (last season)

Just saying, with only two "good" years recorded, did he quite merit the 5.5 mill, especially when his quality years were sandwiched by pretty mediocre ones?

I should reiterate that I don't HATE the signing, and I don't love it. It was a meh signing. Hardly worth the backflips and hallelujahs the oilogosphere's been trumpeting.
 


Except Horcoff hasn't had a career of up and downs. Prospal's career has been notoriously flaky. Horcoff steadily progressed year after year while adding new elements to his game... but he stumbled a bit one year.

If you look at point per game numbers you can see that it was a steady built with one dip that I can actually explain.

03: 0.42 PPG
04: 0.50 PPG
05: (0.92 PPG in Sweden)
06: 0.92 PPG
07: 0.64 PPG
08: 0.94 PPG

If you use the Dejardins number for Sweden that is pretty much a steady climb in production along with an increased role on the team.

However, there is that dip in 2007. So what happened? I interviewed Horcoff a couple of times after that season. He was not in proper physical condition to start the season. He's a guy that really relies on his conditioning and said it really impacted him to miss so much of his off season training... especially after battling a bunch of little injuries that happen during a cup run.

That happens to a lot of players who were just on runs to the finals.

He told me that midway through the season he finally felt like himself again and was playing back up to the level he had been at the season before.

Hoever, his season went down the tubes again after the trade deadline when the whole team went into the crapper. Who was he playing with at the time? The team was decimated with injuries.

So understanding how 06-07 was basically a divided season... and the rest of his career has shown steady growth... I think the Prospal point total comparison isn't a very good one.

Add to that the fact that Prospal isn't near the two way player Horcoff is... isn't near the physical player Horcoff is... isn't near the leader Horcoff is...

I don't think Horcoff's deal is a steal. I think it's fair market value based on his whole game.

As for Horcoff not being a scorer, those who follow him closely know that before last season he did a couple things to make himself more of a goal scorer.

1) Got a new stick
2) Went to a sports psychologist to try to change his mindset so he would shoot first more often instead of looking for the pass.

His goal scoring totals last year showed a significant jump in production as a result.

06: 0.28 goals per game
07: 0.20 goals per game
08: 0.40 goals per game

He was playing a much more aggressive shooting style last year. You could say a bit of that was a temporary spike, but it seems to me that he's certainly game for 30 goals playing with a guy like Hemsky.

And also don't forget he's a very hard worker who has said he isn't done improving his game. He's constantly trying to add new dimensions.

Totally different players, totally different career paths.
 


Incidently, who can we petition at blogger to give us the right to edit our posts? Damn my typos are awful sometimes.
 


He's a guy that really relies on his conditioning and said it really impacted him to miss so much of his off season training... especially after battling a bunch of little injuries that happen during a cup run.

So..as long as Horcoff doesn't go on another cup run he should be fine. As a Flame fan I can live with that.
 


I think any player would take a slow start to the following regular season if they got a cup run.
 


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